EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[northwichcat]

So it sounds like May is going to ask the EU for a Norway Lite style deal for the 2019-2021 period.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Corbyn is very good at delivering his core message, the sort of message which is well received at something like the Durham miners' gala. He quickly crumbles when off that core message. I genuinely don't see what 'the young' see in him at all - to me he is trying to manipulate a subset of the population who have less life experience and thus no real-world experience of these sorts of policies being enacted in practice.

No one really knows Corbyn's position on Brexit, which is a ridiculous situation. Either he's hiding something or is terrible at articulating himself - unsatisfactory either way.

1 - You realise that it isn't just "the young" who have voted for him and supported him right? And even if you ignore that, I don't see what is so ridiculous about people realising that we shouldn't just have to put up with the current Tory narratives of "cut everything" and "prop up house prices at any cost" which are decimating the chances in life of many of "the young".

2 - In terms of his own position on Brexit, unless anything has changed in the last month or so, I thought it was pretty well known. It was the Labour position that was less solid, mainly because of the split right down the middle in Labour voters stance on the issue.

So it sounds like May is going to ask the EU for a Norway Lite style deal for the 2019-2021 period.

If that does happen, I can almost imagine a similar arrangement becoming pretty much permanent. Maybe with a few tweaks here and there.

 

[Hornet]

No one really knows Corbyn's position on Brexit, which is a ridiculous situation. Either he's hiding something or is terrible at articulating himself - unsatisfactory either way.

I think we do.

So what exactly are Corbyn’s views on the EU? It’s worth reminding ourselves, as even some passionate Corbyn supporters seem to have forgotten.

Corbyn voted against membership in 1975, voted against the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, and voted against the Lisbon Treaty in 2009. He has opposed the EU at every opportunity.
“The European Central Bank will undermine any social objective that any Labour Government in the United Kingdom — or any other Government — would wish to carry out.” Jeremy Corbyn, Hansard

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=1993-01-13a.948.2

“What powers do we have to do anything about the fraud in EU institutions? Much of that money seems to find its way into the hands of the Mafia or into grandiose, unwanted and often badly-built construction projects that are of no use to anybody.” Jeremy Corbyn, Hansard

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=1993-03-30a.238.3

“The Treaty on European Union takes away from national Parliaments the power to set economic policy and hands it over to an unelected set of bankers” Jeremy Corbyn, Hansard

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=1993-05-20a.389.4

Public opposition to the EU’s TTIP treaty is “a cri de coeur for democracy and for the right of people to elect a Government who can decide what goes on in their country.” Jeremy Corbyn, Hansard

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2015-01-15b.1106.0

On the secrecy of the EU’s TTIP negotiations: “Is it because there are ante-rooms on either side of the Atlantic stuffed full of highly effective corporate lobbyists doing their best to develop their own interests?” Jeremy Corbyn, Hansard

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2015-01-15b.1106.0

Morocco’s occupation of the Western Sahara “involves the gross abuse of human rights and theft of natural resources - and the EU is directly responsible.” Jeremy Corbyn on his blog, recently deleted.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...f-a-forgotten-land/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

 

[HSTEd]

Corbyn is very good at delivering his core message, the sort of message which is well received at something like the Durham miners' gala. He quickly crumbles when off that core message. I genuinely don't see what 'the young' see in him at all - to me he is trying to manipulate a subset of the population who have less life experience and thus no real-world experience of these sorts of policies being enacted in practice.

The idea that it is only the naivete of the young that leads them to believe that there is any other way of organising society than the one that the Baby Boomers introduced in the 80s is a little insulting.

Considering that many of the supposed failures of state ownership of utiliteis and industry merely intensified after they were handed to the private sector.
Electricity production costs declined in real terms during the existance of the CEGB - and after a brief trough caused by the introduction of practical CCGTs have been climbing ever since.
Railway costs per passenger-km have not declined in real terms since privatisation, and subsidies have climbed despite massively increased passenger numbers and large real terms increases in ticket prices.
There are numerous examples that I can't really go into here that show that the Thatcherite revolution has not really delivered what was promised.

The cost of housing has exploded, which leads to the younger generation spending increasingly large shares of their income on something that was relatively cheaply and easily available in the 70s.

We are now expected to work at the convenience of the employer, with neligible enforceable employment rights and pay that has stagnated in real terms [wages as a share of GDP peaked in 1979... I wonder why?] whilst being told how lucky we are because we live in a world where we can have smartphones or somesuch.

[Many baby boomers like to claim we have it easy compared to them, subtly failing to notice that compared to us, they were living in a lap of luxury when compared to their parents. For some reason the generational improvement in living standards they enjoyed no longer applies when it is their job to pay for it.]

Its not surprising considering the apparent moral bankruptcy and a lack of any real new ideas from the political establishment that a desire to return to a more regimented and possibly less 'dynamic' [since dynamism seems to actually consist of forcing workers to work harder and for less money, with worse conditions] economy, even if that mean GDP growth is slightly smaller.

And being serious - were the 70s and the Winter of Discontent really that bad?
Leave aside the tabloid hyperbole - noone from that era that I have actually talked to had that bad an experience of it - indeed one man fondly remembered working as a cabinet maker by candle light due to the cyclic power cuts.
And the energy crises were primarily caused by conditions in the global economy not really the fault of the British Government, steps could easily be taken to prevent them from reoccuring.

The idea that utiliites and such are too expensive to renationalise merely underlines the shear scale of the resources squandered by the Baby Boomer generation.
A trillion pounds or more in oil revenue, hundreds of billions pounds of electricity, gas and telephone systems.

Where did it all go?
What did the baby boomers buy with all the money they got for selling this stuff?
Where is the birthright they were given by their parents, on the understanding that it would eventually be passed to the generation after them?

Where is it?

 

[DarloRich]

I thought we weren't paying those dirty European fiends any of our decent, honest, hardworking, striving not skiving, strong and stable, British money?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41355642

BBC: The BBC understands she will propose a two-year transitional deal, after March 2019, ahead of a permanent trade deal.
It could include payments worth 20bn euros (about £18bn) over the two years.

 

[DarloRich]

duplicate

 

[northwichcat]

I thought we weren't paying those dirty European fiends any of our decent, honest, hardworking, striving not skiving, strong and stable, British money?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41355642

It's similar to what you were saying in another thread about union and TOC negotiations:

UK: We'll pay you nothing but want x, y and z.
EU: We want 50bn for x, y and z.
UK: We'll give you 20bn for x and y and part of z.
And so on.

Maybe Boris Johnson can be guarantor for £350m a week to the NHS from 2019 given he's so confident about that figure?

 

[DarloRich]

It's similar to what you were saying in another thread about union and TOC negotiations:

UK: We'll pay you nothing but want x, y and z.
EU: We want 50bn for x, y and z.
UK: We'll give you 20bn for x and y and part of z.
And so on.

Maybe Boris Johnson can be guarantor for £350m a week to the NHS from 2019 given he's so confident about that figure?

I agree this is all part of the negotiation process but the politicians told us there would be no money changing hands. They wouldn't lie would they?

 

[ainsworth74]

Did they put it on the side of a bus though that we wouldn't have to pay the 'divorce bill'? That's the only measure I stand by these days.

 

[northwichcat]

Did they put it on the side of a bus though that we wouldn't have to pay the 'divorce bill'? That's the only measure I stand by these days.

No the only recent bus claim is Theresa May would deliver a Strong & Stable Britain - something we eagerly await!

 

[Senex]

I agree this is all part of the negotiation process but the politicians told us there would be no money changing hands. They wouldn't lie would they?

Of course they would — they're politicians!

 

[Domh245]

There will be no transitional deal they said!

Theresa May has set out proposals for a two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU in March 2019.

She wants existing EU market access arrangements to apply during that period and promised Britain would pay its "fair share" into the EU budget.

She said the UK will be the "strongest friend and partner" of the EU after Brexit.

The speech in Italy was aimed at breaking the deadlock in Brexit talks, due to resume on Monday.

(I am aware that said deal could be rejected by the EU of course)

 

[AM9]

There will be no transitional deal they said!



(I am aware that said deal could be rejected by the EU of course)

And of course this does nothing to advance negotiations on the divorce bill.

 

[najaB]

How many others think that the two year transitional arrangement will be conveniently extended for an additional adjustment period of five years, followed by a further choose your word period...

 

[HSTEd]

My father wrote to the local conservative party asking who he should vote for in the election because all the material they sent mentioned voting for Theresa May..... and she wasn't on the ballot paper.

It was a rather amusing response he got.

 

[Howardh]

How many others think that the two year transitional arrangement will be conveniently extended for an additional adjustment period of five years, followed by a further choose your word period...

**Waves**

There's no way we can leave the world's biggest trading bloc, and two years will become 5 - if it goes well for business they will want to keep whatever arrangements are in place in place, and if it goes badly business will want us back in the EU sharpish (at whatever cost). Not only that, an extra 2 years takes us very close the the next General Election; clearly May and her cronies are scared stiff that we would have a cliff-edge plunge and they lose that election so will be hoping that the transitonal period calms everyone bar the hard-liners and we can find some position of relative comfort half-in half-out.

Although I would be happier to remain in - some kind of out-but-in arrangement would get my vote currently. Brexiters can't scream for another referendum if they don't like the situation, they don't want one remember (not even on the outcome of the negotiations), so they will have to put up and shut up.

So, we've had a general election we weren't having, and we are aiming for a transitional period we weren't having. We were leaving.....

 

[AM9]

**Waves**

There's no way we can leave the world's biggest trading bloc, and two years will become 5 - if it goes well for business they will want to keep whatever arrangements are in place in place, and if it goes badly business will want us back in the EU sharpish (at whatever cost). Not only that, an extra 2 years takes us very close the the next General Election; clearly May and her cronies are scared stiff that we would have a cliff-edge plunge and they lose that election so will be hoping that the transitonal period calms everyone bar the hard-liners and we can find some position of relative comfort half-in half-out.

Although I would be happier to remain in - some kind of out-but-in arrangement would get my vote currently. Brexiters can't scream for another referendum if they don't like the situation, they don't want one remember (not even on the outcome of the negotiations), so they will have to put up and shut up.

So, we've had a general election we weren't having, and we are aiming for a transitional period we weren't having. We were leaving.....

I've thought similar to that since early July last year, - before May was crowned by the Tories as the least worst option.
It's always seemed that the electorate having voted for what they thought they wanted, will think again when the impact of events that their vote triggered becomes clearer. The 'less painful' route will trump any high-minded presumption of being held to a 'democratic decision' made at that farce of a referendum. The non-leaver politicians know that so they are just waiting quietly.

 

[Howardh]

I don't want to direct or link anyone to The Pit Of Hate, but the Daily Mail's comments are worth a read. They will never vote Tory again, betrayed, sold down the river etc etc.

But they got what they voted for, an empty piece of paper without a map or a plan. Or even a pen.

 

[Groningen]

What are Daily Mail readers than going to vote. I think UKIP is the only option.

 

[Howardh]

What are Daily Mail readers than going to vote. I think UKIP is the only option.

If they split 50/50 they would probably let in a pro-EU party, at least in coalition. Labour will shift with the wind/unions and would probably co-exist with the SNP and Libdems and do what they told them to do r/e the EU.

 

[Dave1987]

I was reading today that even a two year "transitional deal" would simply be 'kicking the can down the road' as the UK would still crash out of the Single market and Customs union after the transitional period. Reports from the city are that 10,000 jobs have already been relocated to mainland Europe, and they are very unlikely to return. May and the Government have tried to bluff the EU and they have been called. I read that May wants to tag onto the trade deal the EU has just struck with the Canadians. Only problem is is that the UK market is a fraction of the size of that of the remaining 27 EU countries so Canada isn't likely to give May the same terms as what the EU is getting. As predicted its all turning into a massive mess.

 

[Howardh]

I was reading today that even a two year "transitional deal" would simply be 'kicking the can down the road' as the UK would still crash out of the Single market and Customs union after the transitional period. Reports from the city are that 10,000 jobs have already been relocated to mainland Europe, and they are very unlikely to return. May and the Government have tried to bluff the EU and they have been called. I read that May wants to tag onto the trade deal the EU has just struck with the Canadians. Only problem is is that the UK market is a fraction of the size of that of the remaining 27 EU countries so Canada isn't likely to give May the same terms as what the EU is getting. As predicted its all turning into a massive mess.

But don't tell Brexiters that. They all think it's hunky-dory in Farageland because he says so

 

[RichmondCommu]

I was reading today that even a two year "transitional deal" would simply be 'kicking the can down the road' as the UK would still crash out of the Single market and Customs union after the transitional period. Reports from the city are that 10,000 jobs have already been relocated to mainland Europe, and they are very unlikely to return.

Do you have a source for this?

 

[Dave1987]

Do you have a source for this?

It was in the opinion section of the London Evening Standard today. It did say in there that these were unconfirmed reports from city insiders.

 

[RichmondCommu]

It was in the opinion section of the London Evening Standard today. It did say in there that these were unconfirmed reports from city insiders.

Unconfirmed reports from city insiders is not concrete evidence. For what its worth I work for an asset management company and I'm a 'remainer'. I've no doubt that jobs will be lost to Frankfurt, Paris and possibly Dublin but as things stand 10,000 jobs have not been transferred over to those financial centres.

 

[Dave1987]

Unconfirmed reports from city insiders is not concrete evidence. For what its worth I work for an asset management company and I'm a 'remainer'. I've no doubt that jobs will be lost to Frankfurt, Paris and possibly Dublin but as things stand 10,000 jobs have not been transferred over to those financial centres.

Ow im well aware that the quality of the journalism at the LES is questionable at times. I find that the only media that has neutral journalism is the Beeb News. The rest usually have a left or right wing agenda. The Guardian, Independent and The Times I find tend to be centre left or centre right which I find tolerable. But the LES is free and is in abundance at stations so I usually give it a read even if one does need a small bowl of salt to take a pinch of why reading it

 

[PHILIPE]

It was in the opinion section of the London Evening Standard today. It did say in there that these were unconfirmed reports from city insiders.

You know who the editor is. Mr Project Fear.

 

[thejuggler]

Listening to radio today its sad how it has taken almost 50 years for the EU to be featured in a any discussion, yet everyone has become an expert over the last 18 months! Except most demonstrate their expertise is from whichever newspaper they wish to read.

It appears after 2019 we will be Norway for a couple of years, paying in, but no one representing the UK in the EU Parliament.

As the UK can bid and receive EU grants until 2021 under the current EU funding rounds it could potentially be 2035/40 before these funding contracts expire. I susepct the UK will be expected to pay the EU for management of these funds until that date.

 

[Dave1987]

You know who the editor is. Mr Project Fear.

Mr Osborne is most definitely a controversial figure but I happen to believe it to be true. There was an economist talking to Christian Fraser on B100D's who was explaining why May is in very much disadvantaged position when posturing for post Brexit trade deals. I think people over estimate our status on the world stage. As a major player in one of the biggest markets in the world i.e the EU single market, we are a major economy with skills and specialities to go with it. On our own we are a tiny island with a population and economy a fraction that of the EU. Any trade deal with the Trump is going to benefit the US far more than it does the UK. Japanese firms have invested heavily in the UK because of the access to the single market. Eventually people might say see this for what it is, once it's too late. Yes the EU exports lots to us but I'm sure all those jobs being transferred from the UK to the EU post Brexit for access to the single market will more than make up for the loss off exports.

 

[Howardh]

I see Upper Class Twit Of The Year (rees-Smug) isn't happy about May's speech. OK, money where your mouth is, go to Conference and stand against her.

Or shut up.