EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Puffing Devil]

In other news, the government continues to spaff money up the wall by adopting to contrary positions:

• Dominic Rabb asserts that the government has the necessary votes to get the deal through the commons
• Michael Gove starts up Operation Yellowhammer - the preparations for a no-deal exit

 

[Doppelganger]

In other news, the government continues to spaff money up the wall by adopting to contrary positions:

• Dominic Rabb asserts that the government has the necessary votes to get the deal through the commons
• Michael Gove starts up Operation Yellowhammer - the preparations for a no-deal exit

A lot of analysis has gone into the fact that voting for Johnson's deal will actually result in a no deal Brexit.

As soon as parliament vote for the "deal", Johnson can then retract the extension request. This extension request is necessary however you look at it, as currently there isn't time to enact all the necessary legislation and so once the extension request is pulled, nothing will stop the UK crashing out on 31st October.

So those two points are not necessarily a contradiction.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It shows that the EU are a decent bunch...

It shows that they’re still hoping we’d reverse Brexit

 

[Peter Kelford]

They will still be hurt if we leave, not as much as us, but still hurt. If we can be persuaded to stay, I think they will allow the extension. I would think that it's on the basis we have a GE or a referendum.

Except that if 'off you go' occurred, I would find it likely that the UK would crawl back, tail between our legs, and ask for our old membership back. They would be a position of negotiating strength in that instance.

 

[Peter Kelford]

It shows that they’re still hoping we’d reverse Brexit

Well, that would be the best-case scenario for everyone concerned, wouldn't it?

 

[Peter Kelford]

A lot of analysis has gone into the fact that voting for Johnson's deal will actually result in a no deal Brexit.

As soon as parliament vote for the "deal", Johnson can then retract the extension request. This extension request is necessary however you look at it, as currently there isn't time to enact all the necessary legislation and so once the extension request is pulled, nothing will stop the UK crashing out on 31st October.

So those two points are not necessarily a contradiction.

We must thank Oliver Letwin for trying to curtail it, although Boris is probably still looking for some loophole.

 

[Bantamzen]

It shows that they’re still hoping we’d reverse Brexit

Well of course they would prefer we stayed, that for them is the path of least resistance. Why are people always surprised that the EU wants what is best for, well EU countries?

The EU have shown far more patience than leavers in this country have, mainly because they recognise that leaving the EU is a long a difficult process, that requires lengthy negotiations. It can't be switched on or off like a light switch at the behest of the nosiest in the country. Again, that international political brokering takes so long should not be a surprise to anyone, and if or when we do leave, we will have to go this process with dozens of countries. Yet over the weekend social media has been in meltdown with people complaining that they still haven't got their shiny Brexit, and that they are bored with it all so the government should just allow us to crash out.

My fear is that BoJo & Co are hoping to be able to scupper the long, boring process of finalising a deal before the end of next year in favour of a quick & dirty crash out, so that they can shout to their fans that "they did it". They do this in the full knowledge that a) They probably won't be around for too much longer if / when things go south, & b) That it won't affect them much anyway. Heck, some might even profit from it....

 

[AlterEgo]

It shows that the EU are a decent bunch...

Except that if 'off you go' occurred, I would find it likely that the UK would crawl back, tail between our legs, and ask for our old membership back. They would be a position of negotiating strength in that instance.

So not really the EU “being a decent bunch then”, simply negotiating in their own interests.

I have found it fascinating how the EU has taken on this bogus personality in the minds of some Remainers, with people wrapping themselves in the flag and “identifying as European”. This didn’t happen before Brexit.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So not really the EU “being a decent bunch then”, simply negotiating in their own interests.

I have found it fascinating how the EU has taken on this bogus personality in the minds of some Remainers, with people wrapping themselves in the flag and “identifying as European”. This didn’t happen before Brexit.

The EU is going to have a massive black hole in its finances if we leave - we are a substantial net contributor.

 

[nlogax]

I have found it fascinating how the EU has taken on this bogus personality in the minds of some Remainers, with people wrapping themselves in the flag and “identifying as European”. This didn’t happen before Brexit.

Also bear in mind that many people don't realise what they've got until they're on the cusp of losing it.

 

[jellybaby]

people wrapping themselves in the flag and “identifying as European”. This didn’t happen before Brexit

Yes it did. I've thought of myself as a Londoner first, then a European, then a citizen of the UK for decades. Some people would put English in that list but for me it would be behind things like Earthling.

 

[Killingworth]

Well, that would be the best-case scenario for everyone concerned, wouldn't it?

The majority contributing here, including me, would agree it woukd be best to remain and fight from within. However, there comes a point when we have to, very reluctantly, accept that the majority in the country doesn't understand the intricate details and simply wants 'out', and now.

Short of the miraculous appearance of a saviour to convince them otherwise, the British people are coming to accept they've got to jump. They don't appreciate what comes next. Nobody really knows how it will pan out, but staying in is now a lost cause. It remains to get the best deal as effectively as possible.

Once we're out we'll not be offered the present terms to rejoin. We can save our time thinking about it.

Now, how can we get all these problems on the railway resolved?

 

[edwin_m]

The majority contributing here, including me, would agree it woukd be best to remain and fight from within. However, there comes a point when we have to, very reluctantly, accept that the majority in the country doesn't understand the intricate details and simply wants 'out', and now.

But the majority does not want out!

Please can you stop perpetuating this leaver lie in your otherwise thought-through posts, when the consistent message of opinion polls is a small but significant majority in favour of remaining. The whole leave campaign relies on repeating lies such as this one, and on ignoring the actual truth when it isn't convenient to them (as it usually isn't).

Note that the question in these polls is the 2016 one of leave or remain or some variation of it, so the proportion for remain will increase when it is put against any specific leave option. And while one poll can be wrong, the chances of all these being wrong is vanishingly small.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...he-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/
(graphs, not quoteable, but showing typically Remain leading Leave by around 53:47 excluding don't knows for almost every poll since autumn 2017)

 

[Senex]

Please can you stop perpetuating this leaver lie in your otherwise thought-through posts, when the consistent message of opinion polls is a small but significant majority in favour of remaining. The whole leave campaign relies on repeating lies such as this one, and on ignoring the actual truth when it isn't convenient to them (as it usually isn't).

Note that the question in these polls is the 2016 one of leave or remain or some variation of it, so the proportion for remain will increase when it is put against any specific leave option. And while one poll can be wrong, the chances of all these being wrong is vanishingly small.

But one of the (many) problems with our political system seems to be that it is totally incapable of reflecting or responding to the change in public opinion that has taken place since the middle of 2016.

 

[Killingworth]

But the majority does not want out!

Please can you stop perpetuating this leaver lie in your otherwise thought-through posts, when the consistent message of opinion polls is a small but significant majority in favour of remaining. The whole leave campaign relies on repeating lies such as this one, and on ignoring the actual truth when it isn't convenient to them (as it usually isn't).

Note that the question in these polls is the 2016 one of leave or remain or some variation of it, so the proportion for remain will increase when it is put against any specific leave option. And while one poll can be wrong, the chances of all these being wrong is vanishingly small.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...he-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/
(graphs, not quoteable, but showing typically Remain leading Leave by around 53:47 excluding don't knows for almost every poll since autumn 2017)

I chose my words you quote with great care, including the punctuation, and that's very important. Note I said 'out'.

It's not what every poll since 2017 may have said that matters now. It's what people are saying this week. Can you explain how we get the nation to rally around Remain in the few days we have left, given we who desire it have failed over the last 4 years? I'm afraid there is no leader with the charisma to do it. I only wish there were.

Even if we did get another poll it would need to have a near 60:40 majority to settle it. As things stand today that would be more likely to go against Remain, and I hate having to say that. There are many we could blame for all this, but having an opposition of such incompetent third (so high?) raters has certainly helped the Brexit cause more than hindered it. That was probably inevitable once both Labour and Conservative committed to Brexit after the 2017 election, especially with Labour having a lifelong Euro-sceptic as their figurehead.

Ilkley Moor to Remain!

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I chose my words you quote with great care, including the punctuation, and that's very important. Note I said 'out'.

It's not what every poll since 2017 may have said that matters now. It's what people are saying this week. Can you explain how we get the nation to rally around Remain in the few days we have left, given we who desire it have failed over the last 4 years? I'm afraid there is no leader with the charisma to do it. I only wish there were.

Even if we did get another poll it would need to have a near 60:40 majority to settle it. As things stand today that would be more likely to go against Remain, and I hate having to say that. There are many we could blame for all this, but having an opposition of such incompetent third (so high?) raters has certainly helped the Brexit cause more than hindered it. That was probably inevitable once both Labour and Conservative committed to Brexit after the 2017 election, especially with Labour having a lifelong Euro-sceptic as their figurehead.

Ilkley Moor to Remain!
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To be fair, no government has ever managed to make a positive case for Europe. Even in 2000 something like 23% of Tory MPs were in favour of complete withdrawal. Blair wanted us to join the Euro, but couldn’t really muster the political courage to sell us a vision of it. The British public has always been told they “should” be in Europe, but have never been told they “need” Europe.

 

[Killingworth]

To be fair, no government has ever managed to make a positive case for Europe. Even in 2000 something like 23% of Tory MPs were in favour of complete withdrawal. Blair wanted us to join the Euro, but couldn’t really muster the political courage to sell us a vision of it. The British public has always been told they “should” be in Europe, but have never been told they “need” Europe.

Trouble is almost everyone I normally speak to can't understand how it's not so obvious that membership of the EU is good for us. Apparently others disagree - in very large numbers.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I think that's where Britain's incompatibility with the EU arises. Britain can understand the trade functions, to a degree, but EU membership is more than trade-its a relationship. It's like being with your girlfriend but thinking your just getting fwb and can't understand why you have to live together. Britain is the only country in Europe that needs to be "learn" almost, why they need Europe.

 

[AlterEgo]

Yes it did. I've thought of myself as a Londoner first, then a European, then a citizen of the UK for decades. Some people would put English in that list but for me it would be behind things like Earthling.

Identifying as "European" always been a minority pursuit though.

The EU is going to have a massive black hole in its finances if we leave - we are a substantial net contributor.

Stop posting inconvenient truths.

 

[nlogax]

Trouble is almost everyone I normally speak to can't understand how it's not so obvious that membership of the EU is good for us. Apparently others disagree - in very large numbers.

If there's one thing that should be obvious from the last few years, it's that facts don't actually matter so much for those wishing to leave the EU. It's less about proven and well-documented financial and social benefits and more about gut feel / instinct. For those of a remain bent it's like using bricks and mortar to contain a ghost.

 

[Peter Kelford]

what is best for, well EU countries?

Well of course, so as an EU member, they have to take into account our interests.

If there's one thing that should be obvious from the last few years, it's that facts don't actually matter so much for those wishing to leave the EU. It's less about proven and well-documented financial and social benefits and more about gut feel / instinct. For those of a remain bent it's like using bricks and mortar to contain a ghost.

Identifying as "European" always been a minority pursuit though.

Ironically, I started out in 2015/2016, not self-identifying as European, but now I would say that I am honoured to be European.

The EU is going to have a massive black hole in its finances if we leave - we are a substantial net contributor.

Stop posting inconvenient truths.

No they won't have a massive black hole as they don't need to pay us anything. And frankly, the UK has always been Mr. Awkward in Europe.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No they won't have a massive black hole as they don't need to pay us anything

Yes, they will. They will cease to receive the money from us, which exceeds the money we get from them. The difference between those two figures is a rather big black hole.

 

[Pyreneenguy]

Yes, they will. They will cease to receive the money from us, which exceeds the money we get from them. The difference between those two figures is a rather big black hole.

One of the biggest bones of contention I have with the majority of Leavers is their failure to see the bigger picture of membership of the E.U. The U.K's net contribution to E.U funding helps newer and weaker members' economies expand, which, in the long run will allow harmonization of social policies ( health care, minimum wages and so many more). It won't be achieved in 5 minutes and without the UK's modest net contribution, will take even longer.

It certainly isn't a black-hole !

 

[Peter Kelford]

Yes, they will. They will cease to receive the money from us, which exceeds the money we get from them. The difference between those two figures is a rather big black hole.

They receive money from us. We also receive money from them. Also think about how much money could be saved indirectly when Mr Awkward who demands lots of additional protections stops making trouble.

 

[AlterEgo]

One of the biggest bones of contention I have with the majority of Leavers is their failure to see the bigger picture of membership of the E.U. The U.K's net contribution to E.U funding helps newer and weaker members' economies expand, which, in the long run will allow harmonization of social policies ( health care, minimum wages and so many more). It won't be achieved in 5 minutes and without the UK's modest net contribution, will take even longer.

It certainly isn't a black-hole !

Why would we want harmonisation of social policies, out of interest? Why is this desirable?

 

[Bletchleyite]

One of the biggest bones of contention I have with the majority of Leavers is their failure to see the bigger picture of membership of the E.U. The U.K's net contribution to E.U funding helps newer and weaker members' economies expand, which, in the long run will allow harmonization of social policies ( health care, minimum wages and so many more). It won't be achieved in 5 minutes and without the UK's modest net contribution, will take even longer.

It certainly isn't a black-hole !

No, but if the UK leaves, the EU loses the surplus they make from us.

We pay in more than we get out. There are good reasons for that, but it is still a fact. The EU will no longer have that money to spend.

That is the black hole it will leave in their finances.

I'm a Remainer, but denying the facts is ridiculous.

 

[Pyreneenguy]

No, but if the UK leaves, the EU loses the surplus they make from us.

We pay in more than we get out. There are good reasons for that, but it is still a fact. The EU will no longer have that money to spend.

That is the black hole it will leave in their finances.

I'm a Remainer, but denying the facts is ridiculous.

I do not deny that the UK makes a net contribution to E.U funding. I do not say it will not be missed but I do dispute that the amount ( while obviously significant) is a black-hole compared to the economy of the UK. The E.U is not going to come to a halt. Priorities will have to found. Abuse will have to be tightened up on ( think Hungry). Further adhesion to the E.U will be delayed or annulled.

 

[Esker-pades]

No, but if the UK leaves, the EU loses the surplus they make from us.

We pay in more than we get out. There are good reasons for that, but it is still a fact. The EU will no longer have that money to spend.

That is the black hole it will leave in their finances.

I'm a Remainer, but denying the facts is ridiculous.

But why is that relevant?

We significantly benefit from EU membership. Virtually all published economic analysis says that whatever form of Brexit we choose, we'll be financially worse off. Of course the EU will suffer too, nobody is pretending that they won't. But, to assume that, just because the EU suffers we won't, is utter rubbish. That sort of zero-sum assumption is what got us into this mess in the first place.

Simply, I'd rather be better off. If it means having to pay for a motorway in Bulgaria, I don't care. Therefore, the opposite view is "yes, but at least we don't have to pay for foreigners to have roads".

 

[Pyreneenguy]

Why would we want harmonisation of social policies, out of interest? Why is this desirable?

No need for migration if you already enjoy the same wages, working conditions and standard of living throughout the E.U.

 

[Killingworth]

No, but if the UK leaves, the EU loses the surplus they make from us.

We pay in more than we get out. There are good reasons for that, but it is still a fact. The EU will no longer have that money to spend.

That is the black hole it will leave in their finances.

I'm a Remainer, but denying the facts is ridiculous.

I've paid in far more to many insurance policies than I've received back and been happy to do so. The cover has been there if needed. There might be circumstances where Britain could have become a net beneficiary. Unlikely, but seems we'll never be able to test that possibility.

However the concept of "net contributor" is lost on too many. We have benefited enormously, not least in many of the areas of Britain that needed it most - then voted to leave. Which is exactly what so much of this is all about. Doh.......... But Westminster knows best how to tax and spend so it will be alright. Fingers crossed. We pray.

Yes, I've seen the EU buildings in Strasbourg and Brussels and they are extravagant. I've also spent time in the Ardennes, Alsace and the Black Forest and can better understand the desire for reconciliation in that region. That historical digression may not be for today, but 1870-1, 1914-18, and 1939-45 left deep scars in that area. We have no idea in the UK.