Eurostar merged in 2023 with Thalys, and it is the ex-Thalys trains that operate only in Continental Europe that are most in need of replacement. It has 9 200m long
PBA trains, and 17 200m long
PBKA trains in that fleet, so 26 trains in total. The order of 30 200m long Avelia Horizon is just basically replacing the ex-Thalys fleet, with an
extra route Amsterdam-Geneva also to be worked on.
In other words, what Eurostar is ordering here
might never be used in the Channel Tunnel.
For Channel Tunnel routes Eurostar’s 17 400m long
Siemens e320 trains are only a decade old, so will continue to run for many years yet. But Eurostar also has 8 remaining 400m long
e300 TMST trains that are reaching the end of their life, and given the Avelia Horizon trains are 200m long you would need 16 trains to replace those e300s, plus ideally a few more for suggested
route expansions from London to Frankfurt and Geneva. So the 20 extra trains option in the order with Alstom covers that.
The problem is that currently we do not know how Avelia Horizon can be made to be compatible with the Channel Tunnel’s evacuation rules (Note that by contrast in its submission to ORR about the single deck Avelia Stream (
PDF, page 6), Virgin states “The trains will be configured to meet Channel Tunnel safety and fire requirements”).