EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[radamfi]

Here's a snippet of life outside the customs union. I'm getting something forwarded from Germany using a forwarding service, and here are the postage prices charged by UPS:

https://www.mailboxde.com/united-kingdom.html#ups

To send a 10 kg parcel from Germany by UPS to other EU countries it costs between 13.49 and 18.01 euros depending on distance. To Switzerland and Norway, inside the single market but outside the customs union, it costs 29.72. It costs more than twice as much to send to Switzerland, a country bordering Germany, than to the UK.

 

[nlogax]

But where does that get us given that the Tories now seem dead set on sticking to their hard Brexit and making the issue a vote-of-confidence matter in the Commons.

The matter of the (or a) Customs Union is where the rubber meets the road, really the logical culmination of all Tory EU-related infighting since the days of Major and Thatcher. Voting to leave the EU was one thing, but that future trading arrangement is key to our financial future. Whatever decision is made, I can't imagine there'll be more potent and and highly charged political drama than what we're about to see in coming months.

 

[AlterEgo]

Here's a snippet of life outside the customs union. I'm getting something forwarded from Germany using a forwarding service, and here are the postage prices charged by UPS:

https://www.mailboxde.com/united-kingdom.html#ups

To send a 10 kg parcel from Germany by UPS to other EU countries it costs between 13.49 and 18.01 euros depending on distance. To Switzerland and Norway, inside the single market but outside the customs union, it costs 29.72. It costs more than twice as much to send to Switzerland, a country bordering Germany, than to the UK.

Sounds terrible, I bet this means Switzerland has a really low quality of life, is a miserable place and its citizens all hate each other.

 

[Jonny]

The matter of the (or a) Customs Union is where the rubber meets the road, really the logical culmination of all Tory EU-related infighting since the days of Major and Thatcher. Voting to leave the EU was one thing, but that future trading arrangement is key to our financial future. Whatever decision is made, I can't imagine there'll be more potent and and highly charged political drama than what we're about to see in coming months.

It's also an issue that being part of the customs union precludes negotiating tariff-free trade deals with the rest of the world, and makes the Freeport concept (duty is suspended on imported goods to be used to make export goods, waived upon export) viable whereas at present it is all but impossible for the UK to have such things.

 

[Senex]

Theresa May's agreement with the DUP demonstrated she doesn't care what happens in Northern Ireland or how much money gets sent to Northern Ireland as long as she gets her policies voted through in Westminster. While Ms Foster blames Sinn Fein for power sharing talks collapsing in Northern Ireland because of their financial demands - the irony!

There's something deeply unsatisfactory about the fact that Northern Ireland voted to remain, but May's Brexiteers can press on as they are doing only because of the support of the deeply unattractive DUP.

 

[cactustwirly]

It's also an issue that being part of the customs union precludes negotiating tariff-free trade deals with the rest of the world, and makes the Freeport concept (duty is suspended on imported goods to be used to make export goods, waived upon export) viable whereas at present it is all but impossible for the UK to have such things.

How else would you solve the Irish border, without the Customs Union?

 

[EM2]

...makes the Freeport concept (duty is suspended on imported goods to be used to make export goods, waived upon export) viable whereas at present it is all but impossible for the UK to have such things.

Even though there are already five free trade zones in the UK

 

[fowler9]

On a slightly lighter note I was entertained today by seeing the Guardian asking Jurgen Klopp for his views on Brexit. Ha ha. I like Klopp and am a Remainer but it seemed weird to see it as a separate article to their interview with Klopp. Perhaps it is a series of articles asking football managers for their opinions.

 

[AlterEgo]

There's something deeply unsatisfactory about the fact that Northern Ireland voted to remain, but May's Brexiteers can press on as they are doing only because of the support of the deeply unattractive DUP.

It’s unsatisfactory that a constituent province of the UK has the same deal as everyone else? It can’t stay in the EU if Britain leaves.

Irish unity would need to occur to enable the people of Northern Ireland to remain.

 

[EM2]

It’s unsatisfactory that a constituent province of the UK has the same deal as everyone else? It can’t stay in the EU if Britain leaves.

Then there has to be a border.

 

[fowler9]

The border in Ireland is a massive sticking point. If the Brexiteers want us to fully separate the UK from the EU then there really is no other way than a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. This isn't simply the EU being awkward either, it is the UK living in a fantasy realm.

 

[Jonny]

There's something deeply unsatisfactory about the fact that Northern Ireland voted to remain, but May's Brexiteers can press on as they are doing only because of the support of the deeply unattractive DUP.

How else would you solve the Irish border, without the Customs Union?

The irony is that some areas of Northern Ireland did vote for Brexit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resul..._membership_referendum,_2016#Northern_Ireland
(backup http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36616830 - Newry & Armagh represents the final result)
and those areas happened to vote for the DUP in the 2017 election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(Northern_Ireland)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/northern_ireland

Then there has to be a border.

The DUP will probably be able to pull off a hard border (at least with their own electorate), bearing in mind that they are propping up the Conservative government and that it is probably their voters who make up NI's Brexit vote. Bear in mind that the DUP and its leader, the late Ian Paisley (father of a current DUP MP of the same name) also opposed Britain entering the then EEC in the first place.

Also, MI5 will have little else to do come 2019 so the criminal elements of Irish Nationalism will likely be unable to do much if any damage.

 

[fowler9]

The irony is that some areas of Northern Ireland did vote for Brexit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resul..._membership_referendum,_2016#Northern_Ireland
(backup http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36616830 - Newry & Armagh represents the final result)
and those areas happened to vote for the DUP in the 2017 election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(Northern_Ireland)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/northern_ireland



The DUP will probably be able to pull off a hard border (at least with their own electorate), bearing in mind that they are propping up the Conservative government and that it is probably their voters who make up NI's Brexit vote. Bear in mind that the DUP and its leader, the late Ian Paisley (father of a current DUP MP of the same name) also opposed Britain entering the then EEC in the first place.

Also, MI5 will have little else to do come 2019 so the criminal elements of Irish Nationalism will likely be unable to do much if any damage.

Are you serious! "likely be unable to do much if any damage"! How old are you? Why will MI5 have little else to do?

 

[Jonny]

Are you serious! "likely be unable to do much if any damage"! How old are you? Why will MI5 have little else to do?

Islamic state are on the wane and any new cold war is unlikely to be conventional in terms of espionage. So, what else are MI5 going to have to do come 2019?

Besides we can't let relatively few Irish people dictate what happens in mainland UK.

 

[AlterEgo]

I wish people would stop talking about the Troubles coming back. It’s alarmist and shows a lack of understanding about why the last Troubles actually happened.

 

[cactustwirly]

I wish people would stop talking about the Troubles coming back. It’s alarmist and shows a lack of understanding about why the last Troubles actually happened.

But you misunderstand the situation in Ireland.
Although there's been a peace agreement for 20 years, the loyalists still hate the unionists and vice versa.
If you start reinstanting borders, it's a very slippery slope to walk down, which could create conflict between the two sides.

Anyway having a land border across Ireland would be very expensive, given the large number of border crossings that would need to be staffed.

 

[najaB]

I wish people would stop talking about the Troubles coming back.

Did they ever *really* go away? There are still peace walls in Belfast, etc.

 

[AlterEgo]

But you misunderstand the situation in Ireland.
Although there's been a peace agreement for 20 years, the loyalists still hate the unionists and vice versa.
If you start reinstanting borders, it's a very slippery slope to walk down, which could create conflict between the two sides.

I can assure you that I don’t misunderstand the situation in Ireland; not only is my family from there, but I have studied the 66-98 conflict extensively and been published several times.

Rather, you misunderstand the situation in Ireland. Firstly, loyalists and unionists are both on the same “side”, though they are indeed subtly different things (“loyalist” has the concept of violence or direct non-political action implicit, whereas “unionist” merely describes someone who wishes the Union to remain. The corresponding and equal terms on the “other side” are republican and nationalist respectively).

Could you tell me how the installation of a hard border will bring about Troubles MkII? If they brought border posts back you’d probably get a few attacks on them by dissident paramilitaries, but it would be extremely unlikely to descend into the civil conflict of the 66-98 Troubles. There has been low intensity activity by dissident paramilitary forces since the GFA, but we would not call this anything other than a recurring security problem. Almost none of the factors which were present in the mid to late 1960s which started mass civil conflict are present today.

Ireland is not a one dimensional problem and it is not as simple as “well if you do something the republicans don’t like there’ll be Troubles MkII”.

It is a lot more complex than that.

 

[AlterEgo]

Did they ever *really* go away? There are still peace walls in Belfast, etc.

Yes, the Troubles went away to be replaced by what we’d call, if it happened anywhere else, violence on estates plus coercive influence of criminal gangs.

The concept of physical force politics is a fringe pursuit in Northern Ireland and will remain so because of a number of reasons.

 

[northwichcat]

The irony is that some areas of Northern Ireland did vote for Brexit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resul..._membership_referendum,_2016#Northern_Ireland
(backup http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36616830 - Newry & Armagh represents the final result)
and those areas happened to vote for the DUP in the 2017 election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(Northern_Ireland)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/northern_ireland

The DUP will probably be able to pull off a hard border (at least with their own electorate), bearing in mind that they are propping up the Conservative government and that it is probably their voters who make up NI's Brexit vote. Bear in mind that the DUP and its leader, the late Ian Paisley (father of a current DUP MP of the same name) also opposed Britain entering the then EEC in the first place.

Also, MI5 will have little else to do come 2019 so the criminal elements of Irish Nationalism will likely be unable to do much if any damage.

How is it ironic that some areas of Northern Ireland did vote for Brexit? Unless you're suggesting those who want a united Ireland in the EU voted for Brexit, I fail to see any irony. No one's suggested almost everyone in Northern Ireland voted to remain, only that more want to remain than to leave.

What is ironic is many pro-UK voters in Northern Ireland vote DUP in General Elections, despite not agreeing with most of their policies. It seems some in Northern Ireland see a General Election as a vote as to whether they want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and a vote for DUP is a yes and a vote for Sinn Fein is a no. Anyone looking at voting trends for Northern Ireland who doesn't understand the political issue of the Irish border would think people from working class backgrounds in Northern Ireland are more right wing than Conservative votes in affluent areas of England and Scotland.

 

[northwichcat]

Yes, the Troubles went away to be replaced by what we’d call, if it happened anywhere else, violence on estates plus coercive influence of criminal gangs.

The concept of physical force politics is a fringe pursuit in Northern Ireland and will remain so because of a number of reasons.

As recently as last year BBC journalists had objects and verbal abuse thrown at them by protestants from council estates in Northern Ireland, apparently because they think the BBC is too pro-Irish because they reported what the protestants do on 'Eleventh Night' in a documentary. It seems the protestants want to set fire to Catholic symbols and Irish flags but don't want people in the rest of the UK to know that they do that. :roll:

 

[47802]

According to a newspaper poll 82% of those voted remain want to remain in the single market, as do 22% of those who voted for Brexit, which overall means more want to remain in the single market than leave.

Well I voted to remain, however I respect the result of the vote unlike it seems many politicians and remainers, staying in the single market I don't think would be in the spirit of the vote in my view, and is an unviable position for many effectively being in the EU in many respects but with very little influence, I think the customs union option is also difficult without the ability to negotiate trade deals, and I very much doubt the EU will go for the idea that Labour have of a customs union with influence on EU trade deals.

At the end the day we voted to leave that's what we should get on and do and get the best free trade deal possible.

 

[Bromley boy]

Well I voted to remain, however I respect the result of the vote unlike it seems many politicians and remainers, staying in the single market I don't think would be in the spirit of the vote in my view, and is an unviable position for many effectively being in the EU in many respects but with very little influence, I think the customs union option is also difficult without the ability to negotiate trade deals, and I very much doubt the EU will go for the idea that Labour have of a customs union with influence on EU trade deals.

At the end the day we voted to leave that's what we should get on and do and get the best free trade deal possible.

That’s a sensible and mature viewpoint and one which is shared by most remainers I know.

Sadly there are always a few who cannot accept it when things don’t go their way and insist on acting like petulant toddlers.

 

[northwichcat]

and is an unviable position for many effectively being in the EU in many respects but with very little influence

I agree with that part. However, both UKIP and Vote Leave pointed out we could have a 'Norway style deal' in an attempt to win over voters who wanted to remain in the single market. Therefore, I disagree it wouldn't be in the 'spirit of the vote' as some people could have voted leave on the presumption that a Norway style deal was the preferred option. Indeed, if the newspaper poll referred to is representative of the entire population then more than 1 in 5 of those who voted leave did so on the presumption leaving the EU didn't mean leaving the single market.

 

[EM2]

The main issue is that at the moment, almost no other country is in the position that the Government have said they want us to be in. Have a look at this diagram:

We don't want to be in the EU, the EU Customs Union, or Schengen, so if we'd want to be in EFTA or the EEA, we'd still be separate from Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway.
I suppose the closest to what the Government want would be Armenia, at the top.

 

[47802]

I agree with that part. However, both UKIP and Vote Leave pointed out we could have a 'Norway style deal' in an attempt to win over voters who wanted to remain in the single market. Therefore, I disagree it wouldn't be in the 'spirit of the vote' as some people could have voted leave on the presumption that a Norway style deal was the preferred option. Indeed, if the newspaper poll referred to is representative of the entire population then more than 1 in 5 of those who voted leave did so on the presumption leaving the EU didn't mean leaving the single market.

Well yes there were some on the leave side who did say that however I think most leavers would find a 'Norway' style deal to close to a single market deal and unacceptable, including particularly the requirement to accept freedom of movement, because while the politicians will try and deny this, a great many people voted for Brexit because they wanted immigration controls.

 

[Geezertronic]

Indeed, if the newspaper poll referred to is representative of the entire population then more than 1 in 5 of those who voted leave did so on the presumption leaving the EU didn't mean leaving the single market.

If that is the case, that is almost as bad as those who voted Leave on the basis of what was written on the bus or on the basis that the doors would be closed for immigration David Cameron and George Osbourne said multiple times that a Leave vote would mean leaving the Single Market

 

[northwichcat]

Well yes there were some on the leave side who did say that however I think most leavers would find a 'Norway' style deal to close to a single market deal and unacceptable, including particularly the requirement to accept freedom of movement, because while the politicians will try and deny this, a great many people voted for Brexit because they wanted immigration controls.

It's believed Norway wasn't forced to accept freedom of movement but chose to because it made better sense for them financially.

 

[northwichcat]

If that is the case, that is almost as bad as those who voted Leave on the basis of what was written on the bus or on the basis that the doors would be closed for immigration David Cameron and George Osbourne said multiple times that a Leave vote would mean leaving the Single Market

Cameron and Osborne were telling us about the negative impact leaving the single market would have, while Boris and Priti Patel were promising £350m extra for the NHS (and yes those two actually promised it unlike the vague bus claim which could be interpreted in different ways.) I'm sure no-one would complain if Brexit meant £500m for the NHS, so why complain if we left the EU and didn't have the doom and gloom which Cameron and Osborne promised?

 

[Howardh]

The main issue is that at the moment, almost no other country is in the position that the Government have said they want us to be in. Have a look at this diagram:

We don't want to be in the EU, the EU Customs Union, or Schengen, so if we'd want to be in EFTA or the EEA, we'd still be separate from Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway.
I suppose the closest to what the Government want would be Armenia, at the top.

Notice the CTA isn't shown on that wonderful diagram!