First Group: General Discussion

[TheGrandWazoo]

Whilst Rotala Bristol presence has been significantly reduced, Rotala presence in Bath has actually increased through a few tender wins & their commercial offerings. Whilst the 14 is being withdrawn, it was an additional service to their previous offerings.

People in deprived areas still need to travel for various reasons and you would expect them to use the cheapest mode of transport possible, which should be travelling by bus. With more people in those deprived areas not being in the position to run a car, I would have expected demand for the bus to still be pretty high

In terms of Rotala in Bath, it depends on your reference period. If you're looking at the last year, they've gained an extra working on an existing, expanded tendered route and registered what was a tendered service for 2 vehicles from one of the Park and Rides. That said, they also lost a tendered service to Stagecoach for two vehicles so almost parity. However, compare with 2013 and they have withdrawn competitive services in the city (Whiteway and Southdown), tenders to Radstock, and whilst they're still running to the University, it is clear that First have now got the upper hand there.

The Wessex fleet was 130+ vehicles in 2013; now its less than 90.

As you say "People in deprived areas still need to travel for various reasons" - that's the key point. You have people whose need has either massively reduced (e.g. unemployment, sickness etc) so they're not travelling every day as if they were going to work. Also, you have people who have less money; they don't travel unless it is necessary.

It is one of the great counter intuitives of life. When recessions come, people expect bus patronage to go up and forego their cars when the truth is that patronage goes down.

 

[BBC]

Just been awarded the south west trains franchise. Good news !

 

[Blackpudding]

They are, but the Stagecoach cuts are just as significant.

You are spot on that it is all about Stagecoach cuts this time round. The First cuts are insignificant. Then again it looks like the article is straight out of the Manchester Evening News who also look for a negative transport story in my opinion.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

You are spot on that it is all about Stagecoach cuts this time round. The First cuts are insignificant. Then again it looks like the article is straight out of the Manchester Evening News who also look for a negative transport story in my opinion.

It's been some years since I lived in the area (the beautiful garden village of Tyldesley) but are a number of those First changes relating to the closure of Bury depot, so truncating short or running dead from Bolton depot to Tottington rather than from Bury?

Also, is the V3 essentially replaced by an extended V1/2 when Oxford Road works are done?

Genuine questions

 

[Blackpudding]

It's been some years since I lived in the area (the beautiful garden village of Tyldesley) but are a number of those First changes relating to the closure of Bury depot, so truncating short or running dead from Bolton depot to Tottington rather than from Bury?

Also, is the V3 essentially replaced by an extended V1/2 when Oxford Road works are done?

Genuine questions

350 down to the closure of Tameside and being run from Oldham.
468/471 and 524 as you suggest due to the closure of Bury and being run from Bolton.
95 due to the closure of Bury and the assumption it will be run by Queens (but it could be Bolton).
As you say V3 being replaced by V1 being extended to MRI from Leigh but direct not via Piccadilly. V2 is also being extended to MRI direct but from Atherton. I believe a number of peak hour buses will continue to serve Picc. on both services. I stand to be corrected but I think that was always the aspiration.

I think that covers it but the short answer is yes. Be aware I did say this time round - it may be a whole different ball game at the next couple of timetable changes (July and September) following a number of network reviews earlier this year.

'The beautiful garden village of Tyldesley' Hmm! I assume that's where they grow 'rose' coloured spectacles then?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

350 down to the closure of Tameside and being run from Oldham.
468/471 and 524 as you suggest due to the closure of Bury and being run from Bolton.
95 due to the closure of Bury and the assumption it will be run by Queens (but it could be Bolton).
As you say V3 being replaced by V1 being extended to MRI from Leigh but direct not via Piccadilly. V2 is also being extended to MRI direct but from Atherton. I believe a number of peak hour buses will continue to serve Picc. on both services. I stand to be corrected but I think that was always the aspiration.

I think that covers it but the short answer is yes. Be aware I did say this time round - it may be a whole different ball game at the next couple of timetable changes (July and September) following a number of network reviews earlier this year.

'The beautiful garden village of Tyldesley' Hmm! I assume that's where they grow 'rose' coloured spectacles then?

I suspect you're right - get the closures out the way, see how the trading looks, then see what's what.

Tyldesley - an oddly popular night out, even luring Leigh-thers in. Best described as "lively"

 

[THarris123]

There are lots of businesses that are cutting overhead. This isn't news and whilst First are getting attention, all the major groups are doing it in various places. Look at Go Ahead in East Anglia or how their Wiltshire ops have contracted over time. Stagecoach wielding the axe in Fife and now in Somerset and Devon. Arriva in the Midlands not just Burton. It's a tough industry at the moment - just got to see now many firms have gone to the wall.

Of the ones you mention, the Ruthin service was part of GHA, taken over on an emergency tender IIRC. The North Devon services have recently seen cuts from Stagecoach on the main corridor. Plymouth was a pup from the moment Moir authorised the ill fated incursion against PCB. However, look at the rest of First in the West and it's one more of restoration:

Hastened the demise of Western Greyhound
Finally saw Webberbus go pop
Have re-established operations in North Cornwall winning work from Stagecoach and a bolt on acquisition
Currently seeing off Crosville on commercial routes in Weston super Mare
Have forced Rotala to massively reduce their presence in Bristol and Bath
Taken over the remaining Stagecoach Somerset service to Chard

However, fair to say that they've some pretty difficult challenges in their Northern ops. A ONS study highlighted that of the 10 most deprived areas in the UK, 3 (Rochdale, Oldham and Salford) were First Manchester centres. If the towns are on their a*se, it won't be great for bus travel.

Can we establish why First S&A and Bristol were dropping profits at the end of March 2016? Do we think that they will improve since end of Webberbus and timetable changes? Or maybe more cuts?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Can we establish why First S&A and Bristol were dropping profits at the end of March 2016? Do we think that they will improve since end of Webberbus and timetable changes? Or maybe more cuts?

Webberbus would only have had a minimal impact on FWoE.

Without a detailed P&L, it's difficult to say what any issue is or was. Remember that they had to put 10 extra vehicles into the network because of congestion so do the maths! They now been taken back out now.

 

[Blackpudding]

I suspect you're right - get the closures out the way, see how the trading looks, then see what's what.

Tyldesley - an oddly popular night out, even luring Leigh-thers in. Best described as "lively"

'an oddly popular night out' - you need help!!

Anyways I meant to post this link which may be helpful detailing the changes.

https://www.firstgroup.com/greater-...-changes/service-changes-greater-manchester-5

 

[daodao]

You are spot on that it is all about Stagecoach cuts this time round. The First cuts are insignificant. Then again it looks like the article is straight out of the Manchester Evening News who also look for a negative transport story in my opinion.

Only a few of the Stagecoach cuts could be considered significant, namely the truncation of the 378 at Grove Lane and no longer running to Wilmslow, and complete withdrawal of the 109 to Wythenshawe Hospital.

The 109 is a historic route; it was formerly number 44 and ran to Baguley Sanatorium, and used the the number previously assigned to the Piccadilly-Southern Cemetery tram route that ran along the Princess Road central reservation up to 1947. Ironically, its withdrawal is properly due to the new tram route via Baguley, which runs every 12 minutes (the bus service is half-hourly) and has just been extended to the edge of the city centre. There will still be a bus (new route 102) from Manchester via Princess Road and Wythenshawe Civic Centre to Wythenshawe Hospital, albeit a more roundabout route.

The recent withdrawal of the Seymour Grove bus route (number 84, formerly 94 and before that tram route 37) is likely also to have been partly due to the Metrolink services to Chorlton.

 

[the101]

Without a detailed P&L, it's difficult to say what any issue is or was. Remember that they had to put 10 extra vehicles into the network because of congestion so do the maths! They now been taken back out now.

First also increased drivers' wages in Bristol substantially not too long ago, which will have contributed. If they did the same for engineers I wouldn't be surprised, as they were having terrible trouble employing enough of them at one point.

 

[DragonEast]

Are we losing the point? Every bus company will adapt its services to local market conditions, or it won't last long. They worry about First was, I thought, a potential significant PVR cut across the board, irrespective of any local market conditions. I'm not sure that is everyone else's game.

In defence, though, I suspect the local operating company that can't take a10% cut without majorly affecting passengers, hasn't been invented yet. The easy solution to any problem is to throw more buses at it. Management have to be cleverer than that. Is a reduction from five or six to four buses an hour, or even, four to three, or three to two, an unmitigated disaster? Yes, if you can never change anything or put up with any inconvenience. That's not how most of us have to live our lives, except perhaps from the comfort of an armchair. It is, though; if your three, four, five or six buses an hour actually leave you waiting near to an hour or longer; that's often poor management. Congestion is an excuse, you have to work around it. That's what local management is for.

 

[Blackpudding]

Thanks, daodao, for the clarification. Appreciate the history of the routes as well - great stuff.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

'an oddly popular night out' - you need help!!

Anyways I meant to post this link which may be helpful detailing the changes.

https://www.firstgroup.com/greater-...-changes/service-changes-greater-manchester-5

Thanks for the link

I lived in Tyldesley for a bit. What I couldn't fathom was why people seemed to head from Leigh/Atherton and further for a night out there? I had an excuse - what was theirs??

The total cost of the busway was £122m so you get a much higher frequency for a lower capital cost. Other advantages are protection of the alignment for the future and a fair chunk of the spend was for bus priority etc that benefits many more services. Sadly, I've not travelled on it yet. That said, since splitting with that particular lady, I've not felt the need to revisit Tyldesley

Back to Bristol, you're right that they did hike the pay rates up. They had to as they were having to bring drivers in on either agency rates or from other First opcos. So total pay cost will have gone up but exactly how and where, the detail isn't provided.

As I said, in early 2015, First Bristol put in an extra 10 vehicles into the PVR to maintain timetables. That's 10 extra vehicles plus probably 12-15 drivers and for little additional revenue. That's why you can see why operators are widening headways to cope with the increasing congestion in Britain's town and cities.

 

[smtglasgow]

I see that Essex and Eastern Counties have some limited expansion over the next few months. Essex return to Brightlingsea next week, while Eastern Counties return to Bungay in May. Neither move is resource-heavy, but both attack Go-Ahead, and seem at odds with the rumbles about across the board pvr cuts. AFAIK, Go-Ahead East Anglia is still performing very badly, so perhaps a sign that First is scenting blood?

 

[overthewater]

Are we losing the point? Every bus company will adapt its services to local market conditions, or it won't last long. They worry about First was, I thought, a potential significant PVR cut across the board, irrespective of any local market conditions. I'm not sure that is everyone else's game.

In defence, though, I suspect the local operating company that can't take a10% cut without majorly affecting passengers, hasn't been invented yet. The easy solution to any problem is to throw more buses at it. Management have to be cleverer than that. Is a reduction from five or six to four buses an hour, or even, four to three, or three to two, an unmitigated disaster? Yes, if you can never change anything or put up with any inconvenience. That's not how most of us have to live our lives, except perhaps from the comfort of an armchair. It is, though; if your three, four, five or six buses an hour actually leave you waiting near to an hour or longer; that's often poor management. Congestion is an excuse, you have to work around it. That's what local management is for.

Yes, alot of peoples to have forgotten about that, I do believe more companies are not adapting fast enough to better meet the local market conditions. I rememeber in the late 90s there cuts and then improvements, there were more cuts around 2007-2009 but many others had BRDG money, so that resulted in some areas bypassing the cuts.

I see that Essex and Eastern Counties have some limited expansion over the next few months. Essex return to Brightlingsea next week, while Eastern Counties return to Bungay in May. Neither move is resource-heavy, but both attack Go-Ahead, and seem at odds with the rumbles about across the board pvr cuts. AFAIK, Go-Ahead East Anglia is still performing very badly, so perhaps a sign that First is scenting blood?

If First can sense blood let them have there cake, others already done so to First. Mind you I will never understand why Go-Ahead brought those companies in Suffolk or Essex, seems like there saw chance to land grab and paid any price for it. There were better place to land grab like Rota??

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Yes, alot of peoples to have forgotten about that, I do believe more companies are not adapting fast enough to better meet the local market conditions. I rememeber in the late 90s there cuts and then improvements, there were more cuts around 2007-2009 but many others had BRDG money, so that resulted in some areas bypassing the cuts.




If First can sense blood let them have there cake, others already done so to First. Mind you I will never understand why Go-Ahead brought those companies in Suffolk or Essex, seems like there saw chance to land grab and paid any price for it. There were better place to land grab like Rota??

You sometimes think that bus companies can't win though. Change quickly - then accusations of knee jerk reactions, lack of stability etc. Don't change quickly enough - accusations of complacency, managing decline etc.

Don't get me wrong - there are justified accusations but it is a balance to be struck.

As for the rumours of diktats demanding mileage cuts, well that was the case in the Moir days. These days, it's more nuanced. We're seeing depot closures and service cuts in those depressed Northern towns (apologies to any clayheads that I've put in the North) but not seeing it in the South to the same extent. Again, perhaps it's more reflective of ailing economies vs the more buoyant south and the requirement to cut their cloth.

It certainly does look like First are scenting blood in the East having already eroded the Anglian Bus operations fairly extensively

 

[overthewater]

You sometimes think that bus companies can't win though. Change quickly - then accusations of knee jerk reactions, lack of stability etc. Don't change quickly enough - accusations of complacency, managing decline etc.

Don't get me wrong - there are justified accusations but it is a balance to be struck.

Although your right but the recent changes in the market forces have been rather rapid and unfortunately some places have been caught on the back foot.

Its only going to get worse, there just been a steep increase in people using home shopping services from just 8 years ago.

 

[KendalKing]

Thanks for the link

The total cost of the busway was £122m so you get a much higher frequency for a lower capital cost. Other advantages are protection of the alignment for the future and a fair chunk of the spend was for bus priority etc that benefits many more services. Sadly, I've not travelled on it yet. That said, since splitting with that particular lady, I've not felt the need to revisit Tyldesley

I have had the pleasure, of having a ride on it, Unfortunately, I found the ride quality not to be as good as the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway.

 

[KendalKing]

Its only going to get worse, there just been a steep increase in people using home shopping services from just 8 years ago.

Following the 70% cuts in my local Stagecoach bus services, we now do our shopping online, as it is impossible to get to ASDA and back in a day. Due to the increase in the number of people doing online shopping, we have to wait upto three days for our shopping to be delivered. We order our shopping on Monday evening, which will be delivered on Thursday, as ASDA and other supermarkets are struggling to keep up with the demand.

 

[mic]

350 down to the closure of Tameside and being run from Oldham.
468/471 and 524 as you suggest due to the closure of Bury and being run from Bolton.
95 due to the closure of Bury and the assumption it will be run by Queens (but it could be Bolton).
As you say V3 being replaced by V1 being extended to MRI from Leigh but direct not via Piccadilly. V2 is also being extended to MRI direct but from Atherton. I believe a number of peak hour buses will continue to serve Picc. on both services. I stand to be corrected but I think that was always the aspiration.

I think that covers it but the short answer is yes. Be aware I did say this time round - it may be a whole different ball game at the next couple of timetable changes (July and September) following a number of network reviews earlier this year.

'The beautiful garden village of Tyldesley' Hmm! I assume that's where they grow 'rose' coloured spectacles then?

with 350 more early am weekday services with be starting at Oldham

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Following the 70% cuts in my local Stagecoach bus services, we now do our shopping online, as it is impossible to get to ASDA and back in a day. Due to the increase in the number of people doing online shopping, we have to wait upto three days for our shopping to be delivered. We order our shopping on Monday evening, which will be delivered on Thursday, as ASDA and other supermarkets are struggling to keep up with the demand.

Mmmm, seems like supermarket management have as a disdainful view of their customers as bus co managers. Let them wait for their shopping, why invest in more home delivery staff / vehicles. Let them wait for the next one, why invest in more vehicles.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Are we losing the point? Every bus company will adapt its services to local market conditions, or it won't last long. They worry about First was, I thought, a potential significant PVR cut across the board, irrespective of any local market conditions. I'm not sure that is everyone else's game.

In defence, though, I suspect the local operating company that can't take a10% cut without majorly affecting passengers, hasn't been invented yet. The easy solution to any problem is to throw more buses at it. Management have to be cleverer than that. Is a reduction from five or six to four buses an hour, or even, four to three, or three to two, an unmitigated disaster? Yes, if you can never change anything or put up with any inconvenience. That's not how most of us have to live our lives, except perhaps from the comfort of an armchair. It is, though; if your three, four, five or six buses an hour actually leave you waiting near to an hour or longer; that's often poor management. Congestion is an excuse, you have to work around it. That's what local management is for.

Surely the point is, a frequency of six buses an hour attracts a certain number of customers. A frequency of five buses an hour attracts a certain (lower) number of customers, and so on. To a point where the service simply isn't attractive anymore. You retain some of your existing customers but gain no new ones, and the next reduction becomes inevitable. Until you have one bus running out of the bus station, around the block, and back into the bus station, and the management wonder why they can't make their 10% profit.

Surely 5% on £10m turnover is better than 10% on £5m, as you've kept a bigger base market to grow in future.

Waiting 30 minutes (timetabled not delayed) for a 15 minute bus ride home is not attractive. Being able to get to work by bus, but not home again, is not attractive.

This debt mountain that First have, where did it come from and where did the money go? If I buy a house for £100,000 and run into hard times I still have an asset of £100,000 to sell and pay off the debt. Shrinking the overall First business means what is left has to work harder to pay off the unreduced debt.

 

[Volvodart]

This debt mountain that First have, where did it come from and where did the money go? If I buy a house for £100,000 and run into hard times I still have an asset of £100,000 to sell and pay off the debt. Shrinking the overall First business means what is left has to work harder to pay off the unreduced debt.

Laidlaw. This is quite a good summary of the problems it created:-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10069610/FirstGroup-has-been-haunted-by-a-deal-agreed-in-2007.html

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Laidlaw. This is quite a good summary of the problems it created:-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10069610/FirstGroup-has-been-haunted-by-a-deal-agreed-in-2007.html

What an interesting read. If only I had one that large to wave around.

 

[DragonEast]

If First can sense blood let them have there cake, others already done so to First. Mind you I will never understand why Go-Ahead brought those companies in Suffolk or Essex, seems like there saw chance to land grab and paid any price for it. There were better place to land grab like Rota??

Could be interesting. If Go-Ahead have an asset in East Anglia it's their drivers retained from the Independents days. That matters to people outside the bigger towns. First are much more a mixed bag. That matters, beyond the pure statistics.

As to why Go-Ahead wanted at least Anglian to start with, I just wonder if it's anything to do with the prospect of Sizewell, v3 or whatever? Are the mass transit operations the way to make money? (See First and the admittedly on/off Hinkley Point, perhaps). Which illustrates the problem, it's a long wait. Too long, probably.

I just wonder too: how does declining travel due to home shopping etc. square with increasing congestion? From observations (in the south, at least) people seem to be going out as much as ever. Is it more that the nature is changing - more recreation, for which perhaps bus services are less suitable? Especially when we try to do several things together not so much one thing = one journey. Did many people though use buses for superstore shopping, ever? Their "free" bus services never seemed to me to be too popular, and seem to have declined even more quickly than the fare-paying services. Perhaps it's the young-retired growing expotentially!!

 

[Robertj21a]

Sounds like the new bus orders for First were only finalised in the last few days. I've no idea how many buses are being ordered but it seems that they will be only allocated to a *very* small number of operating units.

My personal *guess* would be that Bristol and West Yorkshire must be the favourites.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Surprised that no-one has mentioned the latest update from Stagecoach http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/lo...agecoach-Group-PLC-Trading-Statement/74208330

The UK Bus statement says "Total like-for-like passenger journeys fell by 1.7% in the UK Bus (regional operations) Division, largely as a result of weak underlying local economic conditions in some parts of the UK and sustained lower fuel prices. We continually review and adjust our bus networks in response to changing demand."

Note that First's latest update stated their journeys had fallen by 1.3%. An indication of how hard it is for everyone out there.

 

[THarris123]

Sounds like the new bus orders for First were only finalised in the last few days. I've no idea how many buses are being ordered but it seems that they will be only allocated to a *very* small number of operating units.

My personal *guess* would be that Bristol and West Yorkshire must be the favourites.

I would've thought Glasgow would get a fair bit too. There are rumours around as well which seem very interesting, but I'm not going to admit what it is yet.

 

[overthewater]

I think 18th we might get something, The same Day Andew Javis joins First group.