EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Xenophon PCDGS]

These voters voted leave, that says it all.

I'm sure when the Sun drums up the patriotism they'll change their mind.

Glad to see that the Daily Mail was not given as the example for a change...

Well done, that man.

 

[northwichcat]

How salient is the issue of Gibraltar to the average British citizen? Just done a quick off-the-cuff survey of the dozen people in my workplace at the moment and the result was a unanimous "don't care". Although the majority of this unscientific but random snapshot were leave voters, the opinion was the same for the remainers too.

Do they know why Anglo Dutch forces took control of Gibraltar in the first place?

Do they know that almost everyone in Gibraltar voted Remain but as a UK Overseas territory they'll now be forced out?

 

[northwichcat]

.
All that means is that Gibraltar falls back on having a closed border with Spain - which it had for most of the last century.
It is hardly catastrophic since not much of its economy is actually based on cross border trade.

Brilliant for trade and tourism :roll:

I suppose you'd think rebuilding the Berlin wall would be OK because it was there for most of the last century.

 

[Moonshot]

How salient is the issue of Gibraltar to the average British citizen? Just done a quick off-the-cuff survey of the dozen people in my workplace at the moment and the result was a unanimous "don't care". Although the majority of this unscientific but random snapshot were leave voters, the opinion was the same for the remainers too.

I think this veto issue quoted above could also be applied to a whole host of other countries with vested interests which involve the UK......fishing rights would be one of them for example.

What % of the average British Citizen could name their own MEP off the cuff ?

 

[Senex]

I think this veto issue quoted above could also be applied to a whole host of other countries with vested interests which involve the UK......fishing rights would be one of them for example.

What % of the average British Citizen could name their own MEP off the cuff ?

And why should anyone be surprised? The EU-of-27 will of course look after its own interests as a union and the interests of its remaining member states, and that will in many cases set it on an adversarial course with the UK. As in any negotiations, there will be trade-offs and compromises -- where it suits the EU to make such deals. We are the weaker party, but then that was always predicatable. As Keir Starmer has noted, it will be very hard indeed for May & Co to deliver what David Davis promised.

No, I couldn't name my MEP, but that's down at least in part to the fact that the local MEP gets no local publicity at all. And I am hard pressed to remember the name of the local MP (rather than just think of "that woman who was parachuted in").

 

[northwichcat]

You don't have one MEP, you have a few MEPs representing your region and unlike General Elections you don't vote for a person. At the last European election most people voted UKIP so some of the UKIP candidates who were a long way down their list on the ballot paper actually got in, while some of the more established names lost their place.

I imagine most people living in the North West region they'll probably recognise the names Paul Nuttall and Steven Woolfe even if they don't realise that they are MEPs representing them. Apparently we also have UKIP's Louise Bours as an MEP who's previous job was an actress - no wonder she fits in at UKIP!

 

[Senex]

Apparently we also have UKIP's Louise Bours as an MEP who's previous job was an actress - no wonder she fits in at UKIP!

Since actors (and other entertainers) are the acknowledged experts these days on anything and everything, I'm sure she is the ideal choice for an MEP.

 

[miami]

Glad to see that the Daily Mail was not given as the example for a change...

Well done, that man.

The sun tends to be the first call for faux-patriotism

The Mail is the first call for fake news

 

[Howardh]

You don't have one MEP, you have a few MEPs representing your region and unlike General Elections you don't vote for a person. At the last European election most people voted UKIP so some of the UKIP candidates who were a long way down their list on the ballot paper actually got in, while some of the more established names lost their place.

I imagine most people living in the North West region they'll probably recognise the names Paul Nuttall and Steven Woolfe even if they don't realise that they are MEPs representing them. Apparently we also have UKIP's Louise Bours as an MEP who's previous job was an actress - no wonder she fits in at UKIP!

...1 I know who my Labour MEP is...2 I've written to her and....3 got a reply!!

 

[Barn]

I think this veto issue quoted above could also be applied to a whole host of other countries with vested interests which involve the UK......fishing rights would be one of them for example.

Which is why we need to give the impression that we won't accept a deal at any price - as the Government has been canny enough to say and the opposition has been myopic enough to dispute.

 

[miami]

You don't have one MEP, you have a few MEPs representing your region and unlike General Elections you don't vote for a person. At the last European election most people voted UKIP

No they didn't. About 1 in 4 of those that voted voted ukip, 3 in 4 didn't. They had a slim plurality, but nowhere near a majority.

Ask 100 people in the uk and you'd find about 6 who voted ukip in the European elections 2014. That's not "most".

In the north west the plurality - 34% - voted labour. 28% voted ukip.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No they didn't. About 1 in 4 of those that voted voted ukip, 3 in 4 didn't. They had a slim plurality, but nowhere near a majority. Ask 100 people in the uk and you'd find about 6 who voted ukip in the European elections 2014. That's not "most".

In the north west the plurality - 34% - voted labour. 28% voted ukip.

Who did the other 38% cast their votes for in the North West?

 

[HSTEd]

Brilliant for trade and tourism :roll:

Considering most tourism to Gibraltar is actually from outside of spain....
And the highest value import from Spain into Gibraltar is bunker oil for refueling ships - which could quite easily be obtained from elsewhere.

I suppose you'd think rebuilding the Berlin wall would be OK because it was there for most of the last century.

When did I say it would be "OK"?
I simply pointed out that Gibraltar would likely prefer a closed border to simply surrendering to Spanish rule.

 

[najaB]

When did I say it would be "OK"?
I simply pointed out that Gibraltar would likely prefer a closed border to simply surrendering to Spanish rule.

Choosing the rock over the hard place.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Choosing the rock over the hard place.

Both Gibraltar and Heligoland came under British control as a result of historical military action, yet Britain ceded Heligoland after the Second World War. What strategic and military need does Gibraltar fulfil in the 21st century with the British naval fleet a mere shadow of what it once was?

 

[najaB]

What strategic and military need does Gibraltar fulfil in the 21st century with the British naval fleet a mere shadow of what it once was?

It's true that the Senior Service is much reduced from its peak strength, but one fact that hasn't changed is that any vessel transiting from the Med to the Atlantic does so within shooting distance of Gibraltar. For that reason alone, ceding it is a step not to be taken lightly.

 

[Howardh]

Both Gibraltar and Heligoland came under British control as a result of historical military action, yet Britain ceded Heligoland after the Second World War. What strategic and military need does Gibraltar fulfil in the 21st century with the British naval fleet a mere shadow of what it once was?

Probably not a lot, but shouldn't that be directed to NATO? Of course wouldn't matter who owned Gib, Spain or UK as far as NATO are concerned, but it could be a very interesting to see the faces of the Spanish, EU and the US if we asked Russia how much is it worth

 

[ninja-lewis]

Both Gibraltar and Heligoland came under British control as a result of historical military action, yet Britain ceded Heligoland after the Second World War. What strategic and military need does Gibraltar fulfil in the 21st century with the British naval fleet a mere shadow of what it once was?

Heligoland was exchanged in the Heligoland-Zanzibar Treaty of 1890. Heligoland was German throughout the First and Second World Wars. Post-war the uninhabited island was used as bombing range by NATO forces until the Federal German government reclaimed it in 1951.

The only people who have the right to decide the future of Gibraltar are the 32k residents. In spite of Brexit, public opinion appears to remain staunchly British.

 

[miami]

Who did the other 38% cast their votes for in the North West?

Tory, green and lib dem got above 5% - all dropped in support since 2009. The rest were many minor parties that had under 2%. I believe I voted Pirate in 2014 for example, which I'm happy to say beat Socialist Equality, but sadly failed to beat BNP.

 

[HSTEd]

Both Gibraltar and Heligoland came under British control as a result of historical military action, yet Britain ceded Heligoland after the Second World War.

Heligoland was traded away for territory of equal or greater value - partially to aid in the Royal Navy's attempt to suppress the Indian Ocean Slave trade (in which it was sadly never completely succesful)

What strategic and military need does Gibraltar fulfil in the 21st century with the British naval fleet a mere shadow of what it once was?

Gibraltar has a far greater population than Heligoland ever did - and it has centuries of history with Britain.
Such things are not lightly cast aside - especially after the political fallout that was unleashed when 8 million Hong Kongers were abandoned to a military dictatorship.

 

[Busaholic]

Gibralter, home to the Barbary Apes: now to become our modern Falklands? I wouldn't discount Theresa May seeking to emulate Margaret Thatcher's popular appeal by putting Johnny Foreigner in their place and Boris Johnson, without the savvy and inate intelligence of his Etonian predecessor Lord (Peter) Carrington, weighing in with his usual carelessness and 'mal mots'. As the penny finally drops among some of the 52% that a catastrophic process has been initiated, the 'war of words' will ramp up and May will want to show that she is a strong leader, however hopelessly misguided she may be. In the meantime, Corbyn will bluster non-effectively and the UK will go the way of Germany (East Germany, circa 1987, that is). And I'm an eternal optimist!

 

[najaB]

...especially after the political fallout that was unleashed when 8 million Hong Kongers were abandoned to a military dictatorship.

To be fair, as I understand it China wasn't in the mood to renew the lease (on the New Territories and Kowloon) so we didn't have much choice but to leave.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Heligoland was traded away for territory of equal or greater value - partially to aid in the Royal Navy's attempt to suppress the Indian Ocean slave trade (in which it was sadly never completely succesful)

I was surprised to learn that one pre-1900 issue of the postage stamps of Heligoland actually carried an embossed silhouette of Queen Victoria and the ruling Germanic currency values.

 

[Howardh]

Gibralter, home to the Barbary Apes: now to become our modern Falklands? I wouldn't discount Theresa May seeking to emulate Margaret Thatcher's popular appeal by putting Johnny Foreigner in their place and Boris Johnson, without the savvy and inate intelligence of his Etonian predecessor Lord (Peter) Carrington, weighing in with his usual carelessness and 'mal mots'. As the penny finally drops among some of the 52% that a catastrophic process has been initiated, the 'war of words' will ramp up and May will want to show that she is a strong leader, however hopelessly misguided she may be. In the meantime, Corbyn will bluster non-effectively and the UK will go the way of Germany (East Germany, circa 1987, that is). And I'm an eternal optimist!

Who currently has the piece of paper to wave in the air??

 

[northwichcat]

No they didn't. About 1 in 4 of those that voted voted ukip, 3 in 4 didn't. They had a slim plurality, but nowhere near a majority.

Yeah I should have said UKIP got more votes than any other party.

 

[northwichcat]

Tory, green and lib dem got above 5% - all dropped in support since 2009. The rest were many minor parties that had under 2%. I believe I voted Pirate in 2014 for example, which I'm happy to say beat Socialist Equality, but sadly failed to beat BNP.

And also got beaten by the English Democrats.

I thought at the time the Green Party probably are one of the most likely to take Nick Griffin's seat provided UKIP didn't get it. Despite UKIP getting it my prediction was almost right as the Greens finished 4th ahead of the Lib Dems and BNP.

 

[317 forever]

May is telling the country that we now need to be united about Brexit, but she and our government hasn't actually done anything to warrant this unity.

They are driving for a hard Brexit, deal or no deal, we're leaving which completely ignores that 48% that wanted to stay. Where is the compromise?

Everyone goes on about 'remoaners' but 48% is a heck of a lot of people. We are more divided than ever.

I can't wait to see what absolute drivel the Daily Fail comes out with when the EU doesn't bow down to exactly what we want.

If anything, the country could unite behind a Soft Brexit. The 48% who voted Remain would prefer this to a Hard Brexit. Suppose just 1 in 20 Leave voters would prefer a Soft Brexit, this takes us Soft Brexiteers up to 50.6%.

So, it beats me how Theresa thinks she can unite the country behind a Hard Brexit.

 

[317 forever]

You may well be right, all political eras tend to have a shelf-life though, things go stale after a while no matter how well embedded they seem. The centre ground, where the votes naturally lie, is currently sitting a little to the right of where it has been for some time. A political party who correctly identifies this could do very well electorally, and it seems the Conservatives have done that (with a little unexpected help from Mr Farage and Mr Corbyn!).

It could be said that Mr Farage caused the referendum to happen, Mr Corbyn neglected the Remain side sufficiently to cause our EU membership to be lost, but David Cameron was just the fall guy in the middle.

 

[317 forever]

Much as it sticks in the craw to defend any Tory leader, the only authoritarian tendency I perceive in May is her willingness to implement the outcome of the referendum vote. In every other way she is a Europhile social and moral liberal. Had she not carried through the mandate her predecessor offered, she would have permanently discredited referendums as a political tool (no bad thing perhaps), but would have overseen a profoundly and unprecedentedly undemocratic move in modern British politics of not taking a public vote seriously. In a tribal voting system which privileges a few marginal seats and takes the rest of the population for granted, the EU referendum gave the opportunity to test British democracy in the raw. For all her liberal instincts May was a shrewd enough politician to see that stalling Brexit would have taken the UK into uncharted political waters, which given the already deep mistrust of politics and politicians was a risk she was not prepared to take.

While this made it politically necessary for Theresa to implement Brexit, it did not give her a mandate for such a hard Brexit. I no longer trust her to be Europhile like you described her above.

 

[najaB]

While this made it politically necessary for Theresa to implement Brexit, it did not give her a mandate for such a hard Brexit.

We're on the same page here. The question asked in the referendum was 'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'

There is nothing in that which requires the Government to pursue either a 'Hard' or 'Soft' Brexit so the path being taken is entirely driven by her political considerations or ideology.