England's new three-tier lockdown system

[takno]

As Scotland has already started its two week circuit breaker lockdown, surely the best thing for England would be to wait and see if the Scottish one has any significant effect on the spread of the virus? If, as I suspect, the effect is minimal it will prove that there's no point in having s similar lockdown in England.

I think a combination of the students reaching herd immunity within their community, and schools being off for (in many cases) two weeks will ensure that the lockdown in Scotland appears to work, and as a result lots of lovely "evidence" will be generated to keep various parts of the UK in on-and-off lockdown for the rest of winter.

 

[Crossover]

I never had an hour at lunch in the entire time I was in school.

...which was when?

Same for me - we had 35 minutes in secondary school (a bit over a decade ago)

 

[Philip]

How many overall cases does the North West have now? I've heard it mentioned as a reason why cases in London haven't taken off so much recently after being hit very hard in March/April, so could the North West start to see a drop off in infection rates sooner than we think, because of some immunity in the region building up?

Manchester and Liverpool have both passed the 10,000 reported cases mark, given the lack of testing in the March/April peak it's not inconceivable they might be getting towards 100,000 in total so that would be nearly 20% of the population of each city.

 

[Howardh]

How many overall cases does the North West have now? I've heard it mentioned as a reason why cases in London haven't taken off so much recently after being hit very hard in March/April, so could the North West start to see a drop off in infection rates sooner than we think, because of some immunity in the region building up?

Manchester and Liverpool have both passed the 10,000 reported cases mark, given the lack of testing in the March/April peak it's not inconceivable they might be getting towards 100,000 in total so that would be nearly 20% of the population of each city.

Isn't the herd immunity "target" (for want of a better term) 60% or thereabouts? Just something I remember from March, if anyone can correct me...

 

[Yew]

Isn't the herd immunity "target" (for want of a better term) 60% or thereabouts? Just something I remember from March, if anyone can correct me...

If we assume a random distribution of immunity, and no forms of preexisting immunity, then yes.

However when we consider that those who see more people are more likely to get the virus and become immune, this can be lowered, as the approximation above assumes that we all wander around bumping into eachother randomly. In reality we're more likely to bump into the same people again and again, and people like shop assistants or bar staff can act as buffers to stop spread if they are immune.

 

[Busaholic]

Same for me - we had 35 minutes in secondary school (a bit over a decade ago)

I must have been educated (if indeed I was) in more leisured times - we had 1hr 25 minutes 12.30 p.m. to 1.55 p.m. Personally, I'd have liked to lose 40 mins there so we could come out at 3.20 p.m. rather than 4 p.m., but that may have been more the fact that then we'd have encountered the pupils from the local girls' school rather than always miss them!

 

[Howardh]

I must have been educated (if indeed I was) in more leisured times - we had 1hr 25 minutes 12.30 p.m. to 1.55 p.m. Personally, I'd have liked to lose 40 mins there so we could come out at 3.20 p.m. rather than 4 p.m., but that may have been more the fact that then we'd have encountered the pupils from the local girls' school rather than always miss them!

Think we had two sittings at dinnertime, but we were already on the covid game, we sat eight to a hexagonal table (work that one out...) but the food was brought to us. So we didn't get the distancing right, but spot on with the table service.

Back OT, been out tonight and on return it appears Manchester stays in Tier 2. For how long??

 

[Busaholic]

Back OT, been out tonight and on return it appears Manchester stays in Tier 2. For how long??

Most likely Friday, possibly with Lancashire.

 

[takno]

Isn't the herd immunity "target" (for want of a better term) 60% or thereabouts? Just something I remember from March, if anyone can correct me...

In addition to points about population distribution earlier, 60% is the estimated tipping point if you like - there is still a degree of protective effect at lower levels and the closer you get to that point the less exponential the growth in infections. Pair that with some relatively light restrictions and the numbers infected might actually start to shrink.

In terms of how close the Northwest is, I think antibody testing in May or June was running about 12%, and there is, to steal a phrase from somewhere, a growing body of evidence that actual infections and immunity is up to around 3x the easily-detected antibody level. That would suggest that the northwest may have been over halfway to immunity by the end of the first wave.

 

[Jamesrob637]

So London is definitely going to T2 from next week?

 

[Yew]

In addition to points about population distribution earlier, 60% is the estimated tipping point if you like - there is still a degree of protective effect at lower levels and the closer you get to that point the less exponential the growth in infections. Pair that with some relatively light restrictions and the numbers infected might actually start to shrink.

Another thing to consider is that 60% is for an unmitigated scenario, where we're all living our Normal lives. If restrictions bring the R down to 1.5 as an example, then we would need a lower percentage

I think the proportion of people needed (times by 100 for a percentage) would be defined as below, where R is the R value including mitigations.

P_i = 1-(1/R)

The caveat being that without a realistic understanding of the level of immunity, we can't work out the actual effect of our mitigations, as the "Apparent R" is based on both the "Mitigation only R" and the immunity prevelence

 

[Trackman]

I must have been educated (if indeed I was) in more leisured times - we had 1hr 25 minutes 12.30 p.m. to 1.55 p.m. Personally, I'd have liked to lose 40 mins there so we could come out at 3.20 p.m. rather than 4 p.m., but that may have been more the fact that then we'd have encountered the pupils from the local girls' school rather than always miss them!

12.25 to 1.45 in my day.
Method in the madness though- @Howardh has mentioned two dinner sittings, plus sports etc.. I've just mentioned this to the other half, what dinner at lunch time??.. meh.. yeah whatever.

Most likely Friday, possibly with Lancashire.

And just with my independent local pub has bought more ale in and tapped it yesterday.
Burnham is having kittens again.

 

[Horizon22]

Media reporting that they expect that Manchester and Lancashire are going to Tier 3 within 24h.

 

[island]

So London is definitely going to T2 from next week?

Nothing is definite until it’s announced and the statutory instrument is published.

 

[talltim]

Surely it’s actually a 5 tier system? Just there are no areas at no risk and low risk.

 

[Freightmaster]

Media reporting that they expect that Manchester and Lancashire are going to Tier 3 within 24h.

Which specific part(s) of Lancashire?

As I understand it, the tier system goes by local authority (e.g. Blackburn and Darwen,
Blackpool, Preston are currently in the 'high' tier) rather than by County?





MARK

 

[Crossover]

I must have been educated (if indeed I was) in more leisured times - we had 1hr 25 minutes 12.30 p.m. to 1.55 p.m. Personally, I'd have liked to lose 40 mins there so we could come out at 3.20 p.m. rather than 4 p.m., but that may have been more the fact that then we'd have encountered the pupils from the local girls' school rather than always miss them!

Ours were 12:25-13:00 and 12:55-13:30. It was a big school (1800 students, roughly, across 7 years inc 6th form) so one big sitting wasn't feasible, plus it meant we finished the school day at 15:00. Anyway, this is going way off topic, so I'll leave it at that

 

[Steveoh]

It doesn't take anyone an hour to eat a typical school or packed lunch. So you've got a natural split there - half an hour in the dinner hall, half an hour elsewhere just having a break.

Where there's a will there's a way. Take our local secondary school - each year has their own social area and designated area for eating lunch. The school have purchased those trolley things that you use to serve meals from, so each year has their own place within their social area to obtain lunch. Each year has their own set of classrooms where they have lessons. They've asked that children bring packed lunches but still have a hot meal available. Works fine. Over two schools I have interaction with there has been 1 case, no spread. This is in stark contrast to the students in our area with 1000s of cases in a much shorter period of time.

Most schools here have had the odd case, but it doesn't appear to spread from pupil to pupil.

 

[big_rig]

The Guardian reporting that London is going to tier 2 as of midnight Friday. Many thanks to Sadiq Khan for his staunch activism on this . I give him a week before he calls for tier 3, and one hour before he bemoans the Government not giving London enough money to pay for all the people who won't be allowed to go to work (as he has demanded happen).

BREAKING - No household mixing indoors anywhere in London from midnight on Friday. People are discouraged from using public transport. Schools, universities and places of worship remain open. All businesses and venues can continue to operate.

UK Covid: Andy Burnham says England's north must not be 'sacrificial lamb' for flawed lockdowns – as it happened

London, Essex, York and north-east Derbyshire among areas put into tier 2 restrictions

www.theguardian.com

 

[kristiang85]

London is going into Tier 2 on Saturday apparently.

That's a pain; I had plans with old friends which can't happen now as we are all from different households. So that's already a couple of hospitality venues losing out on some income.

 

[railways45021]

Will people still be allowed to trainspot at train stations in teir 3 areas or will it not be allowed

 

[DB]

London is going into Tier 2 on Saturday apparently.

That's a pain; I had plans with old friends which can't happen now as we are all from different households. So that's already a couple of hospitality venues losing out on some income.

I would guess that it will be even more unenforceable in London than in most of the country, given that the 'minding your own business' attitude is much more prevalent there in most aspects of life.

 

[Howardh]

If Manchester goes into 3, what is the legal requirement r/e travel? As I understand, they are asking people not to travel unless necessary or essential. Is that the actual wording? If so, I can't see how that could stand up in law if challenged, thinking I could have a day out in the Peak District by train.

If I were challenged and it was only "advisory" do I have the right to silence or to say, politely, mind your own business?

Like probably 99% of the population, I haven't a clue what's going on. Other than i think I can go the Goose in Manchester for a Ploughman's and a pint in T3...I think?

 

[Yew]

Looking at some of the numbers in the hotspots, they seem to have been levelling off already; which is embarrassing for Boris, as it's before any of the latest measures could have had any effect.

 

[kristiang85]

I've just thought, wasn't there meant to be a big anti lockdown protest in London this Saturday? Now that's the day Tier 2 is imposed, I can see that getting ugly.

(maybe this is probably more appropriate for the protest thread, but that seems to have been locked).

 

[Philip]

If Manchester goes into 3, what is the legal requirement r/e travel? As I understand, they are asking people not to travel unless necessary or essential. Is that the actual wording? If so, I can't see how that could stand up in law if challenged, thinking I could have a day out in the Peak District by train.

If I were challenged and it was only "advisory" do I have the right to silence or to say, politely, mind your own business?

Like probably 99% of the population, I haven't a clue what's going on. Other than i think I can go the Goose in Manchester for a Ploughman's and a pint in T3...I think?

I think it's really a case of common sense re travel, ie. drive if possible, if not then adhere to the social distancing and face covering rules on public transport. Perhaps avoid going in pubs in other areas and keep shopping to within your own region. I think so long as you take responsibility and minimize the chances of potentially spreading anything then it should be ok. It isn't a travel ban and that's that.

 

[Howardh]

I've just thought, wasn't there meant to be a big anti lockdown protest in London this Saturday? Now that's the day Tier 2 is imposed, I can see that getting ugly.

(maybe this is probably more appropriate for the protest thread, but that seems to have been locked).

I'm one of those anti-lockdown YET I'd support a 2-3wk total lockdown - and that means everything - even though I'm against it.

Think what Imean is I hate this wishy-washy approach where things are made up on the hoof, but worst of all is that they are hitting the wrong targets so the current lockdowns are futile, we're suffering for nothing.

Even so, if they had the fortnight's curcuit-breaker, it might bring the figures down substantially, but the minute the kids go back to school and colleges, up they go again, back into lockdown and repeat.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Nothing is definite until it’s announced and the statutory instrument is published.

Well it looks that way now. Good: I don't think London deserves 3, but a 2 is a compromise.

 

[Trackman]

Word coming out Essex is being moved into tier 2

 

[philjo]

BBC reporting that Essex is also expected to move to Tier 2 on Saturday.