First Group: General Discussion

[tbtc]

Most of the routes are controlled routes which mean there cant do much with them

First can't do much with them, but presumably any new company would have free reign (since the "monopoly" of operating ScotRail wouldn't be an issue)?

 

[overthewater]

First can't do much with them, but presumably any new company would have free reign (since the "monopoly" of operating ScotRail wouldn't be an issue)?

Bingo, So any new company could operate routes where people actually want go, instead of doing route which have been told must operate by the OFT.

 

[robertclark125]

Winstons right about RATP being smaller than First. My thought was linked to Cowie being smaller than Britsh Bus, but then going out and buying British Bus (now Arriva). It's possible, but with risks.

 

[vicbury]

First Somerset
Every other company ( bar one) on the list that was published by PT has all been sold off. Has somerset had new buses? has it had new livery?

Of course could this be RED Hearing in the list to confuse or maybe district the public to all allow first to get on with selling off something else in private?

* 15/8 Any of the depots

I highly doubt that any of the Somerset depots will be sold off. New liveries have appeared at Bath, Hengrove (Bristol), Lawrence Hill (Bristol) and Weston-super-Mare. Not sure about Taunton and Bridgwater as I never travel that way. Brand new Enviro 200s and 400Hs have just been introduced in Bath and I'm told by a source who really ought to know that more new buses are on the way to Bath in April.

The new livery in Bristol, Bath and Somerset features 'West of England' branding, suggesting that First are seeking to develop an integrated network across the region. Indeed in recent months they have been pushing the Southwest tickets which allow unlimited travel in Bristol, Somerset and Wiltshire. They have upped their game marketing-wise with advertising displayed next to the doors on every bus encouraging people to upgrade to weekly or monthly tickets instead of singles. Finally they have various partnerships with councils round here to improve bus services which have paid dividends in recent years.

I'd definitely say they are in Bristol and Somerset for the long haul. My odds would be 200/1!

 

[swifty]

Taunton also has the new livery, and all FBSA depots have the new ticket machines. Wales and West are also in the process of receiving 20 Volvo B7TL/Wright Gemini from London, the first two already at Hengrove with Somerset & Avon legals, http://flic.kr/p/dKeFEA.

From what I've heard Weymouth is also safe and is due investment this year, so that only leaves Yeovil at risk.

 

[BuhSnarf]

As far as I'm aware we still have no new livery in Leicester. They have had new ticket machines in the past couple of years but not sure if they're the new first group ones...

Maybe there is something to be said about Leicester and Northampton being sold together?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

 

[markie73]

As far as I'm aware we still have no new livery in Leicester. They have had new ticket machines in the past couple of years but not sure if they're the new first group ones...

Maybe there is something to be said about Leicester and Northampton being sold together?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

Northampton is not due to receive the new First livery or any new new buses, so maybe there is a 'plan' in place to sell Leicester and include Northampton? didn't First Leicester and First Northampton have a close working relationship over the years?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I fear that the St.James site is just too central to remain a bus depot and even if First remained in Northampton I can see them moving to an edge of town industrial site and the depot being turned over to one of the supermarket chains. It is probably the most valuable asset of the Northampton operation.

I may be wrong on this but First does not own the St.James depot, First sold the depot a few years ago and now lease it back.

I bet First regret that move now as the land the depot covers must be worth a good few million!.

 

[A0]

First in Northampton:
The Company has reported approx £50'000 in losses. There still no sign in new livery or new buses.
* Betting withdrawn: For it to close down,
* 5/1: For the Depot to be sold off or with Leicester

I don't know how you're assessing your odds etc, but First have stated that the Northampton operation is up for sale. Which probably explains why it's had virtually all of it's fleet exchanged with older vehicles from other parts of the First empire (Eastern Counties mainly, but not exclusively) and no investment in new ticket machines etc.

It doesn't naturally sit with First any longer - it's a long way from their other operations and has been progressively scaled back.

How you can assert 5/1 odds on it being sold with Leicester is beyond me. Yes, they may be able to sell Leicester and Northampton together, but even then there's 40 miles separating them, which is too far to gain economies of scale (i.e. sharing maintenance facilities etc), so effectively they're two separate operations and would need to be run as such.

In terms of who 'may be interested' logically:

Uno may be interested in expanding, but given they're a relatively new entrant into the Northampton market it's a bit too soon to say.

Centrebus may be interested - and they have other operations which are closer than Leicester.

Arriva may be interested - but they don't seem to have much work in the Northampton area any longer, but they do have MK covered now and MK is closer than Leicester.

Stagecoach - would probably like to take over the routes - they wouldn't want the vehicles as it would massively age the profile of their fleet in Northampton. Their biggest problem is it would give SC a virtual monopoly in Northampton and attract the interest of the competition authorities.

 

[alexf380]

From what I've been told, Lothian won't touch Livingston.

Perhaps E&M Horsburgh could expand and take Livingston's operations

 

[radamfi]

How you can assert 5/1 odds on it being sold with Leicester is beyond me.

To be fair, he did give odds for a sale on its own OR together with Leicester. Most people seem to thing however that the Northampton operation will merely be closed down like North Devon, hence that is why he has withdrawn the betting for that occurrence.

 

[A0]

To be fair, he did give odds for a sale on its own OR together with Leicester. Most people seem to thing however that the Northampton operation will merely be closed down like North Devon, hence that is why he has withdrawn the betting for that occurrence.

Yes, but on what is he basing his "odds" ?

Is the OP an professional bookmaker? If he is and has access to the facts then quoting odds is a perfectly acceptable thing to do.

If, as I suspect, he's neither then frankly it's meaningless - and misleading.

 

[radamfi]

The odds are just a bit of fun. I actually did query his odds earlier on in the thread as I thought they were too long and as a result he shortened most of them. I'm happy for him to continue providing these odds for entertainment value. At the very least, it provides a regular concise summary of the operators more likely to be sold based on the consensus of the thread. Presumably no one is actually betting real money!

 

[overthewater]

See someone complained the odds were to high, now there two low If you have noticed the first listed created and so on.. chester NOR Wigan were ever included since we know there were going to get the boot, Northampton is different kettle of fish if still being operated.

Put its this way its ALOT cheaper for first to pass on Northampton than to close it down. Dalkeith cost First about £1m in losses with its closure,( If you look for such details you will found them) Do you really think first wants to spend money on closing it down when there can just pan it off? Another reason why old stock is getting transferred in , no new ticket machines etc is to try and cut cost.

First are having real difficultly trying to sell it, It continues making losses. If your Trying to sell something off you have to given a buyer something decent, Ie some newer buses or a depot there can kept hold off, which happened in other sell off, look at Redditch at least there 6 years old buses. Northampton has no newish buses or long term depot, its kinda worthless.

Leicester has been running Northampton for years and just recently its head office operations being run from chelmsford. Just because its out the way mean nothing. Travel Dundee out the way... Preston bus is out the way....

Im not Professional bookie, but I have asked mine for some advice, and there have explained a few bits and bob about how to place everything, and to make sure the Descriptions IE “THE FORM” are well placed with details.

I have based odd on FACTS, such as Accounts details, reports in the media, Rumors, information on the ground etc which is what Bookmakers do, Ie in Dog race, if one good been in a good form for the last two races ie winning or coming second within half a sec then there higher chance it could win this time, Also the track it in also important.

Northampton could have been sold off with Redditch , that just as close..

Perhaps E&M Horsburgh could expand and take Livingston's operations

* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fK5WnU75naQ
* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh2sWSVRrmo

 

[Sandy Drew]

Hey OverTheWater, you're clearly keeping a close eye on the disposal programme - and giving us all plenty to discuss.

When you quote financial info, some is in ££s whilst others appear as %'s, which is a little confusing for comparison.

If I may, can I supplement your statements with some additional facts?

First Beeline doesn't contribute the greatest operating profit in terms of £s - by far and away the greatest amount of profit added to group is by West Yorkshire - in the last FY way ahead of Manchester, Centrewest and Glasgow (No1).

Think I've previously mentioned that the biggest operating losses were incurred by First Glasgow (No2), First Scotland East, First Devon & Cornwall - but also by First Capital East (Dagenham).

Whilst we can make assumptions based on last FY profit contribution of the business unit, as has been mentioned in the thread before (think it was radamfi) there will be good and bad operations in each unit which will have adverse effect on the total unit profitability. As an example, the 2 depots sold yesterday (Redditch and Kidderminster) reported a loss, but when coupled with Hereford and Worcester the Midland Red Ltd combined business unit made a reasonable operating profit given the geography of the territory.

The next 11 months will certainly be interesting - but the FD of Firstgroup did say that while the plan was for the disposal plan to be complete by the end of the year, it will take longer should it be required to achieve the right deal for Firstgroup.

They also acknowledge the inquiry of the OFT into the Stagecoach acquisition of Wigan, cautioning that some disposals may now take longer to complete.

And one final note, they still need to raise £80m from UK bus disposals (Northumberland Park isn't included in the total £100m!), and no other FirstGroup businesses are being considered for disposal.

Hope this helps.

 

[Mutant Lemming]

I bet First regret that move now as the land the depot covers must be worth a good few million!.

If that is the case it seems like First weren't intending to stay at the depot in the long term. Are the old empty transport offices at the corner now listed ?

 

[bb21]

didn't First Leicester and First Northampton have a close working relationship over the years?

Northampton used to be managed from Leicester iirc, hence sharing the same ticket rolls.

 

[MCW]

I hope First leave Leicester, won't be a big loss to us. Be nice to have buses which are crap and smell awful with the crime of paying £1.90 single for the privilege!

3/1 sounds hopeful, Be interesting to see what happens in the nest 3 months.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Northampton used to be managed from Leicester iirc, hence sharing the same ticket rolls.

This is correct, and also as such this used to mean the frequent allocation transfer of vehicles between Leicester and Northampton, Quite often, we would send the odd Dominator over for a week or two and we also had a few of their vehicles for a while, etc.

 

[markie73]

I don't know how you're assessing your odds etc, but First have stated that the Northampton operation is up for sale. Which probably explains why it's had virtually all of it's fleet exchanged with older vehicles from other parts of the First empire (Eastern Counties mainly, but not exclusively) and no investment in new ticket machines etc.

It doesn't naturally sit with First any longer - it's a long way from their other operations and has been progressively scaled back.

How you can assert 5/1 odds on it being sold with Leicester is beyond me. Yes, they may be able to sell Leicester and Northampton together, but even then there's 40 miles separating them, which is too far to gain economies of scale (i.e. sharing maintenance facilities etc), so effectively they're two separate operations and would need to be run as such.

In terms of who 'may be interested' logically:

Uno may be interested in expanding, but given they're a relatively new entrant into the Northampton market it's a bit too soon to say.

Centrebus may be interested - and they have other operations which are closer than Leicester.

Arriva may be interested - but they don't seem to have much work in the Northampton area any longer, but they do have MK covered now and MK is closer than Leicester.

Stagecoach - would probably like to take over the routes - they wouldn't want the vehicles as it would massively age the profile of their fleet in Northampton. Their biggest problem is it would give SC a virtual monopoly in Northampton and attract the interest of the competition authorities.

The only way Stagecoach would get their grubby mitts into First Northampton is if First pulls the plug and walks away, though look at the number of ex-First routes Stagecoach has acquired in Northampton over the past few years....and given that they have purchased a large number of First depots in other regions could Northampton be the next piece of the jigsaw and could Stagecoach and First go to the OFT hand in hand with their plans?.

As mentioned in a previous post Uno operates local bus services in St.Albans as well as a expanding university bus network in Northampton, Uno want to expand further so could they make a move on the First operation?, Uno was in line to acquire at least two existing First Northampton routes recently but nothing ever became of that.

Centrebus have been 'rumored' to have held talks with First regarding Northampton but the word is that Centrebus backed down as the price First wanted was not realistic, make of that what you will!!.

Arriva did until a few years ago (or maybe less if somebody can correct me) took over the MK Metro service between MK and Northampton but that was only shortlived before the service went to Z&S, Northampton could be a nice fit for Arriva given the close proximity to Milton Keynes.

 

[bb21]

I hope First leave Leicester, won't be a big loss to us. Be nice to have buses which are crap and smell awful with the crime of paying £1.90 single for the privilege, for the same journeys that Arriva charge £1.40 or £1.80.

Completed that for you.

 

[markie73]

Completed that for you.

First in Northampton has also increased the price of a single fare to £2.20 as well as hikes in their day and weekly tickets, well Northampton still has two gleaming Gemini's (though for how much longer is anybody's guess) a few surviving Citybuses and a job lot of knackered floliners as well!!

 

[MCW]

Completed that for you.

Cheers! you are right though!

in fact I was still charged £1.70 on the 86 from Centre to Lothair road stop, and it's the same price to town from the Hughenden stop nearly opposite.

and the Arriva Drivers are a lot more friendly as well (well with me they are, not sure about anyone else )

 

[DunsBus]

Galashiels seems to be safe, it's just had an influx of 10 new E300s and has in the last few months started repaints into the new livery. Done so far are Gemini 37133, Scanias 65743/4 (with 65742 currently away for repainting and Volvo 69263. I doubt that Galashiels would have commenced repaints if they'd been on the list of depots to be sold.

As yet none of the repainted vehicles or the new arrivals have had area fleetnames applied. However the E300s do have the stickers on the sides saying that they are looked after by the Galashiels depot team.

I also understand that Livingston has been given two months to turn things round so any sell-off would be unlikely before the end of March.

First have been quoted in CBW as saying that they are looking to win back business lost to small operators in its territory under the Lockhead regime. One of the main beneficaries in my neck of the woods (Munro's of Jedburgh) has been in the news recently as it has had its O-licence revoked from the end of March, and one of its directors disqualified from holding an operators licence for two years, after it loaned several of its discs to an operator in the Edinburgh area (this operator too has been similarly punished). They have also been fined but the amount to be paid is dependent on Munro's financial standing, which I gather is not good. Should they cease trading then First would be well-placed to step in and pick up the pieces - this is still ongoing so we can only wait and see.

Another possibility mentioned in the CBW is of combining the two Scotland East licences into one (presumably this would also mean an end to the use of exact-fare vaults at the Edinburgh-area depots) and of having local management making decisions rather than Aberdeen making them with its "one-size-fits-all" attitude.

 

[overthewater]

What issues was that in?

 

[DunsBus]

What issues was that in?

The one out the week before last, if that's any help.

 

[overthewater]

The one out the week before last, if that's any help.

That will make it the 9th January then, just ashame there dont hold back copies on the website.

cheers for that.

 

[tbtc]

Another possibility mentioned in the CBW is of combining the two Scotland East licences into one (presumably this would also mean an end to the use of exact-fare vaults at the Edinburgh-area depots) and of having local management making decisions rather than Aberdeen making them with its "one-size-fits-all" attitude

This does make me think that any operation that survives the "cull" will be in a much better position in the future (with a bit more local autonomy).

No other big bus company has been run from HQ in the way that First has. No other big bus company has faced the same problems that First has. No coincidence.

 

[DunsBus]

This does make me think that any operation that survives the "cull" will be in a much better position in the future (with a bit more local autonomy).

No other big bus company has been run from HQ in the way that First has. No other big bus company has faced the same problems that First has. No coincidence.

Items such as fares increases etc have been decided by HQ rather than by local management with little or no thought for the effect on each locality. It's hardly surprising that passengers in areas such as West Lothian have been facing hefty increases year after year while service standards have gradually been declining in that time. Some of the explanations given for late running or services not turning up (e.g. "the bus allocated to the journey was used on a school run due to a vehicle shortage") have been on a par with the old "the dog ate my homework" excuse which used to do the rounds in schools up and down the land and would surely have put British Rail to shame.

 

[Deerfold]

The only way Stagecoach would get their grubby mitts into First Northampton is if First pulls the plug and walks away.

Why's that? First seem to have been happy to sell to Stagecoach elsewhere.

 

[MK Tom]

First in Northampton has also increased the price of a single fare to £2.20 as well as hikes in their day and weekly tickets, well Northampton still has two gleaming Gemini's (though for how much longer is anybody's guess) a few surviving Citybuses and a job lot of knackered floliners as well!!

Contrasted with what fare from Stagecoach? All of Northampton's fares are frankly shocking, except Z&S and Meridian. Z&S have discovered the secret of paint though which is more than can be said for Thompson. Err I mean Meridian.

 

[Scania3379man]

http://www.busandcoach.com/newspage.aspx?id=7423&categoryid=0

Here you go.

Martyn