First Group: General Discussion

[F Great Eastern]

First Support Services was approx $10m.

Check out the conference call at:
http://www.firstgroup.com/assets/media/investors/pre_close_trading_update_Q4_March_2013_audio.mp3

 

[overthewater]

First Support Services was approx $10m.

Check out the conference call at:
http://www.firstgroup.com/assets/media/investors/pre_close_trading_update_Q4_March_2013_audio.mp3

Cheers

 

[Surreyman]

All they said in the conference call for analysts today was that their disposal target had been achieved and that they were not planning any major exits like London.

Having listened to the Conf' call, it is interesting that the disposal of the London business (except Dagenham)will result in future margins in UK Bus reaching 11% after the disposals i.e the (Regulated)London business was low margin compared to the rest (De-regulated)business.

 

[transmanche]

Having listened to the Conf' call, it is interesting that the disposal of the London business (except Dagenham)will result in future margins in UK Bus reaching 11% after the disposals i.e the (Regulated)London business was low margin compared to the rest (De-regulated)business.

I think that's probably true of all the major bus groups.

According to Go-Ahead's 2012 report; the margin for regulated bus operations was 9.2%, compared with 11.3% for deregulated bus operations. (And an overall margin of 10.2%.)

Of course the regulated bus market offers less risk for a lower margin - i.e. security of income (for the life of the contract) - plus not having to worry about marketing, ticket pricing, etc.

 

[332 > 444]

Its notable the price difference between the two separate London disposals, obviously Metroline have acquired the best bits given that there are only 94 (20%) buses difference between the two deals, but Metroline have paid over 2.5 times what Transit Systems have...... Obviously the former Centrewest part of First London was still the most profitable
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


I think Stagecoach will now buy Dagenham at a knock down price, given that they have already won half its Pvr through the tendering process, its unlikey to be of interest to anyone else

Although Transit Systems have got Wesbourne Park and Atlas Road garages of Centrewest which both have a lot of zone 1 high PVR of routes. The high PVR routes of the remaining garages are about 4.

Lea Interchange also has a few central London routes all won from Stagecoach.

Dagenham will only have a handful of routes as Stagecoach has all but cleared them out, surprised they haven't been sold to Stagecoach, GA or Arriva.

 

[Ivo]

I think that's probably true of all the major bus groups.

According to Go-Ahead's 2012 report; the margin for regulated bus operations was 9.2%, compared with 11.3% for deregulated bus operations. (And an overall margin of 10.2%.)

Of course the regulated bus market offers less risk for a lower margin - i.e. security of income (for the life of the contract) - plus not having to worry about marketing, ticket pricing, etc.

Are there any figures for Go-Ahead without (or exclusively with) their apparent cash cow Brighton & Hove?

 

[radamfi]

Are there any figures for Go-Ahead without (or exclusively with) their apparent cash cow Brighton & Hove?

I wouldn't underestimate the profitability of Go North East, which is twice the size of Brighton & Hove. Poole probably makes quite a few quid too.

 

[transmanche]

Are there any figures for Go-Ahead without (or exclusively with) their apparent cash cow Brighton & Hove?

Only revenue (£54.6m), passengers journeys (48m) and average employees (1,144).

See the report for other subsidiaries.

 

[overthewater]

First Support Services was approx $10m.

Check out the conference call at:
http://www.firstgroup.com/assets/media/investors/pre_close_trading_update_Q4_March_2013_audio.mp3

"12 - 24 Months before were see any impact in the numbers" Do there mean growth and profits? What about all the shabby areas which have had nothing? Good to see in the North: 2.7 % growth, Its not hard to be honset, while the South: 2% growth

Good to see the broad not ruling anything in or out, in selling off operations, of course if every rumors was true first would have nothing

 

[Surreyman]

Although Transit Systems have got Wesbourne Park and Atlas Road garages of Centrewest which both have a lot of zone 1 high PVR of routes. The high PVR routes of the remaining garages are about 4.

Lea Interchange also has a few central London routes all won from Stagecoach.

Dagenham will only have a handful of routes as Stagecoach has all but cleared them out, surprised they haven't been sold to Stagecoach, GA or Arriva.

Dagenham has a @20 buses worth of school contracts, plus 3 routes due to stay, may stay, linked to First Essex management.

 

[mbonwick]

The way things have been phrased, I'd expect Dagenham to be closed, with the work moving to Lea Interchange or similar.

Also - expect further disposals as the phrase "we'll exceed our £100m" was mentioned in answer to a question

 

[winston270twm]

The way things have been phrased, I'd expect Dagenham to be closed, with the work moving to Lea Interchange or similar.

Also - expect further disposals as the phrase "we'll exceed our £100m" was mentioned in answer to a question

I think they'll offload what work remains at Dagenham to Stagecoach London.

I expect First will sell off further small scale operations with elderly fleets in a bid to raise more funds, the end result being First will have its core areas in the big cities i.e. Bristol, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Glasgow, Aberdeen etc

The city is still forecasting a dividend cut with the May year end results announcement, there may still need to be a right issue to raise circa £450million to improve the company's balance sheet/reduce debt levels. They could always sell off Greyhound or Transit in USA which would raise in excess of that figure, but I think that is unlikely particularly Transit.

 

[overthewater]

The way things have been phrased, I'd expect Dagenham to be closed, with the work moving to Lea Interchange or similar.

Also - expect further disposals as the phrase "we'll exceed our £100m" was mentioned in answer to a question

Did he really say that? I never notice, I'll have listen back. So more doubt will linger over first, bit the same areas keep getting flagged.

 

[tripleseis]

Although Transit Systems have got Wesbourne Park and Atlas Road garages of Centrewest which both have a lot of zone 1 high PVR of routes. The high PVR routes of the remaining garages are about 4.

I would've assumed those garages would've gone to Metroline considering they're in their patch so to speak.

 

[winston270twm]

I would've assumed those garages would've gone to Metroline considering they're in their patch so to speak.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't First London go in cheap with its tender bids to win the 25, 26 & 30 off Stagecoach London? i.e. the work at Lea Interchange isn't that profitable, therefore First may have had to lump in some of the more profitable former Centrewest work to make that part of the deal more attractive. You only have to look at the difference in sale prices to see who acquired the best bits, even without AS & X, Metroline will now have the vast majority of routes in NW London with reduced competition for future tender bids

 

[BuhSnarf]

So what does first have left in London?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

 

[winston270twm]

So what does first have left in London?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

A Pvr of 84 buses from Dagenham.

That will be halved once Stagecoach London take over some of its routes recently won on tender

 

[chiltern trev]

A Pvr of 84 buses from Dagenham.

That will be halved once Stagecoach London take over some of its routes recently won on tender

So what does that mean for First in Slough whose registered address was Paddington?

 

[overthewater]

So what does that mean for First in Slough whose registered address was Paddington?

The registration address might get moved to Southampton? or Essex?

 

[Deerfold]

So what does that mean for First in Slough whose registered address was Paddington?

Given it's not a garage address and FGW operate into Paddington it may not need any changes to be made.

 

[overthewater]

First is still short of it total by 3m

 

[Volvodart]

No it is not, as they have sold assets like Linlithgow and Barnstaple depots. The £100 million was always to be raised by a mix of asset and business sales. As the asset sale information is not readily available, the press seem to have forgotten about this element.

 

[overthewater]

No it is not, as they have sold assets like Linlithgow and Barnstaple depots. The £100 million was always to be raised by a mix of asset and business sales. As the asset sale information is not readily available, the press seem to have forgotten about this element.

So the real reason for killing of linlihgow comes out at last.

 

[mbonwick]

Linlithgow will have made a few hundred thousand pounds at most - it's a tiny little place. I doubt it was part of the £100m and was more a common sense move that would have happened anyway.

Barnstaple will probably have cost money to close as all the staff were made redundant.

 

[overthewater]

This could be the last nail in the coffin.

PF1076118/27 - UNO BUSES (NORTHAMPTON LTD) LTD T/A UNO, GYPSY MOTH AVENUE, HATFIELD, AL10 9BS*
Registration Accepted
Starting Point: NORTHAMPTON UNIVERSITY, PARK CAMPUS
Finish Point: RECTORY FARM ESTATE
Via:*
Service Number: 21
Service Type: Normal Stoppings
Effective Date: 03-JUN-2013
Other Details:

 

[Volvodart]

Linlithgow will have made a few hundred thousand pounds at most - it's a tiny little place. I doubt it was part of the £100m and was more a common sense move that would have happened anyway.

Barnstaple will probably have cost money to close as all the staff were made redundant.

Linilithgow was up for sale for offers over £1 million a while back and Barrnstaple was for sale for over £500,000.

 

[83G/84D]

Linilithgow was up for sale for offers over £1 million a while back and Barrnstaple was for sale for over £500,000.

In Cornwall the old long closed First garage at St Austell was up for auction recently with an guide price of £400k.

 

[markie73]

This could be the last nail in the coffin.

PF1076118/27 - UNO BUSES (NORTHAMPTON LTD) LTD T/A UNO, GYPSY MOTH AVENUE, HATFIELD, AL10 9BS*
Registration Accepted
Starting Point: NORTHAMPTON UNIVERSITY, PARK CAMPUS
Finish Point: RECTORY FARM ESTATE
Via:*
Service Number: 21
Service Type: Normal Stoppings
Effective Date: 03-JUN-2013
Other Details:

The first move by Unobus to compete with First Northampton then?, I'm surprised that they have not made a move before now.

Still nothing from First confirming which services will stay or go in Northampton infact all has gone quiet again recently.

 

[DunsBus]

In Cornwall the old long closed First garage at St Austell was up for auction recently with an guide price of £400k.

Dalkeith depot was in the process of being demolished last week, a year to the very week that the announcement was made which sealed its fate as an operational depot. It has been sold to Morrisons who are building a new supermarket on the site.

 

[MK Tom]

This could be the last nail in the coffin.

PF1076118/27 - UNO BUSES (NORTHAMPTON LTD) LTD T/A UNO, GYPSY MOTH AVENUE, HATFIELD, AL10 9BS*
Registration Accepted
Starting Point: NORTHAMPTON UNIVERSITY, PARK CAMPUS
Finish Point: RECTORY FARM ESTATE
Via:*
Service Number: 21
Service Type: Normal Stoppings
Effective Date: 03-JUN-2013
Other Details:

Pretty long-ass way of getting to the Eastern District, going via Park Campus. I wouldn't call this a serious threat to the 2. It looks more like a service to help university students that take up cheap residences in Lumbertubs and Rectory Farm and all those fine estates.