EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[telstarbox]

That would be the same The Thick of It which was written specifically about contemporary UK politics?

 

[nlogax]

That would be the same The Thick of It which was written specifically about contemporary UK politics?

The same Thick of It which Armando Iannucci won't return to because our current politics are just too vile to contemplate parodying.

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-...-cameron-veep-in-the-loop-peter-a7076831.html

""Every time a stupid political event happens... people write to me and suggest I bring back The Thick of It," he writes: "No. Absolutely not. I now find the political landscape so alien and awful that it’s hard to match the waves of cynicism it transmits on its own.""

 

[NSEFAN]

""Every time a stupid political event happens... people write to me and suggest I bring back The Thick of It," he writes: "No. Absolutely not. I now find the political landscape so alien and awful that it’s hard to match the waves of cynicism it transmits on its own.""

A bit like spitting image: you'd have no material because all the best gags seem to be happening in real life! Mind you, I haven't seen Theresa May and the Cabinet break out in song yet...

 

[Howardh]

A bit like spitting image: you'd have no material because all the best gags seem to be happening in real life! Mind you, I haven't seen Theresa May and the Cabinet break out in song yet...

That Raab is uncannily like Alan B'stard. In fact I'm not sure which is which....

 

[Giugiaro]

I prefer the option you have missed, a booming UK economy NOT paying into the EU.

People seem to be missing this option quite frequently.

 

[Puffing Devil]

People seem to be missing this option quite frequently.

It's an option. Unfortunately, nobody has been able to provide any evidence to show where this boom will be coming from, once we close the door on our free trade deal with the closest trading block. If you have any projections to back up your assertion there are plenty of posters on here who would love to see them.

 

[birchesgreen]

The government would probably love to see it too!

 

[Giugiaro]

For me is more a question of democracy. Paying membership fees to the EU and abiding to its laws without having a say or nothing in return?
If someone called staying in the EU a "Brussels Dictatorship", what do they have to say about the current deal!?

Honestly, between a half-arsed Soft Brexit and a proper Hard Brexit, I'd prefer the later.
The deal being discussed is undemocratic and an affront to British and European democratic values and the spirit behind the Brexit vote.
I'm ashamed that the EU commission is even allowing such an atrocity!

 

[birchesgreen]

I'd prefer an outcome that doesn't threaten mine and thousands of other people's livelihoods and risk civil unrest myself but thats just me

 

[47802]

I'd prefer an outcome that doesn't threaten mine and thousands of other people's livelihoods and risk civil unrest myself but thats just me

Well quite, as it is I expect quite a lot of service jobs will be going down the pan as they don't appear to be seeking a deal on that, and if we get Hard Brexit then that will be most of our foreign owned manufacturing disappearing, like Airbus, Car Manufacturers and many more plus UK based parts suppliers etc but never mind there may be more jobs available at your local Hand Car Wash, assuming the car owners haven't been made redundant.

 

[Puffing Devil]

For me is more a question of democracy. Paying membership fees to the EU and abiding to its laws without having a say or nothing in return?
If someone called staying in the EU a "Brussels Dictatorship", what do they have to say about the current deal!?

Honestly, between a half-arsed Soft Brexit and a proper Hard Brexit, I'd prefer the later.
The deal being discussed is undemocratic and an affront to British and European democratic values and the spirit behind the Brexit vote.
I'm ashamed that the EU commission is even allowing such an atrocity!

As someone whose location is in Portugal, I'm assuming you're either a British ex-pat or a Portuguese national? I'm wondering how any Brexit will affect you?

For the rest of your post we have rehashed the argument time and time again: we do have representation in the EU through the appointment of the commission and our MEPs.

Have you any idea of the impact on the economy and many people's lives and livelihoods of a hard brexit. Have a look at the recent EU white paper urging member states to plan for a hard Brexit and think of the implications for the UK. Remember, the UK is a small percentage of the overall EU trade and an unfortunate loss. However, EU trade is a massive part of the UK economy which we can't afford to lose.

And how are you getting along with the projections for a booming economy which you suggested was an option?

That's a lot of boom required to replace the lost EU trade.

 

[HSTEd]

In the long run the lost EU related activity will be swamped by the overall economic growth trend.

It would be a lost decade, but we've just had one of those and there is no end in sight to it anyway.

 

[Bromley boy]

For the rest of your post we have rehashed the argument time and time again: we do have representation in the EU through the appointment of the commission and our MEPs.

And we have established time and time again that “representation” is remote and lacks any real ability to change the EU’s direction of travel. Commissioners are appointed by governments and are faceless and the “Parliament” only debates legislation originated by the commissioners.

Have you any idea of the impact on the economy and many people's lives and livelihoods of a hard brexit. Have a look at the recent EU white paper urging member states to plan for a hard Brexit and think of the implications for the UK. Remember, the UK is a small percentage of the overall EU trade and an unfortunate loss. However, EU trade is a massive part of the UK economy which we can't afford to lose.

The EU isn’t all equal. Certain areas will be hit harder than others - it isn’t a case of U.K. v 27 member states who will all be affected equally.

What the U.K. government should have been doing is preparing for a possible no deal exit into WTO rules as a back stop position, and robustly negotiating our exit from the understanding that any “divorce payment”* was conditional on reaching acceptable terms.

*the enormous financial contribution made by the U.K. is a major trump card that has been squandered, in my view.

 

[Puffing Devil]

And we have established time and time again that “representation” is remote and lacks any real ability to change the EU’s direction of travel. Commissioners are appointed by governments and are faceless and the “Parliament” only debates legislation originated by the commissioners.

We agree that we have representation. The perceived effectiveness of that representation is a subject for debate and will be coloured by your views on the aims and objectives of the EU and the benefits of the UK Membership.

The EU isn’t all equal. Certain areas will be hit harder than others - it isn’t a case of U.K. v 27 member states who will all be affected equally.

Indeed - Germany has the most to lose, though it is in proportion to the amount of trade it does with the whole UK. More worrying is our trade with Ireland - one of the five countries with which we have a positive trading account.

What the U.K. government should have been doing is preparing for a possible no deal exit into WTO rules as a back stop position, and robustly negotiating our exit from the understanding that any “divorce payment”* was conditional on reaching acceptable terms.
*the enormous financial contribution made by the U.K. is a major trump card that has been squandered, in my view.

I think we can both agree that the government approach to the whole negotiation has been a complete clusterf*ck. That the lazy, incompetent Davies has lasted this long and is only out of a role because he resigned is a complete mystery to me.

 

[Puffing Devil]

In the long run the lost EU related activity will be swamped by the overall economic growth trend.

It would be a lost decade, but we've just had one of those and there is no end in sight to it anyway.

Where is this growth coming from? Just one concrete example, please?

 

[HSTEd]

Where is this growth coming from? Just one concrete example, please?

The general improvements in technology that occur over time?
Where do you think the bulk of economic growth since the dawn of the industrial revolution has come from?

 

[Groningen]

Well even on your side of the border there will be extra borderpersonel necessary to clear the goods going into the UK.

 

[Howardh]

Well even on your side of the border there will be extra borderpersonel necessary to clear the goods going into the UK.

Could end up where goods flow cheaply unchecked but people will require Visas, ETIAS's, fingerprinting, profiling and goodness knows what else.
So if you are an undesirable wanting to enter the UK just post yourself in a box and get someone to shove you in the back of a lorry! Although an EU won't need to do that, they wil happily be allowed into Ireland and then they can cross the border there.

 

[Bromley boy]

We agree that we have representation. The perceived effectiveness of that representation is a subject for debate and will be coloured by your views on the aims and objectives of the EU and the benefits of the UK Membership.

Trouble is that representation is considered woefully inadequate, undemocratic, unaccountable by many leave voters.

Simply saying “we have representation” is no answer to concerns that the representation is ineffective, and concerns about the wider body is is representing us in!

Indeed - Germany has the most to lose, though it is in proportion to the amount of trade it does with the whole UK. More worrying is our trade with Ireland - one of the five countries with which we have a positive trading account.

Probably true.

I think we can both agree that the government approach to the whole negotiation has been a complete clusterf*ck. That the lazy, incompetent Davies has lasted this long and is only out of a role because he resigned is a complete mystery to me.

Absolutely.

I wonder if someone like Sajid Javid would have done a better job. Come to think of it, he’d probably make a better PM.

 

[Puffing Devil]

The general improvements in technology that occur over time?
Where do you think the bulk of economic growth since the dawn of the industrial revolution has come from?

That is speculation, not a concrete answer.

Economic growth has been driven by a number of factors, to simply say that it's technology is simplistic.

Question: Where specifically do you see growth occurring in the UK in the next five years?

Bonus Question: How will this growth cover the loss of trade from the EU if we fall back on WTO agreements and have no passporting for financial services?

 

[HSTEd]

That is speculation, not a concrete answer.

Economic growth has been driven by a number of factors, to simply say that it's technology is simplistic.

It is far more realistic than to say that free trade is the be all and end all of economic growth.

Almost every country in the world tends to see positive economic growth on average despite a wide spread in conditions and government policies - the only thing common to all of them is improving technology and build up of useful infrastructure.

Question: Where specifically do you see growth occurring in the UK in the next five years?

Five years is not a reasonable timeframe - and regarding that is a reasonable horizon is rather extreme short-termism, which is one of the reasons we are in this mess.
50 years more like.

This is a 900 year old state, we are talking decadal if not century-length timescales here.

Bonus Question: How will this growth cover the loss of trade from the EU if we fall back on WTO agreements and have no passporting for financial services?

The initial shock will be overcome and the economy will eventually shift to trade with other people, or to simply be less dependent on international trade.
In either case over reasonable timescales the economic growth trend is almost certainly going to continue, this is merely going to be a kink in the line.

EDIT:
I would say that outside the first year or two, loss of EU trade would not even be the UK's biggest macroeconomic problem.
A lot of the establishment does however have a vested interest in portraying it differently, largely to distract people from the other macroeconomic problems we have - most of which they caused.

 

[Giugiaro]

As someone whose location is in Portugal, I'm assuming you're either a British ex-pat or a Portuguese national? I'm wondering how any Brexit will affect you?

For the rest of your post we have rehashed the argument time and time again: we do have representation in the EU through the appointment of the commission and our MEPs.

I was trying to get some updates on the current negotiations and I guess I was kind of successful.

Still, I wasn't really talking about the economic side of the deal but more the democratic part. And from your comment, the UK will still have MEP's and a position in the commission.
For this I have a question. What's different from how things stood before the vote? I'm getting confused...

 

[AM9]

The general improvements in technology that occur over time?

Well the general improvements in technology that occurs over time will benefit all nations of similar industrial development equally, so we will start from our current low base and the equivalent countries in the EU will stay ahead. What a good plan for extending our nadir in the economic cycle.

Where do you think the bulk of economic growth since the dawn of the industrial revolution has come from?

The bulk of our growth since the dawn of the industrial revolution has come from:

a) being the first to employ industrial methods
and
b) having a vast array of vassal colonies to supply raw materials and where appropriate, cheap labour to feed the industrial appetite.​

Neither of those attributes are 'gifted' to the UK in the modern world, fortunately.

 

[HSTEd]

Well the general improvements in technology that occurs over time will benefit all nations of similar industrial development equally, so we will start from our current low base and the equivalent countries in the EU will stay ahead. What a good plan for extending our nadir in the economic cycle.

Being slightly behind where we would have been is hardly the disaster people are claiming around here.

The bulk of our growth since the dawn of the industrial revolution has come from:

a) being the first to employ industrial methods​

So the UK is the only country to experience substantial growth since the industrial revolution?
Being first helps a bit but actually is less efficient than being second.
As China is demonstrating.

and
b) having a vast array of vassal colonies to supply raw materials and where appropriate, cheap labour to feed the industrial appetite.

So countries that had no vassal colonies never underwent major industrialisation and economic growth?

Neither of those attributes are 'gifted' to the UK in the modern world, fortunately.

Perhaps, but we also have major negatives associated with the UK in the modern world - difficulties that (largely) cannot be undone whilst we remain in the EU.

 

[AM9]

Being slightly behind where we would have been is hardly the disaster people are claiming around here.

But it is a disadvantage which will need sacrifices elsewhere. If we stay virtually as we are, the difference will not be increased in what "would be a lost decade"

So the UK is the only country to experience substantial growth since the industrial revolution?

I didn't say that it was. Read what I said, and then look back to which of your posts that I was responding to.

So countries that had no vassal colonies never underwent major industrialisation and economic growth?

Yes they did which means that our growth during the IR wasn't as impressive as some here might pretend.

Perhaps, but we also have major negatives associated with the UK in the modern world - difficulties that (largely) cannot be undone whilst we remain in the EU.

That is your opinion.

 

[HSTEd]

But it is a disadvantage which will need sacrifices elsewhere. If we stay virtually as we are, the difference will not be increased in what "would be a lost decade"

Sacrifices of a few percent of GDP is not that big considering we've done that repeatedly in the past. It is certainly not the mad max esque disaster many are predicting.

I didn't say that it was. Read what I said, and then look back to which of your posts that I was responding to.

Implying that bulk of the UK economic growth was due to being first implies that only the UK would expect to see such growth, which is clearly not the case.
Improving technology in terms of steam engines caused a chain reaction through the rest of the economy.
But it was improving technology that made it possible.

Yes they did which means that our growth during the IR wasn't as impressive as some here might pretend.

Nope, it's about as impressive as we would expect for an industrialising economy.

That is your opinion.

Yes, but that is because I don't believe in the supposed Thatcherite miracle that the EU continues to espouse, but that is just me.

 

[Senex]

Sacrifices of a few percent of GDP is not that big considering we've done that repeatedly in the past. It is certainly not the mad max esque disaster many are predicting.

So if GDP actually falls by a few per cent, where are the huge amounts of extra money we are told the NHS must have to come from? And extra money for the military that the nationalistic Brexit brigade wants, and the money for the Galileo replacement, our own medicines agency, &c, &c?

Or are all sacrifices justified as long as we come back under the total and absolute control of the absurd and undemocratic "Mother of Parliaments"?

 

[EM2]

https://www.ft.com/content/9f494eea-8b77-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

Britain steps up doomsday planning for no-deal Brexit

This includes closing the M26 to be used as a lorry park, and companies stockpiling food and medicines

It's not possible to copy information from the article, due to T&Cs on the FT website, and the lack of formatting which results if those T&Cs are ignored.

 

[HSTEd]

So if GDP actually falls by a few per cent, where are the huge amounts of extra money we are told the NHS must have to come from? And extra money for the military that the nationalistic Brexit brigade wants, and the money for the Galileo replacement, our own medicines agency, &c, &c?

GDP will fall by a few percent, and that will be made good by normal economic growth within a few years.
The additional costs of Galileo replacement, the medicines agency and such are negligible compared to the size of the economy and do not represent a substantial loss.
Galileo especially is likely the price that must be paid for an independent foreign policy.

Or are all sacrifices justified as long as we come back under the total and absolute control of the absurd and undemocratic "Mother of Parliaments"?

Some sacrifices are clearly justified otherwise all policies would be set solely to optimise GDP growth, but that is not a world I would want to live in.

The EU is designed specifically to make it almost impossible to change course, and given the Thatcherites have been in the ascendency in the EU for the last decade or two they have managed to lock in Thatcherite policies forever (QMV means that left wing governments must simultaneously control almost all EU states in order for any reforms to occur).
If you want to reverse those policies it is essentially inevitable that a country must leave the EU.

 

[EM2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06f65yq
Whitehall chief warning about no-deal Brexit

One of Whitehall's most senior officials has warned of potentially "horrendous consequences" of a no-deal Brexit -- if co-operation with the EU breaks down completely.

The chief executive of the Civil Service, John Manzoni, told MPs that Britain would be ready -- but not everything would be perfect.

He was giving evidence to the Public Administration Committee alongside Sir Mark Sedwill, the acting Cabinet Secretary.

Robin Edwards reports.

You can hear more from Today in Parliamen at 11.30pm on Radio 4.