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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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WelshBluebird

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Not meant as an insult but I am happy enough that you accept it as one.

I was simply explaining the paradox that the majority of young people are left wing whereas the majority of older people are right wing. If some don't change with age what other explanation is there?

It wasn't the point that I have an exception to, it certainly does seem to be the case that happens. My issue is with the language you used.
People do not become Tory voters as they get older because "they mature and learn more about life". To say so, as I said, suggests those who don't vote Tory don't mature or learn anything about life.

What does however happen is as you get older you generally end up owning property (although with this generation and ones to come, that may not be the case anymore, so the Tories may have to start trying to give renters some help to get their votes), you end up with savings etc etc. Things that generally lead someone being more aligned to Tory policies. Nothing at all to do with "maturing" or "learning about life".
 
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Howardh

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Regarding free movement, even the Daily Express (amongst others) is reporting a large number of ex-pats returning home as they can't afford to live in Spain, one of the reasons is their British pension is worth less due to the falling pound (don't think anyone can argue against that) and the uncertainty that Brexit brings (argue your hearts out on that one).

If it's true that ex-pats are returning and are on pensions; 1 - they will require housing and 2 - they will be an added stress on the NHS and other local services and 3 - regardless of any immigration laws, we can't stop them returning, they're British!

I saw this coming even before the vote when I spoke to my MP "the uncertainty will force ex-pats to return home, adding to the stress on services so mitigation any fall in net EU immigration" but being a good old Toy Brexiter, he completely ignored this.

Again, the fall in the pound may be the biggest impact - however what caused that fall and their pensions to become worth less?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1010128/brexit-news-british-expats-spain-sterling-euro-no-deal

THOUSANDS of British expats are heading home from Spain with fears over Brexit and the fall of the pound sparking an exodus.
Figures show the number of Brits living in Bendorm has fallen from around 5,000 before the 2007 financial crash to 2,825 last year.

Almost 5,000 waved adios to Ibiza, Majorca and Menorca over the same period of time and by 2017, 14,981 expats remained on the Balearic islands.

Spanish newspaper El Pais reported the total number of British residents in Spain had dropped from 397,892 to 240,785 – a fall of 157,107.

It said data from Spain's National Statistics Institute showed the number of residents from 15 EU-countries in Spain had fallen by a quarter but the number of British expats had fallen 40 percent.
 

bramling

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Regarding free movement, even the Daily Express (amongst others) is reporting a large number of ex-pats returning home as they can't afford to live in Spain, one of the reasons is their British pension is worth less due to the falling pound (don't think anyone can argue against that) and the uncertainty that Brexit brings (argue your hearts out on that one).

If it's true that ex-pats are returning and are on pensions; 1 - they will require housing and 2 - they will be an added stress on the NHS and other local services and 3 - regardless of any immigration laws, we can't stop them returning, they're British!

I saw this coming even before the vote when I spoke to my MP "the uncertainty will force ex-pats to return home, adding to the stress on services so mitigation any fall in net EU immigration" but being a good old Toy Brexiter, he completely ignored this.

Again, the fall in the pound may be the biggest impact - however what caused that fall and their pensions to become worth less?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1010128/brexit-news-british-expats-spain-sterling-euro-no-deal

There’s quite a difference between a finite number of expats and having a floodgate open to unlimited immigration from 27 countries.
 

bramling

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It wasn't the point that I have an exception to, it certainly does seem to be the case that happens. My issue is with the language you used.
People do not become Tory voters as they get older because "they mature and learn more about life". To say so, as I said, suggests those who don't vote Tory don't mature or learn anything about life.

What does however happen is as you get older you generally end up owning property (although with this generation and ones to come, that may not be the case anymore, so the Tories may have to start trying to give renters some help to get their votes), you end up with savings etc etc. Things that generally lead someone being more aligned to Tory policies. Nothing at all to do with "maturing" or "learning about life".

As well as owning property generally the older one gets the more tax one pays. I’m sure that has an influence on people too.
 

WelshBluebird

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As well as owning property generally the older one gets the more tax one pays. I’m sure that has an influence on people too.

Oh indeed. Doesn't mean they are right though, just that they are looking after their own direct interests.
I am sure if you had a referendum asking if income tax should be cut by half, you'd probably get a majority, doesn't mean it is a good idea though!
As I said elsewhere, I pay a fair amount of tax myself yet am further left than what I was when I was a student not paying any income tax!
 

Howardh

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There’s quite a difference between a finite number of expats and having a floodgate open to unlimited immigration from 27 countries.
You mean that EU floodgate which is diminishing rapidly, or the floodgate that's opening to the rest of the world? You have a point that there's a finite number, but that's in addition to current levels of immigration (which I keep being told are too high) and the EU levels are coming down, but numbers from elsewhere appear to be increasing (and will further increase if all these ex-pats require doctors/nurses/carers etc) so I think we may be plugging the wrong hole.
I see May's in Africa, wonder how many trade deals will include giving out visas? Of course it's "control", but if you have to give out visas in order to gain trade...is that "control"? Not in my book!
But, hey. Not my problem.
 

fowler9

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I think as home ownership has become more unobtainable you will see less and less young people becoming more conservative as they get older. I just mean that I can't see the ranks being replenished as quickly, I'm not saying that every OAP is a rabid Brexiteer.
 

Howardh

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I think as home ownership has become more unobtainable you will see less and less young people becoming more conservative as they get older. I just mean that I can't see the ranks being replenished as quickly, I'm not saying that every OAP is a rabid Brexiteer.
For first time buyers, I suppose it's a matter of what they will put up with - here in Bolton there are flats and apartments available for £30,000 - to buy - whilst they are hardly luxury studios in deepest Chelsea it's a start.
 

furnessvale

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There’s quite a difference between a finite number of expats and having a floodgate open to unlimited immigration from 27 countries.
Not forgetting that returning expats are bringing their disposable incomes and capital back with them. I can't see the Costas being too happy at that loss of income.

As for overloading the NHS, most expats I know jump on the first plane back to the UK for treatment to anything other than the simplest of ailments.
 

SHD

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It doesn't mean that. Come on. Enough with the hyperbole.

No-deal isn't world-ending. It's a complete sh*t sandwich of an outcome and I know of very few people that want it, but the things you've stated won't happen. In spite of the government's utter incompetency and arrogance, our country will continue to function in the event that its negotiators fail to pull their heads out of their rear ends.

Let us just consider the situation for the import and export of radioactive materials.

In case no-deal Brexit happens, how can HMG ensure that the United Kingdom’s nuclear powerplant operators are able to secure their supply of nuclear fuel and maintain their waste treatment logistics running?

How can HMG ensure that British hospitals are provided with 136 Cs and cold sterilisation facilities with 60 Co?
 
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WelshBluebird

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For first time buyers, I suppose it's a matter of what they will put up with - here in Bolton there are flats and apartments available for £30,000 - to buy - whilst they are hardly luxury studios in deepest Chelsea it's a start.

It really does depend on location.
The obvious - Bolton v Bath for example (you'd be lucky to even get a parking space in Bath for £30k!).
But also the not so obvious - younger people are less likely to own a car so good (and reliable) public transport links are more important.
Even the places you don't think of as expensive are getting there, St Pauls in Bristol has become pretty expensive for an area that still has its reputation.
 

AlterEgo

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For first time buyers, I suppose it's a matter of what they will put up with - here in Bolton there are flats and apartments available for £30,000 - to buy - whilst they are hardly luxury studios in deepest Chelsea it's a start.

£30,000, for a flat? As in, that's the actual asking price, and not a student let, or an auction reserve?
 

Howardh

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£30,000, for a flat? As in, that's the actual asking price, and not a student let, or an auction reserve?
Nope, asking price. Think a lot were student flats that never really got used, built last decade for the "University Of Bolton" (I kid you not) but they're there and central to save on transport costs. Not saying every town will have the same, but they're there. Would a student buy a flat for £30k?
Althoug there's the possibility they could be bought up by a landlord to let to students/young workers I suppose.
However - for twice that -
£60k gets you a proper house;
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54465414.html
Great potential terraced house for investors or first time buyers, with close junctions to Blackburn and Bolton. Close to Superstores and Town centre. Master bedroom has plenty of room with a good size 2nd bedroom. Bathroom comes fitted with bath and shower. Kitchen Diner and great back garden space.
I'd have a look even if it needed doing up a bit.
 

Bromley boy

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What does however happen is as you get older you generally end up owning property (although with this generation and ones to come, that may not be the case anymore, so the Tories may have to start trying to give renters some help to get their votes), you end up with savings etc etc. Things that generally lead someone being more aligned to Tory policies. Nothing at all to do with "maturing" or "learning about life".

It’s certainly true that people become conservatives when they realise they have something to conserve, see their earnings being taxed out of their pockets and given away to the feckless and the idle.

People who remain left wing into their dotage are a rarity. They tend to be simple minded, naive sorts who have somehow still had the smarts, luck or (more usually) inheritance to amass enough wealth to insulate them from the realities of life.

Corbyn is an excellent example.

If anything, I have become more left wing since finishing university, getting a "proper" job and paying (a fairly large amount of) tax.

You’ll soon grow out of that phase. Mark my words, you’ll be a Tory within five years :D.
 

Bromley boy

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Nope, asking price. Think a lot were student flats that never really got used, built last decade for the "University Of Bolton" (I kid you not) but they're there and central to save on transport costs. Not saying every town will have the same, but they're there. Would a student buy a flat for £30k?
Althoug there's the possibility they could be bought up by a landlord to let to students/young workers I suppose.
However - for twice that -
£60k gets you a proper house;
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54465414.html
I'd have a look even if it needed doing up a bit.

If that £60k house was on sale down here you wouldn’t get much change from £500k.

For all the jokes we tell about it being “grim oop north”, the joke is really on us! It’s a rat race down south and you guys enjoy a far higher standard of living.
 

AlterEgo

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Nope, asking price. Think a lot were student flats that never really got used, built last decade for the "University Of Bolton" (I kid you not) but they're there and central to save on transport costs. Not saying every town will have the same, but they're there. Would a student buy a flat for £30k?
Althoug there's the possibility they could be bought up by a landlord to let to students/young workers I suppose.

Strongly suspect whatever you've seen for £30k isn't available to first time buyers and is an investment property for student lets. I can't find anything on Rightmove for £30k that is a flat available, at the asking price, for a first time buyer.

Your link to the "£60k house" is for sale by auction and will go for a fair bit more than that. The reserve price is undisclosed; the price listing on Rightmove is not even indicative of the value but rather there to give it visibility.
 

WelshBluebird

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Nope, asking price. Think a lot were student flats that never really got used, built last decade for the "University Of Bolton" (I kid you not) but they're there and central to save on transport costs. Not saying every town will have the same, but they're there. Would a student buy a flat for £30k?
Althoug there's the possibility they could be bought up by a landlord to let to students/young workers I suppose.
However - for twice that -
£60k gets you a proper house;
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54465414.html
I'd have a look even if it needed doing up a bit.

Of course, that is an auction so I would assume it would actually go for more.
But it still shows the difference area can make. My parents old house in South Wales sold for £60k about 7 years ago and that needed a hell of a lot of work done to it (ie total gutting and starting anew). Not sure on prices there now mind you.

It’s certainly true that people become conservatives when they realise they have something to conserve, see their earnings being taxed out of their pockets and given away to the feckless and the idle.

Or, more accurately, used to fund public services.
We have seen what happens when you cut public funding - councils either going or about to go bankrupt, having to cut services to the legal minimum, waste collections less frequent, bus routes axed (or made useless by being so infrequent), massive issues with care for the elderly and disabled, not enough police officers (and those that exist having to go further than they used to when arresting people as custody centres in many places have been cut), libraries closed etc etc.

That was more my point when I jokingly said about an income tax referendum - out of context yeah tax seems like a bad thing. But when you actually look at where the majority of it goes, many people would struggling to actually find the amount of savings they want their tax cut by! Sure benefits fraud and money being wasted is a thing, but in the grand scheme of things we are talking about small fish in the much larger pond of government spending. The real big money pots are the NHS (but you certainly won't get the majority of people wanting that to come off the government books), pensions (again good luck considering pensioners are pretty much guaranteed to vote anyone out who hits them in their pockets), education, policing, and other things that people actually do want the government to pay for.

People who remain left wing into their dotage are a rarity. They tend to be simple minded, naive sorts who have somehow still had the smarts, luck or (more usually) inheritance to amass enough wealth to insulate them from the realities of life.

Corbyn is an excellent example.

I do find it kind of ironic and a bit sad that if you are lucky to be born rich, or are lucky / hard working enough to get rich, that somehow that means you can't still be left wing.
There is nothing with holding onto your beliefs despite wealth, hell I'd say it is better than abandoning your beliefs because of money!

You’ll soon grow out of that phase. Mark my words, you’ll be a Tory within five years :D.

I had people tell me that when I started working part time jobs before and during university. I also had people tell me that when I started working full time after university 6 years ago. I also had people tell me that a couple of years ago when I started earning more and paying a fairly high amount of tax compared to most of the people I know my age. Still hasn't happened yet!

Strongly suspect whatever you've seen for £30k isn't available to first time buyers and is an investment property for student lets. I can't find anything on Rightmove for £30k that is a flat available, at the asking price, for a first time buyer.visibility.

That is one thing I've noticed - a lot of stuff that is available isn't available for a first time buyer.
Either over 55 / 60's, cash only, investors only, shared ownership (which isn't a bad thing itself, but is a different kettle of fish totally), auctions etc. It takes a bit of whittling down to get to ones actually available for first time buyers, and that often takes out a lot of the cheaper properties that people like to use as examples to say there isn't a problem with house prices.
 
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Bromley boy

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The real big money pots are the NHS (but you certainly won't get the majority of people wanting that to come off the government books), pensions (again good luck considering pensioners are pretty much guaranteed to vote anyone out who hits them in their pockets), education, policing, and other things that people actually do want the government to pay for.

Trouble is most of those are prone to profligate wasteage of taxpayers’ money.

There is nothing with holding onto your beliefs despite wealth, hell I'd say it is better than abandoning your beliefs because of money!

I agree with you there - although I also think the version of conservatism I was brought up with (rugged individualism, thrift, hard work, bettering yourself against the odds) aspires to much the same goals as the left.

It just goes about achieving them rather differently.
 

bramling

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I think as home ownership has become more unobtainable you will see less and less young people becoming more conservative as they get older. I just mean that I can't see the ranks being replenished as quickly, I'm not saying that every OAP is a rabid Brexiteer.

I seem to remember Portillo making the point on tv that the Conservatives really *need* to boost home ownership as that is one of the things that is likely to being them electoral success.

I suspect this is one reason London has swung away from the Conservatives over the last couple of decades. An exodus of Europeans out of London really won’t go amiss in reducing the rate at which house prices have been climbing.
 
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bramling

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Oh indeed. Doesn't mean they are right though, just that they are looking after their own direct interests.
I am sure if you had a referendum asking if income tax should be cut by half, you'd probably get a majority, doesn't mean it is a good idea though!
As I said elsewhere, I pay a fair amount of tax myself yet am further left than what I was when I was a student not paying any income tax!

You’re no doubt spot on about the referendum result.

Speaking personally, I don’t really begrudge paying tax as I recognise it’s a necessary part of life. What I *do* strongly begrudge is paying tax to subsidise the lifestyles of others in terms of both welfare payments and housing subsidy (in both cases excepting cases where people are genuinely disabled), disproportionately subsidising other parts of the U.K. especially Scotland, and paying vast sums to prop up the EU budget - albeit hopefully not for much longer.
 

northwichcat

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An exodus of Europeans out of London really won’t go amiss in reducing the rate at which house prices have been climbing.

Brexit does not guarantee that, especially considering there are many Britons living in Europe who have no desire to be forced to move back to the UK. It's reasonable to presume to allow the 500,000 Britons living in France and Spain to remain there the French (who make up a large part of the Europeans living in London) are going nowhere.
 

bramling

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I'll expand on my reasoning:

  • I think the Lib Dems will soon cease to exist and have essentially been a dead party since they reneged on some key policies upon entering coalition with the Conservatives. This stunt they're pulling about potentially installing a non-MP as leader is a desperate attempt to remain relevant and interesting in a country where they're now an insignificance. I'm a passionate pro-European but I couldn't bring myself to vote for the Lib Dems during the last election and there's a very sizeable chunk of the electorate who will have thought similarly.
  • In addition, the Lib Dems didn't stand on a proper anti-Brexit ticket - they just promised a second referendum. If they'd stood on cancelling Brexit altogether they'd have won a huge number of votes including my own. The fact they didn't do this showed they had embarrassingly weak leadership and were unable to spot opportunities. For me that makes them unsuitable for power and again, a very large number of voters will have felt similar.
  • Both the Conservatives and Labour are on the verge of civil war and for the first time in my lifetime it's a possibility that one or both parties could actually split. The pro-Europeans in the Conservatives and the centrists within Labour have far more in common with one another than they do with their respective leaderships - this provides an opening for them to work together unless their respective leaderships change to positions closer to their own. Some big ifs in there but nothing too far fetched.
  • The Labour membership has been overrun by the hard-left and the youth and that means Corbyn will remain in post for the foreseeable future. Despite his claims before the referendum, he is in reality a Brexiter and will resist all attempts to move Labour to a pro-EU position however the youth in the party who he relies on for support may push him to a point where he needs to concede in order to keep them on board.
  • If Corbyn doesn't change his position before c.2020 he stands a risk of seeing his most pro-EU MPs resign from the party - this Labour splinter group would most likely be lead by Chuka Ummuna and whilst I can't see them forming a new party immediately they'd continue in Westminster as independents.
  • It's almost a certainty that May will be replaced as Conservative leader before the next election, she'll see out the Brexit negotiations and then be replaced to give her replacement around a year to settle in before the 2022 election. As unlikely as it may seem now I think that this individual could be a pro-European because I suspect the polls will be start to switch towards a pro-EU position within the electorate, partly for the reasons outlined in my previous post but also because of the disillusion caused by the fact that Brexit is taking up the majority of parliamentary time and many will want to see day to day governance restored.
  • I understand that there are a significant number of Eurosceptics within the Conservative parliamentary party and certainly within the overall membership however the moderate Eurosceptics wouldn't break rank even if a pro-European took over the leadership. That's because they'd do anything necessary to prevent a Corbyn-lead Labour taking power. The hard-line Eurosceptics would leave the party though - probably to join a resurgent UKIP.
  • On the flip side, if a hard-line Brexiter such as Johnson or Rees-Mogg replaces May then you'll likely see the pro-EU Tories leave the party in a similar fashion to the Labour splinter group I mentioned earlier... sitting as independents before starting discussions with Labour centrists and the runt of the Lib Dems about starting a new party.
  • If that new party consisting of pro-EU Tories and Labour centrists did form before the 2022 election and stood on a cancelling Brexit ticket (not a second referendum but a complete cancellation) it's unlikely they'd win the election outright but it is likely they'd gain enough seats to hold the balance of power. They could then negotiate a coalition with either of the two main parties on the condition of a second referendum which using the analysis from my previous post would likely result in pro-EU victory.
Now, there are a HUGE amount of assumptions and hypotheticals in my reasoning above but nothing outlandish. I could end up being completely wrong in my forecast or some of it may happen and other parts of it not, but one things for sure and that's that there's going to lots of turbulence for a long time yet. A week is a long time in politics never mind four years! :lol:

I also agree with @bramling in the sense that there's a lack of real talent in both major parties at the moment and that is very concerning indeed.

But you two are both Brexiters and you've ignored the question in my previous post - what are your views on how we solve the issues at the Irish border and at/around our ports?

I’d just have a proper border between the two parts of Ireland. With a situation where one side of the border has free movement (both goods and people) and the other doesn’t then some kind of border is inevitable. The two parts of Ireland are where they are - one side has chosen to be part of the EU, and the other apparently wishes to be part of the UK and the U.K. has chosen to leave the EU.

As for ports, surely it’s a case of building the necessary infrastructure? We’ve had two years to crack on with that. It’s no different to the customs and immigration checks carried out with movements to and from other parts of the world.
 

WelshBluebird

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Trouble is most of those are prone to profligate wasteage of taxpayers’ money.

Based on that fact that in many of those areas we are having to see real service level cuts because of government cuts, I'd like to know where these savings can be made!

I agree with you there - although I also think the version of conservatism I was brought up with (rugged individualism, thrift, hard work, bettering yourself against the odds) aspires to much the same goals as the left.

It just goes about achieving them rather differently.

The way I see it, generally (and I accept this a huge huge broad brush to tar people with), is that those on the right seem to thing that those things guarantee success so anyone who cannot support themselves deserves it. Whereas those on the left think that you can be the most hard working person on the planet, that doesn't guarantee success as so much is based on things you cannot control (where you live, where you were born, who you were born to, etc). As I said, I realise that is a massive generalisation and simplification, but certainly that is the impression I get in "real life" when talking about such issues to people I know.

Actually this kind of crosses into generation based issues too. The number of older people I know who have made comments such as "when are you going to buy yourself a house" or "I bought my own house when I was your age" or "why are you throwing away money renting" and then come back with "work harder" when house prices compared to salaries are mentioned. The assumption for a lot of the country still seems to be work hard and you'll be able to get yourself a house in your 20's, when for many people in large parts of the country, that just is not at all realistic anymore. Out of the people I know my age, the only ones who have bought either have bought as a couple where both are earning very good wages, bought with a massive deposit from mum / dad, or are people from back home in the valleys who just never moved away.

I seem to remember Portillo making the point on tv that the Conservatives really *need* to boost home ownership as that is one of the things that is likely to being them electoral success.

That is the real reason for right to buy isn't it? Sure it gives people who may not be able to otherwise the chance at owning their own property, but ultimately it was an attempt to change Labour voting council housing tenants into Tory voting homeowners.
 
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Howardh

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If that £60k house was on sale down here you wouldn’t get much change from £500k.

For all the jokes we tell about it being “grim oop north”, the joke is really on us! It’s a rat race down south and you guys enjoy a far higher standard of living.
It's all relative of course. In London the transport infrastructure knocks spots off here, but London is a long way from any half-decent remote countryside (even Bolton has it's own Mountain Rescue Unit, the moors might be on the edge of a conurbation but can be very remote and deadly if you get lost) so it's swings and roundabouts.
What I never understand is why those in the south, on retirement, continue to struggle while if they sold their house they could get the same for half the price in a really nice area and be comfortable for ever off the remainder...and free up a house down there.
 

bramling

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That is the real reason for right to buy isn't it? Sure it gives people who may not be able to otherwise the chance at owning their own property, but ultimately it was an attempt to change Labour voting council housing tenants into Tory voting homeowners.

Don’t doubt it was a factor, however it also removed a liability from the taxpayer, and gave the new homeowners the freedom to sell and move to somewhere and something of their own choice - both decent objectives in my view.

At the time it was a *very* popular policy, particularly in some of the new towns in the south-east.
 

bramling

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It's all relative of course. In London the transport infrastructure knocks spots off here, but London is a long way from any half-decent remote countryside (even Bolton has it's own Mountain Rescue Unit, the moors might be on the edge of a conurbation but can be very remote and deadly if you get lost) so it's swings and roundabouts.
What I never understand is why those in the south, on retirement, continue to struggle while if they sold their house they could get the same for half the price in a really nice area and be comfortable for ever off the remainder...and free up a house down there.

Family ties? Not wanting the stress and hassle of a move?

Also those at retirement age now are in many cases likely to live somewhere relatively decent. In my road even as recently as the late 1990s it was possible to buy a 6-bed Edwardian semi for £150k. The self-same houses now go for well over a million, with a queue of people lined up to snap up within minutes of going on the market - in many cases ex Londoners wanting out of London for many reasons, largely that they can’t get anything there in a nice area with the desired amount of space.

In turn this is causing housing issues throughout the south-east, which simply doesn’t have the space for widespread housebuilding, nor the space for the infrastructure to serve denser population. Which brings us nearly back to the EU and freedom of movement.
 

bramling

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ERM?
Black Monday?
Black Wednesday?
3m unemployed?
1981 riots?
2011 riots?

And that's just off the top of my head.

And it’s interesting to observe that the 1981 and 2011 riots came just after many years of Labour government.

I didn’t say that right-wing governments always get things right, but the idea that left wing governments are inherently less damaging than right wing ones is, in my view, nonsense.

As for the ERM, another disaster brought to us thanks to Europe, and another John Major fiasco. It’s interesting how John Major and Tony Blair, both staunchly pro European, are amongst the most discredited politicians of my generation!
 
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