EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[nlogax]

I was just trying to be more constructive than, 'Its all crap, Boris is a tosser, leavers won't take responsibility'

Hah, in my more tired moments this is the line I still want to occasionally yell at some Leavers. Have to bite my own tongue and remember that it's not that simple when viewed from the Remain perspective too..

 

[Groningen]

Theresa May lighting up her speech with music from Abba (Dancing Queen). Well; lets hope for her that she is still dancing in April 2019.

 

[YorkshireBear]

The conference just shows that the party is still massively divided. More meaningless phrases used "Brighter Days Ahead" Oh yeah how? Prove it. Do something.

Moving away from Brexit for just a second, what is has successfully achieved is that the government has received pretty much xero scrutiny on every other important domestic topic since the vote because Brexit has taken up everyone's time.

 

[fowler9]

Theresa May lighting up her speech with music from Abba (Dancing Queen). Well; lets hope for her that she is still dancing in April 2019.

Dancing through a field of wheat no doubt.

 

[Geezertronic]

Theresa May lighting up her speech with music from Abba (Dancing Queen). Well; lets hope for her that she is still dancing in April 2019.

Personally I think that Nu Labour and "Things can only get better" was the worst cringy one

 

[fowler9]

Personally I think that Nu Labour and "Things can only get better" was the worst cringy one

At least Brian Cox had a brain.

 

[Clip]

The conference just shows that the party is still massively divided. More meaningless phrases used "Brighter Days Ahead" Oh yeah how? Prove it. Do something.

Ahead means in the future so as we are not in that future yet how can she do something if its in the future

At least Brian Cox had a brain.

Was he in New Labour ?

PPS - I also didnt realise he was dead yet

 

[bramling]

Personally I think that Nu Labour and "Things can only get better" was the worst cringy one

Cringe or otherwise, like many Blair-era PR initiatives it did work rather well - for a while anyway.

Whilst I utterly despise Blair for presiding over governments which did a lot of lasting damage to this country, I do have a small amount of respect for him for at least having an understanding of how to catch the public mood and win elections.

 

[muddythefish]

Cringe or otherwise, like many Blair-era PR initiatives it did work rather well - for a while anyway.

Whilst I utterly despise Blair for presiding over governments which did a lot of lasting damage to this country, I do have a small amount of respect for him for at least having an understanding of how to catch the public mood and win elections.

Funny that, I hate the Cameron and May governments for embarking on a Brexit fiasco that is already doing lasting damage to this country and is likely to see it further diminished in the years ahead. I don't have any respect for either of them, particulalrly Cameron who should be locked up in the tower for asking the country to sort out what is essentially Tory party problem and the wreckless FPTP binary way the referendum was conducted.

 

[muddythefish]

Meanwhile I certainly don't feel worse off as a result of Brexit. Less interest on my savings each month for a while, but that's all.

Meanwhile I'm already seeing benefits - EU immigration has reduced for a start, doubtlessly with more to come in that area.

Unless you live in a cubby hole and never come out, you are much worse off. I presume you consume goods, such as food and clothing etc? all of which are more expensive since June 2016 because of the fall in the pound and subsequent rise in inflation.

Some of the businesses and services that depend of migrant labour - such as social care, nursing, food production - have been very badly affected. But as long as you're OK and the old and the sick are worse off that's fine.

 

[fowler9]

I'm not sure all the European countries would agree with that analysis. Some pretty uninspiring unemployment figures in many EU countries for example, e.g. Greece, Spain, Italy, and even France. I wouldn't say that is "working perfectly well".

Meanwhile I certainly don't feel worse off as a result of Brexit. Less interest on my savings each month for a while, but that's all.

Yes of course I'm concerned about turning out backs on the EU trading bloc. However I'm also concerned about numerous other things, which for me have greater salience.

Meanwhile I'm already seeing benefits - EU immigration has reduced for a start, doubtlessly with more to come in that area.

I am intrigued as to how a reduction in EU immigration has already benefitted you?

 

[bramling]

Unless you live in a cubby hole and never come out, you are much worse off. I presume you consume goods, such as food and clothing etc? all of which are more expensive since June 2016 because of the fall in the pound and subsequent rise in inflation.

I can't say I've noticed a change at all, in all honesty. The goods and services I buy on a monthly basis are roughly the same as they were three years ago - which allowing for the fact that any healthy economy runs with a small amount of inflation each year means I've actually done quite well. In any event my income has risen in line with inflation, which contributes towards offsetting any increase. Meanwhile I'm still saving the same amount per month that I generally always did.

*If* statistically I am worse off, I'm certainly not feeling it - which means it's not by much.

Some of the businesses and services that depend of migrant labour - such as social care, nursing, food production - have been very badly affected. But as long as you're OK and the old and the sick are worse off that's fine.

So businesses relying on cheap migrant labour because people don't want to pay a decent wage? I certainly don't regard that as fine, and I've already stated on here that I'd be happy to pay more for goods or services if it means people are paid a decent wage, and especially if it means we can reduce the taxpayer burden of unemployment benefits.

 

[bramling]

I am intrigued as to how a reduction in EU immigration has already benefitted you?

Anything contributing towards a reduction in the level of population growth is, as far as I'm concerned, a good thing. Unchecked population growth is having a major negative impact especially in certain parts of the country, for example impact on public services, congestion, housing, utilities, transport, living standards to name a few negatives which immediately spring to mind.

 

[Ianno87]

So businesses relying on cheap migrant labour because people don't want to pay a decent wage? I certainly don't regard that as fine, and I've already stated on here that I'd be happy to pay more for goods or services if it means people are paid a decent wage, and especially if it means we can reduce the taxpayer burden of unemployment benefits.

Whoa whoa whoa!
You've randomly thrown in the word 'cheap' of your own accord there....

The areas listed (e.g. nursing) are skilled and anything but 'cheap'.

 

[bramling]

Whoa whoa whoa!
You've randomly thrown in the word 'cheap' of your own accord there....

The areas listed (e.g. nursing) are skilled and anything but 'cheap'.

If this is the case why is there a shortage?

 

[Ianno87]

If this is the case why is there a shortage?

Shortage of what, nurses?

Sorry, you've lost me. If we're short of (say) nurses, how is stopping migrants coming over to work as, say, nurses going to help with that?

 

[muddythefish]

So businesses relying on cheap migrant labour because people don't want to pay a decent wage? I certainly don't regard that as fine, and I've already stated on here that I'd be happy to pay more for goods or services if it means people are paid a decent wage, and especially if it means we can reduce the taxpayer burden of unemployment benefits.

They rely on workers - and the country doesn't have enough of them. Their wages are irrelevant, irrespective of which numerous studies have shown there is little or no link between immigration and low wages. Low wages are a result of neo-liberal policies over the decades aimed at reducing worker power (trade unions) - nothing at all to with the EU.

 

[bramling]

Shortage of what, nurses?

Sorry, you've lost me. If we're short of (say) nurses, how is stopping migrants coming over to work as, say, nurses going to help with that?

The point I was trying to make is that if there's a "shortage" of workers in a particular area, then the first way to try and address that is to increase the wage rate. All other things being equal this should then attract people to the role.

The other way is of course to find a way of increasing supply, one of which is of course to try to attract foreign labour. Increasing supply allows the equilibrium wage to remain the same, i.e. a downward pressure on what the market wage would otherwise be.

 

[bramling]

They rely on workers - and the country doesn't have enough of them. Their wages are irrelevant, irrespective of which numerous studies have shown there is little or no link between immigration and low wages. Low wages are a result of neo-liberal policies over the decades aimed at reducing worker power (trade unions) - nothing at all to with the EU.

In a free market the impact of trade unions are irrelevant - they're simply a distortion in the labour market (one can make a case either way for whether we regard that as a good thing or not, but either way that's a personal judgement). But simple economics is that if you increase the supply of something then the price goes down, and wages are no different to anything else. Therefore unless something else is going on, immigration cannot not have had a downward pressure on wages - particularly in areas lacking in other entry barriers (e.g. requiring good grasp of English, certain qualifications, specific past work experience, et cetera).

 

[bramling]

Moving away from Brexit for just a second, what is has successfully achieved is that the government has received pretty much xero scrutiny on every other important domestic topic since the vote because Brexit has taken up everyone's time.

It really doesn't help that Corbyn / Labour have chosen to treat Brexit as a party-political issue.

Even from the perspective of someone who leans very heavily towards leaving, I will be pleased once things have settled down.

 

[muddythefish]

In a free market the impact of trade unions are irrelevant - they're simply a distortion in the labour market (one can make a case either way for whether we regard that as a good thing or not, but either way that's a personal judgement). But simple economics is that if you increase the supply of something then the price goes down, and wages are no different to anything else. Therefore unless something else is going on, immigration cannot not have had a downward pressure on wages - particularly in areas lacking in other entry barriers (e.g. requiring good grasp of English, certain qualifications, specific past work experience, et cetera).

The Migration Observatory think-tank says although the question is nuanced: "UK research suggests that immigration has a small impact on average wages of existing workers"....

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/

Many others have come to the same conclusion.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...n-depresses-wages-because-it-doesnt-f8n0prlb6

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ry-fallacy-migrants-british-jobs-wages-brexit

 

[bnm]

Not forgetting that migrants are net contributors to the economy. Paying more in taxation than they 'take' from public services.

So, no real evidence that migrants depress wages and no real evidence that they are a drain of public services.

That really only leaves xenophobia and racism as arguments for stopping them coming to work here or sending those already here back home.

 

[AlterEgo]

Not forgetting that migrants are net contributors to the economy. Paying more in taxation than they 'take' from public services.

So, no real evidence that migrants depress wages and no real evidence that they are a drain of public services.

That really only leaves xenophobia and racism as arguments for stopping them coming to work here or sending those already here back home.

Do those figures assume migrants live as long as the settled population, and stay here until they’re dead from old age?

Or do they assume a migrant comes at the peak of their economically active life and leave before they become a net drain?

Should the impact of someone on a society be measured solely in financial terms on a graph? Is that really the only benchmark you’re prepared to entertain?

 

[SteveP29]

We have a small and diminishing say in the EU

We, along with Germany and France have the most say in what happens in the EU regarding laws and directives.

do you really think any other country in the world would be so stubborn

The UK want to leave, if anything, it should be the EU that demand things from us, which they have, an amount of money to fulfill contracts and liabilities that the UK government has already signed up to.
All I've seen throughout the so called negotiations for the past 18 months is the UK demanding this, that and the other

So businesses relying on cheap migrant labour because people don't want to pay a decent wage?

Then blame the UK government for encouraging businesses and indeed allowing them to pay such small wages.

Anything contributing towards a reduction in the level of population growth is, as far as I'm concerned, a good thing.

Time and time again though, it's been shown that there are more migrants to the UK from non EU countries, that won't change because we leave the EU.
Surely the UK government should have used the powers they've had since 2004 to control EU immigration but chose not to.

The point I was trying to make is that if there's a "shortage" of workers in a particular area, then the first way to try and address that is to increase the wage rate. All other things being equal this should then attract people to the role.

And what if the supply simply isn't there? How long do we wait until we have trained enough people to do these jobs?
Just because you increase the wage rate, it doesn't mean to say you'll automatically get the ideal candidates filling every available role.

 

[underbank]

The point I was trying to make is that if there's a "shortage" of workers in a particular area, then the first way to try and address that is to increase the wage rate. All other things being equal this should then attract people to the role.

Not that simple. Lots of jobs require training/qualifications/experience. You need to increase the numbers of training places to provide the supply. No point in increasing demand by raising wages if you havn't increased the supply too. Even with the alleged low pay and poor conditions, training places for nurses, doctors and teachers remain over-subscribed, so increasing wages won't actually help unless it's part of a long term plan also including large increases in training places.

 

[dosxuk]

That really only leaves xenophobia and racism as arguments for stopping them coming to work here or sending those already here back home.

That would be the case in a fully informed society, which the UK isn't, and in fact it was a key tenant of the leave campaign to ignore facts and figures and go with gut instinct instead. The experts might be saying that immigrants overall benefit the country, but to the man on the street who's been made redundant and can't find a job but sees all these people coming over and going straight into work is not going to see that. He doesn't need to be racist or xenophobic to think like that, it's just personal scale vs national scale.

Now, if you looked into the situation more, you might see the guy can't get work because his skills are outdated and he's unwilling to retrain, and that the immigrants are actually just doing menial labour work that he wouldn't be interested in doing anyway, but from his perspective, they can find work and he can't and that must be true fault.

 

[sprunt]

Should the impact of someone on a society be measured solely in financial terms on a graph? Is that really the only benchmark you’re prepared to entertain?

It was people arguing against migration that raised the financial arguments; it's entirely reasonable to cite studies to counter that. But you're correct that there are benefits other than financial ones to migration.

 

[AlterEgo]

It was people arguing against migration that raised the financial arguments; it's entirely reasonable to cite studies to counter that. But you're correct that there are benefits other than financial ones to migration.

Migration or immigration is a complex issue. Boiling it down to just “well they pay more in than they take” and suggesting anyone who then has a problem with it is a racist or xenophobe is at best completely facile, and at worst bigoted.

Migration is a fact of life and has gone one since literally the dawn of humanity, so I think the issue deserves a little more in-depth appreciation than that.

The complete lack of informed or respectful debate around immigration is a key reason Leave won.

 

[sprunt]

Informed and respectful debate about immigration there.

 

[AlterEgo]

Informed and respectful debate about immigration there.

Ten whataboutery points for that one.