NotATrainspott
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- 2 Feb 2013
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I'm not sure if it was ever published publicly as it was commissioned for the city council and Scottish government, but I'll have a look. It was called 'long term outcomes of expected population growth in the Edinburgh city region and the Lothians" and it's section 7 which is public works planning and outcomes.
The problem we found with Gullane was that it was never really needed, as the housing that will eventually be built there is mainly exclusive and expensive. The buyers and indeed current residents have cars and can easily reach the parking at Longniddry or Prestonpans (both to be expanded significantly in coming years) or even drive into Edinburgh itself.
Haddington is unique in that it has an existing track formation and would benefit significantly from a rail suggestion, but reopening the link doesn't benefit anywhere other than Haddington itself. Haddington also exists in somewhat more of a bubble compared to North Berwick and Gullane, with a far smaller number of people commuting into the city.
Reopening would be easy if costly and the length of such a single track section limits to approximately one train every forty minutes including turnaround, which doesn't fit in a clockwork timetable. Additionally, more trains crossing an already busy route on the flat would add congestion both at Longniddry and more platform use at an already busy Waverley. Essentially, although a reinstated link would benefit the town, more benefit can be gained from fast busses both to Longniddry and the city centre, with a fifteen minute frequency essentially solving the problem in the medium term.
While trains would open up the town to commuters, and indeed in the long term 2tph to Haddington would have a b/c ratio of something like 2.1 if I remember correctly, the conclusion was that other towns will soak up population growth first, and other infrastructure projects in the medium term will eventually make reopening to Haddington possible
Hope this makes sense, it does seem quite rambling on rereading
Most of your ideas are already included in the 2043 Route Study published by Network Rail. Four-tracking the suburban ECML is a must-have to handle increased commuting demand, even if the primary long-distance high speed route to London switches to HS2/WCML. The idea of extra tracks to reach Waverley from the west isn't properly looked at but it's mentioned it would probably happen through high speed rail investment rather than typical NR work. That makes a lot of sense when you consider that it'd be a lot easier to build these tracks if you didn't have to call at Haymarket and could run the tunnel all the way out to the city bypass.
NR's preference for expanding capacity to the east is to redouble Calton north tunnel - apparently the south tunnel was repaired by patching the inside of the walls and reducing the loading gauge too much for it to take two tracks - and then use the Abbeyhill-Powderhall route for additional tracks. That means they'll be able to provide three separate tracks from the eastern end of the platforms all the way through to the existing Powderhall junction. Presumably four-tracking beyond there past Craigentinny to Portobello Junction is also possible but I don't recall seeing it. The most important proposal is to remodel Portobello Junction so that it's a double-lead which can be taken at 40mph rather than a single lead requiring a slow 15mph crawl. Once these proposed changes are made, I don't think any remaining double-track sections are going to be the primary barrier to extra services running.
I agree that trams will play a big role in transport for the south side of the city. Once the core route from Princes Street to Cameron Toll is done it'll be practical to add on extra routes heading due south as well as to the east via Craigmillar, as is currently planned for Line 3.
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