https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47663031
Scroll down to the analysis by Laura Kuenssberg, there is a flow chart of the options and potential outcomes.
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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47663031
Scroll down to the analysis by Laura Kuenssberg, there is a flow chart of the options and potential outcomes.
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Howardh
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Brexit summarised in one!!
Howardh
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it is a very crafty move...but won't fool anyone. It's the King's Cross/Brent Cross/Preston Road gambit with loop (on Fridays only) and Barry Cryer spotted it every time, so it ain't going past the DUP!
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
But that article was from 22 March, so can't possibly be about the text of tomorrow's vote.
The analysis is the same. The UK must agree May's deal by tomorrow or be locked in to April 12th as a date of leaving. Her deal will not be agreed tomorrow (Bercow sorted that), therefore, April 12 becomes the default exit date. To achieve the May 22nd date, MPs must agree to a 'way forward' an agreement tomorrow will meet that criteria very tenuously but it will allow for the date to be extended. 'No deal' has been taken off the table and is an absolute red line. Therefore, by default, if nothing gets agreed tomorrow then we are leaving the EU on April 12th, with or without a deal. Hence the ability sit and do nothing. If she hadn't offered her head on a pate I would say this was a brilliant move by her but it stinks of incompetence on all sides.
I think it was Barnier who was saying that the UK to participate in the elections would be an absolute no (I forget his exact words) but if we are still in the EU beyond May 22nd then we have no choice but to participate in the elections.
Jon Worths analysis just highlights it in greater detail and hammers the nail further in but Laura's chart still flows true. There must be some form of movement tomorrow or we are "£$!"£%$"ed.
Deal - extension to May 22nd
No deal - extension to April 12th
The other options were to revoke article 50 (not gonna happen) or stay in the EU past May 22nd as fully paid up members and go deep into that black hole. (absolute disaster/crisis)
Howardh
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If, under "normal circumstances" ie. the transition period, we SHOULD have MEP's im place so the EU doesn't do something that affects us without us having a say? If we are gonna have a near-on 2 year extension to Brexit - which hasn't yet been ruled out - then surely we MUST have MEP's in place?
Esker-pades
Established Member
The transition period means we are subject to EU laws but have no say in them.
That's what the great repeal bill was for
Busaholic
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Let's just bung Northern Ireland a further £10 billion and tell them they're on their own now. Great Britain is just that, forget the United Kingdom, 'cause it sure ain't. the Irish 'question' has dragged us down for centuries and will shortly let us join the Belfast-built Titanic at the bottom of the ocean unless we take drastic action. For avoidance of doubt, although my tone might be jokey I'm deadly serious. They'll be the death of all of us!
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I think there is a very high risk of the Troubles restarting. Those small letterbombs were just an indication that <accent type="Gerry Adams">The IRA haven't gone away, they are still here</accent>.
Giugiaro
Established Member
A general election now is a recipe for No Deal, since the deadline would be reached way before the new political arrangement was settled. There's just no time at all.
bramling
Veteran Member
I don’t think it would help. There would be a number of conflicting factors, not least the position of each party and/or each potential candidate towards Brexit. So you could have someone furious that the Conservatives failed to deliver Brexit on the 29th, but who equally doesn’t want Corbyn and company in power. Or likewise someone who wants to vote UKIP to make a point, but in practice splitting the vote of the other parties and them ending up with Corbyn as PM.
In any case I still think the result would be quite similar to 2017. For the reason that the Conservatives are a mess, but so is Labour, and many people’s view will simply have become more entrenched over the last two years.
Add in some deselection rows on both sides and it could be a real mess.
Karl
On Moderation
29th March 2019. Let's get out! I'm tired of all this kerfuffle.
I too don't see how a general election would help, given our system. However damaged that system is, it still relies on a choice between two parties. And on the greatest issue of our time, the Brexit question, both parties are riven within themselves. If May's attempt today at further gerrymandering, by trying to ensure that an unelected future Tory PM can get a clear field to try to negotiate a really hard Brexit, fails, then isn't this a question that does have to be answered by a further referendum, however much we may dislike and even fear the idea after the bitter experience of Cameron's appallingly-designed project and the follow up in May's rigidly partisan performance with her red lines, her desire to appeal only to the Tory party, and her often-repeated statements about the "will of the people" and "what the British people voted for" that have studiously ignored the 48% and made not the slightest attempt to create any form of national unity?
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
The only way the kerfuffle is going to end in the near future is if we revoke Article 50. Getting out will NOT end it - because the process of cleaning up the mess, negotiating our place in the World and so on - is likely to take another couple of years. And that will be another couple of years when the Government has almost no bandwidth to deal with any of the pressing domestic issues like crime and homelessness and the NHS because it's too busy trying to sort out the after-effects of Brexit.
I'm going for answer B
It's a con pure and simple buy May hasn't realised that not only does everyone know it's a con they still won't vote for it.
-insert vaguely understandable comparison here-
It's like parliament are warning may that when she goes to Brussels she needs an adaptor to be able to plug in her mobile phone but she keeps insisting she doesn't only to find when she gets there that her adaptor won't fit and expects the hotel to change the sockets, the hotel won't change the sockets to suit her in the same way parliament won't vote for her crappy deal.
Mvann
Member
The thing is, unless I've missed something, aren't most of the problems with the withdrawal agreement. In which case it's going to be defeated again anyway.
Does anyone know whether any university is carrying out a study into the media treatment of the Brexit process? One person's impressions can be but very partial and so possibly wholly misleading, but I have certainly been struck by the way the BBC seem to have been giving the top spots on programmes such as Today so often to government spokesmen, with opposition speakers and remain defenders more often than not in the secondary slots. And one is left wondering why people like Ian Duncan Smith and David Davies are called upon quite so often. I have seen comments in several other places that over the last few years Nigel Farage has had far more exposure on radio and television than seems justified. There's another debate to be had about the line taken by interviewers, of course, but in the first instance it would be interesting to know simply in terms of time and prestige slots how the balance has been going.
Mvann
Member
I don't know if any university has yet, but I suspect that with the BBC, itn and the older broadcasters this is probably to do with protocol and with who makes themselves available for interviews. It also probably has some unintended bias from the editorial team as to how the story makes sense.
Diidny you dismiss this when I said that easier in the thread as project fear.
BTW
it's March 29th!!! HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!!!!
of course, in the UK every day is Independence Day, on account of the fact we're already an independent sovereign country, inside the EU
one could seriously argue that Brexit has been a complete waste of time and money. We have spent and lost more money from the UK economy than we would ever have paid in memship fees (annually).
says Lord King of a no-deal Brexit in the Lords yesterday.
The hyprocry of jrm shows no sign of ending
https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1111408086793609217?s=19
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
No, not me. It's a very valid concern to me.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
In other news the "celebratory" 50p has been postponed. I assume it's been produced as a suitable value to pay the Brexit dividend with.
SteveP29
Member
Less than half a dozen posts in a thread over 17,000 posts long, sense of perspective required.
I like it
I look forward to when Labour are back in so in a couple of years we can have a big recession again.
It probably won’t be completely down to them but it’ll be nice to blame the idiots again.
SteveP29
Member
So what about the EU nationals that live here that weren't afforded a vote in the referendum?
Citizens of nowhere eh??
I think I see a tiny flaw in your hypocritical plan there!
Apologies. If it wasn't you. I raised this ages ago and can't remember who replied and didn't have time to check.
SteveP29
Member
I work with a Brazilian, every major election they have in Brazil forces him to go to the Brazilian embassy in London to cast his vote, or he could be imprisoned in Brazil.
So just bvecause your dad din't, doesn't mean to say others don't have to either
That's why everybody else ignored 404250's post.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Er, no. The idea would be that they would get a vote, but Brits living in e.g. Spain wouldn't.
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