England's new three-tier lockdown system

[DB]

Do the government really think that people are following all this and keeping track of what applies in their area at the moment? Have they not realised that large numbers have simply had enough now and neither know nor care what they are supposed to be doing.

 

[kristiang85]

Essex Council asked for it as well.

Interestingly all the replies on the BBC story about London on twitter (so should be from a wide range of opinion) are pretty much universally against it.

I think people are reaching their limit.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Don't know as a percentage how much of the population of the south will be in T2 in 36 hours' time.

Also, I know that Birmingham and Leicester are T2, is Coventry T2 also being almost halfway between them?

 

[Trackman]

Being reported areas in Lancashire to stay in tier 2.
No decision on GM yet.

 

[Philip]

Being reported areas in Lancashire to stay in tier 2.
No decision on GM yet.

Greater Manchester into tier 3 according to the BBC.

 

[Trackman]

Greater Manchester into tier 3 according to the BBC.

Leaders were told this in a zoom meeting this morning, and apparently it’s all kicked off.
They will be no announcement this morning and they will be having another meeting this afternoon.

 

[duncanp]

Don't know as a percentage how much of the population of the south will be in T2 in 36 hours' time.

Also, I know that Birmingham and Leicester are T2, is Coventry T2 also being almost halfway between them?

Coventry is in Tier 1, as is the Borough of Dudley.

However the infection rate in Coventry has risen by just over 42% in the past week, as opposed to an increase of just over 10% for Birmingham.

So it is possible that Coventry will be moved into Tier 2 shortly, but quite honestly I think polict decisions are made on the back of a fag packet these days.

Presumably now that most countries have been removed from the UK travel corridor, Grant Shapps will give his set of darts to TwMatt Hancock, and he will throw a set of darts at a map of England every week, to see which local authorities will be moved on to the next higher tier of restrictions. If the dart lands on an area already in tier 3, then tough s**t, you stay in tier 3 for another week.

 

[Paul_10]

Looking at some of the numbers in the hotspots, they seem to have been levelling off already; which is embarrassing for Boris, as it's before any of the latest measures could have had any effect.

Dont see how it's embarracing as case numbers are still WAY too high even if they are levelling off which is far too early to conclude anyways.

As for hospitality businesses, the farce in this tier system will be owners would probably rather be put into tier 3 therefore they can close and get the governments money instead as the way its going, its better financially for them to do that as lack of custom during the week will be making an impact.

 

[packermac]

Essex Council asked for it as well.

Interestingly all the replies on the BBC story about London on twitter (so should be from a wide range of opinion) are pretty much universally against it.

I think people are reaching their limit.

Local authorities have a Public Health responsibility, which is why I suspect councils are requesting this. Back in early September Southampton cancelled two boat shows and three fun fairs, three at less than 12 hours notice that were supposedly Covid compliant, exactly for public health issue.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Cue loads of people heading to Devon and Cornwall this weekend and tomorrow.

 

[Yew]

Dont see how it's embarracing as case numbers are still WAY too high even if they are levelling off which is far too early to conclude anyways.

Perhaps, but the fact that we're not even giving the changes time to settle in , before making yet more changes suggests that this isn't a thought out and structured approach, more flinging muck at a wall to see what sticks.

It's also concerning that this is beginning to turn into a national lockdown in all but name, as more and more areas are added to Matt Hancocks Naughty List. This Christmas it's going to be Coal for everyone (apart from those in the north, who get too fussy about coal)

 

[adc82140]

Cue loads of people heading to Devon and Cornwall this weekend and tomorrow.

I'm sat in Devon right now. It's cold. Not really beach weather.

 

[duncanp]

It's also concerning that this is beginning to turn into a national lockdown in all but name, as more and more areas are added to Matt Hancocks Naughty List.

Yes, see my earlier comment about Matt Hancock borrowing Grant Shapps' quarantine darts.

But sooner or later, people will have had enough.

It will be a very brave government that tries to close everything over Christmas and the New Year.

 

[Bantamzen]

Dont see how it's embarracing as case numbers are still WAY too high even if they are levelling off which is far too early to conclude anyways.

Not cases, infections.

As for hospitality businesses, the farce in this tier system will be owners would probably rather be put into tier 3 therefore they can close and get the governments money instead as the way its going, its better financially for them to do that as lack of custom during the week will be making an impact.

And what about the workers?

 

[kristiang85]

Not cases, infections.

Not even that, positive tests can happen without the COVID infection.

 

[philjo]

Matt Hancock speaking in The Commons ... York, Barrow in Furness North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield will move to The High alert tier 2 on Saturday,

 

[Ian Cunningham]

As for hospitality businesses, the farce in this tier system will be owners would probably rather be put into tier 3 therefore they can close and get the governments money instead as the way its going, its better financially for them to do that as lack of custom during the week will be making an impact.

And what about the workers?

If they are forced to close in a Tier 3 area then the government pays 67% of workers wages (Employer pays NI and pension only- no requirement to top up) so staff get at least 67% of wage and employer has low employment costs.

If they are not forced to close (eg Tier 1 or 2) but business is affected by restrictions then they only have the part-time JRS which has a significant minimum employer contribution (55%) plus pensions and NI.
This can be a far worse situation for a business as you have significantly reduced income, retain most of your costs but get less financial support.
The Tier 2 restriction of not meeting other households indoors has a massive impact on hospitality. Many premises have no outdoor seating so lose that whole market segment completely

 

[adc82140]

Matt Hancock speaking in The Commons ... York, Barrow in Furness North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield will move to The High alert tier 2 on Saturday,

And Elmbridge, Surrey. Now the restrictions are hitting the affluent home counties commuter belt, expect trouble in the Tory ranks.

 

[Paul_10]

Not cases, infections.

And what about the workers?

I assume they would rather be put into tier 3, especially those on zero hour contracts e
if they can negotiate a better financial deal than it is at the moment. If there is no customers then they won't get the work therefore no money.

 

[Howardh]

He's just said - the curve in Bolton's "flattened" (as a result of the recent lockdown which was more stringent than tier 3 with all hospitality closed). If that's the case, then why does he want us to go back in to tier 3??

 

[MikeWM]

They either don't have the first clue what they are doing, or they know *exactly* what they are doing. And either option is pretty terrifying.

 

[Bantamzen]

If they are forced to close in a Tier 3 area then the government pays 67% of workers wages (Employer pays NI and pension only- no requirement to top up) so staff get at least 67% of wage and employer has low employment costs.

If they are not forced to close (eg Tier 1 or 2) but business is affected by restrictions then they only have the part-time JRS which has a significant minimum employer contribution (55%) plus pensions and NI.
This can be a far worse situation for a business as you have significantly reduced income, retain most of your costs but get less financial support.
The Tier 2 restriction of not meeting other households indoors has a massive impact on hospitality. Many premises have no outdoor seating so lose that whole market segment completely

That's still a third down on their regular wages, and its not clear if they will still have to pay income tax as they did with furloughed pay.

I assume they would rather be put into tier 3, especially those on zero hour contracts e
if they can negotiate a better financial deal than it is at the moment. If there is no customers then they won't get the work therefore no money.

You assume? Trust me if that's what you'd assume then you'd be wrong. The furlough scheme left a lot of people out of pocket and struggling. Luckily banks and creditors did allow some payment holidays but its not clear if that will happen again. And with Christmas rapidly approaching, and time when both retail and hospitality sectors usually enjoy some additional income, every day lost is one step forward to another job being lost. Just today Marston breweries have announced 2,100 jobs being lost as a result of furlough, this picture is likely to be replicated time and again, adding to the estimated 750,000 jobs already lost since April.

 

[duncanp]

Matt Hancock speaking in The Commons ... York, Barrow in Furness North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield will move to The High alert tier 2 on Saturday,

Which begs the question as to why these areas were not moved into Tier 2 when the 3 tier system started yesterday.

What has happened in these areas to justify them moving to a higher tier quite so soon, or was this the intention all along.

I have a nasty suspicion that England will be subject to "lockdown creep", whereby more and more areas are moved into higher tiers gradually, so that the government can then say there isn't a national lockdown.

Wonder who will be next to be moved on to the naughty step, and also the very naughty step, next week?

 

[Howardh]

If someone gets fined for breaching lockdown rules, such as thay gym on the Wirral, does it give you a criminal record which could hunt you in future (jobs, visas etc) or is it just like a parking fine, or something like driving with dodgy lights, only more expensive?

 

[Crossover]

As for hospitality businesses, the farce in this tier system will be owners would probably rather be put into tier 3 therefore they can close and get the governments money instead as the way its going, its better financially for them to do that as lack of custom during the week will be making an impact.

And what about the workers?

As per @Ian Cunningham's reply, the workers will be "ok" (in that they will receive some pay, be it not all), but there's also a supply chain to consider as another point - the companies along the pecking order will lose a business stream but will still have to contribute fairly handsomely to keep their staff gainfully employed

 

[yorksrob]

Just spotted this on the BBC live feed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54550644

Lucy Powell, Labour MP for Greater Manchester, says there was "unanimous fury" from the people on the call with ministers today to discuss putting the area into higher coronavirus restrictions.

Regional leaders criticised the process, the evidence base and the economic support package on offer, she said.

"We want action but it has to be the right action because we’ve lived in Tier 2 now for nearly three months and it’s not worked," she said in the House of Commons.

She said the chief medical officer has said Tier 3 measures would not make a "material difference" to the infection rate, but would mean tens of thousands of jobs lost and thousands of businesses closed.

It is "not good enough" that "meaningful conversations" about new measures in Manchester only began this morning, Powell said.

But the health secretary said discussions had been "going on for some time" and rejected her account of the chief medical officer's words, who said that local areas may need to agree more measures than the Tier 3 baseline restrictions.

"Action is needed fast" in Manchester, Hancock sai

I note particularly the line quoted that the chief medical officer has said that tier 3 measures would not make a "material difference" to the infection rate

It beggars belief that this circus is continuing.

 

[Bantamzen]

As per @Ian Cunningham's reply, the workers will be "ok" (in that they will receive some pay, be it not all), but there's also a supply chain to consider as another point - the companies along the pecking order will lose a business stream but will still have to contribute fairly handsomely to keep their staff gainfully employed

By 'OK' you mean wondering if they will be able to pay their bills, whether their job will be there much long, facing the possibility of being unemployed? I mean call me fickle, but that doesn't sound OK. In fact I know it isn't. And those companies & their workers further along the supply chain face exactly the same problems.

Edit:

And as above, this ought to be breaking news & forcing serious questioning, but it won't sadly.

She said the chief medical officer has said Tier 3 measures would not make a "material difference" to the infection rate

Won't make a material difference, but will create more unemployment.

 

[Crossover]

By 'OK' you mean wondering if they will be able to pay their bills, whether their job will be there much long, facing the possibility of being unemployed? I mean call me fickle, but that doesn't sound OK. In fact I know it isn't. And those companies & their workers further along the supply chain face exactly the same problems.

That's why I put "OK" rather than OK. They have something in the offing where the employer doesn't have a large bill to foot, whereas other areas (Tier 2, supply chain etc), less so. Don't get me wrong it's a terrible situation all round (again, hence the intended distinction in how I worded my last post)

 

[bramling]

Which begs the question as to why these areas were not moved into Tier 2 when the 3 tier system started yesterday.

What has happened in these areas to justify them moving to a higher tier quite so soon, or was this the intention all along.

I have a nasty suspicion that England will be subject to "lockdown creep", whereby more and more areas are moved into higher tiers gradually, so that the government can then say there isn't a national lockdown.

Wonder who will be next to be moved on to the naughty step, and also the very naughty step, next week?

That seems to be exactly what’s going on. I suspect BJ is bricking it at the thought that it’s been noticed (by the likes of Starmer) that he’s now “going against the science”, so this creep allows the circuit breaker to be brought in by stealth, on the basis of some scientific claims. We had the quarantine lottery, which crept in the same way, now we have the circuit breaker lottery.

 

[brad465]

And Elmbridge, Surrey. Now the restrictions are hitting the affluent home counties commuter belt, expect trouble in the Tory ranks.

Essex is also going into Tier 2 and all 18 constituencies in the county are Tory-held with high profile figures including James Cleverley, Priti Patel, Mark Francois and Bernard Jenkin, so even more trouble in their ranks.