EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[furnessvale]

And if the public don't want to leave anymore? The deal is looking increasingly unattractive, and WTO rules would severely hurt the economy.

If the public don't want to leave anymore? On that basis we should have a referendum on the subject at least every five years.

It is only looking unattractive to commiitted remainers. Looking at the disintegration of the EU currently happening before our eyes, by the time we are ready to leave it will be obvious to an even bigger majority that our best place is trading with the world, not a corrupt self serving backward looking EU.

 

[burneside]

You said it.

I'm not the one who said there was a deal. Attractive or otherwise.

 

[Howardh]

I'm not the one who said there was a deal. Attractive or otherwise.

You said you hadn't heard of a deal.

It's about time there was. You're hard-line Brexit; but there must be many who fell for the strapline (less immigration, more for the NHS) who are beginning to want to know what on Earth's going on. As business becomes more jittery - and that's who the government will listen to, not me or you) the longer this goes on, the more chance of finding even more reasons not to leave.

C'mon Brexit, we know there's no points system, so give us a hint of your plans.

 

[burneside]

I'd like to know more about this "unattractive" deal mentioned earlier in the thread.

 

[Howardh]

If the public don't want to leave anymore? On that basis we should have a referendum on the subject at least every five years.
.

We do, it's called a General Election and the outcome trumps referendums and the next is due in 2020.

It will be interesting if we have left by then...maybe 6 - 9 months or more into Brexit, whether the bright shiny futures we all be enjoying, the shiny new hospital wards, the unemployment rate falling and Stirling rising, which Party will get the benefit of all this wealth and opportunity.

Churchill won the war but lost the election. Which party will get the credit??

 

[TheKnightWho]

If the public don't want to leave anymore? On that basis we should have a referendum on the subject at least every five years.

It is only looking unattractive to commiitted remainers. Looking at the disintegration of the EU currently happening before our eyes, by the time we are ready to leave it will be obvious to an even bigger majority that our best place is trading with the world, not a corrupt self serving backward looking EU.

What disintegration? It's a fantasy of the right-wing press conjured up to justify a terrible decision. Support has surged on the continent.

This myth that the EU stops us trading with the world has been rebuffed by China, Japan, the US and Australia. If they're saying that, why do you think they won't conduct business elsewhere? Don't give me that line about them needing us more - each individual country does not need the UK more than the UK needs the EU as a whole.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

What deal would that be? I haven't heard any details of a Brexit deal.

Well 4 EU countries have said they won't accept any deal that blocks freedom of movement. Good luck getting a good deal when we can't even get the first thing the public apparently voted for.

 

[Tetchytyke]

A quote on Twitter this week summed up the Leave position on trade negotiations with the EU:

"Leave are arguing that because they spend more money with Tesco than Tesco does with them, that means that they are more important to Tesco than Tesco is to them."

There are only two EU countries- one of which is Ireland- that does more than 10% of their trade with the UK. The idea that the EU will be hanging on our every word is, quite frankly, laughable. We've threatened divorce and moved out to a bedsit in Wood Green whilst the EU remains in the nice Chelsea townhouse. Thinking otherwise is delusional.

 

[furnessvale]

A quote on Twitter this week summed up the Leave position on trade negotiations with the EU:

"Leave are arguing that because they spend more money with Tesco than Tesco does with them, that means that they are more important to Tesco than Tesco is to them."

There are only two EU countries- one of which is Ireland- that does more than 10% of their trade with the UK. The idea that the EU will be hanging on our every word is, quite frankly, laughable. We've threatened divorce and moved out to a bedsit in Wood Green whilst the EU remains in the nice Chelsea townhouse. Thinking otherwise is delusional.

That is what people subject to domestic abuse have to do sometimes, not that I in any way agree with your analogy.

One of the problems for your analogy is that the bedsit in Wood Green is dry, warm and in good repair but the Chelsea townhouse is falling to pieces and most of the co-renters aren't paying their share of the bills.

 

[TheKnightWho]

That is what people subject to domestic abuse have to do sometimes, not that I in any way agree with your analogy.

One of the problems for your analogy is that the bedsit in Wood Green is dry, warm and in good repair but the Chelsea townhouse is falling to pieces and most of the co-renters aren't paying their share of the bills.

Except it isn't. The right-wing press go on about this but provide little real evidence that support has fallen (it has risen considerably after June 23rd) or that the EU is unstable (it isn't - if Turkey can take 2 million migrants the EU in toto can deal with a quarter of that).

The idea the membership fee is the sum total of money exchanged hands because of the EU is laughable too. If I set up a marketplace and say rich members must subsidise the membership fee of the poorer ones, you don't ignore what the rich members sell and say they're losing money, when in absolute terms they're selling far more.

 

[Tetchytyke]

An interesting little study from YouGov. Of people voting for Brexit, 47% think we should give top priority to a trade deal with Australia, but only 23% would give top priority to an EU trade deal.

Just under 50% of our trade is with the EU. Our trade with Australia isn't.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/17/which-countries-should-uk-prioritise-post-brexit-t/

But we mustn't call people who voted Leave stupid.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Just returned from a much needed break/holiday in Devon and whilst perusing this thread, I have seen reference made to "kippers" in a number of postings.

What is meant by that terminology and where did that term come from?

 

[AlterEgo]

Just returned from a much needed break/holiday in Devon and whilst perusing this thread, I have seen reference made to "kippers" in a number of postings.

What is meant by that terminology and where did that term come from?

UKIP member. It is a derogatory term. (From the "kip" in UKIP of course)

 

[radamfi]

An interesting little study from YouGov. Of people voting for Brexit, 47% think we should give top priority to a trade deal with Australia, but only 23% would give top priority to an EU trade deal.

I wouldn't be surprised if these people want freedom of movement with the Commonwealth. But only the richer bits e.g. Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

 

[miami]

An interesting little study from YouGov. Of people voting for Brexit, 47% think we should give top priority to a trade deal with Australia, but only 23% would give top priority to an EU trade deal.

EUers are dirty foreigners who we beat in the war
Austrailians are basically laid back Brits.

 

[Howardh]

TRADE;
Population of the EU excluding the UK c.670m
Population of Australia 23.13m (google search)
Population of Canada, 35.16m (google search)

Go figure.

 

[Tetchytyke]

EUers are dirty foreigners who we beat in the war
Austrailians are basically laid back Brits.

Don't forget us Australians have blue passports

 

[furnessvale]

TRADE;
Population of the EU excluding the UK c.670m
Population of Australia 23.13m (google search)
Population of Canada, 35.16m (google search)

Go figure.

World population 7.3bn.

Go figure.

 

[EM2]

Don't forget us Australians have blue passports

It's actually possible to still get a blue UK passport.
You just have to be a refugee.
https://societyandspace.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/rq6a1440.jpg

 

[miami]

World population 7.3bn.

Go figure.

Most of which are poor as dirt and aren't going to be buying whatever it is we sell.

The list of trading areas by %age GDP

USA: 24%
EU (no UK): 19%
China: 15%
Japan: 6%
UK: 4%
India: 3%
Brazil: 2%
Canada: 2%
South Korea: 1.8%
Australia: 1.6%

Rest of world: 25%.

But sure, let's ignore the US, EU, China, Japan, India and Brazil -- total 72% of the rest of the world, and concentrate of the other 140 countries that make up 28% of our potential trading partners.

A shame, we used to have a great trade deal with 20% of the rest of the world, now we want to ignore than and aim at 4%.

 

[Howardh]

Most of which are poor as dirt and aren't going to be buying whatever it is we sell.

The list of trading areas by %age GDP

USA: 24%
EU (no UK): 19%
China: 15%
Japan: 6%
UK: 4%
India: 3%
Brazil: 2%
Canada: 2%
South Korea: 1.8%
Australia: 1.6%

Rest of world: 25%.

But sure, let's ignore the US, EU, China, Japan, India and Brazil -- total 72% of the rest of the world, and concentrate of the other 140 countries that make up 28% of our potential trading partners.

A shame, we used to have a great trade deal with 20% of the rest of the world, now we want to ignore than and aim at 4%.

Exactly. I keep hearing we can trade more with India. I know some of the population are extremely rich, even 0.001% of such a vast population is something, but other than that, what is the average amount, converted to £'s, than an Indian gets as a wage and what's left that s/he can spend?

Basically, if we want to sell them £400 bicycles, how many years would they have to work to afford one? And if they could, wouldn't they just buy one for half that from China?

Is the answer to reduce our wages so we can compete with China?

 

[dosxuk]

Is the answer to reduce our wages so we can compete with China?

NO! We need to increase our wages so we can buy more Xboxes and iPhones.

Then we can put the prices up of the goods we sell abroad so that johnny foreigner foots the bill (of course, products sold into the UK should be reduced in price as we're all too poor to afford the current prices).

 

[furnessvale]

Most of which are poor as dirt and aren't going to be buying whatever it is we sell.

A good percentage of the EU population fit into that category as well. That is until our EU masters have pumped enough money into them to bring them "up" to our level.

 

[TheKnightWho]

World population 7.3bn.

Go figure.

Still arguing we can't trade with the rest of the world if we're in the EU?

Do you realise that that's completely wrong, or are you just lying?

 

[furnessvale]

deleted

 

[radamfi]

A good percentage of the EU population fit into that category as well. That is until our EU masters have pumped enough money into them to bring them "up" to our level.

You see this as a bad thing? I see reducing the disparity between regions on our continent as a one of the best aims of the EU. In particular, central and eastern Europe were very unlucky to be on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain for so many years. If they weren't lumbered with communism for decades through no fault of their own, they would surely be as wealthy as western European countries. So I see the eastern expansion of the EU and the EU's regional policy as putting that right.

 

[AlterEgo]

It's actually possible to still get a blue UK passport.
You just have to be a refugee.
https://societyandspace.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/rq6a1440.jpg

It's not a passport though.

 

[EM2]

It's not a passport though.

The Home Office says it is:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/264773/hotraveldocs.pdf

2. There are three types of travel document currently in use:
• Stateless documents (red, formerly pink)
...
• Certificates of Identity (brown) which are issued to persons who have been
refused a passport by their own authorities.
...
• Refugee passports (blue) which are issued to persons who are recognised as
refugees under the 1951 UN Convention on the Status of Refugees.
...

 

[AlterEgo]

It's definitely an error. It should read "travel document", which is something similar but still different.

https://www.gov.uk/apply-home-office-travel-document/overview

Refugees are not citizens of the UK and therefore do not get a passport. I know someone who works at the HO so I'll feed it back.

 

[Howardh]

Word from the Guardian and Indy is that May might be able to negotiate a FoM deal meaning EU citizens get "preferential treatment", and if anyone knows how that would work please inform!
Presumably when work's available we get first pick, then EU, then everyone else?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Presumably when work's available we get first pick, then EU, then everyone else?

Well it could mean anything, from full freedom of movement (Norway, Switzerland) to meaning a work permit will only be given if no UK applicants can do the job (Isle of Man) or having the current working regulations but with a lower points threshold for EU citizens.

The issue facing Brexit is that the trade deal won't be part of the Brexit deal. Whilst the article 50 negotiations only need a qualified majority, trade deals require unanimity, and certain Eastern European countries are already expressing their desire to make things difficult.