First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

No, Q3 interim management statement is duethis thurs (24th)

Followed by full year results in 31st March

http://www.firstgroup.com/corporate/investors/calendar.php

Not sure what you mean by the two pieces of trading statements comment

You don't want to published two pieces which could in turn make one of the piece be forgotten about, If I was first I would want to make sure every piece counted to boost shares.

 

[winston270twm]

You don't want to published two pieces which could in turn make one of the piece be forgotten about, If I was first I would want to make sure every piece counted to boost shares.

Ah, I see what you're saying....

To be honest, I doubt any further news on UK bus disposals will have much impact on the share price, the market will be more interested in the contents of the statement to see if the profitability at the various divisions is on target/improving

 

[Volvodart]

The new issue of Route One Magazine reports that RATP Dev UK has appointed an Area Director North despite having no operations in the north, prompting speculation that it may be interested in some of First's UK bus business.

 

[overthewater]

The new issue of Route One Magazine reports that RATP Dev UK has appointed an Area Director North despite having no operations in the north, prompting speculation that it may be interested in some of First's UK bus business.

I wonder what it could be, What up for sale in the north? I would very like FSE being kept by First, I'm not sure about This lot. Saying that RATP meaning of North means it could well be somewhere in England? Northampton, Leicester.

In the same issues, First are having to make £500M rights issues, plus it shares had dropped 8%.

 

[Volvodart]

1. http://online.hemscottir.com/servle...87488977&ir_client_id=2899&transform=newsitem

2. http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/rotala/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=182&newsid=306996


1. First has announcd the sale of their Kidderminster and Redditch bus businesses to Rotala PLC for a gross consideration of GBP1.5m.



2. Rotala plc

("Rotala" or "the Company")



Acquisition in Worcestershire



Rotala is pleased to announce the acquisition from First Group Plc ("First") of certain of their bus operations in Worcestershire. Rotala will acquire, for a cash consideration of £1.5 million, two freehold depots, one in Kidderminster and the other in Redditch, 36 vehicles, and various items of plant and equipment, and will continue to run the services that First currently operate from these depots (the "Acquisition").



The Kidderminster depot comprises a site of some two acres and was purpose built in 2001. It can accommodate up to 60 vehicles. The Redditch depot, built about 35 years ago, has a slightly smaller useable area and can accommodate about 50 vehicles. In the year ended 30 June 2012, these depots reported combined revenues of approximately £5.2 million and an operating loss of £0.27 million. They employ about 120 staff.



The Acquisition will enable the Company to expand and consolidate its position in those areas of Worcestershire which are contiguous to its main areas of operation in the Birmingham conurbation. By integrating these acquired depots into its current depot network, the Company will be able to take advantage of operating efficiencies generated by the Acquisition.



The Acquisition is not expected to have a material impact on earnings in the current financial year. Once the integration of operations and overheads has been fully implemented, the Acquisition is expected to have a beneficial effect on earnings in the following years. On the basis of the information available at present the Acquisition is expected to generate a small amount of negative goodwill.

 

[overthewater]

Everyone got that wrong. So that bank loan was to expand.

 

[winston270twm]

Everyone got that wrong. So that bank loan was to expand.

I don't personally see how the deal can be allowed to be passed by the Oft, Rotala will no doubt move its existing fleet / staff in to First Wyvern's bigger premises, and this will no doubt result in a reduction of overlapping services, frequency cuts & fare hikes. I don't see how this deal will be good for the people of Redditch. Also Rotala are only acquiring 36 buses from First the combined fleet of KR & RH is around 51, I suspect some of the 15 buses difference will be lost in the process consolidating services.......

Does that now make the disposal proceeds around £29 Million, still way, way off the £100 Million they quoted 12 months ago

 

[Tomonthetrain]

Odds on the office of fair trading investigating as Rotala would have a monopoly in Redditch???

 

[overthewater]

Its possibly First and Rotala went to the OFT/CC to get a judgement before the deal? its been done before first asking them for it to be cleared.

And if you wondered WHY I kept asking about the new ticket machines..... there was talk but nothing to back it up, its like the other one with something in the south west, its just talk.

It does not look good for Northampton, I get the feeling if Rotala were after it there would have brought it at the same time as these two. Again could it be a straight close down or clamp on with something else?

What about First Scotland East? ...... The other £70M,..... and will other two lost making companies also hit the bucket before 1st April to clear First of all lost making depots.

 

[robertclark125]

Surely you would say that you went to the OFT in the press release though? Anyway, the fact that there's a 15 vehicle shortage in the sale may be nothing; Rotala has been advertising on some bus websites that it has a large amount of vehicles for sale. So, they can easily cover the 15 vehicle shortage no bother!

Mind you, all this midlands expansion is beginning to leave Preston Bus out on a limb, despite the recent investment.

 

[overthewater]

Surely you would say that you went to the OFT in the press release though? Anyway, the fact that there's a 15 vehicle shortage in the sale may be nothing; Rotala has been advertising on some bus websites that it has a large amount of vehicles for sale. So, they can easily cover the 15 vehicle shortage no bother!

Mind you, all this midlands expansion is beginning to leave Preston Bus out on a limb, despite the recent investment.

Did there announces the fact there went to the OFT when First brought over hutchison back in 2008?

 

[robertclark125]

I don't know, but when First bought Great Yarmouth Transport back in the late 1990s, they did put it in the press release. Of course, if anyone wants to know, I suppose we could ask the OFT via a freedom of information request act query!

 

[overthewater]

I don't know, but when First bought Great Yarmouth Transport back in the late 1990s, they did put it in the press release. Of course, if anyone wants to know, I suppose we could ask the OFT via a freedom of information request act query!

http://online.hemscottir.com/servle...18522377&ir_client_id=2899&transform=newsitem

 

[winston270twm]

Surely you would say that you went to the OFT in the press release though? Anyway, the fact that there's a 15 vehicle shortage in the sale may be nothing; Rotala has been advertising on some bus websites that it has a large amount of vehicles for sale. So, they can easily cover the 15 vehicle shortage no bother!

Mind you, all this midlands expansion is beginning to leave Preston Bus out on a limb, despite the recent investment.

What Midlands expansion? Diamond as whole have been contracting year on year due to route withdrawals / contract losses etc. The fleet is the smallest its been under Rotala ownership. That is one of the reasons they have so many elderly Darts for sale

There is no way Rotala will keep the current Red Diamonds fleet & merge it with Wyvern's RH fleet without a reduction in the number of buses, there is overlap on all main RH services. Passengers numbers do not justify the number of buses, once First is out the way, it will be frequency reductions etc

 

[overthewater]

I take it the Rotala will keep the best buses and sell of the crap. OF course if your running two ten min services why keep both :P

 

[winston270twm]

I take it the Rotala will keep the best buses and sell of the crap. OF course if your running two ten min services why keep both :P

They're not going to, that's my point. The 57/58 is currently operated by both First & Red Diamond on a 10 min frequency, if Rotala take over you can bet the frequency will be increased on the 57/58 to say every 7/8 mins when operated by the much larger Red Diamond business so the passengers think that they're getting a better service, but overall this will save Rotala a number of buses on the Pvr when the competition has gone

 

[overthewater]

I shall be updating the odds shortly.

Redditch at 12/5 for a Sell off, got you a decent return :P

 

[Mutant Lemming]

Now that Uno has a foothold in Northampton I wonder whether they would be interested in First's operation ? They have managed quite well in operating town services in St.Albans so the step from university services to a town network wouldn't be new to them.

 

[overthewater]

I'm more interested in how the addition £70million will be raised.

 

[markie73]

Now that Uno has a foothold in Northampton I wonder whether they would be interested in First's operation ? They have managed quite well in operating town services in St.Albans so the step from university services to a town network wouldn't be new to them.

Uno was supposed to be taking several of First Northampton's services as I understand it but nothing ever became of that, it would not surprise me if Uno and Stagecoach pitched in for existing services IF First decided to withdraw the Northampton operation.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

It does not look good for Northampton, I get the feeling if Rotala were after it there would have brought it at the same time as these two. Again could it be a straight close down or clamp on with something else?

I hope that First does not pull the plug on Northampton as it will be very sad ending to a once proud operation that was Northampton Transport, Hopefully another operator will save them.

 

[overthewater]

So with Redditch and Kidderminster gone that changes the odd, It was pointed out there had no new ticket machines, and that was the best pin pointer something was afoot.

Three rumors keep popping up but its seems there can never say stay straight, which makes them rather hard to accept:

* First Scotland East Depot
* South Wales
* South West of England.

Also as its been reported: RATP Dev has appointed "Steve Whiteway" as the new Area Director North. The only thing in the north is Manchester trams.

Statement: RATP continues to consider new opportunities in the uk and the ambitious plans have brought about the need for some structural changes within the RATP.

First in Northampton:
The Company has reported approx £50'000 in losses. There still no sign in new livery or new buses.
* Betting withdrawn: For it to close down,
* 5/1: For the Depot to be sold off or with Leicester

First Edinburgh
Over the past two weeks even more very strong talk has been noted about the possibility of the sell off, management meetings which all just seems to have come about nothing.

As it stands, Expect the Scottish Border No new buses are being bough, the repaint seems to be all over the place, and it has made £3'000'000 losses for the past financial year, which is more than all of the other company looses put together which have been sold off. Add in RATP changes and it could leaded to something but????

* Livingston: EVENS
* Musselburgh: 4/9
* Stirling Only 100/30 ( this odd is between 3/1 and 4/1)
* everything Bar Border: 50/1
* Scottish border: 50/1

London Depot
With £70million, still needing to be found, a London Depot sell off would be able to bring in fast cash. Go ahead said it would like to get increase it operations in London but could winning contract be the better option?
Dagenham and Lea are both depot which are out of the way.

* Any London Depot 5/6

First Somerset
Every other company ( bar one) on the list that was published by PT has all been sold off. Has somerset had new buses? has it had new livery?

Of course could this be RED Hearing in the list to confuse or maybe district the public to all allow first to get on with selling off something else in private?

* 15/8 Any of the depots:

First Cornwall
It made a 9.3% loses over the past Financial year. Even after gaining new new council work etc, but strikes and continuing loses are not helping, but who would want to buy it Or could it just lose its council work and just stuck to its pure core work?

* 15/8 Any of the depots

First Glasgow No2: FiG no2 cover Dumbarton, Cumbernauld, Blntyre, Overtown.

The company made a 7.3% loss, but Dumbarton has been give 40 brand new buses. So its Lanarkshire is the trouble, in September a number of cut backs were put in place, but a new name was introduced. With losses like that in SUCH a GOOD bus area what has gone wrong?

* Any Depot BAR Dumbarton to be sold 11/5 - CHANGE

First Leicester
Fleet is 100% DDA, the network is suppose to be doing great, why waste time, money and effort on a place which does not need it? Many places higher up in this list which needs first attention. But it shares it network with arriva, it would make it eailser to sell off in the eyes of the CC/OFT?

* 3/1: Sell Off

Irish Aircoach For the full Details of the current situation read Page 65.

* 5/1

First Berkshire
There has been some talk about the operations around this company. Its first biggest profit company, but the fleet is not as bad as other place but it heading the same way as Wigan, relying more on older 10 year old darts. New stock is suppose to be appearing which should kill off S & T reg buses. Dart 52 plate from London could be drafted in to replace older X reg darts. Unless someone else knows anything else? BUT just this week a solo was repainted in the new livery.

* 6/1 : Sell Off

First Ipswich
Not big depot but after looking at the Fleet list and some of the recent service changes this could be classed as another underdog depot. Alot of P and R reg stock, nothing that stands out as a cash cow bar the park N ride which could be lost. How much will it cost to replace alot of the fleet even with T, X, reg which is also needed else where?

* 6/1

Fun:
* First York: 40/1
* Aberdeen 100/1
* Manchester , Yorkshire, Glasgow No1 : 200/1

 

[Mutant Lemming]

I hope that First does not pull the plug on Northampton as it will be very sad ending to a once proud operation that was Northampton Transport, Hopefully another operator will save them.

I fear that the St.James site is just too central to remain a bus depot and even if First remained in Northampton I can see them moving to an edge of town industrial site and the depot being turned over to one of the supermarket chains. It is probably the most valuable asset of the Northampton operation.

 

[tbtc]

I think that the bigger question is whether the competition authorities will allow the Kidderminster takeover - that will show whether there's much scope for certain other operations to be bought by local rivals or not.

(which is the place other than Somerset on the "list" that hasn't been sold yet?)

 

[overthewater]

I think that the bigger question is whether the competition authorities will allow the Kidderminster takeover - that will show whether there's much scope for certain other operations to be bought by local rivals or not.

(which is the place other than Somerset on the "list" that hasn't been sold yet?)

Northampton Of course

 

[robertclark125]

Here's a thought about RATP, and it exploring opportunities. Could RATP perhaps bid to buy out Firstgroup as a whole?

 

[90019]

First Edinburgh
Over the past two weeks even more very strong talk has been noted about the possibility of the sell off, management meetings which all just seems to have come about nothing.

* Livingston: EVENS
* Musselburgh: 4/9

Current expectation is that Livingston, Musselburgh and North Berwick are about to go.

It appears that Lothian may be attempting to get Musselburgh (and possibly North Berwick, since it's more a glorified outpost than a depot).
Personally I think it woud make sense, to then base East Lothian there, freeing up space at Marine.

From what I've been told, Lothian won't touch Livingston.

 

[tbtc]

From what I've been told, Lothian won't touch Livingston.

What would you do with Livingston? (if handed a bucket of cash to take over)

First couldn't get "express" services to Edinburgh to work (unlike say Cumbernauld - Glasgow), the "local" work is too messy to get any coherent "Overground" operation, the train seems to be taking a bigger share of the "Edinburgh" market, there's a lot of competition for a medium-sized "pie" (compared to Fife where Stagecoach have pretty much free reign), the design of Livingston (as a town) means the car is king... it'd be a tricky operation to make much from.

 

[overthewater]

What would you do with Livingston? (if handed a bucket of cash to take over)

First couldn't get "express" services to Edinburgh to work (unlike say Cumbernauld - Glasgow), the "local" work is too messy to get any coherent "Overground" operation, the train seems to be taking a bigger share of the "Edinburgh" market, there's a lot of competition for a medium-sized "pie" (compared to Fife where Stagecoach have pretty much free reign), the design of Livingston (as a town) means the car is king... it'd be a tricky operation to make much from.

You would buy the company for £1 plus debt..

Most of the routes are controlled routes which mean there cant do much with them. It may be designed with Car in mind but if its never had real fighting chance in over 15 years. You could simplfly the town service slipt the routes up to speed everything up.

Livingston has alot of call centers so why not have buses linking into these place around start and finishing times.

Livingston can be a cash cow if it was given a proper run for its money.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Hopefully will be able to bring an update about First Aircoach in Ireland next week. The accounts are due to be filled by the end of the week and most likely will be published online a few days later. The NI accounts have already been published but that is only a very small part of the business.

 

[winston270twm]

I think that the bigger question is whether the competition authorities will allow the Kidderminster takeover - that will show whether there's much scope for certain other operations to be bought by local rivals or not.

(which is the place other than Somerset on the "list" that hasn't been sold yet?)

There's unlikely to be any issues with Oft /MMC being interested in Rotala acquiring Kidderminster as Whittles provide competition on most routes. However, Redditch will be a different kettle of fish due to Rotala taking out the competition and merging both fleets
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'm more interested in how the addition £70million will be raised.

And me....
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Here's a thought about RATP, and it exploring opportunities. Could RATP perhaps bid to buy out Firstgroup as a whole?

I believe RAPT Group is smaller than First Group, plus they would have to take on all the debt