EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[furnessvale]

Put it this way, how well have Brexiters done in the last 30 months? As in..they are now relying on the worst opposition leader ever (and that includes Millibland) to get their lil' old deal through??

Don't shoot the messenger. I was responding to a remainer's post.

Anyway, it will all be over tomorrow as our remainer PM has skillfully steered the Brexit process into the desired cul-de-sac.

 

[bramling]

That's quite interesting, I don't really find that people of either side I associate with are nasty (though I do find the majority of Leavers I associate with are incredibly misinformed, though not all of them). But that's mainly because I don't choose to associate with nasty people, by and large, and I'm sure you're the same.

Work brings me into contact with people I wouldn’t choose to socialise with!

 

[yorkie]

.... from they didn’t know what they were voting for....

Please do explain exactly what you think they were voting for then?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The EU member states must regard the current hiatus of the British political views expressed in these now-numerous votes in the House of Commons as something akin to Britain still thinking vast areas of the Map of the World still being coloured red and attempting to view matters in the same way as in Days of Empire.

 

[404250]

As in..they are now relying on the worst opposition leader ever (and that includes Millibland) to get their lil' old deal through??

It's May's deal and she voted remain.

 

[Groningen]

Well at least Boris Johnson has a new haircut. Maybe it will make him more reliable. I say maybe. Not all that hair affected by the wind anymore.

 

[404250]

I wouldn't vote for their party, but Boris and Reece-Mogg at least have character and seem to say what they think. I'd rather have a few interesting politicians like them than some of the other ultra bland MPs on both sides.

 

[DanDaDriver]

I wouldn't vote for their party, but Boris and Reece-Mogg at least have character and seem to say what they think. I'd rather have a few interesting politicians like them than some of the other ultra bland MPs on both sides.

I think history has taught us the danger of voting in politicians solely on their charisma.

 

[edwin_m]

I wouldn't vote for their party, but Boris and Reece-Mogg at least have character and seem to say what they think. I'd rather have a few interesting politicians like them than some of the other ultra bland MPs on both sides.

They're informed enough to see where this is heading. And it's deeply worrying that knowing what they know they still support it.

 

[yorkie]

I think history has taught us the danger of voting in politicians solely on their charisma.

Most of us.

 

[Intercity 225]

I think that May’s meeting with Corbyn could result in a confirmatory referendum being bolted onto a lightly modified version of May’s Withdrawal Agreement.

Rationale

May is desperate to get her withdrawal deal over the line and can’t do so without Labour support. Labour will only provide this if they can justifiably claim that they’ve made noticeable amendments to it.

Corbyn personally wants to leave the EU and I get the impression he’s only been interested in pushing for a Customs Union in order to be thorn in the side of the Tories. He actually would be perfectly happy with May’s deal or even a hard Brexit.

That being said the majority of the youth in the Labour party membership, who Corbyn relies on to remain party leader want to remain in the EU. They’ve been largely unhappy with his vague stance towards a second referendum and this is an opportunity for him to get them back fully on his side.

May can claim that she’s tried to deliver Brexit without going back to the people but has been prevented by Parliament from doing so. Having to rely on Labour gives her a get out clause on running another referendum, whilst simultaneously giving her the ability to say “the will of the people has changed” if the referendum result goes in favour of EU membership.

The EU are also highly unlikely to make any significant changes to the withdrawal agreement at this stage but they have shown willingness to extend Article 50 in order for the UK to carry out a referendum.

Immediate Subsequent Actions

May to put her deal to Parliament with the confirmatory referendum attached. With the result of this new referendum not being advisory but binding in law.

Labour to stop pushing for a customs union but there will be some trivial promises about workers’ rights being protected in the slightly modified withdrawal agreement, which Corbyn can sell to his supporters as a Labour victory.

Both parties will then whip to support the proposal.

 

[Bantamzen]

The EU member states must regard the current hiatus of the British political views expressed in these now-numerous votes in the House of Commons as something akin to Britain still thinking vast areas of the Map of the World still being coloured red and attempting to view matters in the same way as in Days of Empire.

It isn't just the EU that sees us like that, it's people do increasingly see us as a parochial, insular & colonialist*. In recent years (since leaving the EU has moved into the main political spectrum here) I've spoken to many Europeans living here & in the rest of the EU, and most regard the UK as something still lingering at least in the middle of the last century, if not the one before. Many people in Europe are not entirely happy with the way the EU is run, but many see the best options are to effect change from within, not without. And for all the bad points they may raise, most still see the EU as generally a good thing and one that can benefit them either directly or indirectly.

So many Europeans are genuinely confused as to why there is such a movement in the UK to not only leave the EU, but to try to effectively stick two fingers up at them in the hope that the rest of Europe will collapse to it's knees and beg forgiveness. And a good proportion of those I've talked to conclude that the UK is neck deep in a desire to reset the clock to an era when we "ruled the waves". That should worry a lot of people, because given just how much we rely on overseas investment for business and infrastructure, this growing perception is not going to help this to continue.

(* Before anyone starts complaining, I am not suggesting all leavers are like this, just communicating how people I have interacted with feel about the UK as a whole)

 

[AM9]

Isn't that contrary to perceived remainer logic?

How can anyone be both informed AND a Brexiter?

The speculators pushing for the highest risk exit have always fully understood that the ensuing chaos is a good opportunity for them to profit from those who will suffer for their misguided beliefs.

 

[SteveP29]

Honda is shutting its plant for many reasons ! The U.K. motoring manufacturing has been declining for years , all of it moving into the Eu

Like Ford moving Transit production to Turkey you mean, that Europe?

 

[SteveP29]

Have you got any facts regarding the Vauxhall plant will be pulled due to brexit?
It’s by no means certain it will shut , however I think it will go based on what I know and it’s. Nothing to do with leaving the EU.
As I said the motor industry, particularly building cars has struggled for 30-40 years in the U.K. , most of the manufacturing has moved to the EU

On the continent, they're badged as Opel, so it would make more sense to build them all in the EU and pay the smaller tariff to import Astra's badged as Vauxhall to the UK than to pay the tariffs on massive numbers of Opel badged Astra's going from the UK into the EU, so there's no need for GM to have such a huge plant on Merseyside utilising less than a fifth of it's capacity.

Two people working 16 hours a week rather than one working 32 hours might mean more employment in general but do each of those employees actually earn enough to live on?, esp. if the government does not help out.

The employing company also arguably pays less in NI and pension payments for 2 part time employees than one full time

 

[DarloRich]

I agree the damage has been done, things are going to take a long time to heal.

Unfortunately I’m not surprised. Before the dust had even settled on the morning after the referendum we were hearing people say things like “we don’t have to have this”. Since then we’ve heard everything under the sun aimed at leave voters, from they didn’t know what they were voting for, to leave voters are less well educated, through to leave voters being xenophobic.

However, that is true in varying degrees. The educational point has been shown to be true. More people with university educations voted to remain. Many of the statements heard and posted by leave voters are outrageously thick. You only have to listen to a radio 5 vox pops to know that! However more worrying is the lack of access to impartial information and/or the weighting of such information in favour of obviously biased sources of "alternative facts". It goes as far as the rejection of facts in favour of utter codswallop pedaled by chancers because that reinforces internal prejudices and affirms the listeners view as being correct

I know you wont agree but this is a serious problem and shows how easily manipulated vast sections of our society are. That is not a good thing. We have to use Brexit as an opportunity to educate people and improve knowledge about our political, legal and constitutional apparatus and operation.

Many people had no idea what they were voting for, many people clearly did not understand the concepts they were being asked to judge and many seem to have swallowed, without critical thought, the guff they were fed. That was especially true of the work required to deliver "leave". This created staggering ignorance of the EU which was, in my view, exploited by actors for their own aims.

PS We are overlooking the entire Farage/UKIP project which was based on a refusal to accept a referendum decision then

Meanwhile, a batch of MPs who have never really bought into it, but were presumably happy to stand on a leave manifesto in 2017. Add into this one party leader angling for a general election as his shot to nothing to get into power, and another who will angle for a certain other referendum at any cost.

Yet no criticism of the DUP or the ERG? Their pig headed intransigence is at least as blame worthy as all the others! There are very few involved acting in the national interest and those that are are aggressively criticised, by leave voters in particular, for doing so!

The one thing I’ll say is that of the people I associate with, generally those that support leave tend to be by far the nicer kinder people. I can only speak from experience, however a disproportionate number of remain supporters I associate with are complete nasty pieces of work, the types who don’t have enough shoulders upon which to rest all their various chips.

I am not sure we want to play that game when you have Yaxley-Lennon ranting and raving to a crowd of cheering Brexit fans in central London about browns and forigns!

The country needs to decent leader to pull things together, but good leadership talent is in short supply at the moment. All the parties are really scraping the barrel at the moment in that respect.

Agreed - and that wont improve when May is replaced by a crackpot Brexiteer like Raab!

 

[SteveP29]

Why hasn't the EU done anything about the gig economy.

It makes their unemployment figures look good, and those who only have a passing interest are likely to take in what they're being told.
All in the name of looking more electable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It makes their unemployment figures look good, and those who only have a passing interest are likely to take in what they're being told.
All in the name of looking more electable.

Why hasn't the UK done something about it? We don't need the EU to handhold us on everything.

 

[radamfi]

However, that is true in varying degrees. The educational point has been shown to be true. More people with university educations voted to remain. Many of the statements heard and posted by leave voters are outrageously thick.

This surely reflects on the poor education that so many people in this country have had. However, in my latest company I work mostly with people in their 20s and I would say they are better educated than people my age (mid 40s). All graduates, mostly STEM graduates, and there is not one Leaver among them.

 

[Kite159]

On the continent, they're badged as Opel, so it would make more sense to build them all in the EU and pay the smaller tariff to import Astra's badged as Vauxhall to the UK than to pay the tariffs on massive numbers of Opel badged Astra's going from the UK into the EU, so there's no need for GM to have such a huge plant on Merseyside utilising less than a fifth of it's capacity.

The employing company also arguably pays less in NI and pension payments for 2 part time employees than one full time

Didn't GM off-load Vauxhall/Opel to the Peugeot group a few years ago? (so the plant is probably at a higher risk as they could utilised one of the under-utilised factories in France)

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Steptoe/Magic Grandpa/Corbyn is someone who dislikes the EU, but if he senses there is a way to attempt to force a general election he/his handlers will throw the country to the dogs in his vague attempts to get into power

 

[Bletchleyite]

Didn't GM off-load Vauxhall/Opel to the Peugeot group a few years ago? (so the plant is probably at a higher risk as they could utilised one of the under-utilised factories in France)

Yes, they're PSA owned now. I'd expect a lot of harmonisation in due course - Peugeots and Citroens, for instance, use the same platform for each vehicle class even if these days the bodies look different (though that wasn't always true - the Peugeots and Citroens of the 2000s were identical bar the badge and trim, and some still near enough are e.g. the Berlingo/Rifter).

 

[dosxuk]

Many people had no idea what they were voting for

Of course they did! They were voting for Brexit! They get very upset when you tell them they don't know what they voted for, that upset they refuse to answer what they actually voted for. After all Brexit means Brexit and it's the government's job to just get on with it!

 

[Bantamzen]

Of course they did! They were voting for Brexit! They get very upset when you tell them they don't know what they voted for, that upset they refuse to answer what they actually voted for. After all Brexit means Brexit and it's the government's job to just get on with it!

If it helps, there are lots of posters available for sale online (often for as little as just over a tenner!) that carry the slogan in large, helpful letters, and even sometimes in capitals to help those people that don't realise that Brexit means Brexit. And if you are still unsure of this message even with these posters, then I'm afraid you must be a Remoaner, traitor, villain & unpatriotic scoundrel that should leave the country to go live in the EU. Although you may have to wait until all the leavers who despise the EU have left for the EU first.....

 

[robk23oxf]

Of course they did! They were voting for Brexit! They get very upset when you tell them they don't know what they voted for, that upset they refuse to answer what they actually voted for. After all Brexit means Brexit and it's the government's job to just get on with it!

When I ask people why they voted leave they trot out the usual answers of 'will of the people', 'Britain will be great again' and 'getting rid of the un-elected Brussels dictators'. They make a lot of noise without actually being able to give an answer that explains how we will benefit from leaving the EU. Of course the flaw with the referendum was nobody knew if there would be a deal or not and what either scenario would entail.

On that basis I couldn't see the referendum as a question of 'do we want to leave the EU?' or not, more as a question of 'do we want to take a chance?'

 

[edwin_m]

The only Leave argument that I've seen anywhere that has a shred of credibility is the concern about immigration. And even that one has two major flaws:
- Numerous studies have shown that immigration is good for the economy, though this doesn't matter to people voting for emotional rather than rational reasons
- As mentioned by several previous posters, we could have imposed significant restrictions on EU immigration at any time if the Westminster government had so decided, and still could if we remained in the EU

The trade argument makes no sense whatever, we already have control over our borders by choosing not to join Schengen, and we can even have blue passports within the EU!

As an example of the reasons for Leave, I was talking to an acquaintance before the referendum. Despite all the benefits of being in the EU he planned to vote Leave on the sole ground that foreign criminals couldn't be thrown out of the UK (which I think is another myth anyway).

 

[Bantamzen]

The only Leave argument that I've seen anywhere that has a shred of credibility is the concern about immigration. And even that one has two major flaws:
- Numerous studies have shown that immigration is good for the economy, though this doesn't matter to people voting for emotional rather than rational reasons
- As mentioned by several previous posters, we could have imposed significant restrictions on EU immigration at any time if the Westminster government had so decided, and still could if we remained in the EU

The trade argument makes no sense whatever, we already have control over our borders by choosing not to join Schengen, and we can even have blue passports within the EU!

As an example of the reasons for Leave, I was talking to an acquaintance before the referendum. Despite all the benefits of being in the EU he planned to vote Leave on the sole ground that foreign criminals couldn't be thrown out of the UK (which I think is another myth anyway).

Much of the early leave campaign, driven particularly by UKIP focused very much on the kind of issues that played on the conscious & subconscious fears of some voters (e.g. immigration, border security, job security). They then bombarded social media with numerous posts & memes that spread quite effectively, and that quickly spawned similar ones from individuals, each ever so slightly more twisting the last until such channels became terribly inaccurate to downright false. This almost certainly had an effect on the result, and on perceptions of what Brexit was going to deliver thereafter. Even now, the more leave-leaning members of my social media circles continue to regurgitate ever more ridiculous posts for which I have long grown tired of debunking, and now use the "Don't want to see" filters to stop them appearing on my feeds.

It is amazing how such loosely validated information channels can feed not only people's perceptions of a situation, but actually led them to believe some quite fanciful myths. Similar, albeit more sophisticated methods were used by the campaigns in the 2016 US Presidentials, and leave a lot to be desired & a lot to worry about for future democratic processes in what we still like to call the developed nations.

 

[404250]

You could give all the reasons you stated, but most leave voters wouldn't change their minds. I suppose it's a bit like changing your season ticket to a rival football club that has better seating, lower prices, better players and better transport links. Nobody would. Brexit has become tribal.

 

[Bantamzen]

You could give all the reasons you stated, but most leave voters wouldn't change their minds. I suppose it's a bit like changing your season ticket to a rival football club that has better seating, lower prices, better players and better transport links. Nobody would. Brexit has become tribal.

This is true, as well as having become very polarised with compromise being seen by both extremes as unacceptable.

 

[Esker-pades]

You could give all the reasons you stated, but most leave voters wouldn't change their minds. I suppose it's a bit like changing your season ticket to a rival football club that has better seating, lower prices, better players and better transport links. Nobody would. Brexit has become tribal.

And this is what's happened. I'd argue mostly on the leave side, but there are tribal remain supporters.

The problem is that the leaders didn't start with compromise. To me, a 52:48 split means leave, but retain a very close relationship*. But, that is not what happened. Instead, the screaming from everyone caused the majority in the centre to move out, leaving a gaping hole where the consensus should be.

See the differences between the campaign and governing mentalities:
Esentially, a "campaign mentality" is a very adversarial one. The opposition can never say anything right, and everything that you say is the best thing that could ever happen. That is the one used in elections.
A "governing mentality" is one which accepts that there must be compromise to move forwards with policy and government. Thus, although the policies will be slanted towards the governing party (or parties), there will be moderations.

Brexit is a perfect example where everyone is still in the "campaign mentality" phrase. The referendum was never the end of the debate. Instead, it has continued with some hell-bent on leaving on the hardest of hard Brexit (as an example). This is a perfect example of why the campaign mentality doesn't work in practice (and should only be used during elections).

This isn't a phenomena unique to Brexit. Because of the constant coverage of politics, politicians are constantly in this "campaign mentality" because the moment they have a go at consensus, they are bitten by the media. They are so worried about public image and PR that they feel forced into a perpetual state of electoral campaigning rather than settling down for 4-5 years to govern properly in the national interest.


*Assuming that there were no irregularities (which there were).

 

[Bletchleyite]

The only Leave argument that I've seen anywhere that has a shred of credibility is the concern about immigration. And even that one has two major flaws:
- Numerous studies have shown that immigration is good for the economy, though this doesn't matter to people voting for emotional rather than rational reasons
- As mentioned by several previous posters, we could have imposed significant restrictions on EU immigration at any time if the Westminster government had so decided, and still could if we remained in the EU

I think there is a wider debate to be had there. It would be possible to reduce immigration substantially, but only if one of the following (at least) is true:
- Significant tax increases for working people, going up more over time
- Significant increase to inheritance tax
- Higher retirement age
- Substantial NHS cuts
- English families to be encouraged to have more than 2 children

Otherwise we are just getting older and costlier without bringing in more income to pay for it.

FWIW, I think things may have been done badly to cause this disquiet when e.g. large numbers of Eastern European migrants came to the UK - in particular, I object to not being able to communicate properly in English with someone working in a customer-facing role in England - and there was a lot of that. Interestingly my housemate and good friend is Polish and agrees with this (and speaks excellent English despite often putting himself down for the standard of it).