Eurostar not serving Kent.

[miklcct]

Letter from E* CEO

https://twitter.com/EurostarJustinp/status/1574711574337495041

I have read all these but, sorry, it's a load of bull to me. Eurostar has become another CrossCountry.

I'll emit the CO2 instead going anywhere further than Paris.

 

[zwk500]

I have read all these but, sorry, it's a load of bull to me. Eurostar has become another CrossCountry.

I'll emit the CO2 instead going anywhere further than Paris.

Can you provide evidence to demonstrate which points is he lying on?

 

[miklcct]

Can you provide evidence to demonstrate which points is he lying on?

"The combination of the two main short-term factors above means that, despite the return to travel, Eurostar cannot pursue a strategy of volume and growth. We are having to focus services on those core routes which make the maximum contribution per train and to charge higher prices to our customers."

Surely this is exactly what CrossCountry is doing, by dropping calls of minor stations and charging people rip-off headline fares to dissuade people from using its services.

 

[johncrossley]

I have to admit, I have pretty much given up on Eurostar now. It isn't worth the hassle, and for me there is nearly always a cheaper, easier and quicker flying alternative.

 

[zwk500]

"The combination of the two main short-term factors above means that, despite the return to travel, Eurostar cannot pursue a strategy of volume and growth. We are having to focus services on those core routes which make the maximum contribution per train and to charge higher prices to our customers."

Surely this is exactly what CrossCountry is doing, by dropping calls of minor stations and charging people rip-off headline fares to dissuade people from using its services.

In what way is his point that in the current economic climate euostar must focus on maximising revenue from what it has wrong, misleading or in any other way bull****?
What XC are doing is neither here nor there as their franchise model has very different setup for revenue and service obligations.

 

[XAM2175]

Letter from E* CEO

https://twitter.com/EurostarJustinp/status/1574711574337495041

(Twitter post contains images of letter from eurostar CEO explaining reasons for cuts to services. Because they are images I can't easily quote the text, sorry)

Text as follows:

From: Jacques Damas, CEO, Eurostar

To: Huw Merriman
Chair of the Transport Select Committee

26 September 2022

Dear Mr Merriman,

Thank you for your letter of 7 September in which you share, on behalf of the Transport Select Committee, your concern about the impact of the maintained closure of Ebbsfleet and Ashford international stations. I too value the constructive relationship between Eurostar and the Committee.

I fully appreciate the disappointment felt by many at the continued closure of the Kent stations and, indeed, the recent announcements regarding Disneyland Paris - a popular destination for many of our British customers, including those previously from Ashford. I also appreciate the economic impact of such a decision on the South-East and the loss of choice for individual travellers. I can understand that people contrast these decisions with the recovery in travel this year and question why we have not moved to re-open the stations.

In the circumstances, I felt it right to offer a detailed explanation. There are two main factors in the short-term:

• First, the Committee is aware of the unique impacts on the business caused by the pandemic and the associated travel restrictions. We had our revenues cut by 95% for 15 months in 2020-21 and were hit hard by the Omicron wave in December 2021 and early 2022, the restrictions attached to which had a further impact of at least £50m. Contrary to the £7bn in state aid given to our airline competitors - many of whom also have overseas and state-backed shareholdings - Eurostar did not receive any state-backed loans. Our shareholders put a further £250m into the business (almost double the total historic amount ever taken out in dividends); but Eurostar needed to find an additional £500m in commercial debt in order to survive. This commercial debt is at considerably higher cost than the loan facility offered to the airlines and Eurostar must continue to meet the demanding financial ratios underpinning these loans.
  
  
• Second, the Committee will be aware that, following the UK's departure from the European Union, additional border checks apply to UK citizens seeking to enter Schengen, as they do to all Third Country nationals. Since c.40% of our customers are UK nationals, this has resulted in a significant increase in the processing times at stations. The stamping of British passports by continental police adds at least 15 seconds to individual passengers' border crossing times. Automated systems such as e-gates are less effective. Eurostar has been taking action and working with the authorities. We have upgraded the French passport gates in St Pancras and more UK gates are now going into Paris. We are installing an extra French control booth in London (where space is extremely constricted). However, as things stand, peak capacity through the stations is c.30% lower than pre-Brexit. Even with all booths manned, St. Pancras can currently process a maximum 1500 passengers per hour vs. 2200 in 2019. It is only the fact that Eurostar has capacity-limited trains and significantly reduced its timetable from 2019 levels, that we are not seeing daily queues in the centre of London similar to those experienced in the Channel ports.
  This situation has obvious commercial consequences and is not sustainable in the mid-to-long term. But the immediate consequence is that we are currently not able to respond to the high demand on our core routes linking capital cities. Re-opening the intermediate stations (where demand and yields are much lower) would make things even worse as it would take away from London vital border police resources. The reality of traffic numbers is such that a police officer controls 5 to 10 times more passengers in our large terminals than in intermediate stations.

For completeness, there has also been another internal and temporary challenge to keep in mind. We have been hampered by the shortage on maintenance engineers in our main Temple Mills depot in Stratford. As a consequence, some of our train sets are not ready in time and this occasions delays on departure with day-long knock-on effects. Eurostar did not make any operational staff redundant during the pandemic but we were struggling to replace those who left and this has resulted in a numbers and skills gap. To address this, we have been recruiting more than 40 maintenance engineers since the spring. This factor, which could have forced us to limit our timetable in normal circumstances, has not because border constraints are higher. I am confident that we will overcome it in the coming months as we do control how to address it.

The combination of the two main short-term factors above means that, despite the return to travel, Eurostar cannot currently pursue a strategy of volume and growth. We are having to focus services on those core routes which make the maximum contribution per train and to charge higher prices to our customers. The whole focus of this effort is to manage and reduce the debts we had to incur; there is no prospect of any dividends to shareholders until this is done.

The reason we have declined to offer any near-term prospect for review of this decision is that the pressures I refer to are not abating. The expectations of recovery within the business held by the banks continue to step-up in 2023. The pandemic has certainly abated, but the risk remains. The uncertainty regarding the EU's 'Entry Exit System' (EES) - much discussed with the Committee - hangs over us.

Finally, there is a third main factor in the mid- to long-term. We cannot yet reasonably predict how both business and leisure markets will respond to the various structural changes such as the energy crisis and new work-from-home habits. There is considerable uncertainty about the ability of customers to pay in the context of the current and forecast pressures on the cost of living. At the same time the business itself faces nearly £100m in increased inflationary pressures. Once again, this is most acute on the UK side where the HS1 infrastructure - which is already three to four times more expensive per km than its French equivalent - is now rising in price almost three times as fast.

Recently, Eurostar and Southeastern Trains came together with HS1 to jointly propose a measure to alleviate pressure on charges in the near-term using funds already in the system. The Government did not object but the process considerations tabled by the Regulator have meant that this important initiative has run into the sand. As a result, Eurostar and Southeastern are able to commit to fewer trains next year and into 2025 than they otherwise would have done. This is of particular concern because we are now starting the Periodic Review that will fix charges for the five years from 2025. Eurostar believes that unless a different position is taken in that review on the balance between near-term and long-term risks, and unless UK charges are reduced, then, at best, the business will find itself indefinitely locked into the present position of having to focus on driving high-yield from a limited customer and service base.

In such an uncertain context, I have the duty, as CEO, to make the right decision and secure my company's future. I am therefore cautious not to overcommit.​

I hope that these elements provide sufficient background to the difficult decisions we have taken and why there is no immediate prospect of reversing these. Although I will leave my role as Eurostar CEO by the end of the month, I know that my successor, Gwendoline Cazenave, together with my colleagues, will be pleased to engage with you and the Committee if you wish to discuss some of the issues raised in the letter in greater detail. In particular, we would welcome any support the Committee could give to protect international travel in the context of the governmental and regulatory risks I highlight.

Yours sincerely,
Jacques Damas

 

[youngpete]

Perhaps of they moved some of the passport processing to Ebbsfleet or Ashford by stopping trains there, they could process more passengers.

 

[zwk500]

Perhaps of they moved some of the passport processing to Ebbsfleet or Ashford by stopping trains there, they could process more passengers.

Only if the excess passengers moved to the intermediate stations as well. The evidence suggests some will, but not enough to make a difference at St Pancras. There is also the issue of staffing the passport and security points at Ebbsfleet and Ashford with both UK and French staff.
Out of Interest, does anybody have the Eurostar numbers for Ebbsfleet and Ashford pre-covid, and a comparison of overall E* Pre/Post-Covid?

 

[BRX]

I wonder what would be the economics of running services starting/finishing at Ebbsfleet or Ashford. Maybe just at peak demand times. Aim to fill a whole train or two there, so you concentrate your staffing resources on processing a large number of passengers within a limited time period rather than a scattering of passengers across the whole day which is presumably what previously happened and explains the comment in the letter that a border official at St Pancras processes 5-10 times as many passengers as one at the intermediate stations does.

You could probably tempt quite a few people, for whom St Pancras is the most convenient station, to consider using Ebbsfleet or Ashford instead, if the fare difference was big enough.

Even do a deal with SE high speed so that you could buy a ticket that used their trains from St Pancras?

For me, I would happily accept say an extra hour's travel time in return for a fare £50 or so lower, at those times where Eurostar now wants £150+ for a single journey.

If it stacked up they'd already be doing it though, I guess.

 

[RT4038]

I wonder what would be the economics of running services starting/finishing at Ebbsfleet or Ashford. Maybe just at peak demand times. Aim to fill a whole train or two there, so you concentrate your staffing resources on processing a large number of passengers within a limited time period rather than a scattering of passengers across the whole day which is presumably what previously happened and explains the comment in the letter that a border official at St Pancras processes 5-10 times as many passengers as one at the intermediate stations does.

A couple of Border officials (from each country) + security, processing one full train at a Kent station in a shift is hardly an efficient use of resources.

For me, I would happily accept say an extra hour's travel time in return for a fare £50 or so lower, at those times where Eurostar now wants £150+ for a single journey.

So how does a train starting at Ebbsfleet or Ashford make the costs so dramatically cheaper to reduce fares by £50? The train is still going to be traversing HS1, going through the tunnel and the HS line in France; quite apart from the possibility of cannibalising existing higher fare revenue. Just does not stack up. The E* operation just gives some indication what fares and services would be like on the rest of the UK inter-city network if subsidy was reduced/eliminated.

 

[zwk500]

I wonder what would be the economics of running services starting/finishing at Ebbsfleet or Ashford.

Terrible, I suspect. Operationally you'd be dead running between St Pancras and Ebbsfleet and then you need to find 900 people who want to travel to Paris more comfortably than a coach, more conveniently than a plane but are on a budget, and are prepared to go to Ebbsfleet or Ashford rather than London.
That's before the practicalities of staffing either or both stations come up.

 

[BRX]

My wonderings are based on the fact that e* previously ran services from those stations, and generally priced fares lower than they are at the moment, and managed to turn a profit. That plus the fact they say there is substantial latent demand constrained primarily by processing space at St Pancras.

What I don't know is how much higher e* fares are now, compared with say 2019. I don't know if that information exists. Having a quick look at them today and based on what I previously might have expected, they feel like they may be in the region of £50 more per single journey at peak times.

My other observation is that the idea of running from a less convenient location with more capacity, in return for lower fares, is common in the airline world and haven't some continental HS rail operators been looking at trying the same.

In any case, I'm not arguing it would work, just curious how the numbers would end up.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Sep 2022 ==

you need to find 900 people who want to travel to Paris more comfortably than a coach, more conveniently than a plane but are on a budget, and are prepared to go to Ebbsfleet or Ashford rather than London.

I think there are quite a lot of people who would fall in that category. Just now, many of them are probably reluctantly opting for easyJet. If you're prepared to go to Luton or Stansted (plus an equivalent at the Paris end) why not Ebbsfleet and get straight to the GdN.

 

[zwk500]

My wonderings are based on the fact that e* previously ran services from those stations, and generally priced fares lower than they are at the moment, and managed to turn a profit. That plus the fact they say there is substantial latent demand constrained primarily by processing space at St Pancras.

What I don't know is how much higher e* fares are now, compared with say 2019. I don't know if that information exists. Having a quick look at them today and based on what I previously might have expected, they feel like they may be in the region of £50 more per single journey at peak times.

My other observation is that the idea of running from a less convenient location with more capacity, in return for lower fares, is common in the airline world and haven't some continental HS rail operators been looking at trying the same.

In any case, I'm not arguing it would work, just curious how the numbers would end up.

I think it would look different if the international facilities at Ebbsfleet were in use by another operator and E* could share the costs. However, because they are currently mothballed and no other operator has a license to operate international services on HS1, they'd have to pay for all the costs one way or another. There's also the issue that Eurostar needs two countries' sets of border controls at each station - the logistics of staffing Ebbsfleet with french PAF officers are not light problems. An airport will generally only be securing one border, the 'home' one.
There are 3 ways the Kent stations reopen to my mind (in order of likelihood, probably/unlikely but maybe/never in a million years): 1. A general economic recovery makes the margins acceptable for E* to reopen the intermediate stations. 2. there is a MASSIVE swing in demand specifically for the intermediate stations that justifies reopening one/the other/both. 3. The UK government mutually agrees to relax border controls (either by joining Schengen area or by signing a bilateral UK-EU agreement).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Sep 2022 ==

I think there are quite a lot of people who would fall in that category. Just now, many of them are probably reluctantly opting for easyJet. If you're prepared to go to Luton or Stansted (plus an equivalent at the Paris end) why not Ebbsfleet and get straight to the GdN.

I don't think there are 900 people who would take the train only if it were £50 cheaper, but are prepared to travel to Ebbsfleet for it. If you live north of London (as most of the country does) then Luton and Stansted are easier to get to than Ebbsfleet (no Dartford Crossing), and CDG or Orly aren't overly difficult to get to Paris proper from. Gare du Nord is in a similar position to King's Cross/St Pancras on being on the edge of the central area, it's a bit of a trek to get to the places in Paris you actually want to go.

Unless you live in central London and are staying in central Paris, the connecting trains at either end are probably 50/50 between E* and Flying.

 

[mrmartin]

Somewhat related, Lisbon airport is allowing non-EU citizens to already use the egates. You then get your passport quickly stamped by a guy who is doing a stamp every 5-10 seconds.

Before they did this post Brexit the non-EU queues were absolutely hideous, well over 3 hours most of the time. Now it takes 5-10 minutes, so it is massively more efficient.

I definitely agree at another open access operator having a go from eg Stratford. As people have pointed out the trains could just wait in the (currently completely unused) platforms at Stratford intl, until the return journey?

I also cannot understand the argument that demand has shifted - looking this Friday there is only one train the entire day to Paris - and only Business Premier seats left?!

 

[zwk500]

I definitely agree at another open access operator having a go from eg Stratford. As people have pointed out the trains could just wait in the (currently completely unused) platforms at Stratford intl, until the return journey?

At Stratford, neither international platform has a connection to the other line in the Paris direction, so you would either need to work wrong road until the next crossover, or shunt at the London end. It was also never fitted out with the security and birder equipment. At Ebbsfleet I'm not sure if there is 1 platform that could terminate trains, but you've still got the crossing movement either way.
Eurostar isn't interested in a low cost offering, so you'd need to find somebody willing to invest in a brand new operation.

 

[BRX]

I think it would look different if the international facilities at Ebbsfleet were in use by another operator and E* could share the costs. However, because they are currently mothballed and no other operator has a license to operate international services on HS1, they'd have to pay for all the costs one way or another. There's also the issue that Eurostar needs two countries' sets of border controls at each station - the logistics of staffing Ebbsfleet with french PAF officers are not light problems. An airport will generally only be securing one border, the 'home' one.
There are 3 ways the Kent stations reopen to my mind (in order of likelihood, probably/unlikely but maybe/never in a million years): 1. A general economic recovery makes the margins acceptable for E* to reopen the intermediate stations. 2. there is a MASSIVE swing in demand specifically for the intermediate stations that justifies reopening one/the other/both. 3. The UK government mutually agrees to relax border controls (either by joining Schengen area or by signing a bilateral UK-EU agreement).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Sep 2022 ==


I don't think there are 900 people who would take the train only if it were £50 cheaper, but are prepared to travel to Ebbsfleet for it. If you live north of London (as most of the country does) then Luton and Stansted are easier to get to than Ebbsfleet (no Dartford Crossing), and CDG or Orly aren't overly difficult to get to Paris proper from. Gare du Nord is in a similar position to King's Cross/St Pancras on being on the edge of the central area, it's a bit of a trek to get to the places in Paris you actually want to go.

Unless you live in central London and are staying in central Paris, the connecting trains at either end are probably 50/50 between E* and Flying.

Yeah, but my impression is that Eurostar's main market is and always has been Londoners.

 

[Trainbike46]

Yeah, but my impression is that Eurostar's main market is and always has been Londoners.

They're clearly more popular with people who live in or near london, but it has never been exclusively londoners, anywhere that is within commuting distance of london is definitely a key part of the market too, and then there is the smaller, but not exactly insignificant number of people who travel from further, such as Birmingham. I always use eurostar when travelling to the netherlands, and I used to live in Edinburgh and I currently live in Belfast. If you live in say, York, St Pancras might be easier to get to than many airports. Any other eurostar station would be much harder though

 

[Bald Rick]

For me, I would happily accept say an extra hour's travel time in return for a fare £50 or so lower, at those times where Eurostar now wants £150+ for a single journey.

Not sure how incurring extra costs at the Kebt stations, and reducing revenue with cheaper tickets, adds up as sensible business

Yeah, but my impression is that Eurostar's main market is and always has been Londoners.

As the letter is clear, Eurostars main market is Europeans…

 

[RT4038]

My wonderings are based on the fact that e* previously ran services from those stations, and generally priced fares lower than they are at the moment, and managed to turn a profit. That plus the fact they say there is substantial latent demand constrained primarily by processing space at St Pancras.

What I don't know is how much higher e* fares are now, compared with say 2019. I don't know if that information exists. Having a quick look at them today and based on what I previously might have expected, they feel like they may be in the region of £50 more per single journey at peak times.

My other observation is that the idea of running from a less convenient location with more capacity, in return for lower fares, is common in the airline world and haven't some continental HS rail operators been looking at trying the same.

In any case, I'm not arguing it would work, just curious how the numbers would end up.


I think there are quite a lot of people who would fall in that category. Just now, many of them are probably reluctantly opting for easyJet. If you're prepared to go to Luton or Stansted (plus an equivalent at the Paris end) why not Ebbsfleet and get straight to the GdN.

I don't think the comparison between low cost airline vs. legacy airline particularly transfers well to rail, specifically HS1/Channel Tunnel/French TGV lines though. How would departing from Ebbsfleet or Stratford(for instance) be any cheaper than departing from St Pancras? Is the station access charge / border control / security cost different, and by how much? The trains are going to have to travel on HS1 in either case, the Channel Tunnel and TGV lines are going to be the same price, the trains and crews are going to cost much the same.

Some continental HS rail operators may have been looking at trying the same, but have any been successful at turning in a consistent profit?

 

[Trainbike46]

I don't think the comparison between low cost airline vs. legacy airline particularly transfers well to rail, specifically HS1/Channel Tunnel/French TGV lines though. How would departing from Ebbsfleet or Stratford(for instance) be any cheaper than departing from St Pancras? Is the station access charge / border control / security cost different, and by how much? The trains are going to have to travel on HS1 in either case, the Channel Tunnel and TGV lines are going to be the same price, the trains and crews are going to cost much the same.

Some continental HS rail operators may have been looking at trying the same, but have any been successful at turning in a consistent profit?

PArt of the reason low-cost airlines use different airports is because those airports are cheaper to use, and the saving then allows for cheaper tickets. Ouigo uses uses marne-la-vallee in Paris, because the paris terminals are full (I think), so SNCF is trying to run more trains without requiring costly infrastructure upgrades, hence the saving (feel free to correct if I misunderstood anything!). Such savings opportunities do not exist for any theoretical eurostar competitor, or indeed a low-cost service run by eurostar itself

 

[RT4038]

PArt of the reason low-cost airlines use different airports is because those airports are cheaper to use, and the saving then allows for cheaper tickets. Ouigo uses uses marne-la-vallee in Paris, because the paris terminals are full (I think), so SNCF is trying to run more trains without requiring costly infrastructure upgrades, hence the saving (feel free to correct if I misunderstood anything!). Such savings opportunities do not exist for any theoretical eurostar competitor, or indeed a low-cost service run by eurostar itself

Quite!

 

[rvdborgt]

Text as follows:

The letter is now also available in PDF format on the Parliament's website:

https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/28827/documents/173991/default/

 

[paul1609]

A couple of Border officials (from each country) + security, processing one full train at a Kent station in a shift is hardly an efficient use of resources.

Ashford International is 10 miles (20 mins) by car from the Channel Tunnel. Staff were always shared between the terminals before.

 

[zwk500]

Ashford International is 10 miles (20 mins) by car from the Channel Tunnel. Staff were always shared between the terminals before.

It might be more efficient than dedicated staff but it's still not a particularly efficient use of resources.

 

[paul1609]

It might be more efficient than dedicated staff but it's still not a particularly efficient use of resources.

Its not a particularly efficient system to expect customers to pay an additional £35 for the London CIV return on top of the already uncompetitive Eurostar fare to travel 55 miles in the wrong direction then queue up for 2 hours in a hopelessly inadequate station. By the time they are passing Ashford International for the second time they could have arrived at Brussels or Lille by car via the shuttle or by parking at Frethun arrived in Gare du Nord on a domestic TGV service.

 

[Trainbike46]

Its not a particularly efficient system to expect customers to pay an additional £35 for the London CIV return on top of the already uncompetitive Eurostar fare to travel 55 miles in the wrong direction then queue up for 2 hours in a hopelessly inadequate station. By the time they are passing Ashford International for the second time they could have arrived at Brussels or Lille by car via the shuttle or by parking at Frethun arrived in Gare du Nord on a domestic TGV service.

You seem to be missing the point that, in the current situation, eurostar can't serve all the passengers who would like to take it (due to capacity restraints due to brexit) and that the Kent passengers, as the most expensive for eurostar, are the ones getting dropped. If those passengers take the shuttle instead, that really isn't so bad. I wish it wasn't so, but as Brexit happened (in part due to the voting decisions made by many residents in Kent, I might add!) this is how it is.

The situation could improve, but only if the government were to decide to do that, and it seems unlikely the current government, or the MPs for Kent for that matter, will do anything that could be seen as an improvement

 

[paul1609]

You seem to be missing the point that, in the current situation, eurostar can't serve all the passengers who would like to take it (due to capacity restraints due to brexit) and that the Kent passengers, as the most expensive for eurostar, are the ones getting dropped. If those passengers take the shuttle instead, that really isn't so bad. I wish it wasn't so, but as Brexit happened (in part due to the voting decisions made by many residents in Kent, I might add!) this is how it is.

The situation could improve, but only if the government were to decide to do that, and it seems unlikely the current government, or the MPs for Kent for that matter, will do anything that could be seen as an improvement

Im not missing the point at all. Ive said that I dont see Eurostar returning to Kent and that ultimately I see the London / Brussels/Amstetdam route being similarly uneconomic.
If the government wants to improve things what is really obviously needed is a channel road link.

 

[Trainbike46]

Im not missing the point at all. Ive said that I dont see Eurostar returning to Kent and that ultimately I see the London / Brussels/Amstetdam route being similarly uneconomic.

The four capitals routes are profitable, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

In addition, there is a chance that the EES coming in next year will, after a bedding in period, allow St Pancras capacity to increase again, allowing for passenger growth again from 2024/2025

If the government wants to improve things what is really obviously needed is a channel road link.

This is never happening, because it is a terrible idea. Cars are simply too dangerous for such a long, hard to access tunnel. And, unless you ban ICE vehicles, it would require ventilation at a level that is going to be very expensive to sustain. And you'd have to pay to build a brand new tunnel. It's not happening; the shuttle is good enough

The UK government could improve the situation in a more realistic manner by:
- Loosening border requirements via some type of agreement with the EU, increasing border capacity at St Pancras (highly unlikely)
- retrospectively applying covid help to Eurostar on conditions similar to those for airlines to reduce high cost debt (highly unlikely)
- dropping security checks for the channel tunnel, freeing up more space for passport control at St Pancras (highly unlikely)
- reducing HS1 access charges to a level more like those in France (highly unlikely)
- reducing channel tunnel access charges (highly unlikely)
- making more border force officials available, specifically the French officials, so that stations other than St Pancras can be (re)opened without reducing capacity at St Pancras (Possible, but not in the short term)

However, every single one of these points is more likely than a channel road tunnel ever being built. And most of these above won't happen in a million years. A channel road tunnel is a pipedream, and it always was

 

[mrmartin]

The four capitals routes are profitable, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

In addition, there is a chance that the EES coming in next year will, after a bedding in period, allow St Pancras capacity to increase again, allowing for passenger growth again from 2024/2025

This is never happening, because it is a terrible idea. Cars are simply too dangerous for such a long, hard to access tunnel. And, unless you ban ICE vehicles, it would require ventilation at a level that is going to be very expensive to sustain. And you'd have to pay to build a brand new tunnel. It's not happening; the shuttle is good enough

The UK government could improve the situation in a more realistic manner by:
- Loosening border requirements via some type of agreement with the EU, increasing border capacity at St Pancras (highly unlikely)
- retrospectively applying covid help to Eurostar on conditions similar to those for airlines to reduce high cost debt (highly unlikely)
- dropping security checks for the channel tunnel, freeing up more space for passport control at St Pancras (highly unlikely)
- reducing HS1 access charges to a level more like those in France (highly unlikely)
- reducing channel tunnel access charges (highly unlikely)
- making more border force officials available, specifically the French officials, so that stations other than St Pancras can be (re)opened without reducing capacity at St Pancras (Possible, but not in the short term)

However, every single one of these points is more likely than a channel road tunnel ever being built. And most of these above won't happen in a million years. A channel road tunnel is a pipedream, and it always was

You do raise a good point regarding security though. It's utterly pointless given the lack of similar security for car/lorry passengers and a hangover from the 90s bombings. I wonder if that could be quitely dropped - would open a load of extra room for additional passport booths.

But given EES is coming in, I think you're right to say it will save a lot of time and allow passenger growth anyway. It's a short term problem.

 

[RT4038]

Its not a particularly efficient system to expect customers to pay an additional £35 for the London CIV return on top of the already uncompetitive Eurostar fare to travel 55 miles in the wrong direction then queue up for 2 hours in a hopelessly inadequate station. By the time they are passing Ashford International for the second time they could have arrived at Brussels or Lille by car via the shuttle or by parking at Frethun arrived in Gare du Nord on a domestic TGV service.

In this case, the efficiency is on the part of Eurostar. They want full trains, at maximum financial yield, from the UK to various European (mainly capital) cities, for the least cost to themselves. The reasons for that are laid out in the letter (basically to finance loan repayments they were forced to take out due to Covid to remain in business). If the good burghers of Kent want trains to stop at their intermediate stations, somebody (other than Eurostar) is going to have to pay for that privilege (either increased passenger fares for users of those stations or as a subsidy). Presumably E* judge that the relatively small number of passengers using the stations will not want to pay these extra fares, so not worth the hassle of trying - so the only practicable method is try to obtain government subsidy.