EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[mmh]

Don't forget NI was pretty convincingly Remain.

No it wasn't. As ever, the NI vote was convincingly along a republican/unionist divide.

 

[AlterEgo]

No it wasn't. As ever, the NI vote was convincingly along a republican/unionist divide.

It wasn’t by any means a vote along sectarian lines. There were a significant number of unionists voting Remain.

 

[mmh]

It wasn’t by any means a vote along sectarian lines. There were a significant number of unionists voting Remain.

I didn't use the word sectarian, why have you? Northern Ireland was the only region where the vote was counted using the Westminster constituency boundaries, and if I remember correctly with the exception of a Londonderry constituency and a Belfast constituency every DUP held constituency voted to leave, and every Sinn Fein held constituency voted to remain.

 

[AlterEgo]

I didn't use the word sectarian, why have you? Northern Ireland was the only region where the vote was counted using the Westminster constituency boundaries, and if I remember correctly with the exception of a Londonderry constituency and a Belfast constituency every DUP held constituency voted to leave, and every Sinn Fein held constituency voted to remain.

Because party voting in Northern Ireland, like opinions on constitutional politics there, traditionally runs across sectarian lines. This is an inescapable truth.

You also haven’t accounted for the fact the UUP offered a free vote on conscience to all their representatives. It’s really quite inaccurate to suggest voting was along a unionist/republican divide, as there were a lot of unionists who voted Remain. If there hadn’t been, you’d have got nowhere near the majority Remain total that transpired. Mostly, these unionists lived in border areas, were rural, and middle class.

It’s not as simple as saying that unionists voted leave and republicans voted remain.

 

[Tetchytyke]

No it wasn't.

56% remain.

52% is good enough to be "The will of the people"

I remember correctly with the exception of a Londonderry constituency and a Belfast constituency every DUP held constituency voted to leave

Irrelevant, as the referendum was not FPTP. The overall vote is what counts. The minority votes in those constituencies also count.

And that vote was, overall, overwhelmingly remain.

 

[Tetchytyke]

There is increasing integration, but the balance is still enormously in favour of the UK

However, as your link notes, there's no way of accounting for cross-border supply chains, which will be a significant issue for business on both sides of the border.

What a mess. It might get fixed, but why create it in the first place?

 

[northwichcat]

27 seats out of 90 is almost a majority? [2017 election]

Just looking at the results:

Sinn Fein + SDLP working together would be 7 seats short of a majority
DUP + UUP working together would be 8 seats short of a majority

The former would be worrying for the DUP and other unionist parties if another election was called.

 

[nidave]

As soon as westminister no longer needs the DUP then see what happens - its going to be interesting times.

 

[HSTEd]

Just looking at the results:

Sinn Fein + SDLP working together would be 7 seats short of a majority
DUP + UUP working together would be 8 seats short of a majority

The former would be worrying for the DUP and other unionist parties if another election was called.

It would be DUP + UUP + TUV however. And I think we will see a move towards an electoral alliance between all Unionist parties in the future, precisely to prevent this.

 

[northwichcat]

It would be DUP + UUP + TUV however. And I think we will see a move towards an electoral alliance between all Unionist parties in the future, precisely to prevent this.

TUV only have 1 seat currently, so a pro-republican coalition is as close as a pro-unionist coalition, plus a three party coalition, in theory, is harder to form than a two party one.

 

[HSTEd]

TUV only have 1 seat currently, so a pro-republican coalition is as close as a pro-unionist coalition, plus a three party coalition, in theory, is harder to form than a two party one.

It is unlikely it will be a coalition, it is more likely that the parties will combien into a single unionist name and stand only one list of candidates.
At which point TUV is good for another two and a half to three seats, rather than one, and you will get half a dozen seats from the UUP

 

[AlterEgo]

TUV only have 1 seat currently, so a pro-republican coalition is as close as a pro-unionist coalition, plus a three party coalition, in theory, is harder to form than a two party one.

There is almost no chance of a republican/nationalist coalition.

 

[najaB]

There is almost no chance of a republican/nationalist coalition.

What kind of defeatist, negative talk is that? Next you'll be saying that there's no such thing as unicorns.

 

[Tetchytyke]

There is almost no chance of a republican/nationalist coalition.

Course not, Sinn Fein and the SDLP really don't like each other.

But if there's a sniff of a referendum on unification...

 

[Busaholic]

I've heard of Protestant and other non-Catholic nationalists, particularly in the SDLP, but are there/ have there ever been any Roman Catholics prepared to come out and support any unionist party? I can't see that could be true of the DUP, but the Ulster Unionists when they still had some influence?

 

[AlterEgo]

I've heard of Protestant and other non-Catholic nationalists, particularly in the SDLP, but are there/ have there ever been any Roman Catholics prepared to come out and support any unionist party? I can't see that could be true of the DUP, but the Ulster Unionists when they still had some influence?

There are a small number of Catholic unionists for a variety of reasons.

 

[HSTEd]

I've heard of Protestant and other non-Catholic nationalists, particularly in the SDLP, but are there/ have there ever been any Roman Catholics prepared to come out and support any unionist party? I can't see that could be true of the DUP, but the Ulster Unionists when they still had some influence?

Polling has previously suggested that unionist catholics are far more common than protestant nationalists.

 

[Howardh]

Notice in the Independent that, to ready themselves for (a) Brexit and (b) the Olympics, Paris's Eurostar terminal is baing rebuilt and will cater for British and non-EU's entering having to use ETIAS (or similar) documentation in seperate (and no doubt lengthy) queues. Brussels will probably have to do the same. Of course today you have your passports checked at the departing end so you just walk off the train and away. Looks like all that will change.

Welcome to the Brave New World. I do hope we get another chance to vote this nonsense down.

 

[najaB]

Welcome to the Brave New World. I do hope we get another chance to vote this nonsense down.

Sadly, I doubt that will be the case. If we get another vote it will be on the flavour of Brexit only (i.e. "This deal or no deal?")

 

[Howardh]

Sadly, I doubt that will be the case. If we get another vote it will be on the flavour of Brexit only (i.e. "This deal or no deal?")

That looks the way it's going - voting for the deal (if the EU accepts it more or less in it's current form) opens up yet another can of frogs if we don't accept it.

If we don't accept - does that mean we want a WTO Brexit - or to remain fully in the EU? That might have to be a further option (as suggested by Greening to some extent) which would put voters in a quandry - say we mostly like the deal but not happy with certain parts of it; would we go with it, or risk turning it down and have it followed up by something we might feel is much worse (either way)?

What a mess. If parliament can't come up with the answer...what chance us??

 

[47802]

Notice in the Independent that, to ready themselves for (a) Brexit and (b) the Olympics, Paris's Eurostar terminal is baing rebuilt and will cater for British and non-EU's entering having to use ETIAS (or similar) documentation in seperate (and no doubt lengthy) queues. Brussels will probably have to do the same. Of course today you have your passports checked at the departing end so you just walk off the train and away. Looks like all that will change.
Justine Greening
Welcome to the Brave New World. I do hope we get another chance to vote this nonsense down.

Well Justine Greening call for a second referendum this morning based on vote for, Hard Brexit, Staying in the EU, or something along the lines of the Prime Ministers Proposals with Second Preference votes is the most sensible thing a politician has said recently in my view but unfortunately it clearly wont happen.

 

[Aictos]

Notice in the Independent that, to ready themselves for (a) Brexit and (b) the Olympics, Paris's Eurostar terminal is baing rebuilt and will cater for British and non-EU's entering having to use ETIAS (or similar) documentation in seperate (and no doubt lengthy) queues. Brussels will probably have to do the same. Of course today you have your passports checked at the departing end so you just walk off the train and away. Looks like all that will change.

Welcome to the Brave New World. I do hope we get another chance to vote this nonsense down.

It is complete nonsense and that's because it's Pro EU bias from the Independent, I quote from the Brexit White Paper which is being discussed over here at > https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/brexit-white-paper.167008/

136 (p43):
The UK and relevant Member States have a common interest in ensuring that cross-border rail services, the Channel Tunnel and the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise line, continue without disruption.

Over 10 million passengers travelled on the Eurostar in 2017, and the Eurotunnel’s passenger and freight shuttle carried 2.6 million passenger vehicles, 1.6 million HGVs and 51,000 coaches in 2017.

The EU and the UK have agreed that the UK will pursue bilateral agreements with France, Belgium and the Netherlands to ensure the continued smooth functioning and operation of services through the Channel Tunnel, and with Ireland to do the same for the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise line.

Having passport checks at Paris as the Pro EU remainers are saying will happen is not in line with the proposed bilateral agreements after all Ireland, France, Netherlands and Belgium all have a common interest together with the UK to ensure that cross country services are NOT affected.

Yes Gare Du Nord is being rebuilt but that's mainly because 1. It's the busiest station within Europe and 2. Paris will be holding the Olympics in 2024 so like London did for 2012 they will be upgrading the infrastructure, what's likely to happen is the EU and UK will come to a agreement and it will be business as usual because it is in neither parties interest to put barriers in front of the other.

I am neither Leave nor Remain just being realistic!

 

[Howardh]

It is complete nonsense and that's because it's Pro EU bias from the Independent, I quote from the Brexit White Paper which is being discussed over here at > https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/brexit-white-paper.167008/

136 (p43):
The UK and relevant Member States have a common interest in ensuring that cross-border rail services, the Channel Tunnel and the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise line, continue without disruption.

Over 10 million passengers travelled on the Eurostar in 2017, and the Eurotunnel’s passenger and freight shuttle carried 2.6 million passenger vehicles, 1.6 million HGVs and 51,000 coaches in 2017.

The EU and the UK have agreed that the UK will pursue bilateral agreements with France, Belgium and the Netherlands to ensure the continued smooth functioning and operation of services through the Channel Tunnel, and with Ireland to do the same for the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise line.

Having passport checks at Paris as the Pro EU remainers are saying will happen is not in line with the proposed bilateral agreements after all Ireland, France, Netherlands and Belgium all have a common interest together with the UK to ensure that cross country services are NOT affected.

Yes Gare Du Nord is being rebuilt but that's mainly because 1. It's the busiest station within Europe and 2. Paris will be holding the Olympics in 2024 so like London did for 2012 they will be upgrading the infrastructure, what's likely to happen is the EU and UK will come to a agreement and it will be business as usual because it is in neither parties interest to put barriers in front of the other.

I am neither Leave nor Remain just being realistic!

OK - so if we all end up having to have Visas or Visa Waivers (ETIAS), which is currently on the cards (neither the EU nor the UK have ruled it out) where and how are they gonna be checked? Which side? How will the queues be organised? This beauracracy could start on Jan 1 2021 and we probably won't know we will need to cater for this (or not) for another 18 months at least at the rate we're going.

Clearly everyone wants the situation to be as it is now; but if it's *no deal* that goes out of the window. Hopefully the length of time it's taking to negotiate (have we started yet...??!!) means we're probably running out of time for a no-deal and things will end up the same *finger's crossed* - but who knows?

 

[WelshBluebird]

The UK and relevant Member States have a common interest in ensuring that cross-border rail services, the Channel Tunnel and the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise line, continue without disruption.

Which is great, but if we have a no deal Brexit then it won't continue without disruption as a deal (as described later on in your quote as "bilateral agreements") would be required.

 

[EM2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933
Brexiteers' Customs Bill amendments accepted by government

Downing Street has accepted four amendments put forward by Brexiteer Tories to its Customs Bill.

One of the amendments could stop the UK from collecting tariffs for the EU, part of Theresa May's Chequers plan which has upset some Tory MPs.

Another change could rule out the EU's "backstop" on customs.

Theresa May's spokesman said the changes were "consistent" with the proposals put forward by the government so far.

But in the Commons, Labour MP Stephen Kinnock said the prime minister had "capitulated" to Conservative Brexiteers and that the proposals agreed at the Chequers summit were now "dead in the water".

Mrs May said this was "absolutely wrong", adding: "I would not have gone through all the work that I did to ensure that we reached that agreement only to see it changed in some way through these bills."

The government, which does not have a Commons majority, has been under pressure from MPs on both sides of the Brexit debate.

The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 and Parliament is considering a number of new laws needed to prepare for this and for life after the end of a proposed transition period, which is scheduled to last up to December 2020.

Last week's White Paper setting out the UK's preferred trading relationship with the EU - including a "common rule book" between the two sides - has angered many Tory MPs and they were set to show their displeasure by trying to amend the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Bill, known as the Customs Bill.

As well as calling on the UK not to collect tariffs on goods bound for the EU unless there are reciprocal arrangements in place across the continent, the amendments rule out a border in the Irish sea, ensure the UK is out of the EU's VAT regime, and require new legislation if the government wants to form a customs union with the EU.

MPs are due to vote on the legislation at its final parliamentary stage later - and it would only take a handful of Tory MPs to side with them for the bill to fall.

The amendments are backed by the European Research Group of MPs, whose chairman, Jacob Rees-Mogg, says they are designed to:

• Enshrine in law the government's commitment that Northern Ireland should be treated the same way as the rest of the country and not become a separate customs territory
• Ensure reciprocity of customs collections, treating the UK and EU as equals
• Enshrine in law the UK's commitments that it will not be part of the EU's harmonised VAT regime
• Require any new customs union with the EU only come into force if passed by Parliament through primary, rather than, secondary legislation

Two of them had been backed by former Brexit Secretary David Davis, who quit his post last week, and Mr Davis could speak during the Commons debate, expected to start after 17:00 BST - which would be his first Parliamentary intervention since his departure a week ago.

But he said he still backed Theresa May, telling reporters as he left his London home that "my name's not Geoffrey Howe" - a reference to the late Conservative politician whose barbed criticisms of Margaret Thatcher during his resignation speech in 1990 paved the way for her subsequent downfall.

Scott Mann became the latest Tory MP to stand down as a ministerial aide to the Treasury in protest at the PM's plan, following Robert Courts who did the same on Sunday.

Former education secretary Justine Greening said the plan was the "worst of both worlds" as she became the most senior Tory politician to call for another referendum on the final deal to break the current "deadlock".

Mr Clark, the business secretary, said he disagreed with his colleague and believed the Chequers plan was the best way forward.

Urging the EU to respond positively to the UK's proposals, he said an agreement this autumn, if it was backed by Parliament, would bring "certainty for working people right across the country".

I'll be honest, I am now thoroughly confused as to what the Government policy is, who is in favour of what, how this affects Ireland and trade with the rest of the EU, and pretty much everything else. Frankly, I haven't got a clue any more, except that whatever comes out at the end of it will make no-one happy.

 

[Bromley boy]

Well Justine Greening call for a second referendum this morning based on vote for, Hard Brexit, Staying in the EU, or something along the lines of the Prime Ministers Proposals with Second Preference votes is the most sensible thing a politician has said recently in my view but unfortunately it clearly wont happen.

I don’t think it’s remotely sensible (and not just because of the way I voted in 2016).

1. Plebiscite votes should only be used for the broadest possible questions of constitutional reform. Using them to determine granular details of policy is asking for trouble. Keep in mind the result of another vote might well be to crash out with no deal and no preparation;

2. How can the government possibly go into a negotiation with the EU on the footing that the British public might choose to remain anyway?

Greening’s comment is precisely the kind of ludicrous, point scoring suggestion that makes me wish the negotiations were being handled by people with more of a business focussed approach than a politically focussed one (or at least a better balance of the two).

 

[Bromley boy]

Frankly, I haven't got a clue any more, except that whatever comes out at the end of it will make no-one happy.

That’s probably inevitable.

The government is doing a p*ss poor job two years in, that’s for sure!

 

[Howardh]

That’s probably inevitable.

The government is doing a p*ss poor job two years in, that’s for sure!

Couldn't we just put a temporary halt to everything, just admit it's been a right shambles from start to not even past the first hurdle, stay in the EU; try to get some kind of consessions regarding what leavers want - and then if there are none go back and do the referendum properly in 5 years time with a clear endpoint? I know I'm a remainer and I Would Say That Wouldn't I (even though I think the EU DOES need some reform) but even amongst those still wishing to leave there's little concensus as to what leave is. Out of the 34 million voters, will whatever happens (deal, no deal, in, out, shake it all about) please more than 17m of them (a majority)? Some chance.

Could end up with less than 20% of the electorate happy with what results. Tonight in parliament we now have those who would have voted for the white paper now voting against it simply because the ERG got concessions.

Nurse...???

 

[Tetchytyke]

The UK and relevant Member States have a common interest in ensuring that cross-border rail services, the Channel Tunnel and the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise line, continue without disruption.

Do they?

The White Paper might assert that but, as we've seen, this Government seem to have a very tenuous grip on reality.

The people of Hauts-de-France might even have an interest in the ending of juxtaposed border controls...

 

[Tetchytyke]

negotiations were being handled by people with more of a business focussed approach than a politically focussed one (or at least a better balance of the two).

The people with a business focus have all said Brexit is a terrible idea.

Do you want Remoaners leading the negotiations?

I would, of course.