Estimated passenger numbers

[Claudius]

Could anyone shed light on why Ormskirk has an estimated passenger usage of 2 million (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ormskirk_railway_station) compared to seemingly busier stations like Blackpool North or Wigan North Western (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigan_North_Western_railway_station & https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackpool_North_railway_station)

I’ve checked the ORR stats which corroborates the information on Wikipedia.

Even if the estimates take into account passengers alighting the Merseyrail train and then subsequently getting on Northern train heading to Preston I still can’t see how they’ve arrived at that figure.

 

[johnnychips]

Well that works out at about 5500 a day. Do you think that’s feasible? I don’t know the area.

 

[Claudius]

its a small town about halfway between Preston & Liverpool on the A59. Population of about 25,000 meaning 1 in 5 would use that service everyday. Trains heading north go to Preston and are operated by Northern. Trains heading south go to Liverpool and are operated by Merseyrail

I can’t see that number being feasible when it is ahead of Blackpool North and Wigan North Western.

 

[Mordac]

Could serve as a railhead for the settlements North thereof. Easier to drive to Ormskirk and take the train to Scouseland than to take the sporadic Northern service and change there.

 

[Bletchleyite]

its a small town about halfway between Preston & Liverpool on the A59. Population of about 25,000 meaning 1 in 5 would use that service everyday. Trains heading north go to Preston and are operated by Northern. Trains heading south go to Liverpool and are operated by Merseyrail

I can’t see that number being feasible when it is ahead of Blackpool North and Wigan North Western.

I think it's very feasible - it's basically a commuter town for Liverpool (and to a much lesser extent Preston) with little local employment other than retail and self-employed tradesmen, and the idea that one in five of the population use the station daily is not at all far-fetched when you consider that quite a number will drive there (it has a reasonably sized car park), be dropped off or connect from a bus. Indeed there will be plenty of families where both adults and 2.4 kids (it's a very traditional area and most families will be of that nature) use it daily and often on weekends too.

For those who live outside the area it might be hard to contemplate this being the case up North, but to most people driving into Liverpool simply doesn't enter consideration. Like in the South East going to London, you go to Liverpool by train. Other options don't feature, except those with ENCTS passes and more time who might go by bus.

With the frequent service and perception of being very safe due to high staffing levels and strict Byelaw enforcement, it's also used by a lot of kids - you can add in hundreds if not over a thousand daily travelling to the Ormskirk schools from Aughton Park and Town Green (and to a lesser extent other stations as far as Aintree plus Burscough) as well as adult students to Edge Hill. It's also normal to see kids travelling on it on their own to get to local attractions, whereas in most other places they'd be on the bus or in parents' cars.

 

[KevinTurvey]

The figures may not be far out at all. The combination of PTE fares and OAP bus passes that can be used on trains means the off peak services can busy too. Also a lot of people use the train to go into Liverpool for a night out, plus Ormskirk market days are very popular.

Also, if you live near Ormskirk station there are nearly 40 sets of traffic lights or roundabouts between there and Central Liverpool. Even though its mostly dual carriageway, at some of these junctions you can be stuck sometimes for 2 or 3 traffic light cycles to get through at peak times. Even though the train is not particularly fast, it is a very good alternative to driving.

 

[Claudius]

I think it's very feasible - it's basically a commuter town for Liverpool (and to a much lesser extent Preston) with little local employment other than retail and self-employed tradesmen, and the idea that one in five of the population use the station daily is not at all far-fetched when you consider that quite a number will drive there (it has a reasonably sized car park), be dropped off or connect from a bus. Indeed there will be plenty of families where both adults and 2.4 kids (it's a very traditional area and most families will be of that nature) use it daily and often on weekends too.

For those who live outside the area it might be hard to contemplate this being the case up North, but to most people driving into Liverpool simply doesn't enter consideration. Like in the South East going to London, you go to Liverpool by train. Other options don't feature, except those with ENCTS passes and more time who might go by bus.

With the frequent service and perception of being very safe due to high staffing levels and strict Byelaw enforcement, it's also used by a lot of kids - you can add in hundreds if not over a thousand daily travelling to the Ormskirk schools from Aughton Park and Town Green (and to a lesser extent other stations as far as Aintree plus Burscough) as well as adult students to Edge Hill. It's also normal to see kids travelling on it on their own to get to local attractions, whereas in most other places they'd be on the bus or in parents' cars.

Interesting points but I’m still not convinced.

Would you agree that St. Helens is a commuter town? St Helens Central & St Helens Junction when combined still have less passengers than Ormskirk. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Helens_Central_railway_station & https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Helens_Junction_railway_station)when you add in Thatto Heath and Lea Green the total takes you to about 2.3 mil (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thatto_Heath_railway_station & https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lea_Green_railway_station). St Helens area is a much denser catchment area with trains taking passengers to more destinations as opposed to Ormskirk.

Look further afield to other places I’d consider to be commuter towns. Yate, north of Bristol 0.38 million (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yate_railway_station). Cwmbran, which arguably serves Newport and Cardiff 0.4 million(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cwmbran_railway_station).

 

[158756]

The 2011 census reported around 350 people in Ormskirk commuting to Liverpool, Sefton or Preston by train, there were also around 90 in Burscough who might use Ormskirk station, plus a few more in surrounding villages. Around 150 that I can see reported travelling to work in Ormskirk by train. So (remembering the usage estimates count entries and exits) that'd be 1200 of the 5500 passengers if they each travelled every day.

Another important factor will be the university - I don't know how many live in the town, but Edge Hill apparently has 15000 students. As well as the end of term rush there will be some daily commuters and the students probably use the train to get to Liverpool and anywhere else they want to go.

There might be some overestimating as well - the fares system will encourage Merseyrail ticket holders to split at Ormskirk if travelling towards Preston, thus being counted twice, and since it's zonal there has to be an element of guesswork involved in the distribution between stations, plus there's a large share of period tickets with estimates for how often they're used - in the South East these estimates seem to be thought to be too high.

 

[Matt_pool]

According to On Time Trains www.ontimetrains.co.uk Ormskirk had an average 6201 passengers per day in 2017, which works out at just over 2.2 million passengers for the whole year.

That figure is perhaps boosted by the fact that when the Grand National takes place a lot more people use the trains (which are more frequent and have extra carriages over the 3 days) to get from Ormskirk to Aintree.

 

[Camden]

Interesting points but I’m still not convinced.

Would you agree that St. Helens is a commuter town? St Helens Central & St Helens Junction when combined still have less passengers than Ormskirk. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Helens_Central_railway_station & https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Helens_Junction_railway_station)when you add in Thatto Heath and Lea Green the total takes you to about 2.3 mil (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thatto_Heath_railway_station & https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lea_Green_railway_station). St Helens area is a much denser catchment area with trains taking passengers to more destinations as opposed to Ormskirk.

Look further afield to other places I’d consider to be commuter towns. Yate, north of Bristol 0.38 million (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yate_railway_station). Cwmbran, which arguably serves Newport and Cardiff 0.4 million(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cwmbran_railway_station).

What specifically has drawn you to Ormskirk for this? Are you looking at passenger numbers generally?

I think the numbers will be right, and I can guess as to the reason for lower numbers are the others (although would expect for Lea Green to spike this year). Ormskirk is a integral suburban town, not just a commuter town, and that means regularly work, shopping, leisure, family visits, etc, etc. I do use Merseyrail a fair amount, and I note that the Ormskirk line frequently is down for the full 6 carriage trains.

Simply put that people in the Liverpool area do use public transport more similarly to us Londoners than elsewhere. ORR stats show around 100 million journeys made within the Liverpool area in a year (Northern and Merseyrail included) versus around 60 million within the larger Greater Manchester area. Bristol doesn't come anywhere close to either of those two in either population or transport terms, and Cardiff too is smaller with a poorer standard of transport. Factors on top then to do with local amenities, position of the station, quality of the services, and so on.

I think you have picked the wrong place if you want to find holes. Given the disruption over the past couple of years, I expect 2 million is a low point for it.

 

[Claudius]

What specifically has drawn you to Ormskirk for this? Are you looking at passenger numbers generally?

I think the numbers will be right, and I can guess as to the reason for lower numbers are the others (although would expect for Lea Green to spike this year). Ormskirk is a integral suburban town, not just a commuter town, and that means regularly work, shopping, leisure, family visits, etc, etc. I do use Merseyrail a fair amount, and I note that the Ormskirk line frequently is down for the full 6 carriage trains.

Simply put that people in the Liverpool area do use public transport more similarly to us Londoners than elsewhere. ORR stats show around 100 million journeys made within the Liverpool area in a year (Northern and Merseyrail included) versus around 60 million within the larger Greater Manchester area. Bristol doesn't come anywhere close to either of those two in either population or transport terms, and Cardiff too is smaller with a poorer standard of transport. Factors on top then to do with local amenities, position of the station, quality of the services, and so on.

I think you have picked the wrong place if you want to find holes. Given the disruption over the past couple of years, I expect 2 million is a low point for it.

No particular reason for picking on Ormskirk, I sometimes drive through there on the way to work (bootle). Also I was telling my dad about the Ormskirk to Preston service was recently reported to be one of the most cancelled on the rail network.

Fair point re Cardiff and Bristol.

I had a look at the link @Matt_pool put up, according to that, in 2013 Ormskirk had 1,994 entries per day and then in 2014 it went up to 5641 per day. I wonder what happened to cause that increase.

 

[dk1]

Trains are 6-cars & often full & standing from Ormskirk on Grand National day. That helps pump up the figures & other Aintree meets must help.

 

[TubeMapCentral]

With a basic 4tph service commencing from the station you would be wanting to see around 20 passengers per off-peak train into Liverpool to be in line with that figure?

Race day traffic sounds as though it is the key though, but that could be dealt with on the back of an envelope too.

 

[kieron]

No particular reason for picking on Ormskirk, I sometimes drive through there on the way to work (bootle). Also I was telling my dad about the Ormskirk to Preston service was recently reported to be one of the most cancelled on the rail network.

Fair point re Cardiff and Bristol.

I had a look at the link @Matt_pool put up, according to that, in 2013 Ormskirk had 1,994 entries per day and then in 2014 it went up to 5641 per day. I wonder what happened to cause that increase.

According to the 2013-14 methodological report, they implemented a new way of estimating how many journeys were made with Merseytravel products for the 2013-4 estimate. This added 10.8 million journeys to the count, including 1.3 million passengers at Ormskirk.

The ORR may be able to tell you a bit more about this, but that's all I know.

 

[WatcherZero]

Aside from mentioned special events and it being an interchange between a metro and national rail network and the station for a university campus.

The main difference from Wigan is that Ormskirk has a small village station 2.5 miles north and a small village station 2 miles south, it therefore captures the majority of the towns population. Theres half a dozen stations in Wigan within the same area and a couple of stops before you even leave the town (e.g Ince, Pemberton) and several more still within the suburbs e.g shevington, orrell. It also has a substantial and frequent bus network.