First driverless truck delivery in the US

[BestWestern]

The concept isn't a gimmick, it is actually happening and it will make driving a huge deal more accessible in the long run. Like all disruptive tech, there will be teething problems and issues with international standards, but I don't see the concept as fundamentally flawed.

I'd certainly buy a driverless car.

I see 'making driving more accessible' as a flaw in itself. Combine this with slower moving vehicles and the result is gridlock.

 

[glbotu]

I see 'making driving more accessible' as a flaw in itself. Combine this with slower moving vehicles and the result is gridlock.

I'm going to take issue with this, because that's not how capacity works.

Slower vehicles result in greater capacity, because the stopping distance is smaller. In addition, driverless cars can drive closer together, because their thinking time is much less than yours or mine (or anyone's for that matter).



In general, this whole discussion seems to be stuck in the past, and I don't mean people unwilling to accept new technology, that is a function of humans. Scepticism has absolutely got its rightful place when it comes to new technologies and it's important that these things are discussed.

This discussion just seems to have completely ignored the fact that driverless cars are being live-tested in California in as many situations as can be imagined and are interacting with humans (both those in other vehicles and those on foot) and animals on a daily basis, right now. Driverless cars already drive, under no human control, in small streets in big cities. The Google cars have done fantastically at pretty much every situation they've been presented with (that is, all scenarios encountered when driving around Northern California, including, but very much not limited to the City of San Francisco). Their only accidents have so far been when the human took over.

The barriers now are

a) International legal acceptance
b) How to deal with the very powerful car lobby.
c) How to deal with moral* decisions (ie: if there is no mathematically computable way of not killing someone**, who do you kill? Do you force the human on board to make the decision? What if there is no human on board?)
d) Acceptance by people who want to keep driving.

The "interface" with humans is not a problem and hasn't been for quite some time (since at least 2011, when the first cars went out for test).

*For want of a better word
** Although it is notable that these scenarios would be less likely with a machine driving than a human, because the machine can calculate a lot more things and see a lot further than a human can.

 

[Dave1987]

There was an article about this recently in MR mag. Tesla was very proudly showing off its "driverless" car (it isn't actually driverless) in California. When asked by journalists why the car had crashed into a truck they were very very reluctant to admit what had happened. Turns out the sensors on board had been blinded by the sun reflecting of a white truck next to the car and there didn't appear to be an immediate solution to the problem. The other comments that were made in the article said about how the US freeway network are very very different to the UK motorway network. To believe we are anywhere near "driverless" cars being a common sight on the UK road network is living in a fantasy world to be honest. The complexity of the UK road network means it poses the automation challenges they may take many many more years to overcome. You may find you are able to take you hands off of the wheel and merely supervise the car but that it gives back control when the road situation is to complex for it to navigate safely, but that isn't a driverless car. In the perfect world or on test tracks yes driverless cars work fine now, but in the real world they are a few decades away yet.

 

[ac6000cw]

The other comments that were made in the article said about how the US freeway network are very very different to the UK motorway network. To believe we are anywhere near "driverless" cars being a common sight on the UK road network is living in a fantasy world to be honest. The complexity of the UK road network means it poses the automation challenges they may take many many more years to overcome. You may find you are able to take you hands off of the wheel and merely supervise the car but that it gives back control when the road situation is to complex for it to navigate safely, but that isn't a driverless car. In the perfect world or on test tracks yes driverless cars work fine now, but in the real world they are a few decades away yet.

Have you ever driven on the freeways in LA ? They are far worse than the M25 on a bad day - 6 or more lanes of nose-to-tail traffic in places, overtaking allowed on both sides (so lots of cars weaving about), short entrance ramps (and at frequent intervals), gung-ho drivers shooting diagonally across 4 lanes of traffic straight off the end of the entrance ramp - a grit-your-teeth driving nightmare (I take my hat off to the locals who have to deal with it every day). If driverless cars can cope with that they can easily cope with our motorways...

Driverless cars are not 'decades away' - Uber is testing them in an urban environment in Pittsburgh at the moment. Yes there will be all sorts of technical and legal issues to sort out before they can move beyond the real-world testing phase, but equally there is a lot of people and money being poured into developing them.

 

[PeterC]

I will be interested to see when a driverless car will be able to take me to an event at a country venue, understand which field to park in and understand which pedestrian is actually trying to show it where it must park.

 

[Dave1987]

Have you ever driven on the freeways in LA ? They are far worse than the M25 on a bad day - 6 or more lanes of nose-to-tail traffic in places, overtaking allowed on both sides (so lots of cars weaving about), short entrance ramps (and at frequent intervals), gung-ho drivers shooting diagonally across 4 lanes of traffic straight off the end of the entrance ramp - a grit-your-teeth driving nightmare (I take my hat off to the locals who have to deal with it every day). If driverless cars can cope with that they can easily cope with our motorways...

Driverless cars are not 'decades away' - Uber is testing them in an urban environment in Pittsburgh at the moment. Yes there will be all sorts of technical and legal issues to sort out before they can move beyond the real-world testing phase, but equally there is a lot of people and money being poured into developing them.

Well even the test cars aren't "driverless", even though they claim they are. Until I see a truly driverless car or lorry on the market I remain very sceptical as whether we will see actual driverless vehicles on the road. I believe "road trains" might be possible where a convoy of three or four lorries is controlled by the lead lorry along the motorway. This would enable the drivers in the rear lorries to be there i case a problem occurs but not needing complete concentration and they take over when they need to break off from the train. This would enable drivers hours to be extended. Things like that I can see real world implement in the near future. Truly driverless cars..... believe it when I see it.

 

[ac6000cw]

Truly driverless cars..... believe it when I see it.

DARPA in the US has been funding research 'challenges' for autonomous vehicles since 2004 - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge

The 2007 challenge was for urban navigation (on a closed site) - compared to today's technology (10 years is a long time in electronics and computing development) those vehicle control systems were primitive, but the finishers successfully navigated a 60 mile course.

(BBC 'Horizon' showed the 'The great Robot Race' programme about one of the earlier challenges in 2006, and there YouTube videos around of some of them).

 

[Dave1987]

DARPA in the US has been funding research 'challenges' for autonomous vehicles since 2004 - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge

The 2007 challenge was for urban navigation (on a closed site) - compared to today's technology (10 years is a long time in electronics and computing development) those vehicle control systems were primitive, but the finishers successfully navigated a 60 mile course.

(BBC 'Horizon' showed the 'The great Robot Race' programme about one of the earlier challenges in 2006, and there YouTube videos around of some of them).

like I said before when I see a truly driverless car on the market, I will then start to believe they are going to become prevalent. I certainly wouldn't trust a automated car anyway.

 

[talltim]

This amused me, exactly what I was I referring to earlier in the thread.
Driverless cars to be unmarked to stop motorists bullying them

A trial of driverless cars in London will avoid marking the vehicles in any way because of fears that motorists will bully the law-abiding robot cars.

 

[Dave1987]

This amused me, exactly what I was I referring to earlier in the thread.
Driverless cars to be unmarked to stop motorists bullying them

Watching that short film clip in the link all I could think is 'ow what a perfect world the tech boffins live in'. If anything that clip on how driverless cars work has made me even more convinced we are a long long way away from roads filled with driverless cars.

 

[talltim]

Watching that short film clip in the link all I could think is 'ow what a perfect world the tech boffins live in'. If anything that clip on how driverless cars work has made me even more convinced we are a long long way away from roads filled with driverless cars.

Especially when they drive on the wrong side of the road

 

[Cowley]

Watching that short film clip in the link all I could think is 'ow what a perfect world the tech boffins live in'. If anything that clip on how driverless cars work has made me even more convinced we are a long long way away from roads filled with driverless cars.

We probably are a long way away, probably 20 years away at least, maybe 30.
But it will happen because it's the obvious way that things are going to go.

 

[TheKnightWho]

The concept isn't a gimmick, it is actually happening and it will make driving a huge deal more accessible in the long run. Like all disruptive tech, there will be teething problems and issues with international standards, but I don't see the concept as fundamentally flawed.

I'd certainly buy a driverless car.

It does amaze me how some seem to be incredibly sceptical of things that have already been proven possible and have actually been demonstrated in the wild...

I'd love to see BestWestern's reaction to the hundreds of driverless car tests occurring, in often very complex and difficult traffic.
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Watching that short film clip in the link all I could think is 'ow what a perfect world the tech boffins live in'. If anything that clip on how driverless cars work has made me even more convinced we are a long long way away from roads filled with driverless cars.

By what measure? There are literally thousands of real-world tests going on per year, around real traffic.

 

[MarcVD]

It is quite a shame for the rail industry that driverless options are still almost inexistant for trains while it is already so advanced for road vehicles. It should be much easier to conceive driverless trains than driverless cars or trucks.

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[Dave1987]

It is quite a shame for the rail industry that driverless options are still almost inexistant for trains while it is already so advanced for road vehicles. It should be much easier to conceive driverless trains than driverless cars or trucks.

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Not really. The issues are just as numerous as with road vehicles.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

By what measure? There are literally thousands of real-world tests going on per year, around real traffic.

Yes I see from that article they are trying them in London but the less complicated parts. There are literally hundreds of what if's about the roads let alone about the cars themselves etc. In parliament they are discussing legislation for drivers being able to take their hands off the wheel not completely driverless. Like I said I can envisage lorries road training off of a lead lorry but truly driverless cars and lorries, believe it when I see them on the market.

 

[MarcVD]

Not really. The issues are just as numerous as with road vehicles.

Well at least you do not have to steer the vehicle, just adjust speed. And then even with a similar level of difficulty rail is still way behind road in terms of progress.


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[NSEFAN]

Yes I see from that article they are trying them in London but the less complicated parts. There are literally hundreds of what if's about the roads let alone about the cars themselves etc. In parliament they are discussing legislation for drivers being able to take their hands off the wheel not completely driverless. Like I said I can envisage lorries road training off of a lead lorry but truly driverless cars and lorries, believe it when I see them on the market.

Indeed, there won't be a mass introduction of fully automatic road vehicles overnight, but surely you can see that it will eventually happen once the technology is good enough?

Well at least you do not have to steer the vehicle, just adjust speed. And then even with a similar level of difficulty rail is still way behind road in terms of progress.

The driving itself is very straightforward, but the driver still has to pay attention in case there are obstructions ahead. I suspect that obstacle detection will also improve as time goes on however.

 

[Dave1987]

Well at least you do not have to steer the vehicle, just adjust speed. And then even with a similar level of difficulty rail is still way behind road in terms of progress.


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There are numerous situations where a driver is essential. Just driving from station to station is the easy part. It's all the abnormal out of course events you need to account for. There are numerous threads on this forum detailing the reasons why driverless trains aren't going to happen anytime soon.
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Indeed, there won't be a mass introduction of fully automatic road vehicles overnight, but surely you can see that it will eventually happen once the technology is good enough?

Once the tech is good enough and reliable enough with enough multiple redundancy built in and cheap enough then yes they might be common place. Will that happen in the next few decades? Who knows but I certainly remain to be convinced.

 

[NSEFAN]

Once the tech is good enough and reliable enough with enough multiple redundancy built in and cheap enough then yes they might be common place. Will that happen in the next few decades? Who knows but I certainly remain to be convinced.

I guess it will depend if it can be done cheap enough whilst being demonstrably as safe/safer than a human for the task at hand. The automotive industry is notorious amongst electronics engineers for wanting the reliability of aerospace products, but not wanting to pay for the triple redundancy and associated cost required to make it happen!

 

[WelshBluebird]

You miss the point. Drivers currently rely on the goodwill of others, giving up their 'priority' to let them in. Sometimes this is achieved by seizing on a gap, for example moving part of the way out at a roundabout, or half way across the road, whereupon an approaching driver will slow to let you proceed. There isn't a complete 'safe corridor' to go, you take the opportunity to create one when others allow. Robot car won't do that, because it is against the rules. It will sit at the Give Way line until it has a big wide safe gap in which it can go, without running any risk of getting in someone's way. It will sit there for a long time. So will everyone else behind it. As I said earlier, the puppetmasters slowly buying ownership of our souls really don't want their latest machine of domination causing accidents, because then they'd have to go and dream up something else instead.

You seem to be thinking about this in a very isolated way.

In terms of your roundabout example, what will eventually happen is that cars (both driverless and driven by humans) will communicate with each other, much much faster than the time it takes for you as a driver to notice a car just coming around the roundabout. So in terms of edging out into a roundabout, a driverclass car will be able to know exactly how far other cars on the roundabout are from it, how long it has until they pass, exactly how long the gap is etc and in cases where the gap isn't enough the cars could even communicate so that an oncoming car will slow down ever so slightly so that the incoming car now has a large enough gap.

Sure, that is a while off and will rely on driverless cars actually being on the roads. But what you will see (and we have already seen) is the addition of smart and driverless-light technologies to normal human drivable cars, until eventually a critical mass of "smart cars" has been reached and it then becomes possible to assume most cars are at the very least smart (and so can communicate with each other) which solves a large amount of the problem with mixing driverless and non driverless cars.

Of course, all of this will not happen overnight, and I do agree with some people here that the timelines will probably be longer than some others are predicting!

I see 'making driving more accessible' as a flaw in itself. Combine this with slower moving vehicles and the result is gridlock.

Except driverless cars will increase capacity, not decrease it.
Similar to railway signalling systems, the smarter they are, the smaller the gap needed between trains passing. Smart and driverless cars will eventually allow the same. At the moment stopping distances have to take into account human reaction times, eliminate that and you reduce the distance and time needed to stop / change direction.

 

[BestWestern]

You seem to be thinking about this in a very isolated way.

In terms of your roundabout example, what will eventually happen is that cars (both driverless and driven by humans) will communicate with each other, much much faster than the time it takes for you as a driver to notice a car just coming around the roundabout. So in terms of edging out into a roundabout, a driverclass car will be able to know exactly how far other cars on the roundabout are from it, how long it has until they pass, exactly how long the gap is etc and in cases where the gap isn't enough the cars could even communicate so that an oncoming car will slow down ever so slightly so that the incoming car now has a large enough gap.

Sure, that is a while off and will rely on driverless cars actually being on the roads. But what you will see (and we have already seen) is the addition of smart and driverless-light technologies to normal human drivable cars, until eventually a critical mass of "smart cars" has been reached and it then becomes possible to assume most cars are at the very least smart (and so can communicate with each other) which solves a large amount of the problem with mixing driverless and non driverless cars.

Of course, all of this will not happen overnight, and I do agree with some people here that the timelines will probably be longer than some others are predicting!



Except driverless cars will increase capacity, not decrease it.
Similar to railway signalling systems, the smarter they are, the smaller the gap needed between trains passing. Smart and driverless cars will eventually allow the same. At the moment stopping distances have to take into account human reaction times, eliminate that and you reduce the distance and time needed to stop / change direction.

Some very sensible points there. Regarding capacity though, I'm still not convinced. These machines all need to go home and park up somewhere! That's already a big problem in many places.

 

[glbotu]

Some very sensible points there. Regarding capacity though, I'm still not convinced. These machines all need to go home and park up somewhere! That's already a big problem in many places.

Except they don't. There are several options here:

1. There are physically fewer cars, cars are shared. When one person's not using one, someone else is (this is the Uber model of driverless cars).

2. Cars go and find parking somewhere less convenient. They just "drop off" their passengers before driving to some location 10 mins away where there's greater parking capacity.