OK let's throw a spanner in the works.
I suspect the problems for Arriva and First are far more than an accounting problem. Underlying it all (as in retail) is the problem:
1. The big bus companies (and many of their OpCos) are simply too large, bureaucratic and inflexible to offer a customer service that can compete with their medium and small-sized counterparts. This matters to the modern consumer who is becoming more and more like our grandparents, who sought more of a personal relationship with their providers. In my own area I can compare First and Arriva (and Stagecoach and Go-Ahead too) with any of Ensign, Uno, Metrobus small CountryBus operation, Borderbus, Lynx and and upteen "small" traditional operators. The comparison is distinctly unfavourable, and it shows on profitability too. Arriva and First haven't lacked for want of trying, they haven't the patience and simply can't compete on service. Which, sorry, is what matters to the passengers; even though not to the accountants.
Stagecoach have managed to stem this with a long-established regime that is designed to ensure staff do as they are told, but are supported when they need it. However, as it looks with Stagecoach East they are struggling to hold the line in some areas. Go-Ahead try to replicate the "small operator" ethos in their local businesses, with mixed results. In East Anglia it has generally been thought to have been a disaster, but perhaps they are now getting their act together? It isn't that Stagecoach and Go-Ahead don't make mistakes, they do as much an anyone else; but they know when to give up, even when it makes them unpopular.
And, yes all operators are a patchwork quilt, better in some areas than others, and it MAY be different in some of the Mets. But, in general, in our fragmented bus world, big's economies of scale are no longer the big benefit they once were. The dinosaurs simply can't adapt.
2. In Britain's Look after No. 1 and I'm all right Jack culture, it is often virtually impossible to get drivers (or management, frankly) who care a hoot about the passengers. They just want to get through to the end of the shift and pick up their pay cheque, with as little hassle as possible (not a criticism, I'd be the same with modern traffic conditions). Again, nothing new and different over the country; some areas are better at customer service and some, the south-east, have always been hopeless in virtually every field of endeavour (though it even used to differ sometimes between neighbouring towns, seemingly dependent on their migrant history!) The good staff will migrate, as they have been doing for decades. Which is of course where we started.
3 [NEW] I suspect both First and Arriva were too slow to cut staff (in common with many employers) and then tended to do so in a ham fisted way when they panicked. The pensions iceberg is one that we have known is coming for a long time. As an aside, and purely from observation, may be the Arriva pension fund is in a worse position?
If this all sounds reminiscent of NBC, it is. And, with probably, the same solution too.
