Exit strategy predictions

[Bletchleyite]

So you think lives are being lost because of the decent weather we are currently experiencing?

I think some will be, yes, as people choose to go out (and potentially be around others) more readily when the weather is good. If it's grim, people voluntarily stay at home.

 

[Enthusiast]

I think some will be, yes, as people choose to go out (and potentially be around others) more readily when the weather is good. If it's grim, people voluntarily stay at home.

And that is why, in the absence of any formal derestriction, the lockdown will quietly fade away as the summer progresses. I'm lucky. I have a sizeable house and garden, plenty of room to sit, model railway layout to run when I please, lots to do to keep things as I like them. Today it was stair rodding for most of the day. Was I stir-crazy? You bet I was. So what must it be like for a couple with three kids, stuck on the tenth floor? Unimaginable.

There is no way on Earth that people will remain locked down for much of the summer. There is also no way on Earth that such restrictions can be enforced. The government doesn't need an exit strategy from this particular aspect of the restrictions. They won't be able to keep the door shut and people will find their own way out.

 

[Ianno87]

And that is why, in the absence of any formal derestriction, the lockdown will quietly fade away as the summer progresses. I'm lucky. I have a sizeable house and garden, plenty of room to sit, model railway layout to run when I please, lots to do to keep things as I like them. Today it was stair rodding for most of the day. Was I stir-crazy? You bet I was. So what must it be like for a couple with three kids, stuck on the tenth floor? Unimaginable.

There is no way on Earth that people will remain locked down for much of the summer. There is also no way on Earth that such restrictions can be enforced. The government doesn't need an exit strategy from this particular aspect of the restrictions. They won't be able to keep the door shut and people will find their own way out.

That is a credible way to end it. No grand announcement "Lockdown is over!!!!" which will just result in days chaos as transport and businesses are swamped.

Just a quiet rolling back of reminding/enforcing the restrictions with some gradual pushing of things like return to work.

 

[delt1c]

The entry strategy should have been quicker,

 

[JonathanH]

The entry strategy should have been quicker,

I expect it will be for the second, third, fourth etc lockdowns.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I expect it will be for the second, third, fourth etc lockdowns.

If they are going to use that approach (let R go above one then lock down again when you've reached N% of critical care bed occupancy) rather than the R=0.999999 "dance" as per that "hammer and the dance" Medium article, then the "red, amber, green" or alert level idea means you've got everything prepared for it.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

That is a credible way to end it. No grand announcement "Lockdown is over!!!!" which will just result in days chaos as transport and businesses are swamped.

Just a quiet rolling back of reminding/enforcing the restrictions with some gradual pushing of things like return to work.

I agree. We as a population seem to have become remarkably obedient to government orders over the last few weeks. Perhaps the coming lifting of the lockdown will remind us that we do have free will and that, as we're not a fascist state, we don't have to do what the government tells us to do?

 

[Huntergreed]

I agree. We as a population seem to have become remarkably obedient to government orders over the last few weeks. Perhaps the coming lifting of the lockdown will remind us that we do have free will and that, as we're not a fascist state, we don't have to do what the government tells us to do?

I would imagine that the threat of police fines combined with high daily death figures and scaremongering from some media sources have helped with the high level of compliance, it’ll be interesting to see when they “loosen” the restrictions whether or not people simply decide that they’ve had enough, as I get the sense this is already happening in my area.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A thirty quid fine doesn't really induce much fear in me TBH. It's altruism that's making me comply. If it was purely personal risk I wouldn't.

Not dissimilarly I don't fare dodge not because of a risk of PF or prosecution but because it's wrong.

 

[Enthusiast]

I expect it will be for the second, third, fourth etc lockdowns.

Once the first lockdown is ended (either officially or by default) imposing a subsequent one effectively will be nigh impossible - especially if the weather is still nice. The population will not tolerate continued episodes of restrictions and the economy will collapse anyway. At some point the country will have to accept that the virus is here to stay until it reaches the end of its lifecycle. Looking at previous pandemics 12 to 24 months seems par for the course. Different arrangements will have to be developed for the remainder of that period because talk of this current situation becoming the "new norm" are - to say the least - a little optimistic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think anyone has used the "new normal" phrase to describe the present situation.

 

[111-111-1]

They are. Take one old T-shirt and cut to suitable size, tie round your mouth and nose. It's that sort of thing that's being proposed (e.g. to catch coughs/sneezes), not medical grade ones to protect you. It's about altruism, like most of this is.

#cut to a suitable size to be folded several layers thick if it is going to be of any use.

 

[Enthusiast]

I don't think anyone has used the "new normal" phrase to describe the present situation.

I think they have - near enough. Here's one (of quite a few):

Social distancing is now 'new normal' - coronavirus warning

SOCIAL distancing is the "new normal" and will continue until a coronavirus vaccine is found, an Australian politician has warned.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Clayton]

I agree. We as a population seem to have become remarkably obedient to government orders over the last few weeks. Perhaps the coming lifting of the lockdown will remind us that we do have free will and that, as we're not a fascist state, we don't have to do what the government tells us to do?

It’s a government we elected to make the laws, nothing fascist about it. You have to do what the elected government tells you even if you don’t agree with it. The opposition aren’t in disagreement with this law.

 

[111-111-1]

I don't think anyone has used the "new normal" phrase to describe the present situation.

Correct, it refers to a time between lockdown being relaxed and whenever full freedom is restored. How many relaxations, less relaxation and "new normals" there are going to be together with a date for full freedom could make a good few sweepstakes.

 

[nlogax]

It’ll be more a ‘prolonged abnormal’-style rollercoaster consisting of some short, sharp shocks of short notice lockdown laced together with easier, freer spells. Pretty sure that’s the next year of our lives.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think they have - near enough. Here's one (of quite a few):

I don't agree. Social distancing doesn't refer to full lockdown. A lot of people seem to be suggesting it does, but it doesn't.

 

[edwin_m]

Once the first lockdown is ended (either officially or by default) imposing a subsequent one effectively will be nigh impossible - especially if the weather is still nice. The population will not tolerate continued episodes of restrictions and the economy will collapse anyway. At some point the country will have to accept that the virus is here to stay until it reaches the end of its lifecycle. Looking at previous pandemics 12 to 24 months seems par for the course. Different arrangements will have to be developed for the remainder of that period because talk of this current situation becoming the "new norm" are - to say the least - a little optimistic.

I think if people see the NHS being overwhelmed by the number of casualties, most will comply. That's probably why they are mostly doing so now, not because of any particular respect for the government. Do you consider a situation where people can't get treatment to be either possible or acceptable?

 

[bramling]

I think if people see the NHS being overwhelmed by the number of casualties, most will comply. That's probably why they are mostly doing so now, not because of any particular respect for the government. Do you consider a situation where people can't get treatment to be either possible or acceptable?

The problem might be that I'm not sure we'll necessarily see the NHS overwhelmed, especially now the extra capacity is in. It seems we'll instead see things like massive infection rates in specific places like care homes, which for many will be "out of sight, out of mind", sadly.

 

[6862]

The problem might be that I'm not sure we'll necessarily see the NHS overwhelmed, especially now the extra capacity is in. It seems we'll instead see things like massive infection rates in specific places like care homes, which for many will be "out of sight, out of mind", sadly.

And the question that raises is how much will lockdown help prevent large numbers of care home deaths? Yes I realise that carers may be less likely to pick up the infection and take it in if there is a lockdown, but now that we have testing for carers even without symptoms, hopefully this too will be reduced?

 

[bramling]

And the question that raises is how much will lockdown help prevent large numbers of care home deaths? Yes I realise that carers may be less likely to pick up the infection and take it in if there is a lockdown, but now that we have testing for carers even without symptoms, hopefully this too will be reduced?

Hopefully. Unfortunately this virus does seem to have a nasty habit of throwing up unexpected curved balls, so in practice who knows.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And the question that raises is how much will lockdown help prevent large numbers of care home deaths? Yes I realise that carers may be less likely to pick up the infection and take it in if there is a lockdown, but now that we have testing for carers even without symptoms, hopefully this too will be reduced?

That's a very good point. If visitors aren't allowed and e.g. conferencing is set up, isn't a care home basically shielded anyway?

The issue, if it's not in already, is staff bringing it in. A decent testing regime for care home staff would be more effective at preventing that than a "porous lockdown" as we have.

 

[C J Snarzell]

The problem with basing easing restrictions on a falling death rate is of courrse, how do you know how many people died of coronavirus as opposed to those who died with coronavirus (ie they tested positive for the virus but it didn't cause their death).

Bearing in mind that, on a typical day, 1500 people die in the UK, would it be fair to assume that once deaths of coronavirus drop to less than 300 a day, then restrictions can start to be lifted?

Whatever happens, I think if it gets to 7 May and Boris announces the lockdown will be extended again then people will increasingly start to ignore it.

Since the lockdown started on the 23rd March, there has been much ambiguity over the accuracy of the death rate. For example, I lost a distant relative to the disease on Easter Monday and his death would probably not have been added to a daily figure until maybe the Friday (April 17th) or even the following week. Tuesday's figures are generally a little higher than Monday's because weekend deaths are not collated straight away. The issue seems to be care home deaths and the way they have been recorded & the fact the figures for care home deaths are kept separately from hospital deaths.

It has been widely criticised that some deaths are being recorded as Covid19 when they are not. Back in March there was the tragic case of the young lady from Beaconsfield who apparently died of Covid19 but then the press & media had to do a major U-turn when it was established she had actually died of something else. There seems to be a trend with people jumping on the Covid19 bandwagon and marking causes of death incorrectly. One of the interesting things that has never been made public is comparisons with NON-Covid19 deaths. For example, thousands of people die each year in the UK from road traffic collisions, thousands die from Cancer, thousands die from...I think I've made my point!!!

My own prediction for 7th May is that Boris Johnson will have to raise the bar and offer some reward to people (such as the social bubble) because like you said people (not just the scum of society) will start to get restless and complacent with the lockdown. For example, the local B&Q in the town I live was brought to a complete standstill at the weekend when they opened their doors. Technically speaking, people should not be shopping for DIY or gardening stuff as we were only advised to shop for essential items. (such as food & medicines).

CJ

 

[chris11256]

That's a very good point. If visitors aren't allowed and e.g. conferencing is set up, isn't a care home basically shielded anyway?

The issue, if it's not in already, is staff bringing it in. A decent testing regime for care home staff would be more effective at preventing that than a "porous lockdown" as we have.

This already the case with the care home my wife works at. An extended lockdown is largely irrelevant, the home has banned visitors since mid march and so far thankfully hasn't had any cases of Coronavirus.

Broadly cases have been either brought in by staff in a small number of cases, but largely it's care home residents catching it in Hospital and then still being discharged back into the care home. This has been NHS policy for a while to free up hospital beds.

 

[Bletchleyite]

My own prediction for 7th May is that Boris Johnson will have to raise the bar and offer some reward to people (such as the social bubble) because like you said people (not just the scum of society) will start to get restless and complacent with the lockdown. For example, the local B&Q in the town I live was brought to a complete standstill at the weekend when they opened their doors. Technically speaking, people should not be shopping for DIY or gardening stuff as we were only advised to shop for essential items. (such as food & medicines).

DIY stores have always been allowed to open because you might need materials and tools to repair your home. B&Q chose to close to protect staff. People have, I agree, been stretching this, but not in a way any different to going to the shop for non-essential food e.g. a bar of chocolate.

 

[C J Snarzell]

DIY stores have always been allowed to open because you might need materials and tools to repair your home. B&Q chose to close to protect staff. People have, I agree, been stretching this, but not in a way any different to going to the shop for non-essential food e.g. a bar of chocolate.

B&Q have in a way created a s**tstorm for themselves. People confined indoors are clearly desperate to pass away the time somehow and B&Q sell more than your traditional DIY store. They do actually have alot of comparisons to IKEA and the latter is more of a furniture store in my opinion. The IKEA in Warrington is rammed anyway on a normal day!!!

In extreme situations, people all think the same - it's a bit like being stuck in a major traffic jam and deciding to take a detour - everybody else thinks the same and all the other roads get clogged themselves. People desperate to do something productive with the house during lockdown will all be thinking 'I'll have a ride to B&Q' - and what I saw at the weekend was roads being brought to a standstill near the local store!!!

CJ

 

[HH]

Correct, it refers to a time between lockdown being relaxed and whenever full freedom is restored. How many relaxations, less relaxation and "new normals" there are going to be together with a date for full freedom could make a good few sweepstakes.

No, it refers to the time post-lockdown, on the understanding that life may have changed in certain ways for the foreseeable future. It can hardly be a "new normal" if it's changing every couple of weeks.

 

[yorksrob]

B&Q have in a way created a s**tstorm for themselves. People confined indoors are clearly desperate to pass away the time somehow and B&Q sell more than your traditional DIY store. They do actually have alot of comparisons to IKEA and the latter is more of a furniture store in my opinion. The IKEA in Warrington is rammed anyway on a normal day!!!

In extreme situations, people all think the same - it's a bit like being stuck in a major traffic jam and deciding to take a detour - everybody else thinks the same and all the other roads get clogged themselves. People desperate to do something productive with the house during lockdown will all be thinking 'I'll have a ride to B&Q' - and what I saw at the weekend was roads being brought to a standstill near the local store!!!

CJ

That suggests an argument for opening more things so that people have a chance to spread out.

 

[trebor79]

It’s a government we elected to make the laws, nothing fascist about it. You have to do what the elected government tells you even if you don’t agree with it. The opposition aren’t in disagreement with this law.

Actually in the UK we don't do what the government tells us we can't do. Anything else is allowed. Everything is legal unless legislation or case law makes it illegal. Very different to some counties (and the situation alluded to in the quote) where everything is illegal unless specifically allowed for.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

It’s a government we elected to make the laws, nothing fascist about it. You have to do what the elected government tells you even if you don’t agree with it. The opposition aren’t in disagreement with this law.

Ah but, as has been mentioned several times, there is a difference between guidelines and laws. It isn't illegal to be less than 2 metres from another person, nor is it illegal to make a non-essential journey or sunbathe in your local park. The vast majority of us are adhering to these guidelines because we feel it will help control the spread of the virus and stop the NHS being overwhelmed. If a further lockdown is imposed on 7 May many people may start to disobey the guidelines as they will feel the lockdown has gone on long enough.