EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Gutfright]

I don't love it; my mother and my sister both were out of work at the time but you seem blasé about it. No worries about such stuff as it all worked eh... Price worth paying

So you would have preferred a scenario where the number of unemployed people remained at 1992 levels throughout the entire nineties then?

 

[WelshBluebird]

You do realise that there are lot more measurements to the economy than unemployment don't you? And a lot more effects of brexit? Some people have already lost their jobs just because of the way their vote went. Other people are having to totally re-evaluate their career paths or education. Even for those who haven't been affected yet, there are people who are worrying for their jobs - even if they don't lose them that is a horrible horrible situation to be in.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Nope.

Going to argue that a rise in unemployment of 1 percentage point over a period of five months, followed by years of falling unemployment is in any way, shape or form comparable to the Great Depression?

No-one is saying that the economy is going to never recover in any shape or form. What kind of a ridiculous metric is that?

I repeat: we recovered from the Great Depression, so was it a good thing?
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So you would have preferred a scenario where the number of unemployed people remained at 1992 levels throughout the entire nineties then?

Bit weird. I don't know why you love high unemployment so much, but each to their own I guess.

So if the crash hadn't happened unemployment levels would have remained at that level? What? Where do you get this wibble from?

This is confirmation bias in the extreme.

 

[Gutfright]

You do realise that there are lot more measurements to the economy than unemployment don't you? And a lot more effects of brexit? Some people have already lost their jobs just because of the way their vote went. Other people are having to totally re-evaluate their career paths or education. Even for those who haven't been affected yet, there are people who are worrying for their jobs - even if they don't lose them that is a horrible horrible situation to be in.

There's no doubt that this current period of uncertainty sucks balls in many different ways. The question is whether Britain should sacrifice her long-term prosperity just to avoid the temporary pain of readjustment?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

So you would have preferred a scenario where the number of unemployed people remained at 1992 levels throughout the entire nineties then?

Of course not and I never said or implied that. Naturally, any sane person would read what I said about my own family and draw that conclusion. I mean, really... :roll:

However, YOU seem incredibly relaxed that irrespective of what happens, the end justifies the means. A trite "if it's not hurting, it's not working" eh? Night, night, you compassionate soul

 

[WelshBluebird]

There's no doubt that this current period of uncertainty sucks balls in many different ways. The question is whether Britain should sacrifice her long-term prosperity just to avoid the temporary pain of readjustment?

Easy for you to say when you are not directly impacted upon by it.
Much more difficult to say when many of your close friends are directly very negatively affected.

And of course, you are assuming that you can read the future and know for sure that we will be better off out in the future. You cannot know that at all. All we know is that right now, because of the uncertainty that has been caused, a large number of people are worse off. That is literally all we know.

 

[Gutfright]

I repeat: we recovered from the Great Depression, so was it a good thing?

I repeat: Nope.

So if the crash hadn't happened unemployment levels would have remained at that level?

Think of it as a thought experiment. After BW unemployment rose by 1 percentage point over five months, but then the economy recovered stronger than before and unemployment fell for many years to a level much lower than it was.

Would it have been better if unemployment had remained where it was (ie not gone up for five months, but not fallen either)?

 

[TheKnightWho]

There's no doubt that this current period of uncertainty sucks balls in many different ways. The question is whether Britain should sacrifice her long-term prosperity just to avoid the temporary pain of readjustment?

Where has your confidence in long-term prosperity come from?

 

[Gutfright]

Easy for you to say when you are not directly impacted upon by it.
Much more difficult to say when many of your close friends are directly very negatively affected.

I was only asking a question: should Britain sacrifice her long-term prosperity just to avoid the temporary pain of readjustment?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Think of it as a thought experiment. After BW unemployment rose by 1 percentage point over five months, but then the economy recovered stronger than before and unemployment fell for many years to a level much lower than it was.

Would it have been better if unemployment had remained where it was (ie not gone up for five months, but not fallen either)?

This only works as a thought experiment if there's only one variable with dichotomous results. Neither of those things hold.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I was only asking a question: should Britain sacrifice her long-term prosperity just to avoid the temporary pain of readjustment?

I'll reply with a similar question: should Britain sacrifice her long-term prosperity and stability on a whim, on an off chance, that we will be better off? There is literally no way you can know we will be better off in the long term. So please stop trying to act like you know that as a fact. You do not. Nobody does.

 

[Gutfright]

I'll reply with a similar question: should Britain sacrifice her long-term prosperity and stability on a whim, on an off chance, that we will be better off? There is literally no way you can know we will be better off in the long term. So please stop trying to act like you know that as a fact. You do not. Nobody does.

This only works as a thought experiment if there's only one variable with dichotomous results. Neither of those things hold.

Ok, try this "what if" scenario instead:

You're feeling like crud so you go to the doctors. She runs a few tests and tells you that you have a little bit of cancer. If you leave it untreated you'll probably be able to survive for a long time, but you'll continue to feel like crud for the rest of your life.

The treatment for it is chemotherapy. Chemo sucks big time and will make you feel terrible while you undergo treatment, but there is a chance (no guarantees) that it will make you stop feeling like crud afterwards.

Do you take the chemo?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Ok, try this "what if" scenario instead:

You're feeling like crud so you go to the doctors. She runs a few tests and tells you that you have a little bit of cancer. If you leave it untreated you'll probably be able to survive for a long time, but you'll continue to feel like crud for the rest of your life.

The treatment for it is chemotherapy. Chemo sucks big time and will make you feel terrible while you undergo treatment, but there is a chance (no guarantees) that it will make you stop feeling like crud afterwards.

Do you take the chemo?

Yes, I understand the analogy you're making. I'm not stupid.

I'm saying that Black Wednesday doesn't fit it, and that the premise of it is highly questionable since you seem convinced Brexit will be a net positive - on what grounds?

 

[Gutfright]

Yes, I understand the analogy you're making. I'm not stupid.

I'm saying that Black Wednesday doesn't fit it, and that the premise of it is highly questionable since you seem convinced Brexit will be a net positive - on what grounds?

The question wasn't about Black Wednesday or Brexit. It was just a perfectly innocent question about cancer...

 

[WelshBluebird]

Ok, try this "what if" scenario instead:

You're feeling like crud so you go to the doctors. She runs a few tests and tells you that you have a little bit of cancer. If you leave it untreated you'll probably be able to survive for a long time, but you'll continue to feel like crud for the rest of your life.

The treatment for it is chemotherapy. Chemo sucks big time and will make you feel terrible while you undergo treatment, but there is a chance (no guarantees) that it will make you stop feeling like crud afterwards.

Do you take the chemo?

Big flashing neon sign difference there.
Cancer is a bad thing. We know this. Everyone agrees and we have historical actual hard evidence for it.

You cannot make the same assertion for the EU.

Infact if you want to use your really inappropriate and poorly designed analogy for it, then you probably need to change "a doctor tells you that you have cancer" to "The guy down the pub said he thinks you have cancer". Do you take the chemo? (remember in the actual referendum the leave side said that we had heard enough from experts - doctors in your analogy).

 

[Harbornite]

Bringing cancer into this suggests grasping at straws. Good thing the opinions of the brexiters are irrelevant (as are those of the remainers) and that they don't hold positions of power.

 

[Gutfright]

Bringing cancer into this suggests grasping at straws.

Replace cancer with another affliction if you want. AIDS maybe?

I just wanted to establish whether people here believe that the ends can justify the means, but the remainers here are cagey to say the least. Guess I'll never know.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I just wanted to establish whether people here believe that the ends can justify the means, but the remainers here are cagey to say the least. Guess I'll never know.

The question is very hard to answer without context. There are some situations in which the ends may justify the means, and others in which I'd say it wouldn't.

If the context is: Would it be justified to have a couple of years of recession if that would lead to permanent greater prosperity for everyone, then I'd say that yes, that probably would be justified. However, that's not the situation with Brexit. With Brexit, the overwhelming consensus amongst economists appears to be more like, a period of recession, and then even after we've recovered, GDP will still be lower than if we'd just stayed in the EU all along.

Making yourself sick for a year or two in order get slightly worse health afterwards than if you just hadn't bothered is very obviously unwise.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Replace cancer with another affliction if you want. AIDS maybe?

I just wanted to establish whether people here believe that the ends can justify the means, but the remainers here are cagey to say the least. Guess I'll never know.

You keep missing the point. People dispute that the ends you keep banging on about are actually positive or achievable.

No-one doesn't understand your analogy. Stop assuming we're stupid and think about what we're saying.

 

[Harbornite]

Replace cancer with another affliction if you want. AIDS maybe?

I just wanted to establish whether people here believe that the ends can justify the means, but the remainers here are cagey to say the least. Guess I'll never know.

No afflictions are relevant. Think about this in economic terms.
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Make of this what you will..

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to the end of June, as economic growth accelerated in the run-up to the vote to leave the EU.
Second-quarter gross domestic product grew faster than expected, up from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said.
Any uncertainty ahead of last month's referendum seemed "limited", ONS said.

However, by far the strongest growth was in April, followed by a sharp easing off in May and June.

On a yearly basis the economy grew by a healthy 2.2%.
The pick-up in economic activity was boosted by the biggest upturn in industrial output since 1999, particularly from car factories and pharmaceutical firms.

ONS chief economist Joe Grice said the industrial gains were reinforced by "strong growth across the services sector, particularly retailing".
"Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect," he said. "Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses."
Economists, including those at the Bank of England, had estimated second-quarter growth would be about 0.5%.

Chancellor Philip Hammond said the better-than-expected figures showed the fundamentals of the UK economy were "strong".

"It is clear we enter our negotiations to leave the EU from a position of economic strength," Mr Hammond said.

But John McDonnell, Labour's shadow chancellor, said the figures bore little relation to workers' economic position: "Today's GDP figures provide a stark contrast with the grim news on real earnings which remain 10% below their 2007 level.

"The Tories' failed austerity policy has produced a lost decade for earnings with ordinary households experiencing the worst decline in living standards in living memory."

Industrial output, including manufacturing, grew by 2.1% in the quarter. The services sector, the largest part of the UK economy, grew 0.5%, while construction and agriculture fell 0.4% and 1% respectively.

In April industrial production jumped 2.1% month-on-month, but then dropped 0.5% in May and rose only 0.2% in June.
Services also started the quarter strongly, rising 0.6% in April, before dropping 0.1% in May and growing only 0.1% in June.


Analysts and business groups warned against using the second-quarter figures - which only included estimates of one week following the 23 June referendum - to measure the impact of the Brexit result.

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown said: "It's always difficult to tell where you're going by looking in the rear-view mirror, and as such today's GDP figures can't be taken as evidence of the current climate.
"However, what they do show is an absence of pre-Brexit concerns, meaning that if the forecast downturn does materialise, at least we start from a position of relative strength."

A snapshot of the economy in the weeks after the referendum, from the closely-watched Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), suggested there had been a sharp fall in economic activity following the Leave vote.

The British Chambers of Commerce said it was "far too soon to draw firm conclusions" about the UK's future growth prospects.

"The significant contribution made by the manufacturing sector is particularly encouraging, but the improvements were from a low base, and the UK economy remains reliant on the service sector to drive growth," the BCC said.

Here's my favourite bit...

The economy seems to be heading towards a "significant deterioration" in the second half of 2016, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Connor Campbell, an analyst at Spreadex, agreed, saying: "Just because predictions of a slowdown pre-referendum appear to have been false, last week's early glimpse at the Markit PMIs shows that the post-Brexit impact is in no way a bogeyman conjured by bitter Vote Remainers."

The ONS figures are the first calculation of second-quarter economic activity and are based on less than half the data that will give the eventual figure.
The best quality data covers the earliest part of the quarter, but June's figures are based largely on forecasts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903164

At least we have taken our country back from those pesky experts! On a serious note, this will be a good wake-up call for British industry and the EU's border controls do need reassessing.

 

[TheKnightWho]

No afflictions are relevant. Think about this in economic terms.
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Make of this what you will..



Here's my favourite bit...




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903164

At least we have taken our country back from those pesky experts! On a serious note, this will be a good wake-up call for British industry and the EU's border controls do need reassessing.

You seem to be thinking of it in terms of "growth" or "recession" instead of "what is our net growth going to be?"

I know you're desperate to either get some good news or to show it would have been bad anyway, but unfortunately economics is a little more sophisticated than you seem to think...

 

[Harbornite]

You seem to be thinking of it in terms of "growth" or "recession" instead of "what is our net growth going to be?"

I know you're desperate to either get some good news or to show it would have been bad anyway, but unfortunately economics is a little more sophisticated than you seem to think...

I was being slightly sarcastic in my post, I did vote to remain but I think we need to be positive about the future. I don't see how you can get such a grasp of my level of understanding of economics just from this post, in which I quoted a BCC article and didn't attempt to analyse it thoroughly or anything. I am aware of the implications of brexit, thank you very much, and that higher levels of economic growth are a good thing. Anyway, where in that post did I say that Brexit was good for the economy?

:roll:


At the end of the day, we voted out as a country and we can't go back on this, so we will have to make the best of what there is. Although the economy will suffer as a result, we should be as positive as we can about it. Staying in the EU could well have been better as it is in need of reform and if we had voted to remain, we could have influenced this reform. I'm afraid we are at where we're at.

 

[Mutant Lemming]

I'll reply with a similar question: should Britain sacrifice her long-term prosperity and stability on a whim, on an off chance, that we will be better off? There is literally no way you can know we will be better off in the long term. So please stop trying to act like you know that as a fact. You do not. Nobody does.

As opposed to the whim of a rogue trader who decides to break the market ? This goes deeper than threats by the economists - there is a basic underlying freedom to self determination which is constantly being eroded by Brussels.

 

[TheKnightWho]

As opposed to the whim of a rogue trader who decides to break the market ? This goes deeper than threats by the economists - there is a basic underlying freedom to self determination which is constantly being eroded by Brussels.

Freedom of determination of whom? The British people? Could we even say what an ordinary British person actually is? I'm all for national identity, but it's not separated off from being part of Europe. I have a strong inkling that "British identity" is always curiously similar to the identity of whoever is talking about it. Would you be in favour of Scottish independence, as their autonomy is being eroded? Welsh? Yorkshire? Why is this particular geographical arrangement so important to you, despite itself containing numerous identities. Linked by what?

In addition to that, more control over what? What, precisely, do we have the power to do that we didn't before? If independence were always the way forward to freedom, why not total anarchy? The idea that the British government has no say in what the EU does, or that we somehow have more power over our affairs now that we have no influence over our largest trading partner are both wrong, and it's naive to think that we somehow gain more autonomy because we can overfish the North Sea or ignore environmental commitments. Power is a complicated game, and damage to the economy hurts our autonomy far more than any apparently constricting regulations ever could.

There are serious incoherences that people take for granted with Brexit that both fail to understand the national identities of many young people, and have a dangerously over-simplistic idea of what Brexit actually gives us the power to do. And your talk of "threats by economists" are absurd - what are they threatening to do? That's like saying you're being threatened by your thermometer because it says it's -20 outside. The constant self-victimhood never fails to stun me...

 

[Harbornite]

Freedom of determination of whom? The British people? Could we even say what an ordinary British person actually is? I'm all for national identity, but it's not separated off from being part of Europe. I have a strong inkling that "British identity" is always curiously similar to the identity of whoever is talking about it. Would you be in favour of Scottish independence, as their autonomy is being eroded? Welsh? Yorkshire? Why is this particular geographical arrangement so important to you, despite itself containing numerous identities. Linked by what?

In addition to that, more control over what? What, precisely, do we have the power to do that we didn't before? If independence were always the way forward to freedom, why not total anarchy? The idea that the British government has no say in what the EU does, or that we somehow have more power over our affairs now that we have no influence over our largest trading partner are both wrong, and it's naive to think that we somehow gain more autonomy because we can overfish the North Sea or ignore environmental commitments. Power is a complicated game, and damage to the economy hurts our autonomy far more than any apparently constricting regulations ever could.

There are serious incoherences that people take for granted with Brexit that both fail to understand the national identities of many young people, and have a dangerously over-simplistic idea of what Brexit actually gives us the power to do. And your talk of "threats by economists" are absurd - what are they threatening to do? That's like saying you're being threatened by your thermometer because it says it's -20 outside. The constant self-victimhood never fails to stun me...

Did you read my comments? I'm not really sure what points you were trying to make, you were responding to something I hadn't really said.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Did you read my comments? I'm not really sure what points you were trying to make, you were responding to something I hadn't really said.

I had misread what you said. Apologies.

 

[Harbornite]

I had misread what you said. Apologies.

That's ok.
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McDonalds want to create 5000 jobs here by the end of the year. At least they haven't turned their back on us.

 

[radamfi]

I would have thought that most businesses are expecting the UK to remain part of the single market, so wouldn't worry unduly and therefore would proceed more or less as normal.

 

[Antman]

That's ok.
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McDonalds want to create 5000 jobs here by the end of the year. At least they haven't turned their back on us.

Mores the pity:cry:

 

[Groningen]

McDonalds want to create 5000 jobs here by the end of the year. At least they haven't turned their back on us.

What kind of connection is there with the referendum? None maybe.