Exit strategy predictions

[Meerkat]

It would fall apart. Couldn’t legally keep any age group at home.

 

[JonathanH]

It would fall apart. Couldn’t legally keep any age group at home.

There are lots of things we would normally see as not part of normal law which can be changed in the current circumstances.

 

[Cardiff123]

So we ban anyone under 40 from visiting their parents and wider family for over 18 months? (or for however long it takes to produce a vaccine, which in a worst case scenario, could be years) What about people in their 20s who are still living at home with their parents? Or young people who are living with someone in their household (young or older) who has an underlying health condition that puts them in the vulnerable or high risk group?
And then you'll get the "I'm fit and healthy, I go on a 5km run every morning" over 70s who refuse to stay at home cos they see themselves as just as fit and healthy as a young person.

"Releasing the youth" as some in the media have put it is fraught with difficulty and in reality completely un-enforceable. Segregating society based on age is a perfect way to build up inter-generational resentment.

 

[bramling]

So we ban anyone under 40 from visiting their parents and wider family for over 18 months? (or for however long it takes to produce a vaccine, which in a worst case scenario, could be years) What about people in their 20s who are still living at home with their parents? Or young people who are living with someone in their household (young or older) who has an underlying health condition that puts them in the vulnerable or high risk group?
And then you'll get the "I'm fit and healthy, I go on a 5km run every morning" over 70s who refuse to stay at home cos they see themselves as just as fit and healthy as a young person.

"Releasing the youth" as some in the media have put it is fraught with difficulty and in reality completely un-enforceable. Segregating society based on age is a perfect way to build up inter-generational resentment.

I think a lot will depend on how seriously people can be trusted to take social distancing. The more this is respected the more our collective risk is reduced to the lowest reasonably possible level.

Unfortunately, there are two problems. Firstly will people play ball? I suspect the lockdown will have put fear into people and peer pressure will help too, but is this enough? How long before we see scenes like on that weekend? Secondly, what happens in situations where social distancing is difficult to achieve, like on the Underground for example?

 

[Cardiff123]

I think a lot will depend on how seriously people can be trusted to take social distancing. The more this is respected the more our collective risk is reduced to the lowest reasonably possible level.

Unfortunately, there are two problems. Firstly will people play ball? I suspect the lockdown will have put fear into people and peer pressure will help too, but is this enough? How long before we see scenes like on that weekend? Secondly, what happens in situations where social distancing is difficult to achieve, like on the Underground for example?

Tony Blair, through his Global Institute for Change, published a report today looking a various exit strategies from the lockdown.
The Guardian provides a brief summary, with a link to the full report, here
Scroll down to the traffic light tables, which are interesting. Age segmentation has a red circle in the box "Will it be seen as fair?"
Making face masks compulsory on public transport is also suggested.

Downing Street won’t discuss what its plan for easing the lockdown might look like, but the former prime minister Tony Blair is keen to explore the mechanics of how this might be achieved and his thinktank has published a report (pdf) on this topic which is well worth reading if you are at all curious about what the future might look like.

Blair does not have a “magic bullet” solution (until a vaccine arrives, no one does), but he has a useful summary of the options.

The report argues that what is needed is a twin strategy of containment and shielding.

This chart uses a traffic-light analysis to assess the merits of eight policy options....

 

[ChrisC]

Tony Blair, through his Global Institute for Change, published a report today looking a various exit strategies from the lockdown.
The Guardian provides a brief summary, with a link to the full report, here
Scroll down to the traffic light tables, which are interesting. Age segmentation has a red circle in the box "Will it be seen as fair?"
Making face masks compulsory on public transport is also suggested.

I thought the column headed “Will it be seen as fair?” is an an interesting one. Age segregation does have a red circle in that column. I think with the over 70’s, and in some respects all ages, there are other factors to consider regarding social distancing that if taken into consideration would not be seen as fair by some.
There have been ideas about restrictions varying in different parts of the country. What about differences between highly populated cities compared with sparsely populated rural areas.

Even the location, type of home and residential environment, could be considered. My mother who is her 80’s lives in a rural location, has a reasonable sized garden at the back of her house, and open countryside beyond that. If she lived in a flat or even a terraced house with no garden, I would be horrified at the idea of her receiving any visitors for the next few months. However, I see fewer problems if she received a visitor into her garden and they kept a good few metres apart at opposite sides of the lawn. As long as anything the visitor has touched, including the gate, is disinfected afterwards, perhaps there isn’t very much risk. Would allowing this type of meeting for an elderly person be unfair because it is seen as discrimination against people who don’t have large gardens. I’m not being flippant, this is a matter that I feel needs addressing. Lots of things are not going to be fair in the coming months or even years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It might well be a good time to buy an elderly relative an iPad with a SIM card in it. If they can FaceTime you every day that'll make all the difference.

iPads aren't cheap, but a used one would do, and they are uniquely user friendly to non-IT people.

 

[Qwerty133]

Tony Blair, through his Global Institute for Change, published a report today looking a various exit strategies from the lockdown.
The Guardian provides a brief summary, with a link to the full report, here
Scroll down to the traffic light tables, which are interesting. Age segmentation has a red circle in the box "Will it be seen as fair?"
Making face masks compulsory on public transport is also suggested.

Making face masks compulsory is unquestionably unfair on those who cannot wear them for medical reasons (while it is likely that those that can't wear them for physical reasons would also be classified as vulnerable there are also going to be considerable numbers who cannot wear them for mental or sensory reasons who are not).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Making face masks compulsory is unquestionably unfair on those who cannot wear them for medical reasons (while it is likely that those that can't wear them for physical reasons would also be classified as vulnerable there are also going to be considerable numbers who cannot wear them for mental or sensory reasons who are not).

Many things are unfair about the present situation, most notably people having to isolate for a considerable length of time just because they're unlucky enough to be old or infirm or have certain pre-existing conditions. Sadly, fairness has to take a back seat to effectiveness.

 

[Cardiff123]

Deleted

 

[bramling]

Many things are unfair about the present situation, most notably people having to isolate for a considerable length of time just because they're unlucky enough to be old or infirm or have certain pre-existing conditions. Sadly, fairness has to take a back seat to effectiveness.

Whilst I tend to agree with that in principle, human nature is such that people get disproportionately aggrieved when they perceive they are being unfairly treated relative to others. Anger and/or resentment are things to avoid when trying to design something effective.

 

[Mojo]

The papers yesterday were reporting that garden centres could be one of the first categories of shops to be allowed to reopen when the lockdown is next reviewed. I suppose there are a number of strands behind this. The ornamental horticulture industry is something that is by and large quite significantly home grown (if you'll pardon the pun) as a significant amount of their produce is made here in the UK. Most of their produce is time limited in that unlike say a clothes shop or a car dealership, if the retailers were not to reopen for several months the produce they have in stock will not really be worth anything in retail, and even many of the perennials will require significant expenditure to make them ready to sell again next year. Their trade body reports that the months up to June make up around 40% of their trade, with smaller retailers often over half. It's also an industry that doesn't really have any significant form of online presence or delivery network. Many of my local garden centres have not been trading at all but have set up recently some kind of primitive online ordering and delivery service; my favourite local garden centre which is state owned and operated (it is owned and run by our council) has in the past week posted something on Facebook with a list of plants, but you have to Email what you want to them, and they call you back to take your card details over the telephone.

In a fashion I suppose it gives people something to do at home once they've bought their produce, so they are less likely to and do something that contravenes with social distancing, and also an industry that could support making people feel better about themselves and their neighbourhood mentally.

Following on from that, I would hope that hair salons re-open (if at least for key workers only, who are still expected to turn up for work smart and presentable), and medical services that are presently closed (dentists and opticians).

 

[Qwerty133]

Many things are unfair about the present situation, most notably people having to isolate for a considerable length of time just because they're unlucky enough to be old or infirm or have certain pre-existing conditions. Sadly, fairness has to take a back seat to effectiveness.

If we are going to start imposing blanket restrictions that have negative implications for large parts of society on the basis of 'effectiveness' it is essential that we are referring to non-marginal evidence based effectiveness and not 'read it in the Grauniad' effectiveness, and quite frankly the use of basic face masks amongst the asymptomatic almost certainly falls in the latter category at this stage.

 

[Qwerty133]

The papers yesterday were reporting that garden centres could be one of the first categories of shops to be allowed to reopen when the lockdown is next reviewed. I suppose there are a number of strands behind this. The ornamental horticulture industry is something that is by and large quite significantly home grown (if you'll pardon the pun) as a significant amount of their produce is made here in the UK. Most of their produce is time limited in that unlike say a clothes shop or a car dealership, if the retailers were not to reopen for several months the produce they have in stock will not really be worth anything in retail, and even many of the perennials will require significant expenditure to make them ready to sell again next year. Their trade body reports that the months up to June make up around 40% of their trade, with smaller retailers often over half. It's also an industry that doesn't really have any significant form of online presence or delivery network. Many of my local garden centres have not been trading at all but have set up recently some kind of primitive online ordering and delivery service; my favourite local garden centre which is state owned and operated (it is owned and run by our council) has in the past week posted something on Facebook with a list of plants, but you have to Email what you want to them, and they call you back to take your card details over the telephone.

In a fashion I suppose it gives people something to do at home once they've bought their produce, so they are less likely to and do something that contravenes with social distancing, and also an industry that could support making people feel better about themselves and their neighbourhood mentally.

Following on from that, I would hope that hair salons re-open (if at least for key workers only, who are still expected to turn up for work smart and presentable), and medical services that are presently closed (dentists and opticians).

I am quite strongly against garden centres being a relatively early business to reopen. Garden centre clientele is, on average, considerably older (and therefore at higher risk) than the population and almost certainly tilted towards the middle and upper classes as they have access to much more outside space. To open such businesses while everywhere else remains closed is likely to see a proportion of society feel that such people are being prioritised and may well encourage many to ignore government advice.
I also think it is totally unacceptable for hairdressers and barbers to be expected to reopen at an early stage due to the large amounts of unavoidable and prolonged close contact, in many cases with people who they do not know to any meaningful level. Even if they are able to reopen it is unlikely that barbers (and some hairdressers) could work at anything like full capacity meaning that even if they were open many people wouldn't be able to access their services and employers will have to accept some degree of scruffiness for the foreseeable future and would be well placed in adding hats to the uniform policy. The distinction of key workers would also be unacceptable in such cases as there is no more need for a shelf stacker or train driver to have a fresh trim as there is for anyone regularly videoconferencing with clients or otherwise being regularly seen by others.

 

[bramling]

I am quite strongly against garden centres being a relatively early business to reopen. Garden centre clientele is, on average, considerably older (and therefore at higher risk) than the population and almost certainly tilted towards the middle and upper classes as they have access to much more outside space. To open such businesses while everywhere else remains closed is likely to see a proportion of society feel that such people are being prioritised and may well encourage many to ignore government advice.

Whilst I sort of see the point about setting an example to others, I can see a logic behind garden centres being one of the earlier things to re-open. For a start it gets some people back to work in what I’d imagine is a lower-risk environment, and likewise its one less sector relying on bail-outs. Whilst you may dislike the idea that clientele may be middle or upper class as you put it, this gets a bit of money flowing around which is desperately needed. In the medium term that’s far more important than class considerations.

A spin-off is that most people will arrive at garden centres by car, especially those in remote locations, so there’s no ramifications for public transport use.

Like it or not it’s what might be referred to as a quick win. As an aside there must be stocks and stocks of plants going to waste at the moment, and those sorts of costs won’t be covered by any furlough scheme.

 

[Mojo]

I am quite strongly against garden centres being a relatively early business to reopen. Garden centre clientele is, on average, considerably older (and therefore at higher risk) than the population and almost certainly tilted towards the middle and upper classes as they have access to much more outside space. To open such businesses while everywhere else remains closed is likely to see a proportion of society feel that such people are being prioritised and may well encourage many to ignore government advice.

Latest estimates are that 87% of households have private outside space. Two thirds of people in the UK visited a garden centre last year. Not exactly a minority. It would be truly tragic to let this industry rot, something it would struggle to recover from.

Also, talk about upper classes strongly misunderstands the type of people who visit garden centres; for it is not the upper classes that are affected as they do not have gardens made from bedding plants!

 

[Qwerty133]

Latest estimates are that 87% of households have private outside space. Two thirds of people in the UK visited a garden centre last year. Not exactly a minority. It would be truly tragic to let this industry rot, something it would struggle to recover from.

Also, talk about upper classes strongly misunderstands the type of people who visit garden centres; for it is not the upper classes that are affected as they do not have gardens made from bedding plants!

The problem with garden centres is that the term doesn't only refer to those businesses which genuinely exist on the sale of bedding plants (and related items) but also includes places better describer as mini department stores which people make day trips out of browsing through and happen to sell a relatively small range of overpriced plants alongside the clothing, furniture and equally overpriced coffee. The former type is quite possibly the kind of business that could be allowed to reopened early on in the relaxation of restrictions and may well be visited by all groups of society but that latter type is almost certainly much higher risk (and was the type of place I was thinking of when saying the clientele are old and rich) and should not be reopened in the earlier stages unless other clothing (for example) stores are reopened.

 

[bramling]

The problem with garden centres is that the term doesn't only refer to those businesses which genuinely exist on the sale of bedding plants (and related items) but also includes places better describer as mini department stores which people make day trips out of browsing through and happen to sell a relatively small range of overpriced plants alongside the clothing, furniture and equally overpriced coffee. The former type is quite possibly the kind of business that could be allowed to reopened early on in the relaxation of restrictions and may well be visited by all groups of society but that latter type is almost certainly much higher risk (and was the type of place I was thinking of when saying the clientele are old and rich) and should not be reopened in the earlier stages unless other clothing (for example) stores are reopened.

Fair points. Many garden centres are indeed social clubs where the main attraction is the cafe. However as this aspect *tends* to be frequented by OAPs and perhaps in some cases school-mums I don’t think it’s much of an issue at the moment.

 

[Mojo]

Fair points. Many garden centres are indeed social clubs where the main attraction is the cafe. However as this aspect *tends* to be frequented by OAPs and perhaps in some cases school-mums I don’t think it’s much of an issue at the moment.

The articles did point out, that "[r]estaurants, cafes and areas selling non-plant products in the complexes would remain closed."

 

[Jozhua]

Mass mask wearing is of clear and paramount importance
Taiwan doesn't even have a lockdown or social distancing policy but they have managed to stay in control of covid-19
Back in january the government should have churned out masks and made it a massive media incentive
Reminder that wuhan was completely shut-down after 24 deaths. I actually totally believe chinese statistics and just think east asians are far more adept at dealing with crisis.

Obviously particle filters prevent the spread of disease
There is not only worldly evidence that supports this simple fact , but also inherent conceptual evidence . You should take what WHO say by a pinch of salt, and not gospel truth

The WHO doesn't deny they work, they do, however with healthcare and essential services suffering majorly with a lack of PPE, forcing many to wear masks seems ridiculous.

They have to be frequently disposed off and if not done correctly, this could potentially be worse. Mandatory face masks for the general public is nothing but empty security theater.

 

[takno]

80% of Coronavirus deaths in the UK are in the over 60s.

The way out of this is age-related. The under 40s represent 51% of the population. The first step should be to allow them to get back to work and socialise if they are living with anyone over 40.

Before someone says this is ageist - in the long term this will theoretically protect the older population in the longer term if some immunity is imparted across the younger generations. Their response to Coronavirus is extremely mild and very few will have to be hospitalised although there will be some exceptional deaths admittedly.

Imperial College have been leaning towards this strategy as it is completely logical. But Boris Johnson is somewhat against it as he doesn't want a 'two tier' system. However it does not make any sense to penalise younger, healthier people for no rational reason and may actually provide a longer-term route out this in terms of greater immunity within the population which would benefit the older generation who are more at risk.

There seems to be a 20 year long logic gap in this. The 40-60 age group isn't at significant risk according to your stats, and makes up well over a third of the working population. Why on earth would you try to keep them at home? If you apply it to people who live with the over 40s as well then you probably hit about 70-80% of the working population, and maybe 70% of children as well. That isn't an exit in any meaningful terms, let alone a strategy.

While I don't necessarily disagree with the idea of a stay-at-home policy for the over 70s there are issues, and you'd probably have to make it heavily-encouraged rather than mandatory. In terms of people who live with older people, the key issues are that it's difficult to police, and could have drastic economic outcomes on often already-disadvantaged groups.

In other cases they simply won't comply. The stats suggest maybe a 90-odd percent survival rate in your 70s. If you reckon you've got maybe 10 years left, maybe only 5 in good health, and somebody suggests you spend a year indoors not seeing your friends and family, would you do it?

 

[Carlisle]

It’s all guesswork really!
Retail and hospitality might never recover

I think it’s bit early to make such drastic predictions as if it turns out relatively soon most of us are willing once again to embrace packed trains, busses & stations, then arguing pubs & churches etc are still unsafe will appear slightly daft

 

[yorksrob]

Quite. At some stage, people will get back to socialising and when that happens, one busy place will be percieved much the same as another.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think it’s bit early to make such drastic predictions if it turns out that relatively soon we’re willing once again to embrace packed trains, busses & stations, then arguing pubs & churches etc are still unsafe will appear pointless

Fortunately we do have a comparator regarding crowded transport - for the first week or so of the lockdown the Tube etc were still massively busy then this dropped right off. So if in the next week or two we see a big drop-off of cases and deaths, that's likely that taking effect.

 

[yorkie]

The problem with garden centres is that the term doesn't only refer to those businesses which genuinely exist on the sale of bedding plants (and related items) but also includes places better describer as mini department stores which people make day trips out of browsing through ...

Then just put appropriate restrictions in.

I have to say I find your posts in this thread to be among the least logical argument I've ever read (sorry!); I am not a frequent visitor to garden centres but most seem to be very spacious, so if you just run them like supermarkets, with restrictions on entry, there should be no issue.

It does need to be done soon; a huge amount of damage is going to be done long-term if it isn't done soon, and your arguments against don't really hold any water.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also gardening is a very popular pursuit in the UK which is good for physical and mental health. Personally I hate it, I'd rather go running, but it is very popular with some, so much so that the approach of putting someone on suspension with full pay (e.g. due to redundancy or alleged misconduct) is known as "gardening leave". If the remaining lockdown was to turn into a load of gardening projects for those who enjoy it, that is a good way of reducing people getting "stir crazy" at quite low risk.

DIY is not dissimilar though has greater safety risks. If someone was wanting to refit their bathroom/kitchen, 3 weeks off work would be an ideal time for this and they'd probably not be annoyed about it at all.

 

[yorksrob]

Fortunately we do have a comparator regarding crowded transport - for the first week or so of the lockdown the Tube etc were still massively busy then this dropped right off. So if in the next week or two we see a big drop-off of cases and deaths, that's likely that taking effect.

We should be wary of treating all public transport the same as well. Even before COVID19 the tube was known as a bit of a petri dish, with users suffering from higher levels of colds.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We should be wary of treating all public transport the same as well. Even before COVID19 the tube was known as a bit of a petri dish, with users suffering from higher levels of colds.

Very true. Rural bus services, and even many city ones, have enough seats for everyone and so people aren't packed in in the same way. I don't for instance recall ever having to stand on a bus in MK, ridership is low enough that there are generally seats for all.

 

[yorksrob]

Very true. Rural bus services, and even many city ones, have enough seats for everyone and so people aren't packed in in the same way. I don't for instance recall ever having to stand on a bus in MK, ridership is low enough that there are generally seats for all.

Also commutes in the regional centres tend to be shorter, which will probably have some impact.

 

[thejuggler]

Carl Henegan on yesterday's Newsnight said that by Friday this week Government should have enough data and solid scientific evidence to set out its strategy for ending lockdown.

He gave the impression that this current three week lock down should be the last as the strategy can be put in place in 1-2 weeks. Iplayer about 7 minutes into the programme.

As Government are 'following the science' we will see if they agree.