First Group: General Discussion

[DragonEast]

I suppose you can either see a business as a bet: you take a punt, make money or lose money, and move on. First's way. (Amazon and Google's too - and they're remarkably successful).

Or you can see the network as a garden which needs to be planned, cherished and nurtured over time, and always with a view to the future. Of course sometimes you have to be ruthless, but it's part of a plan. Crisis management is a failure. It might be a landscape or a postage stamp plot, but the philosophy is the same.

Both approaches can work, in their different ways. But it's an either, or.

EDIT I accidentally saw Four's documentary on North Korea last night, and for some reason it reminded me of First. Not so much the image-obsession (though not in any fashion-conscious sense), the artificial flowers rather summed it up; but the comment that nothing-could-happen-unless-everyone-agreed-what-could-happen, and how protecting your back was the overriding concern. When it did happen it came out explosively (to coin a phrase) and that was it . . . end of. If you believe in openness and debate (or even progress, perhaps) neither of them are places to be.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

You try to find a buyer......

Bad Robert! You fanning flames there.....

In all seriousness, you'd question why people would wish to buy into the UK bus market at the moment with poor trading and not just with First. Look at Stagecoach - their passenger figures dropped by 1.5% in the last results, their margin dropped (though still miles better than First) and their profits dropped by £16m (or more than 11%). High street footfall is continuing to decline and it's one of THE major challenges along with pi55poor ENCTS remuneration and cutting of subsidies.

I don't know the Berkshire business at all so can't comment - same for Southampton - though confess I was surprised as it's generally been regarded as a good operation. The cuts in Dorset and Bristol are really eminently sensible and were widely predicted. However, not all OpCos are making service reductions - I pointed out Kernow but are Eastern Counties or BoS or Cymru?

I get all the comments about nurturing businesses and growing them, and what if these cuts don't work? However, remember that Stagecoach are busy trimming back heavily - for all the good PR on Ashford and the minibus experiment, see the extent of the cuts in the Deal and Dover area! Note also the cuts in North Devon, in Tyne and Wear. Now the view was expounded as to the cuts now meaning that the overhead is split over fewer services - well, that's only a factor if those services were actually covering their direct costs and making a contribution. These are calculations that the OpCo MDs will have made, and whilst people often talk about accountants in Aberdeen, much of the management information comes from Bristol and it's those local MDs who really have the decisions to take.

Also, one of the first things I remember being taught was this. If you're in a lower margin business (e.g. 5%) then to make £100k bottom line benefit, you have two options. Save one vehicle OR make an additional £2m revenue.

As well as the well detailed mismanagement etc of the Blockhead era, I would point out that one area where Stagecoach have been really good is nailing down their cost base. If First had been better at that, the fleet would be more boring, less well specced, but ultimately, they'd have been in less of a mess now.

What is clear is that there is a squeeze on available capital (hence the new vehicle order is so much smaller) and therefore removal of time expired fleet is also dependant on an overall fleet reduction.

 

[Volvodart]

Cymru have cuts coming in January 2018.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Cymru have cuts coming in January 2018.

I’d not seen those - I stand corrected! Was posted a few days after I was last over there and not checked times since!!

 

[DragonEast]

I pointed out Kernow but are Eastern Counties or BoS or Cymru?

Eastern Counties have reduced significantly, from being a county-wide operator into basically Norwich and the eastern coastal fringe, with mainly inter-urban routes around Ipswich (in the growth areas) and the X1 (in exchange for West Norfolk basically). It is a good strategy executed brilliantly, but they lost out on Norwich P&R so I suspect they still haven't nailed down the cost base. But now that Norfolk are into cutting subsidy significantly, First are largely immune.

In First Essex they've gone with new depots and consolidation (taking advantage of new housing development opportunities). Well done again. They're winning tenders all over the place, so costs seem to have come down. But again I don't think they've nailed it. A small example, new depots but scrimping on bus washes in the open, so for half the year the fleet are filthy; and regularly unheated buses so one suspects the engineering bit is overwhelmed as well perhaps as underfunded. Small things matter, and First don't seem to think; they have initiatives but they're not joined up as with their neighbours. They seem to do half the job. (A P&R comparison may be instructive, First's in Chelmsford looks a bit shambolic compared to Arriva's slick operation in Colchester).They've a network which is half with out of date legacy mired in congestion, a large bit of what they can screw out of the County Council and serve conveniently from their depots (and they've managed to arrange it to really suit them, too, with I suspect a mutual benefit in costs to the Council as well as the operator!), and significant commercially supported new routes. So there is clearly an ambition to make the most out of the opportunities afforded by local circumstances (housing, housing, housing), and a big though disorganised emphasis on commuter growth, helped by laggard National Rail. (The X30's an example, new highly specced but low capacity vehicles for a rapidly expanding commuter base, First again seem to have missed the obvious). There's some really good stuff in there, but one gets the impression rather thrown together. It's lack of resources, I get it; but it smacks of spoiling the ship for the ha'worth of tar. If they just could, using BT's slogan (which they fail at too) "bring it all together". And lots of tweaking, and their parts manager getting national recognition for his efficiency; clearly some people are trying hard but it just seems that it dissipates somewhere along the line before the benefits reach the customers, like lone voices in the wilderness. One feels that with Stagecoach or Arriva you'd see the results; though not perhaps with the local eastern Go-Ahead OpCos unfortunately, to bring the discussion full circle! But you're right, neither of them have big cuts advertised yet. Just meanwhile the inevitable curates egg of a fleet.

 

[Robertj21a]

I pointed out Kernow but are Eastern Counties or BoS or Cymru?

Eastern Counties have reduced significantly, from being a county-wide operator into basically Norwich and the eastern coastal fringe, with mainly inter-urban routes around Ipswich (in the growth areas) and the X1 (in exchange for West Norfolk basically). It is a good strategy executed brilliantly, but they lost out on Norwich P&R so I suspect they still haven't nailed down the cost base. But now that Norfolk are into cutting subsidy significantly, First are largely immune.

In First Essex they've gone with new depots and consolidation (taking advantage of new housing development opportunities). Well done again. They're winning tenders all over the place, so costs seem to have come down. But again I don't think they've nailed it. A small example, new depots but scrimping on bus washes in the open, so for half the year the fleet are filthy; and regularly unheated buses so one suspects the engineering bit is overwhelmed as well perhaps as underfunded. Small things matter, and First don't seem to think; they have initiatives but they're not joined up as with their neighbours. They seem to do half the job. (A P&R comparison may be instructive, First's in Chelmsford looks a bit shambolic compared to Arriva's slick operation in Colchester).They've a network which is half with out of date legacy mired in congestion, a large bit of what they can screw out of the County Council and serve conveniently from their depots (and they've managed to arrange it to really suit them, too, with I suspect a mutual benefit in costs to the Council as well as the operator!), and significant commercially supported new routes. So there is clearly an ambition to make the most out of the opportunities afforded by local circumstances (housing, housing, housing), and a big though disorganised emphasis on commuter growth, helped by laggard National Rail. (The X30's an example, new highly specced but low capacity vehicles for a rapidly expanding commuter base, First again seem to have missed the obvious). There's some really good stuff in there, but one gets the impression rather thrown together. It's lack of resources, I get it; but it smacks of spoiling the ship for the ha'worth of tar. If they just could, using BT's slogan (which they fail at too) "bring it all together". And lots of tweaking, and their parts manager getting national recognition for his efficiency; clearly some people are trying hard but it just seems that it dissipates somewhere along the line before the benefits reach the customers, like lone voices in the wilderness. One feels that with Stagecoach or Arriva you'd see the results; though not perhaps with the local eastern Go-Ahead OpCos unfortunately, to bring the discussion full circle! But you're right, neither of them have big cuts advertised yet. Just meanwhile the inevitable curates egg of a fleet.

Haven't First Essex got some quite big cuts coming along shortly ?

 

[DragonEast]

Might be limited good news for FEx passengers then! With the amount of ten (less in peaks) and 15 minute frequencies which are impossible to achieve due to congestion, I'd think there should be the scope if they managed less resources better, and tackled reliability. Even more if they rationalised the network (though less hope of that). It'd help with the lack of drivers and perhaps the engineering issues.

 

[Lezlee]

I have heard some rumblings that there will be some route consolidations and a possible reduction of PVR in First Essex by the end of February. Of course it is speculative until we see the notices and proceedings, which will need to be submitted this month to make the changes on time.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Might be limited good news for FEx passengers then! With the amount of ten (less in peaks) and 15 minute frequencies which are impossible to achieve due to congestion, I'd think there should be the scope if they managed less resources better, and tackled reliability. Even more if they rationalised the network (though less hope of that). It'd help with the lack of drivers and perhaps the engineering issues.

It strikes to the nub of the issue with congestion. Do you put in more resource (more cost for the same revenue) or keep the same resource and widen the headway.

I never have much reason to travel to Essex (despite half my lineage being from the county) so can't comment on how good, bad or indifferent they are. Believe that a cull of the old Solos is due though.

At a tangent, was really interesting to see the pecking order of First West Yorkshire. Clearly, Leeds is the powerbase and they have the majority of the new fleet with Streetdecks and e400mmcs joining the Olympic era e400s and B9s, though some of the single decks are older. Bradford, Huddersfield and Halifax have a few newer B7RLEs and Streetlites split between them. Bradford fleet generally has newer fleet on major routes, Huddersfield that bit older and Halifax still older again, using B10BLEs on major routes!

 

[KendalKing]

At a tangent, was really interesting to see the pecking order of First West Yorkshire. Clearly, Leeds is the powerbase and they have the majority of the new fleet with Streetdecks and e400mmcs joining the Olympic era e400s and B9s, though some of the single decks are older. Bradford, Huddersfield and Halifax have a few newer B7RLEs and Streetlites split between them. Bradford fleet generally has newer fleet on major routes, Huddersfield that bit older and Halifax still older again, using B10BLEs on major routes!

As a regular visitor to Yorkshire, I can confirm that bus services in Leeds are indeed, a lot busier then in Huddersfied or Halifax.

 

[DragonEast]

It strikes to the nub of the issue with congestion. Do you put in more resource (more cost for the same revenue) or keep the same resource and widen the headway.

Yep, though I suspect it's not such a simple equation, nor the same answer everywhere. Essex have put in more resource, and things got worse. It's not hard to see why, on the ground. Trouble is the congestion means that easily provides more buses running together, so less on other parts of the route, and more buses means more complex to regulate easily, and produce more congestion too. But most importantly it doesn't mean more passengers, but more empty buses delayed and stuck in traffic. And for a passenger a published ten minute frequency on a route where you have to wait 40 minutes or an hour means nothing; even a half hour frequency which you had a better chance of keeping to would be better (and could give more headway - and even more importantly drivers more time when changing routes! It's amazing the number of buses without drivers). And legacy routes from the 1950s (rather than shorter routes) also maximise the impact of congestion in some cases. First do however seem to specialise in this sort of one size fits all rather academic theoretical approach rather than intelligent practical local solutions! You either I suppose have a good local control, or you don't, for any company; but with First it just seems that you get stuck with it!

 

[317 forever]

Go Ahead's London ops are a mixed bag. The depots/routes from the old London Central/London General area tend to be well run (Merton and Putney depots in particular), the only negative I really have with them are those rancid MCV double deckers they're apparently standardising on

Their ops in East London though are really bad. They've ran the 147 into the ground (always seems to be loads of buses on layover at each end), and are starting to do the same thing with the 5 and 115. Stagecoach did a fantastic job on these routes, and get *rewarded* by losing them en masse. Long live the TFL tender system.

The 193 in Romford still largely makes do with ancient Marshall bodied Darts, with no replacement in sight. These buses were battered beyond belief by 2012, how they've lasted another 5 years probably involves some sort of black magic.

Route 193 does indeed currently use ex-First Marshalls but this is probably their final Christmas. It is currently out for tender with its next contract due to start next September. If another operator such as Arriva win it they would use their own vehicles. Even if Go-Ahead retain it, they would probably use mini-Enviro 200s currently on route W4 (ironically also ex-First) or maybe Streetlites currently on route 491.

 

[Anthony ross]

I live in Essex and I won't and wouldn't use any service run by first Essex due to there poor service and constantly late services and sometimes very ignorant drivers

 

[F Great Eastern]

What happened with the X30 in Essex was laughable,

Replaced the 45 seat coaches with Enviro 200s that technically hold approx 30 passengers but normally end up less than that because seats are blocked off with luggage whilst still charging coach prices.

Now they're drafting cascaded deckers in because of the fact the new buses are far too low capacity less than a year after their introduction and therefore completely wasted money on buying new vehicles for it in the first place.

 

[Volvodart]

An unpainted single doored Enviro400MMC with First on the white LED screen said to be Scania for First Glasgow route 75 has been seen at ADL Falkirk.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/70333100@N08/38247538064/

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Yep, though I suspect it's not such a simple equation, nor the same answer everywhere. Essex have put in more resource, and things got worse. It's not hard to see why, on the ground. Trouble is the congestion means that easily provides more buses running together, so less on other parts of the route, and more buses means more complex to regulate easily, and produce more congestion too. But most importantly it doesn't mean more passengers, but more empty buses delayed and stuck in traffic. And for a passenger a published ten minute frequency on a route where you have to wait 40 minutes or an hour means nothing; even a half hour frequency which you had a better chance of keeping to would be better (and could give more headway - and even more importantly drivers more time when changing routes! It's amazing the number of buses without drivers). And legacy routes from the 1950s (rather than shorter routes) also maximise the impact of congestion in some cases. First do however seem to specialise in this sort of one size fits all rather academic theoretical approach rather than intelligent practical local solutions! You either I suppose have a good local control, or you don't, for any company; but with First it just seems that you get stuck with it!

Can’t comment on the specifics of First Essex but was chatting to one of my friends who works for another bus group. They have done exactly as I describe so 10 min frequency becomes every 12, or every 12 goes to every 15. However, as each journey has to carry more people, they do have to tweak the running times as well.

These are realities of running buses and even he admits there’s not a great deal of good news in the industry.

 

[overthewater]

An unpainted single doored Enviro400MMC with First on the white LED screen said to be Scania for First Glasgow route 75 has been seen at ADL Falkirk.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/70333100@N08/38247538064/

So that one of the new 25 E400MMC from the scottish green bus fund.

 

[Volvodart]

Not necessarily. The extra bus for the 500 recently delivered was not subject to green bus funding. Someone suggested the green bus funded ones were to be part of next year's order.

 

[route101]

An unpainted single doored Enviro400MMC with First on the white LED screen said to be Scania for First Glasgow route 75 has been seen at ADL Falkirk.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/70333100@N08/38247538064/

Interesting , didnt think Glasgow was getting anything new . Glasgow seems to get these E400mmcs rather than streetdecks .

 

[156478]

An unpainted single doored Enviro400MMC with First on the white LED screen said to be Scania for First Glasgow route 75 has been seen at ADL Falkirk.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/70333100@N08/38247538064/

Expensive brand new buses for a notorious route constantly plagued by vandalism, makes sense!

 

[Volvodart]

I am sure they know what they are doing. At least they are getting new buses!

 

[THarris123]

What will the Scanias replace? E400s?

 

[Volvodart]

Hopefully a start to getting rid of the Tridents.

 

[overthewater]

I'm surprised the 25 green bus order has gone past people, I'm also surprised that no one has clicked that money from the scottish government is being spent on Scottish buses. I do wonder if First decided that since it's getting 25 that it might be cheaper to bolt on extra orders? Again before the E400 there Alx400, so were a long way away from getting rid of E400. There are plenty of routes within Glasgow there could go on like the 4s.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'm surprised the 25 green bus order has gone past people, I'm also surprised that no one has clicked that money from the scottish government is being spent on Scottish buses. I do wonder if First decided that since it's getting 25 that it might be cheaper to bolt on extra orders? Again before the E400 there Alx400, so were a long way away from getting rid of E400. There are plenty of routes within Glasgow there could go on like the 4s.

Not quite certain exactly what you’re driving at.

As First haven’t been forthcoming with their new vehicle orders, it’s not apparent what is going where or what cascades/direct replacement will take place.

Leeds got a healthy intake last year with some old stuff going but 2012 B9s heading to Norfolk as well. Of course, Leeds are due to receive more new deckers but Streetdecks rather than e400s so sharing the love around!

 

[overthewater]

It's partly the fact people are wondering why streetlites are not being bough, even after it was stated more than once in this thread E400MMC were Coming. Plus why would E400 be getting replaced, when end of life tridents badly need scrapping in the que. It is a shock there are more than 25 on order but of course it would make since to bolt any extras on to the current order. Since First are trying to keep same fleet in the same depots. Mind you I wouldn't turn my nose up to any same 2012 stock to help glasgow

 

[THarris123]

It's partly the fact people are wondering why streetlites are not being bough, even after it was stated more than once in this thread E400MMC were Coming. Plus why would E400 be getting replaced, when end of life tridents badly need scrapping in the que. It is a shock there are more than 25 on order but of course it would make since to bolt any extras on to the current order. Since First are trying to keep same fleet in the same depots. Mind you I wouldn't turn my nose up to any same 2012 stock to help glasgow

Sorry how much have you had to drink?

This is a little confusing.

I asked what would the Scanias replace directly on 75 (or what I meant anyway). That could be E400s. I have no idea. Those E400s might replace old stock or be cascaded elsewhere.

First don't like to keep the same vehicles in the same depots - look at how E400s have taken on Bristol routes, when most routes used to have Wright products.

 

[overthewater]

Sorry how much have you had to drink?
This is a little confusing.
I asked what would the Scanias replace directly on 75 (or what I meant anyway). That could be E400s. I have no idea. Those E400s might replace old stock or be cascaded elsewhere.
First don't like to keep the same vehicles in the same depots - look at how E400s have taken on Bristol routes, when most routes used to have Wright products.

Non, so please do be so impertinent. You never once said No75: you said:

What will the Scanias replace? E400s?

That what you meant but we have to guess that? then question my post as confusing.

First don't like to keep the same vehicles in the same depots - look at how E400s have taken on Bristol routes, when most routes used to have Wright products.

Again it's been stated Fig has a much higher average age of fleet compared to elsewhere, Even when Glasgow get its 25 new buses for this year or whenever, it will still have life expired fleet in use and in 2018 will still have the same problem; 17 years old buses still in full front line operation. Next year there is 60 - 51 plate Single deckers that will need to be shipped out, or either First will have to increase the age limted again from 17 years to 18 years.

It will be a never ending fleet replacement within Glasgow then, trying to get rid 17 years old buses. I doubt Andrew Jarvis wants to go down that road. Ie let have a more sensible replacement policy.

 

[Robertj21a]

Non, so please do be so impertinent. You never once said No75: you said:


That what you meant but we have to guess that? then question my post as confusing.



Again it's been stated Fig has a much higher average age of fleet compared to elsewhere, Even when Glasgow get its 25 new buses for this year or whenever, it will still have life expired fleet in use and in 2018 will still have the same problem; 17 years old buses still in full front line operation. Next year there is 60 - 51 plate Single deckers that will need to be shipped out, or either First will have to increase the age limted again from 17 years to 18 years.

It will be a never ending fleet replacement within Glasgow then, trying to get rid 17 years old buses. I doubt Andrew Jarvis wants to go down that road. Ie let have a more sensible replacement policy.

There is no age limit of 17 years. The only relevance of '17 years' is that First Group accountants extended the depreciation period to 17 years for the 'heavyweight' buses in the group.

 

[smtglasgow]

I’m sure First have a fleet replacement plan for Glasgow! New buses are great, but I suspect that cascades will play a significant part – maybe some of the buses displaced by Leeds? Glasgow’s older buses tend to be on the weaker routes (although not always!), so you would expect mid-life stock to arrive for these. However, too many old Tridents escape onto the prime Simplicity routes and busy services like the 18 deserve better. But a few new buses is a start…