First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

Going by that, both Bristol and Bath ought to be for sale! Plenty of step entrance Darts still in operation round here as well as M-reg Lances, step-entrance Mercedes of various ages, and numerous low floor R and S-reg Darts (the S-reg ones such as this being particularly awful). Can't see either area being sold though.

That Dart is PURE luxeray to some of the crap I have to put up at least Bath and bristol is getting new buses

 

[winston270twm]

oldest fleet as a whole has to be northampton at my guess but I know theres some places down south which have olympians knocking about.

Northampton's fleet isn't actually that old, it's needs some TLC, but that is due to FEC. There are some First fleets that still still operate M/N reg step entrance Darts & early P & R reg Dart SLF's. At least the Scania's are heavy weight single deckers

FDC still operate K reg Leyland Olympians, plus numerous L / M / N & P reg Leyland / Volvo examples

 

[MK Tom]

Northampton's fleet isn't actually that old, it's needs some TLC, but that is due to FEC. There are some First fleets that still still operate M/N reg step entrance Darts & early P & R reg Dart SLF's. At least the Scania's are heavy weight single deckers

FDC still operate K reg Leyland Olympians, plus numerous L / M / N & P reg Leyland / Volvo examples

Don't forget Northampton's three Volvo Citybuses and two Dennis Lances. Once the two Geminis go that will give a fairly old average age seeing as the Wrights are all R and S reg.

 

[markie73]

Don't forget Northampton's three Volvo Citybuses and two Dennis Lances. Once the two Geminis go that will give a fairly old average age seeing as the Wrights are all R and S reg.

Do we know when the two Gemini's will leave Northampton's fleet?, I thought that they was supposed tobe Stoke bound?, also 32065 which recently came from Leicester has been returned back to them from what I have been told.

If the two Gemini's do leave the operation then it will be interesting to see what they get replaced with!.

 

[tbtc]

At the end of the day, any of the fleets which were possible favourites for being sold that are now receiving the new livery could still be sold yet if a suitable offer is forthcoming.....

It was mentioned earlier in the thread that a Wigan bus received the new livery, yet the depot was sold off.

Presumably buses are painted to some sort of schedule so First aren't going to keep running them round in an outdated livery forever whilst they wait to see if someone wants to buy a depot.

 

[Ivo]

That Dart is PURE luxeray to some of the crap I have to put up

Have you ever actually been on any of those Darts? Ask tbtc what they're like - I'm sure he could fill you in

The vast majority of Darts are somewhat uninteresting, but they are ultimately decent vehicles to travel on. These ones, however...

 

[tbtc]

Have you ever actually been on any of those Darts? Ask tbtc what they're like - I'm sure he could fill you in

The vast majority of Darts are somewhat uninteresting, but they are ultimately decent vehicles to travel on. These ones, however...

Oh yes... there are Darts and then there are the ex-Mainline batch down in Bath that have the engines of asthmatic milkfloats and were run into the ground over ten years ago - amazing that they made the journey south tbh!

(and, no Ivo, we don't want 'em back )

 

[winston270twm]

Don't forget Northampton's three Volvo Citybuses and two Dennis Lances. Once the two Geminis go that will give a fairly old average age seeing as the Wrights are all R and S reg.

Fair point, at least First exchanged the B7L's for low floor Scania's, you could have had a load more step entrance Lances from Wyvern instead if they had decided to send the Scania's from FEC elsewhere within the group

 

[overthewater]

Fair point, at least First exchanged the B7L's for low floor Scania's, you could have had a load more step entrance Lances from Wyvern instead if they had decided to send the Scania's from FEC elsewhere within the group

Neither of those two types are DDA, it would not make a bit of difference in the accounting eyes, since both will have to get replaced

Agreed, if the buses is scheduled to get repainted there cant hold back just in case someone might be interested in maybe buying the depot at some point

 

[MCW]

Head up guys, My assisstant admin on my Local enthusiasts facebook page posted this:

-----

First Group News...

•66845 and 66849 are now at Leicester from the Potteries operations with 66842/3/4/6/7/8 due in the new year.

•32629/30 at Northampton will move to Potteries with 2 alx400's from Leicester replacing them.

•6 as yet unknown geminis from Leicester will be moving to Potteries soon.

•Leicester is believed to be up for sale with Northampton (more info when we've got it).
-----------

the tail end thing about the sale has been calculated and kinda predicted by consolidating tid bits of info together... however I now have a feeling they might de-register routes instead of selling up.

 

[Lewisham2221]

Head up guys, My assisstant admin on my Local enthusiasts facebook page posted this:

-----

First Group News...

•66845 and 66849 are now at Leicester from the Potteries operations with 66842/3/4/6/7/8 due in the new year.

•32629/30 at Northampton will move to Potteries with 2 alx400's from Leicester replacing them.

•6 as yet unknown geminis from Leicester will be moving to Potteries soon.

•Leicester is believed to be up for sale with Northampton (more info when we've got it).
-----------

the tail end thing about the sale has been calculated and kinda predicted by consolidating tid bits of info together... however I now have a feeling they might de-register routes instead of selling up.

You'll have some luck getting 66844/6/8 from Potteries as they aren't here.

 

[MCW]

You'll have some luck getting 66844/6/8 from Potteries as they aren't here.

this is why I'm so glad I post on this forum!!! then all the mistakes get corrected

well that epically backfired!

 

[overthewater]

Should those odds get cut?

Who would want to buy both?

 

[Lewisham2221]

this is why I'm so glad I post on this forum!!! then all the mistakes get corrected

well that epically backfired!

Unfortunately I've lost track of which Volvo's have already left, otherwise I'd try and fill you in on what the numbers of the other 3 are.

 

[MCW]

Should those odds get cut?

Who would want to buy both?

the odds should be definitely altered, I suggest odds for both being sold together or routes being cancelled etc.

Unfortunately I've lost track of which Volvo's have already left, otherwise I'd try and fill you in on what the numbers of the other 3 are.

nah it's cool mate, don't worry about it. I find keeping track of First stuff more confusing than Arriva stock... probably that extra digit! lol

 

[markie73]

Head up guys, My assisstant admin on my Local enthusiasts facebook page posted this:

-----

First Group News...

•66845 and 66849 are now at Leicester from the Potteries operations with 66842/3/4/6/7/8 due in the new year.

•32629/30 at Northampton will move to Potteries with 2 alx400's from Leicester replacing them.

•6 as yet unknown geminis from Leicester will be moving to Potteries soon.

•Leicester is believed to be up for sale with Northampton (more info when we've got it).
-----------

the tail end thing about the sale has been calculated and kinda predicted by consolidating tid bits of info together... however I now have a feeling they might de-register routes instead of selling up.

Isn't Leicester one of First's depots that is making a profit?, I would be suprised if they decided to put this operation up for sale and even more so if they decided to add Northampton as a 'bolt on' as part of the Leicester sale.

Northampton has reportedly sent 32065 back to Leicester only to be replaced by two more ALX400's should the two Gemini's move to the potteries?.

IF First decide to de-register their routes then it will be rich pickings for Stagecoach especialy as they have had their eye on the Kingsthorpe routes again ever since they withdrew the short lived 4U service that competed against First Northampton's service 4 back in 2004/2005.

 

[tbtc]

Isn't Leicester one of First's depots that is making a profit?, I would be suprised if they decided to put this operation up for sale

Wigan was making a profit - a fairly healthy one - and was sold.

If First still want to raise £100m then they'll have to sell some profitable bits of business - they won't get big bucks for selling loss making operations.

 

[Lewisham2221]

Isn't Leicester one of First's depots that is making a profit?, I would be suprised if they decided to put this operation up for sale and even more so if they decided to add Northampton as a 'bolt on' as part of the Leicester sale.

Logic says that in order to raise £80million (or whatever the figure is), some profitable operations will have to be sold.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Wigan was making a profit - a fairly healthy one - and was sold.

If First still want to raise £100m then they'll have to sell some profitable bits of business - they won't get big bucks for selling loss making operations.

Beat me to it, but pretty much what I was thinking.

 

[overthewater]

the odds should be definitely altered, I suggest odds for both being sold together or routes being cancelled etc.

You are on about Leicester ?

 

[markie73]

You are on about Leicester ?

No obvious buyer for Northampton so could routes be de-registered, all seems to have gone quiet on this in recent weeks.

 

[MCW]

You are on about Leicester ?

yeah, i forgot to say that.... doh

 

[overthewater]

The thing is were still expecting Livingston/ something else within First Edinburgh and Northampton to be given the boot, yet nothing. its all possible we could be 6months down the line...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Either way it very unlikely we will hear anything until first full Business week, since it would be pretty bad for a company to sell off something days before xmas.

 

[tbtc]

Logic says that in order to raise £80million (or whatever the figure is), some profitable operations will have to be sold

Yup - either First are serious about needing to raise a large sum of money or they can afford to be fussy about which bits of the family silver they let go.

Since this thread was started we've seen the WCML bid "lost", we've seen Hull Trains apparently pledging to stump up the money to electrify the railway from Selby to Hull, we've seen many UK bus operations revamped and we've seen Greyhound scaled down...

...I don't know how many of these things affect the need for £100m (more urgent now? less urgent?), but you're not going to raise those sorts of sums just dumping unprofitable bits of business - you'll need to let something "juicy" go.

 

[winston270twm]

Isn't Leicester one of First's depots that is making a profit?, I would be suprised if they decided to put this operation up for sale and even more so if they decided to add Northampton as a 'bolt on' as part of the Leicester sale.

If First do lump Leicester & Northampton operations together as a package, it would ultimately attract more interest & generate a much greater sale price for the Northampton operation than could be achieved by selling it individually or closing the operation down which would cost First in staff redundancy etc. Although First's Northampton operation may now be loss making it is bad bus operating territory as Stagecoach seems to do well there, they are happy to pick up any routes First have withdrawn in the past.

Sacrificing a profitable Leicester operation wouldn't make that much difference to First Group profits as it’s only a circa 110 vehicle operation. Personally, this is the route I think First should go down, sell some of the smaller profitable operations that would attract a good sale price and retain all the large operations that generate the cash, plough all the investment in to those larger operations where only a small percentage improvement in profit margins would generate more than they would lose by selling off Leicester for example.

If Leicester is on the market, I think NX group could well be interested as it's a similar size operation to Dundee, located not far the West Midlands and it would also give them a presence in Arriva territory should Arriva's incursion in to the West Midlands advance any further.....
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Yup - either First are serious about needing to raise a large sum of money or they can afford to be fussy about which bits of the family silver they let go.

Since this thread was started we've seen the WCML bid "lost", we've seen Hull Trains apparently pledging to stump up the money to electrify the railway from Selby to Hull, we've seen many UK bus operations revamped and we've seen Greyhound scaled down...

...I don't know how many of these things affect the need for £100m (more urgent now? less urgent?), but you're not going to raise those sorts of sums just dumping unprofitable bits of business - you'll need to let something "juicy" go.

First having the WCML cash/profits would have eased the pressure on First's debt burden / dividend payments to shareholders, should that have happened, as I see it First would have been in the position to just sell / close the unprofitable operations.

With First Groups share price still languishing around the 186p mark, the stock market is pricing in First to launch a rights issue to pay off a chunk of its debt and also a cut in the dividend which is currently an unsustainable 12% +. Even raising the full £100 million from Uk bus disposals will not put much on a dent in First Groups debt.....

 

[overthewater]

First still needs to Cut cost, half the companies in the list still make no money, other lot need major cash for new buses..... with a debt pile how could first deal with it?

 

[MCW]

If First do lump Leicester & Northampton operations together as a package, it would ultimately attract more interest & generate a much greater sale price for the Northampton operation than could be achieved by selling it individually or closing the operation down which would cost First in staff redundancy etc. Although First's Northampton operation may now be loss making it is bad bus operating territory as Stagecoach seems to do well there, they are happy to pick up any routes First have withdrawn in the past.

Sacrificing a profitable Leicester operation wouldn't make that much difference to First Group profits as it’s only a circa 110 vehicle operation. Personally, this is the route I think First should go down, sell some of the smaller profitable operations that would attract a good sale price and retain all the large operations that generate the cash, plough all the investment in to those larger operations where only a small percentage improvement in profit margins would generate more than they would lose by selling off Leicester for example.

If Leicester is on the market, I think NX group could well be interested as it's a similar size operation to Dundee, located not far the West Midlands and it would also give them a presence in Arriva territory should Arriva's incursion in to the West Midlands advance any further.....

don't rule out Wellglade or Centrebus.... you never know.....

 

[winston270twm]

don't rule out Wellglade or Centrebus.... you never know.....

Wellglade is a possibility, but could Centrebus raise the funds to buy a profitable operation the size of Leicester?

 

[MCW]

Wellglade is a possibility, but could Centrebus raise the funds to buy a profitable operation the size of Leicester?

Centrebus could possibly form a joint operation like they did High Peak.... but we would have to wait and see... who they would join with is a different question.

 

[overthewater]

So how does one get an extra £32million in profits? I think we might get a surprise from Go ahead......................


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...Ahead-bus-plans-should-underpin-dividend.html

With the process for tendering for rail contracts now thrown into disarray following the disastrous handling of the West Coast Main Line franchise, it looks like a sensible move for Go-Ahead Group to announce an expansion of its bus offering.

Go-Ahead currently operates the Southern, Southeastern and London Midland rail franchises. The company has also been short-listed to bid for the new Thameslink rail franchise, but this process is now on hold following the FirstGroup/Virgin Rail debacle. Go-Ahead also operates regulated bus services in London and deregulated services in other parts of the UK.
Yesterday, it unveiled plans to grow its bus operating profits organically to £100m by 2016, an increase of about 40pc. It plans to do this “through a combination of revenue growth driven by high-quality services, innovation and marketing, and cost efficiency.”
The transport operator also issued a first-quarter trading update yesterday, in which it said trading has been strong. The company also confirmed it was comfortable with full-year consensus expectations.

The focus on improving ticketing, cost savings and other earning enhancing steps in its bus business is positive. These are long-term sustainable businesses, unlike rail franchises which are, by their nature, time limited.
This is positive for the sustainability of the dividend, which is one of the main reasons for owning shares in this cash-generative business. Even after yesterday’s gains the prospective yield is a very attractive 5.94pc. However, current forecasts for the dividend in 2014 imply a slight cut, with the prospective yield standing at 5.87pc. However, David Brown, chief executive, told Quetsor yesterday that he was “committed” to the dividend.
Even if the dividend is trimmed, the prospective yield is still very attractive. Moves to improve profits at the bus operations will strengthen the balance sheet, which should help increase confidence in the payout over the next few years. Questor last said buy in December 2011, when the shares were at £13.69. They are roughly at this level now. Trading on a current year earning multiple of 10.5, the shares remain a buy for income.

http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/busines...ead-looks-to-expand-bus-fleet-51140-31235582/

PUBLIC transport giant Go-Ahead is focusing on expanding its bus division by both acquisition and organic growth and expects to have spent around £30m on snapping up new businesses this year.

The Newcastle-based group, which also runs three rail franchises, yesterday delivered a health trading update to the market showing robust growth across all its businesses.

In the 12 months coming to an end on June 30, the group has bought five new bus businesses, including HC Chambers & Son Ltd, a small bus company operating on the Essex/Suffolk border. Including acquisitions, it expects to see full-year growth in passenger revenues of around 7% and journey growth of around 4.5% in its bus division, which has a fleet of 4,000 carrying around 1.7 million people daily.

Go-Ahead is the biggest bus operator in London and also runs services in the North East, Oxford, East Anglia, the South East and Southern areas, as well as having a stake in a yellow school bus joint venture in the US.

Chief executive David Brown said: “We are getting the organic growth, we are growing the revenues, we are growing the business more.

“With the trains, you have to spend a lot of money to be in the market and there’s no guarantee that you will win it. With the buses, you can acquire and then nurture and grow the business.

“We are really focused on bus at the moment.

“We are looking for further acquisitions and we are focused on organic growth.”

Go-Ahead also produced strong figures for its three franchise rail divisions. It expects full-year like-for-like passenger revenue growth of around 8.5% and growth in passenger numbers of around 1.5% on the Southern franchise.

Southeastern is predicted to see a 10% surge in revenue, with a 1.5% climb in passenger numbers, while London Midland’s growth is set to surpass that with expectations of a 13.5% jump in revenues and an 8% increase in numbers.

Brown said: “London Midland has done exceptionally well. It’s partly where it is economically. They have worked very hard on revenue, with TV advertising and off-peak travel.

“In rail, we are pleased with the performance of our three franchises despite the challenging economic environment.

“Overall, we remain confident that we will deliver a full-year result in line with our expectations.”

The group, which employs about 22,000 people, said its annual capital expenditure would be around £80m for the year. Its first-half revenues rose by almost 6% to £1,199.5m.

Despite the upbeat announcement the company’s share price dropped by 23p to 1196p yesterday.

GO AHEAD PDF report: http://www.go-ahead.com/~/media/Fil...2011pres/bus-markets-in-our-annual-report.pdf

GO AHEAD Inverters report http://www1.axisto.co.uk/webcasting...nvestor-day-2012/data/2012-10-18-go-ahead.pdf

 

[winston270twm]

So how does one get an extra £32million in profits? I think we might get a surprise from Go ahead......................

I'm still not sure that Go-ahead would be that interested in anything that we know First currently have for sale (maybe only Leicester), unless First are prepared to part with something more tasty. Go-ahead have said that they intend to grow the profits by 40% over a four year period, so that's about £8 million a year which is far more realistic. Go-ahead seem to favour taking on smaller quality independents at present, I would have thought that Norfolk Green would be high up its shopping list to consolidate its position in East Anglia, going forward I could see Go-ahead being interested in the Wellglade Group & also Lothian should it ever come on the market, they are both award winning operations with similar innovation to Go-Ahead practises. Also Cardiff Bus, Ipswich Bus, Warrington Borough Transport etc. I'm quite surprised the cash strapped councils haven't put the remaining council owned bus companies up for sale......

Do rule out Go-Ahead buying up any European bus operations, they already have a European partner (in Keolis owned by SNCF) for their Govia joint operations to run UK rail franchises. Go-ahead also set up a joint venture with Cook, Illinois in late 2009 to bid for American school bus contracts