EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[dosxuk]

She can't be got rid as leader of the Conservative party, so the only way she can go is if some Conservative MPs cute against a motion of no confidence. They isn't likely to happen.

Until May's speech blaming MPs for the delay the other day that is. Several Tory MPs are now saying they'd vote against her at a governmental vote of no-confidence. Added to that, she's lost the support of the whips office, so there's nobody going to be telling MPs they have to vote as she instructs. It's now a clear case of when she leaves rather than if, her leadership is over, only the job title remains until she comes to that realisation herself.

As for Corbyn, he was over in Brussels talking to a few leaders yesterday. Why he hasn't called for another no confidence vote yet, even though he would almost certainly win it at this stage, is unbelievable. Worst PM of all time coupled with worst opposition of all time, no wonder we're in such a mess!

 

[Mvann]

Because he will do that next week after the deal is voted down again

 

[dosxuk]

Because he will do that next week after the deal is voted down again

Yeah, don't do it while the Tories are actively fighting with each other in the Commons, wait until they've had a weekend to reflect that if they vote against Theresa, it could be Corbyn in charge instead. The only conclusion I can draw is that he doesn't actually want to take over until we've left and he can blame the Tories for how bad a deal we got rather than taking any responsibility himself.

 

[d9009alycidon]

The most likely outcome of any General Election would be another hung parliament, which would not improve matters at all, The Conservative Party is in chaos, the Labour party is no better. I cannot see any other way out just now but a Hard Brexit imposed by the EU as they are sick fed up with the bickering

 

[Mvann]

So what are the odds for a general election and the European elections on the same day?

 

[superkev]

I wish someone would start a petition/ campaign for a 3rd option i.e. suspend article 50 indefinitely and attempt to negotiate a better deal for staying in.
And. Send someone to do the negotiation who has more skill than the last one (Cameron). Thatcher would have eaten anglophobe Junker for breakfast.
K

 

[Doppelganger]

I cannot see any other way out just now but a Hard Brexit imposed by the EU as they are sick fed up with the bickering

Imposed by the EU? The UK have got themselves into this mess and nothing is being "imposed" on them.

The UK can revoke Article 50 at any time without any input from any other EU member state.

 

[Journeyman]

So what are the odds for a general election and the European elections on the same day?

Absolutely no chance. May would rather nuke Westminster than enter the EU elections.

 

[bramling]

I wish someone would start a petition/ campaign for a 3rd option i.e. suspend article 50 indefinitely and attempt to negotiate a better deal for staying in.
And. Send someone to do the negotiation who has more skill than the last one (Cameron). Thatcher would have eaten anglophobe Junker for breakfast.
K

Our chance to get anything better off the EU has been blown by parliament / MPs consistently making it clear they would never go for no deal. Look at yesterday - up until then the EU’s position was very clear, extension for May’s deal or no extension and no deal. The moment when it looked like no deal might just happen, EU have changed their mind slightly. One wonders what we might have got had MPs actively supported May’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” position instead of rubbishing it.

We are of course now in another iteration of mess and farce thanks to May upsetting all the MPs on Wednesday.

 

[Mvann]

If the EU imposed a hard brexit, that would make their life difficult with the upcoming European elections. If the EU extends article 50 so that uk has to have European elections to, that causes the EU a headache as the uk generally has a low turn out and risks having a lot of ukip meps to add to the populist/nationalist meps they are expecting in Brussels

 

[bramling]

If the EU imposed a hard brexit, that would make their life difficult with the upcoming European elections. If the EU extends article 50 so that uk has to have European elections to, that causes the EU a headache as the uk generally has a low turn out and risks having a lot of ukip meps to add to the populist/nationalist meps they are expecting in Brussels

Pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to has indicated they would vote UKIP in any EU election.

 

[Howardh]

The most likely outcome of any General Election would be another hung parliament, which would not improve matters at all,

Well it would if it were Labour/SNP/Libdem as Labour would have to take their views on board and soften/abandon Brexit.

 

[Bantamzen]

Pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to has indicated they would vote UKIP in any EU election.

Well then that settles it eh?

And even if that were the case nationally, what exactly would it solve? It seems to me that UKIP are as much a part of the problem as the rest of the political spectrum. Post-Farage UKIP are a mess, so voting for them would be like shooting yourself in the other foot having already taken out your first one. No wonder this country is in such a mess, politically we are rapidly becoming as naive as Americans...

 

[Dave1987]

Our chance to get anything better off the EU has been blown by parliament / MPs consistently making it clear they would never go for no deal. Look at yesterday - up until then the EU’s position was very clear, extension for May’s deal or no extension and no deal. The moment when it looked like no deal might just happen, EU have changed their mind slightly. One wonders what we might have got had MPs actively supported May’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” position instead of rubbishing it.

We are of course now in another iteration of mess and farce thanks to May upsetting all the MPs on Wednesday.

May is a busted flush and so is the UK. Threatening to walk away with no deal just because the trading block you are desperate to have a trade deal with post Brexit isn’t capitulating to your every demand is just as irresponsible as parading lies around on the side of a red bus. The EU isn’t desperate for a trade deal with us. Remember hardcore Brexiteers claiming the German car companies would be demanding a free trade deal? Well it turns out the integrity of the single market is more important to them than seeing the EU bow to the UK demands. Remember Fox claiming that there would be 30 odd trade deals in place by the time Brexit happened? He has managed a handful because the UK isn’t a big deal to the world economy and they want more favourable deals for them. The sooner we get it into our heads that we are not an all conquering powerhouse that other countries quiver at the sight of the better. We were a very big part of the biggest trading block in the world. In future we will be a tiny island with a tiny economy on the north west corner of Europe.

 

[bramling]

Well it would if it were Labour/SNP/Libdem as Labour would have to take their views on board and soften/abandon Brexit.

I don’t think that coalition would happen. Lib Dems don’t seem to have gained any ground at all, to most people they’re pretty much an irrelevance at the moment. Unless the Conservatives completely implode I can’t see Labour doing massively better than last time, on the contrary in fact Corbyn is just as bad as May for different reasons. So as things stand the numbers aren’t quite there, although it is close.

Not to mention anything involving the SNP would be highly toxic to many elsewhere in Britain - if the DUP leave an off taste in the mouth, the SNP are positively vomit-inducing to many, not to mention they are reducing in popularity in Scotland and have a pretty major scandal going on.

 

[bramling]

Well then that settles it eh?

And even if that were the case nationally, what exactly would it solve? It seems to me that UKIP are as much a part of the problem as the rest of the political spectrum. Post-Farage UKIP are a mess, so voting for them would be like shooting yourself in the other foot having already taken out your first one. No wonder this country is in such a mess, politically we are rapidly becoming as naive as Americans...

I’ve always voted for something disruptive in EP elections, simply because I don’t respect it.

Yes UKIP are a mess now, although they could easily regroup should there be a vacant space on the political spectrum for them. One of the main reason we got a referendum was because people were voting for them, in sufficient numbers that it was bugging one of the main parties.

 

[SHD]

Our chance to get anything better off the EU has been blown by parliament / MPs consistently making it clear they would never go for no deal. Look at yesterday - up until then the EU’s position was very clear, extension for May’s deal or no extension and no deal. The moment when it looked like no deal might just happen, EU have changed their mind slightly.

EU have not changed their minds. Remember that "May's deal or no deal" is a result of the UK's red lines. Yesterday's decision is a buoy thrown to a wretched seafarer in command of raft N°. 10 Downing Street. There is a writing on the buoy: "Reconsider your position".

One wonders what we might have got had MPs actively supported May’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” position instead of rubbishing it.

You would have got no deal.

 

[Bantamzen]

I’ve always voted for something disruptive in EP elections, simply because I don’t respect it.

Yes UKIP are a mess now, although they could easily regroup should there be a vacant space on the political spectrum for them. One of the main reason we got a referendum was because people were voting for them, in sufficient numbers that it was bugging one of the main parties.

Well if that was your reasoning then that makes you part of the problem too I'm afraid. Because for all they wanted to disrupt the EU, all they have achieved is giving people false expectations and distracting from the reality of the situation, lamely titleling anything that didn't promise them unicorns and rainbows "Project Fear". The trouble is that people's genuine concerns turned out to have foundation and instead of brokering a deal that could be accepted by the majority of the House, the government have been trying to appease the shouty Brexiteers and has as a result fluffed the deal completely.

What an achievement eh? Makes you proud to be British eh? Meanwhile the EU continues as usual, with little more than a contemptuous look at us over it's shoulder. The only question for Kippers is now what else would you like to disrupt, I hear some trains still run to time so there's a starter for 10...

 

[Howardh]

I don’t think that coalition would happen. Lib Dems don’t seem to have gained any ground at all, to most people they’re pretty much an irrelevance at the moment. Unless the Conservatives completely implode I can’t see Labour doing massively better than last time, on the contrary in fact Corbyn is just as bad as May for different reasons. So as things stand the numbers aren’t quite there, although it is close.

Not to mention anything involving the SNP would be highly toxic to many elsewhere in Britain - if the DUP leave an off taste in the mouth, the SNP are positively vomit-inducing to many, not to mention they are reducing in popularity in Scotland and have a pretty major scandal going on.

Libdems have 12 seats if I'm correct, which is two more than the DUP; and look what a mes that causes! SNP won't be toxic now to remain voters, I voted Tory in 15 to keep the SNP away from power, by 17 I'd changed my mind completely and voted Labour (in Eng) in the hope of a Lab/SNP coalition. The SNP are the only relatively sane party around, they are certainly the only one not divided - save for the greens!

 

[radamfi]

The European elections are the only elections most of us actually get a say. Unless you have a Mayor or devolved parliament, or local election in Scotland, all other "elections" we get to "vote" in use FPTP.

 

[Howardh]

The European elections are the only elections most of us actually get a say. Unless you have a Mayor or devolved parliament, or local election in Scotland, all other "elections" we get to "vote" in use FPTP.

Funny how they are happy to vote for UKIP @ Euro elections yet continually bleat about how "undemocratic" the EU is. What's the point of voting for someone on one hand when, on the other, they think it's all totally pointless?

 

[jellybaby]

Pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to has indicated they would vote UKIP in any EU election.

Were you at a UKIP rally at the time?

No one I've spoken to has indicated they would vote UKIP.

 

[Mvann]

The European elections are the only elections most of us actually get a say. Unless you have a Mayor or devolved parliament, or local election in Scotland, all other "elections" we get to "vote" in use FPTP.

And yet so few people vote in European elections. There is probably less than half of those voted remain actual do vote in European elections and yet they care about Europe so much

 

[DynamicSpirit]

And yet so few people vote in European elections. There is probably less than half of those voted remain actual do vote in European elections and yet they care about Europe so much

I would hazard a guess that if we did have the EU elections, turnout this time would be rather higher than usual.

 

[Howardh]

And yet so few people vote in European elections. There is probably less than half of those voted remain actual do vote in European elections and yet they care about Europe so much

We don't know as it's a secret vote! I would suspect most remainers vote in the EU elections, but there can't be any official figures.

 

[Dave1987]

And yet so few people vote in European elections. There is probably less than half of those voted remain actual do vote in European elections and yet they care about Europe so much

I don’t know about the rest of the UK population but everyone in my family votes in every election! Many many people gave their lives to give us the right to vote. The EU in the guise of the EEC was created on the back of two world wars that cost millions and millions of lives. Yet lots and lots of British people have said they “stand with Tommy Robinson” despite the fact he has been banned from all social media because he incites hatred and has arguably caused terror incidents! That’s the kind of people UKIP associate with. Which is rather ironic considering UKIP are hate the very institution that was set up to stop world wars from happening again!

 

[Bletchleyite]

We don't know as it's a secret vote! I would suspect most remainers vote in the EU elections, but there can't be any official figures.

Don't forget that not all of us Remainers are "EU nuts" - some of us recognise significant faults in the EU but simply consider that out of the available options at the present time, remaining is the best.

I would prefer the EU had never progressed beyond a trading bloc i.e. the EEC. However, it has, and there is no turning back the clock.

There is a high chance I would have voted Leave if a Norway or Switzerland-style deal was certain. As it was not, I voted Remain, and the havoc that has occurred in the years since the vote has in my view vindicated that choice.

 

[dosxuk]

Our chance to get anything better off the EU has been blown by parliament / MPs consistently making it clear they would never go for no deal.

Nonsense. Everyone knows no-deal will be bad for everyone. It's not a negotiating tactic.

The much brought up idea of this ruling out no deal being like buying a new car and refusing to rule out buying it from that dealer is wrong. It's more like threatening to set fire to your current car in his lot if he doesn't sell to you. Neither party walk away winning.

Look at yesterday - up until then the EU’s position was very clear, extension for May’s deal or no extension and no deal. The moment when it looked like no deal might just happen, EU have changed their mind slightly. One wonders what we might have got had MPs actively supported May’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” position instead of rubbishing it.

Yesterday was the EU coming to grips with the fact that May won't be in charge for much longer. The lack of retirement for the short extension is there specifically to allow for other ideas to come forward when the deal is inevitably rejected. The EU did not want to be seen to be the ones to force the UK to fall out by accident next Friday. They don't want a no-deal situation to be anything other than at the hands of the UK executive.

No deal is still very much on the table if May drags us there. The EU's unity was cracking last night, but that was more between the "just let them go, we've had enough" and the "we've got to plan for a post-May" groups than any sort of sudden "let's reopen the withdrawal agreement" capitulation.

 

[bramling]

SNP won't be toxic now to remain voters

It might not seem like it, but Brexit/EU isn't the only issue in the world!

The SNP would be unpalatable to many for various reasons - their position on Scottish independence, antipathy towards England, their tax & spend ethos to name just three things which immediately spring to mind. And the Salmond sex scandal breaking just at the right time won't exactly help matters, especially as it seems to have turned into open warfare between Salmond and Sturgeon.

 

[Howardh]

It might not seem like it, but Brexit/EU isn't the only issue in the world!

The SNP would be unpalatable to many for various reasons - their position on Scottish independence, antipathy towards England, their tax & spend ethos to name just three things which immediately spring to mind. And the Salmond sex scandal breaking just at the right time won't exactly help matters, especially as it seems to have turned into open warfare between Salmond and Sturgeon.

I'm English and have antipathy towards England!! Seriously though, we have the "left" screaming to end austerity and replace with "tax and spend" here in England (and the whole of the UK for that matter) - so what's it to be? More austerity or spend a bit of cash on the services we need?
As for open warfare, I offer you Leadsom/Bercow, May/Rest Of The Known Universe...