England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Trackman]

If someone gets fined for breaching lockdown rules, such as thay gym on the Wirral, does it give you a criminal record which could hunt you in future (jobs, visas etc) or is it just like a parking fine, or something like driving with dodgy lights, only more expensive?

I've looked into this before.
From the Independent website:

If a fine is paid, no criminal offence is recorded because the law states that the person has “discharged any liability to conviction for the offence”.
But if the fine is not paid within 28 days, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) can charge them with committing the alleged crime, making them attend a magistrates’ court and face receiving both a higher fine and a criminal record if convicted.

 

[Swanny200]

Coventry is in Tier 1, as is the Borough of Dudley.

However the infection rate in Coventry has risen by just over 42% in the past week, as opposed to an increase of just over 10% for Birmingham.

So it is possible that Coventry will be moved into Tier 2 shortly, but quite honestly I think polict decisions are made on the back of a fag packet these days.

Presumably now that most countries have been removed from the UK travel corridor, Grant Shapps will give his set of darts to TwMatt Hancock, and he will throw a set of darts at a map of England every week, to see which local authorities will be moved on to the next higher tier of restrictions. If the dart lands on an area already in tier 3, then tough s**t, you stay in tier 3 for another week.

I shouldn't be laughing about it, especially considering we are in the North East and they all this morning on their zoom call said that they will refuse any tier 3 suggestion from the government unless they have more money, I can just imagine HandCock at the Oche with Tony Green on the sidelines shouting "Tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiier One!"

I found it interesting that they sent Helen Whatley (Who never seems to know what day of the week it is let alone what is going on) to the North West zoom call, ITV were reporting from various North West Conservative MPs of which one is chair of the 1922 committee that none of them were invited to the zoom call and when they eventually got on to it were shocked and angry at what their colleagues in the department for health were proposing, BBC and ITV both reporting that it was them that vetoed any plan, not just the Labour councillors and MP's that the government will no doubt blame it on.

 

[island]

Which begs the question as to why these areas were not moved into Tier 2 when the 3 tier system started yesterday.

Something must be done
this is something
so we must do it

 

[Swanny200]

Someone remarked yesterday on the radio that the reason Boris will announce on a Monday that something will happen 48/72 hours in the future is so that businesses that need to close can give staff ample warning amongst other things. But this just means that some of the population of said areas treat it as a final night of freedom, then they see a spike where people have now been in such close proximity and a lot of them drunk or carefree enough not to give a toss.

I can see things getting a whole lot worse before it gets better, someone suggested if they wanted to go out but couldn't in Liverpool because of restrictions, travelling into Manchester on the train or in the car and going out there instead, why are people so hell bent on going on a night out, people are dying, people are suffering long term illnesses which are being at the moment compared to M.E which means that their likelihood of any support from this government if they cannot get back to work amounts to next to nothing.

Lets also not forget the amount of times Boris has made specific nasty comments about Liverpool that it is a bit of a coincidence that they are the first to be put into tier 3, he might have well been flipping the bird as he made the announcement.

 

[Howardh]

As stated in the commons by a local Tory MP; Hancock has "united Greater Manchester, Labour MP's, Tory MP's Labour councils, Tory councils are all against him".

hancock repeated closing down hospitality in Bolton "worked".

If it did, why are we likely to go into lockdown again????

 

[185143]

Go on, give us a clue (don't need to name the station, just the area). I'm baffled. Because of the lie of the land, there's no reason to enter the "peninsula" that contains the Liverpool City Region, West Lancashire and nothing else, really, unless your destination is in that area. For anywhere else you can bypass it up the WCML (or, if it's part of the Wirral in Cheshire, via Chester or Shotton).

But going via Shotton would mean entering Wales's lockdown area I believe?

You were thinking too literally. As it turns out, I got a lift in the end so it was a bit of a moot point. I'm currently sat having a beer on Stena Mersey heading to Belfast. Which should be an experience from tomorrow evening onwards...

 

[Bletchleyite]

But going via Shotton would mean entering Wales's lockdown area I believe?

Ah yes, it would. I forgot Shotton was in Wales, it not being a very Welsh sounding place.

 

[philosopher]

I'm one of those anti-lockdown YET I'd support a 2-3wk total lockdown - and that means everything - even though I'm against it.

Think what Imean is I hate this wishy-washy approach where things are made up on the hoof, but worst of all is that they are hitting the wrong targets so the current lockdowns are futile, we're suffering for nothing.

Even so, if they had the fortnight's curcuit-breaker, it might bring the figures down substantially, but the minute the kids go back to school and colleges, up they go again, back into lockdown and repeat.

If a circuit breaker lockdown worked in bringing the cases down enough to allow the whole country to go into tier one and more importantly meant there would no need for a future tightening of restrictions I support it. The problem is all I think a circuit breaker will achieve is to delay the epidemic by a few weeks meaning they will have to have another circuit breaker lockdown a few weeks later. This cycle could until there is widespread vaccination.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If a circuit breaker lockdown worked in bringing the cases down enough to allow the whole country to go into tier one and more importantly meant there would no need for a future tightening of restrictions I support it. The problem is all I think a circuit breaker will achieve is to delay the epidemic by a few weeks meaning they will have to have another circuit breaker lockdown a few weeks later. This cycle could until there is widespread vaccination.

An interesting question is whether 2 weeks on, 4 weeks off would be better than continuous lower-level but still restrictive measures.

One of the many reasons this really needs to be debated properly by Parliament.

 

[radamfi]

Ah yes, it would. I forgot Shotton was in Wales, it not being a very Welsh sounding place.

As an aside, it is one of the few towns in Wales that doesn't have a different Welsh translation. It is Shotton in both English and Welsh.

A lot of people here probably are very aware of it being in Wales because it used to be a good ticket destination to get around WCML ticket restrictions.

 

[Bikeman78]

If a circuit breaker lockdown worked in bringing the cases down enough to allow the whole country to go into tier one and more importantly meant there would no need for a future tightening of restrictions I support it. The problem is all I think a circuit breaker will achieve is to delay the epidemic by a few weeks meaning they will have to have another circuit breaker lockdown a few weeks later. This cycle could until there is widespread vaccination.

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that there is no practical solution. All the changes thus far, the face masks, one way systems, queues outside shops, seem to be done little to prevent the virus flaring up again. The only thing that works to any extent is confining people to their homes but that cannot be the solution indefinitely. It's unaffordable and children need their education and to interract with other people. As the months go by, even lockdowns will become less effective because people will simply meet in their homes.

As regards a vaccine, how long are we prepared to wait? Another six months, a year, two years? What happens if the researchers conclude that a vaccine is not possible?

 

[bramling]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that there is no practical solution. All the changes thus far, the face masks, one way systems, queues outside shops, seem to be done little to prevent the virus falring up again. The only thing that works to any extent is confining people to their homes but that cannot be the solution indefinitely. It's unaffordable and children need their education and to interract with other people. As the months go by, even lockdowns will become less effective because people will simply meet in their homes.

As regards a vaccine, how long are we prepared to wait? Another six months, a year, two years? What happens if the researchers conclude that a vaccine is not possible?

This does seem to be about right. I don't think a full lockdown would even succeed in bringing numbers down as people just aren't going to comply with it over the winter months.

Meanwhile, Burnham just speaking, OMG!

 

[ChrisC]

Which begs the question as to why these areas were not moved into Tier 2 when the 3 tier system started yesterday.

What has happened in these areas to justify them moving to a higher tier quite so soon, or was this the intention all along.

I have a nasty suspicion that England will be subject to "lockdown creep", whereby more and more areas are moved into higher tiers gradually, so that the government can then say there isn't a national lockdown.

Wonder who will be next to be moved on to the naughty step, and also the very naughty step, next week?

That surprised me too that things are changing so quickly. Did they not get it correct on Monday.
I was quite surprised, but also pleased, that Nottinghamshire was put into Tier 2 on Monday as I was expecting it to be put into Tier 3. However, once the decision had been made I expecting it to remain like that for at least 2-3 weeks, with no more changes made, until it was seen whether the measures were actually working. How can anyone, especially businesses, make any plans beyond a couple of days.

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that there is no practical solution. All the changes thus far, the face masks, one way systems, queues outside shops, seem to be done little to prevent the virus falring up again. The only thing that works to any extent is confining people to their homes but that cannot be the solution indefinitely. It's unaffordable and children need their education and to interract with other people. As the months go by, even lockdowns will become less effective because people will simply meet in their homes.

As regards a vaccine, how long are we prepared to wait? Another six months, a year, two years? What happens if the researchers conclude that a vaccine is not possible?

I'm afraid this is pretty much where we are. All the measures tried around the world have generally failed to stop the spread, merely occasionally to slow it. No sooner than you relax them, the virus takes hold again. And as you say a vaccine is still very much an unknown factor, trying to hang on just in case one actually makes it do mass distribution & actually works is pure madness.

So the way I see it we have little choice, we have to accept we can't stare the virus down. All we are doing is burning the village to save it.

 

[Philip]

Andy Burnham isn't giving in without a fight! He makes a fair point quoting the deputy CMO who has said the tier 3 restrictions don't go far enough for surpressing rates. So why go to tier 3 at all with all the damage to the economy and employment it would cause, if these measures are deemed ineffective?

The whole shambles will probably reduce compliance to the measures as there will be public distrust of the government and its measures.

 

[AndyY]

I'm afraid this is pretty much where we are. All the measures tried around the world have generally failed to stop the spread, merely occasionally to slow it. No sooner than you relax them, the virus takes hold again. And as you say a vaccine is still very much an unknown factor, trying to hang on just in case one actually makes it do mass distribution & actually works is pure madness.

So the way I see it we have little choice, we have to accept we can't stare the virus down. All we are doing is burning the village to save it.

Sadly, people in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia are laughing their heads off at comments like this.
They have stopped the virus in its tracks completely, while it seems that only viable way left in UK is herd immunity (i.e. let everyone catch it, and hope not too many die), and we cannot even wait for stage 3 vaccine test results, which should be available in a month or so. Russia has already authorised 2 vaccines.
This is a real eye opener to "western democracy and freedom".

 

[Yew]

Russia has already authorised 2 vaccines.

And they did how much testing exactly?

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

Andy Burnham isn't giving in without a fight! He makes a fair point quoting the deputy CMO who has said the tier 3 restrictions don't go far enough for surpressing rates. So why go to tier 3 at all with all the damage to the economy and employment it would cause, if these measures are deemed ineffective?

The whole shambles will probably reduce compliance to the measures as there will be public distrust of the government and its measures.

Ideally for the government, Liverpool cases will start to drop significantly in the next few weeks once the lockdown has a chance for to work and then Manchester cases will continue to go through the roof and Burnham will look a bit of a tool then wont he?

 

[hwl]

An interesting question is whether 2 weeks on, 4 weeks off would be better than continuous lower-level but still restrictive measures.

One of the many reasons this really needs to be debated properly by Parliament.

Jordan is trialling 2 days locked down 5 days more open to see how that reduces the transmission rate. Not sure that it will be more than minimally effective but possibly worth a try to see if a lower economic impact strategy can work?

 

[DB]

I'm afraid this is pretty much where we are. All the measures tried around the world have generally failed to stop the spread, merely occasionally to slow it. No sooner than you relax them, the virus takes hold again. And as you say a vaccine is still very much an unknown factor, trying to hang on just in case one actually makes it do mass distribution & actually works is pure madness.

So the way I see it we have little choice, we have to accept we can't stare the virus down. All we are doing is burning the village to save it.

Agreed, and the fact that it's flaring up again at the time of year when all respiratory viruses flare up should come as no surprise to anyone.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This does seem to be about right. I don't think a full lockdown would even succeed in bringing numbers down as people just aren't going to comply with it over the winter months.

Meanwhile, Burnham just speaking, OMG!

Burnham is certainly proving his worth (and I've heard him speak sense a lot through this). It's a shame Liverpool's Mayor is not quite so vocal.

We're seeing a lot of statesmen come to the fore over this. Unlike Boris.

 

[hwl]

Ideally for the government, Liverpool cases will start to drop significantly in the next few weeks once the lockdown has a chance for to work and then Manchester cases will continue to go through the roof and Burnham will look a bit of a tool then wont he?

That does look like the government plan. Khan and London and surrounding area politicians being more cooperative with the government.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ideally for the government, Liverpool cases will start to drop significantly in the next few weeks once the lockdown has a chance for to work and then Manchester cases will continue to go through the roof and Burnham will look a bit of a tool then wont he?

I don't think it will, to be honest, because people will mostly just ignore it, and as SAGE said pubs aren't that significant.

 

[Bikeman78]

And they did how much testing exactly?

Quite. Hell will freeze over before I trust a Russian vaccine.

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

Burnham is certainly proving his worth (and I've heard him speak sense a lot through this). It's a shame Liverpool's Mayor is not quite so vocal.

We're seeing a lot of statesmen come to the fore over this. Unlike Boris.

Joe Anderson is lobbying for a full and total lock down to include shops, restaurants and everywhere else that was forced to close during the original lockdown, completely at odds with the people of Liverpool which is surprising really.

 

[DB]

Sadly, people in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia are laughing their heads off at comments like this.
They have stopped the virus in its tracks completely, while it seems that only viable way left in UK is herd immunity (i.e. let everyone catch it, and hope not too many die), and we cannot even wait for stage 3 vaccine test results, which should be available in a month or so. Russia has already authorised 2 vaccines.
This is a real eye opener to "western democracy and freedom".

Those countries haven't in any way 'stopped the virus in its tracks' - it keeps on flaring up, and the more they've suppressed it the worse the flare-up will be when they try to get back to something approaching normal (including open borders)

It's not clear why some people fail to understand this, but it's a highly infectious virus which spreads quite quickly. There is no precedent, ever, for stopping a virus of this type once it has achieved wide spread - at that point, it's only a matter of time before it runs through the world population. The only chance of suppressing this was early on, but by the time efforts were really made it was too late.

 

[hwl]

Sadly, people in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia are laughing their heads off at comments like this.
They have stopped the virus in its tracks completely, while it seems that only viable way left in UK is herd immunity (i.e. let everyone catch it, and hope not too many die).

All at lower latitudes with more sun and warmer which is less good for the virus.
Slightly cooler climates may have far more issues in the winter with the virus.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Joe Anderson is lobbying for a full and total lock down to include shops, restaurants and everywhere else that was forced to close during the original lockdown, completely at odds with the people of Liverpool which is surprising really.

I think the general view is that a full lockdown is fine, provided the full furlough scheme (capped 80%) is reinstated, and extended to cover ALL self employed people plus anyone who was caught between jobs, plus additional funding to stop businesses collapsing.

I think that is entirely fair and I agree with him.

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

I don't think it will, to be honest, because people will mostly just ignore it, and as SAGE said pubs aren't that significant.

Lets speak in a couple of weeks and see how the results go, it will be very interesting to see, this is so long as Manchester continues to play hard ball. I think they will come to an agreement in the coming days though.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Oct 2020 ==

I think the general view is that a full lockdown is fine, provided the full furlough scheme (capped 80%) is reinstated, and extended to cover ALL self employed people plus anyone who was caught between jobs, plus additional funding to stop businesses collapsing.

I think that is entirely fair and I agree with him.

I don't think the country can afford to do it again, which is why this regional tier ideas have come into play.

 

[bramling]

That does look like the government plan. Khan and London and surrounding area politicians being more cooperative with the government.

Khan was just on the news and he seemed surprisingly muted.