First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

Might want to change those odds, we've had these (among other deckers) for about a month now.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/52890672@N05/8101010890/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/52890672@N05/8080631877/in/set-72157624850499954/

Odd shall change on Sunday, I dare say a swap with Leicester could be on the cards. Cheers for the pics!

 

[MCW]

Northampton was a huge operation in GRT days. I'm not normally one to lecture others on things I couldn't do myself but there are SO MANY ways it could've been better managed and any other major operator would've done a better job with it. First just cut left right and centre and went out of their way to avoid spending money on anything except failed prototypes and a line-branding system that made no sense at all. They've been slashing routes for the best part of a decade; it's not a new thing by any means, and neither is the swapping of new vehicles. There used to be 05 plate Wrights single and double deck if you go back several years.

That's what I meant, it was bad when First came into being as an entity
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Odd shall change on Sunday, I dare say a swap with Leicester could be on the cards. Cheers for the pics!

why would they swap them if they have york branding and legals? be a waste of money branding it if they are transferring here.

One of our ALX400's went to Northampton two weeks ago, apparently they did try sending a dennis lance in return, it was here for a day then went back! don't know what that was all about!

 

[overthewater]

That's what I meant, it was bad when First came into being as an entity
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why would they swap them if they have york branding and legals? be a waste of money branding it if they are transferring here.

One of our ALX400's went to Northampton two weeks ago, apparently they did try sending a dennis lance in return, it was here for a day then went back! don't know what that was all about!

I mean I would swap the odd not the buses around. So Leicester would get cut to 40/1 and york would get pushed to 50/1. BUT still There pretty high up on the list at those prices

 

[MCW]

I mean I would swap the odd not the buses around. So Leicester would get cut to 40/1 and york would get pushed to 50/1. BUT still There pretty high up on the list at those prices

ah got ya.

i get a bit weary at this time of night!

now I know what you're on about, yes I do agree there.... we will see. However again, like my non concrete gen informs me of is that the relivering and branding of Leicester vehicles will take place in the new year, so again, it's wait and see.

I think we need to do midweek odds as well as every sunday.

 

[overthewater]

Reason for talk of odd and not updating them until Sunday is because all the details about sell off and closures happens on a Monday. Chester, Wigan, London, Dalkieth, North Devon, all happened on a Monday. Thus Sunday is the best time to look back to see if any gems of information can he highlighted.

 

[MCW]

Reason for talk of odd and not updating them until Sunday is because all the details about sell off and closures happens on a Monday. Chester, Wigan, London, Dalkieth, North Devon, all happened on a Monday. Thus Sunday is the best time to look back to see if any gems of information can he highlighted.

got you on that one.

thinking about it, if leicester was in the firing line they wouldn't be taking on new drivers and training them up would they?

 

[overthewater]

got you on that one.

thinking about it, if leicester was in the firing line they wouldn't be taking on new drivers and training them up would they?

That depends of course if the depot needs them, you cant really sell off a depot if you dont have drivers

 

[radamfi]

I mean I would swap the odd not the buses around. So Leicester would get cut to 40/1 and york would get pushed to 50/1. BUT still There pretty high up on the list at those prices

Your odds are so generous! If you were a bookmaker you would go bust very quickly! Do you really think there is only a 2.5% chance of Leicester being sold?

 

[F Great Eastern]

Liveries in the Dublin operation have started to look shabby according to a post I read on an Irish forum, I had a look on Flickr and it seems stuff is not getting much TLC.

Perhaps Aircoach will be sold off? Citylink (ComfortDelGro) were supposed to be sniffing around and after the intercity parts of the operation earlier in the year and apparently bid for route licenses according to elsewhere.

The vehicles sent over from Cymru in the last few months have no First branding and they're now using non FirstGroup fleet numbers for vehicles. The two Panthers that came over are in just white rather than Aircoach blue.

 

[overthewater]

Your odds are so generous! If you were a bookmaker you would go bust very quickly! Do you really think there is only a 2.5% chance of Leicester being sold?

Lets be honest, at this moment there other places which are more likely to get sold off, Every depot is possible, but do you know something else?

First in Northampton, First Edinburgh, or London are more likely to be sold off the now. the chances of Leicester being sold this year is very unlikely.

Where would you place the odd?

 

[sonic2009]

I would still say that part of Wyvern is going, rumours i've heard that Stagecoach will take over Redditch & Kidderminster and Diamond will take over selected routes both in Redditch and Kiddiminster.

 

[markie73]

Lets be honest, at this moment there other places which are more likely to get sold off, Every depot is possible, but do you know something else?

First in Northampton, First Edinburgh, or London are more likely to be sold off the now. the chances of Leicester being sold this year is very unlikely.

Where would you place the odd?

I'm suprised that there has been no news on Northampton considering First have sold other depots off in a short space of time, maybe they know something we don't?
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the chances of Leicester being sold this year is very unlikely.

I can't see First selling Leicester off as its not a loss making operation, then again stranger things have happened.
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I would still say that part of Wyvern is going, rumours i've heard that Stagecoach will take over Redditch & Kidderminster and Diamond will take over selected routes both in Redditch and Kiddiminster.

How about Stagecoach will take over Northampton and Uno bus will take other selected routes in Northampton??:roll:

 

[cainebj]

I'm suprised that there has been no news on Northampton considering First have sold other depots off in a short space of time, maybe they know something we don't?

How about Stagecoach will take over Northampton and Uno bus will take other selected routes in Northampton??:roll:

What they do know is that Stagecoach aren't in a position to take over their services until the new depot is opened early next year. It's an almost certainty Northampton is just going to be closed down with services passed to other operators, but they're unlikely to do it until the services can be covered. It has been rumoured for a while now that Stagecoach are going to be the main operator to take over the First services, with Uno and possibly Centrebus picking up some of the slack. It is looking unlikely that any confirmation of Northampton will come before the end of the year but only time will tell.

 

[markie73]

What they do know is that Stagecoach aren't in a position to take over their services until the new depot is opened early next year. It's an almost certainty Northampton is just going to be closed down with services passed to other operators, but they're unlikely to do it until the services can be covered. It has been rumoured for a while now that Stagecoach are going to be the main operator to take over the First services, with Uno and possibly Centrebus picking up some of the slack. It is looking unlikely that any confirmation of Northampton will come before the end of the year but only time will tell.

I was under the impression that Stagecoach would not be allowed to take over First's services as that would give them the monopoly in the town and they would precluded from doing so by the competition authorities.

I have heard the Centrebus and Uno rumor regarding them taking several of First Northampton's routes it seems that these rumors have gone quiet as well.

 

[cainebj]

I was under the impression that Stagecoach would not be allowed to take over First's services as they would have the monopoly in the town and would precluded from doing so by the competition authorities.

I have heard the Centrebus rumor and also the rumor concerning Uno taking several of First Northampton's routes it seems that both of these rumors have gone quiet as well.

The Competition Commission would only become involved if First sold the operations to Stagecoach, which they're not going to be. Stagecoach and First can have an agreement for Stagecoach to register commercial replacements for the First services (and possibly an agreement for Stagecoach to take on the First drivers for the services), giving Stagecoach the monopoly, without any authorities becoming involved, which is most likely what is going to happen. Similarly First could have agreements with Uno and Centrebus to take over other services that First could pass over at any time, but it'd be easier for administration for First to cancel all the services at the same time.

 

[markie73]

The Competition Commission would only become involved if First sold the operations to Stagecoach, which they're not going to be. Stagecoach and First can have an agreement for Stagecoach to register commercial replacements for the First services (and possibly an agreement for Stagecoach to take on the First drivers for the services), giving Stagecoach the monopoly, without any authorities becoming involved, which is most likely what is going to happen. Similarly First could have agreements with Uno and Centrebus to take over other services that First could pass over at any time, but it'd be easier for administration for First to cancel all the services at the same time.

Thanks for clearing that up for me, So Northampton could/will become another Stagecoach operation in due course, going back to the Uno Bus rumour I told a while back that Uno is supposed to be taking two of First Northampton's existing services (4 / 4A) very soon but there has been no further developments on that for a while now.
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Stagecoach and First can have an agreement for Stagecoach to register commercial replacements for the First services (and possibly an agreement for Stagecoach to take on the First drivers for the services), giving Stagecoach the monopoly, without any authorities becoming involved, which is most likely what is going to happen.

Well if this can happen then it would safeguard the First drivers jobs (which will a good thing) and save Stagecoach from recruiting and training new drivers as they will have gained experienced and local drivers from First, but if this did happen then would Stagecoach have enough metal to cover an extra 12 routes that they would take from First?, I cant see Stagecoach retaining the Floliners (even in the short term) that Northampton have just acquired given the state of them!.

Would like to see a Gemini decked out in Stagecoach blues though!!

 

[overthewater]

I doubt stagecoach will take over all 12 routes, what could well be happening is First, uno and Stagecoach are all taking about when closure could take place, Stagecoach would be looking for the best routes to take over, and incorporate into the existing stagecoach networked. Stagecoach might even have a proper overhaul of its own networked from the same day, just like in North Devon.

 

[MK Tom]

I doubt stagecoach will take over all 12 routes, what could well be happening is First, uno and Stagecoach are all taking about when closure could take place, Stagecoach would be looking for the best routes to take over, and incorporate into the existing stagecoach networked. Stagecoach might even have a proper overhaul of its own networked from the same day, just like in North Devon.

Twelve routes?

2, 4, 4A, 12, 23, 28, 29, 30. That's eight, and the 29/30 are basically the same service!

 

[overthewater]

Twelve routes?

2, 4, 4A, 12, 23, 28, 29, 30. That's eight, and the 29/30 are basically the same service!

Other 4/5 are School and work services I believe Maybe someone in orange might take them

 

[radamfi]

Lets be honest, at this moment there other places which are more likely to get sold off, Every depot is possible, but do you know something else?

First in Northampton, First Edinburgh, or London are more likely to be sold off the now. the chances of Leicester being sold this year is very unlikely.

Where would you place the odd?

Even your least generous odds are very generous. You only give Lea Interchange a 20% chance of a sale. Your other odds would suggest that any other sale other than Northampton, Edinburgh and London is very unlikely. They will get nowhere near the £100 million target if they only sell Northampton, Lea Interchange and Edinburgh. Therefore I would suggest that they will have to sell something of significant value, which would mean that most companies would have much shorter odds, say 10-1.

I would, however, disagree with the 50-50 chance for a Northampton sale, given that most people seem to think that it will be shut down without a sale, so perhaps 5-1 would be more appropriate.

I suppose the odds do need to factor in the possibility that they will give up trying to raise £100 million and will instead try to get a refinancing package from the banks, or do something with the rail franchises, or sell some American school buses.

I would agree that the Irish Aircoach network is looking vulnerable at the moment so there could be a possibility there too. How about some odds for that?

 

[tbtc]

I can't see First selling Leicester off as its not a loss making operation

Wigan was a profit making organisation.

Stagecoach/ Trent/ Go-Ahed etc aren't going to spend a lot of money buying an unprofitable business - any unprofitable operation would probably just be closed straight down (and buses moved on)

National Express for Leicester? An urban operation (like the West Midlands/ Dundee), not far from Birmingham, could easily have some shared management etc...

 

[markie73]

Twelve routes?

2, 4, 4A, 12, 23, 28, 29, 30. That's eight, and the 29/30 are basically the same service!

Thanks MK Tom for correcting me on this!, anyway here is what I think the routes Stagecoach or Uno could operate IF Northampton is not sold and is closed down.

First route 2: To Stagecoach as part of their existing service 1 and re-branded as the service 1A to cover the areas served by First?, and as could end up as service 1/1A?

First route 4 and 4A: Both rumored to heading to Uno, service 4 could be extended to serve the University and both routes could get a better service after 8pm? or both routes could end up at Stagecoach?

First route 12: To Stagecoach as part of their existing service 15 which could be altered to cover the areas served by First, could end up as the 15A or be dropped altogether?.

First route 23: Disappear altogether and become part of the existing Stagecoach 52 which also serves Brackmills?, Could Country Lion expand their 109 service though?

First route 28: Stagecoach cover parts of this service with the existing 8 and 89 (correct me if I am wrong) so they could take it and alter/extend or introduce a completely new service to cover areas served by First or could go to another operator such as Uno?....

First routes 29/30: Essentialy the same routes but serve Dallington Road and Gladstone Road, could be a rich picking for Stagecoach given the fact they have a big network in this part of the borough (9 and 9A) which serve Duston, or could be another expansion for Uno Bus?.


Its just my opinion on what could happen, but it will be interesting to see the what the eventual outcome will be.

 

[MCW]

Wigan was a profit making organisation.

National Express for Leicester? An urban operation (like the West Midlands/ Dundee), not far from Birmingham, could easily have some shared management etc...

I wasn't the only one thinking about it then.

to me, having NX here in leicester would be quite logical, like you said, not far from Brum and Covo and it's still pretty much bang slap in the middle of the country, which is quite useful for any large company I suppose.

 

[overthewater]

I have taken everything that has been said and I aspect some of the point, remember the aim of the game for first was to raise £100million to help of debts, I and im sure many others will agree it been extended to also cut loses, and also somehow reduce the amount needed for new money to be used on new rolling stock First is still having a real problem getting rid of all Non DDA buses.

When it comes to odd, further alone we are with the sell the more likely the odds will get cut for other depots. The starting odds are very high but let keep Leicester as EG, 40/1, possibility at this moment of time is not very high, I think other will agree. Even First has started the process will take alot longer even until end of 2013 financial year? to get a decent buyer. Why Sell Leicester the now for £4million when in 18months you could sell it at £8m. The odd would have come down over that period just like with the dogs/horse etc at the start high odd, closer to the time odd sky dive.

I have listened and here are the new lower odds, which are linked to what been said above: and there are the most likely place first would sell off. It does seem some people are also proper betting men

#############################################

First in Northampton:
* Evans: for it to close down,
* 5/1: For the Depot to be sold off

First Edinburgh
As it stands, there has been some strong talk that a number of interested parities are sniffing around, of course this could mean nothing but with this information
* Livingston EVANS:
* Musselburgh: 12/1 This year, 15/8 for next year sell.
* Scottish borders: 11/4
* Larbart and Stirling: 25/1

London Depot
Go ahead has said it would like to get increase it operations in London but could winning contract be the better option? stagecoach was also suppose to be during Dagenham depot but pulled out over the price. London depot would make a better choice to get rid as it could pull in another £10million easily

* Any London Depot 6/4

First Ipswich
Not big depot but after looking at the Fleet list and some of the recent service changes this could be classed as another underdog depot. Alot of P and R reg stock, nothing that stands out as a cash cow bar the park N ride which could be lost. How much will it cost to replace alot of the fleet even with T, X, reg which is also needed else where?

* 7/4 for a Sell off
* 18/1 for close down

Redditch and Kidderminster
New talk has appeared about these depots. I have my doubts since the CC/OFT will be sniffing around these depots. Im trying to think who would but it out? also said depots must be the ones that are causing the company to be in the Red. Fleet not bad but is there spare cash to make it better? I doubt it.

* 15/8 for a Sell off

First Cornwall
Its been a rather bumpy ride this year, after its gain new council work etc, but strikes and continuing loses are not helping, but who would want to buy it
Or could it just lose its council work and just stuck to its pure core work?
* 11/4 for a sell off

First Berkshire There has been some talk about the operations around this company. Important facts, its first biggest profit company. The fleet is now not as bad as other place above or even below, while the routes do use older stock could it be another Wigan area? I have doubts since new stock keeps appearing and its been said NEW stock is on the way shortly which should kill off S & T reg buses. Dart 52 plate from London could be drafted in to replace older X reg darts. Unless someone else knows anything else? BUT just this week a solo was repainted in the new livery. Main reason why this is higher then Leicester? because it has older stock and will soon need replacing.

* 6/1 : Sell Off

First Leicester
Fleet is 100% DDA, the network is suppose to be doing great, why waste time, money and effort on a place which does not need it? Many places higher up in this list which needs first attention. But if the above cant make the full amount then something else has to go, and what better than a smaller network which is shared with someone else?

* 8/1: Sell Off

Irish Aircoach
Is the network looking vulnerable at the moment? Some people seem to think so but there also the battle with the publicly owned coach company bus eireann. So there could be a possibility there too, well remember first spent €16.5M for it in 2003:

exchange rate in 2003: €1 = £ 1.44
Today rate is €1 = £0.8043

£13275900, just to get back what there spent. Could First get that at this moment of time? has Eire economy pick up enough? Will Bus Eireann be sold off? could first with a same amount of money make it better?

What other issues are there? Can anyone else say what there are?

* 25/1 for a sell off over the next 14 month...

Fun:
* First York: 50/1
* Aberdeen 100/1
* Manchester , Yorkshire, Glasgow No1 : 200/1

 

[MK Tom]

Thanks MK Tom for correcting me on this!, anyway here is what I think the routes Stagecoach or Uno could operate IF Northampton is not sold and is closed down.

First route 2: To Stagecoach as part of their existing service 1 and re-branded as the service 1A to cover the areas served by First?, and as could end up as service 1/1A?

First route 4 and 4A: Both rumored to heading to Uno, service 4 could be extended to serve the University and both routes could get a better service after 8pm? or both routes could end up at Stagecoach?

First route 12: To Stagecoach as part of their existing service 15 which could be altered to cover the areas served by First, could end up as the 15A or be dropped altogether?.

First route 23: Disappear altogether and become part of the existing Stagecoach 52 which also serves Brackmills?, Could Country Lion expand their 109 service though?

First route 28: Stagecoach cover parts of this service with the existing 8 and 89 (correct me if I am wrong) so they could take it and alter/extend or introduce a completely new service to cover areas served by First or could go to another operator such as Uno?....

First routes 29/30: Essentialy the same routes but serve Dallington Road and Gladstone Road, could be a rich picking for Stagecoach given the fact they have a big network in this part of the borough (9 and 9A) which serve Duston, or could be another expansion for Uno Bus?.


Its just my opinion on what could happen, but it will be interesting to see the what the eventual outcome will be.

Whoever else it was who mentioned school contracts, First surrendered them all to Country Lion at the start of this academic year.

Yeah I largely agree with what you've said here. The 2 doesn't really serve anywhere that's not served by the 1 or 7 so we'll probably just see frequency increases on those.

4/4A are really obvious catches for Uno as they'll give them a uniform operation along the Harborough Road and will allow a great diversification of services to the University. This won't be much of a long-term investment though if the University goes ahead with its plans to relocate from Park campus to their town centre site at St. James. Also Stagecoach have looked at Kingsthorpe with watering mouths for a long time so a fight will ensue if Uno register it without coming to a deal with SC first.

12 is a very lightly used service and diverting the 15 isn't feasible given Camp Hill's location. I predict it becoming a council contract and passing to Country Lion or Meridian.

Agreed on 23.

28 merging with the 8 makes complete sense. Again this is an underutilised route and also comes within spitting distance of the end of the 12 so combining the two into a new service, called the 28, might be a good idea for SC or another operator.

I see no good reason for the different routes of the 29 and 30. They are adjacent streets in a Victorian terrace. Nobody on one route is out of range from the other unless they're so disabled they need to use the special bus anyway. It's literally a difference of about thirty yards. It does fit in with part of the 19 so it could be another logical grab for Uno but it's nowhere near uni campuses so I reckon Stagecoach will nab it. They've had their eye on Kings Heath for a long time.

 

[winston270twm]

I would still say that part of Wyvern is going, rumours i've heard that Stagecoach will take over Redditch & Kidderminster and Diamond will take over selected routes both in Redditch and Kiddiminster.

Rumours not so long ago suggested that NX was close to agreeing a deal to buy both Redditch & Kidderminster, but then one party pulled out & all has since gone quiet. How recent are these rumours?

Would have thought that the entire operation at both Redditch & Kidderminster would go to one or seperate buyers, if Stagecoach were the buyer for example, I very much doubt Diamond would also have certain routes if it involved Redditch for example which is only a 31 vehicle op as it is, Kidderminster is even less with only 20 vehicles

 

[markie73]

Whoever else it was who mentioned school contracts, First surrendered them all to Country Lion at the start of this academic year

Not to sure about that MK Tom as earlier today I did see 38122 in Kingsthorpe with 'School Bus' on its board earlier today?...

 

[winston270twm]

Wigan was a profit making organisation.
National Express for Leicester? An urban operation (like the West Midlands/ Dundee), not far from Birmingham, could easily have some shared management etc...

I thought NX could well be interested in Leicester in addition they are/were also rumoured to be interested in the parts of Wyvern being sold off, the sale of Leicester with around 110 buses would nett First a decent amount in proceeds yet they would only be selling a relatively small profitable operation with limited scale to expand significantly

 

[markie73]

4/4A are really obvious catches for Uno as they'll give them a uniform operation along the Harborough Road and will allow a great diversification of services to the University. This won't be much of a long-term investment though if the University goes ahead with its plans to relocate from Park campus to their town centre site at St. James. Also Stagecoach have looked at Kingsthorpe with watering mouths for a long time so a fight will ensue if Uno register it without coming to a deal with SC first.

The relocation is being planned for the nunn mills area of town where Avon and the old power station used to be and is a long way from being confirmed, but I agree with what you say about Uno expanding their operation as it is a logical choice but I bet Stagecoach will go in war mode to get the Service 4 and 4A as they are healthy routes (i.e when they decide to turn up and run on time though!), could be fireworks on this one!

By the time the University relocates to Nunn Mills I can see Uno being a major player in the town and having gone through another fleet renewal as well!!!

 

[MK Tom]

Not to sure about that MK Tom as earlier today I did see 38122 in Kingsthorpe with 'School Bus' on its board earlier today?...

I wouldn't trust anything on a First blind! Well they gave away their dedicated fleet of yellow school buses to other depots over Summer with Country Lion vehicles turning up on the routes those were running. I assume to avoid starting an annual contract when they won't have a depot in the town by the end of it.