England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Nicholas Lewis]

I don't think any of us appreciated at the time how good for the country the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition was. It was only when there was a majority Tory government that we found out how the Lib Dems had kept the more extreme elements of the Conservatives in check.

Spot on and more fool the liberals that moaned about what there party had agreed to and then duly voted for the other parties in 2015 causing this chaos ever since. Germany has been run by a grand coalition since the 50's and its hasn't harmed them one iota.

 

[HSTEd]

SAGE are just horrified that it is their class that is being considered to make the sacrifice for the good of society.

It is the place of the young and poor to die for society, not the rich and connected old.

 

[packermac]

The papers can be (and are, but could be more rapidly) in public. These scientists however have no right to go whinging on Twitter or writing opinion pieces in the Guardian about how the Government should have followed SAGE's advice and they're killing people by not having done so.

The Permanent Secretary of the DfT doesn't go and moan on Sky News every time the Secretary of State makes a decision that goes against their advice. Imagine that! The SoS decides that funding X improvement isn't a priority and the Perm Sec jumps into an interview on TV saying that they're killing people because they didn't fund every single railway upgrade, which means there'll be one more car accident in the UK over a year, and that Boris should lie awake at night thinking about it!

No the Civil Service just leak decisions they do not like to the media as some "anonymous source".

 

[birchesgreen]

I'm not sure it's so much the size of the classrooms. When walking to town I pass a secondary school, and it quite visible that there's no distancing going on both in the playground and when they're hanging around the alley-way which cuts through the school site.

Whether we should expect secondary age pupils to distance is perhaps a matter for debate, however there's no point in spacing out the desks if people are going to be all over each other in the playground or on their way to/from school.

Well its outside school too. Near where i live at one of the bus stops there will be usually 30-40 schoolchildren all mingling, from different schools too. The only way you are going to get school children to social distance is by closing the schools, and that can't happen.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Then we need universities to move online (except bookable, distanced, masked-unless-exempt use of e.g. labs), and we need to redesign schooling to allow 1m distancing to be maintained.

Actually universities, especially halls of residence have had huge levels of infection, so have probably the highest percentage of the population that have had the virus. Granted any immunity conferred appears time limited but this means this group are much less exposed than others and actually they ought to be researching it more closely to see what can be drawn from it.

Newcastles two universities accounted for over 4000 of Newcastle area cases over the last few weeks and with the restricted movement of the students infection rates are showing decline across the four central districts of Newcastle now. This ought to keep NE in Tier 2. Central Manchester districts are showing reduced rates on consecutive days this week but outer districts still creeping up. This to me is natural spread and in all probability students have caused this spike up and it ripples out but like a pebble in a pond the ripples decay naturally the further you get from the outbreak cluster.

 

[Ianno87]

I agree that if we are to have a short circuit breaker lockdown that it would be more effective if schools were closed and to base it around the school holiday would seem to be a sensible idea.

Once again it is the balance between health and economics. Having a lockdown based around a school holiday would disrupt education of children the least and it would stop lots of people travelling as it is the last really busy holiday week before Christmas. However, many holiday attractions, hotels and other accommodation are desperately relying on this half term for a boost to keep them afloat after a very difficult summer. I’ve read that lots of UK holiday accommodation is fully booked for this half term week. Having a lockdown at half term may be the best time to temporarily suppress the spread of the virus but would also hit the hospitality industry very badly. I just hope that the government takes any decision quickly and not leave it until the night before after everyone has packed their cases and pubs, restaurants, hotels etc have got stocked up for a busy week.

And many families (including mine), who have already made major sacrifices this year had been pinning half-term as a sort of consolation opportinity to actuslly get out and enjoy hospitality and leisure activities. Oh well.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well its outside school too. Near where i live at one of the bus stops there will be usually 30-40 schoolchildren all mingling, from different schools too. The only way you are going to get school children to social distance is by closing the schools, and that can't happen.

National surveillance report shows incident rate in the 10-19 year old groups is nearly 5 times the rate for 60+ age groups although those groups are picking up as well. This outbreak was inevitable with schools and unis going back and the elderly and vulnerable should have been warned of the risk and recommended to shield for September to let in work through so they weren't exposed. We seem to have forgotten everything we learned back in April/May.

 

[packermac]

So what I do not understand (and this is a genuine question) is how those who object to lockdowns, circuit break, any form of restriction to life or push Herd Immunity ( a posh phrase for Survival of the Fittest) plan that the NHS handles Covid patients? Although I suspect pushing water uphill would be easier than getting any politician, regardless of party, to agree to the NHS not treating everyone fairly.

Is it that hospitals stop admitting anyone with Covid and just carry on with their “normal activities?” Would people be asked why they want an ambulance, and if the symptoms sound like Covid it is refused?

Would it be that only people under a certain age would be eligible for Covid treatment?

Would someone admitted, say due to a fall, but is subsequently shown to be a Covid case as well be “kicked out” of hospital.

Would foreign visitors be treated but not UK citizens?

How to you “shield the elderly” as some have suggested, and let the rest get on with life?

We have been basically shielding due to my wife’s medical state since two weeks before the official lockdown. But in that time she has had to visit Poole Hospital three times, a private Poole Hospital (for a CT scan), & the GP surgery twice. We both had to visit the GP Surgery other Saturday for flu jabs on what I call “sheep dip Saturday”. This is where loads of old and vulnerable people are being pushed through like sheep, although I admit this year the flock was smaller as I think it must be over more weekends. Add to this a weekly Tesco home delivery, numerous delivery drivers from on line shopping, a plumber and soon both the burglar alarm and water softener engineer as both items have issues. You can only shield so much from human contact there will always be contact.

Do care home workers have to live in at those care homes or just import the virus from elsewhere?

When people need ventilating will that be refused and will they be left to die in pain at home. The UK will not allow patients with terminal diseases to end their own life, or go to place like Dignatas, so no one will be able to put them out of their misery without risk of jail.

I am 68 and my wife 70 with no children so yes I admit you could argue we offer nothing to society, in fact often thought that myself. However lots of people appear to be very family orientated, apart of course from the free childcare offered by parent and grandparents for a lot of the year.

The aim of virtually every government around the world has been to stop their health service becoming overwhelmed. Yet it appears even with current attempts to reduce spread in the UK ICU beds are in short supply and at least one hospital was saying they will have to turn an operating theatre into an ICU ward.

So what is this “magic bullet” that all these governments have missed along with me, as I cannot see how you choose who lives and who dies, that is after all the role of Doctors, even if they do not like it.

So can one of you (or more) please explain your solution to me?

 

[DB]

Worth pointing out the idea of on and off lockdowns (where we have a period of some fairly harsh restrictions followed by a period of less harsh restrictions, followed by another period of harsh, then another period of less harsh etc) was an idea banded about a few months ago when we were in our initial one.

Well, if they want to bankrupt loads more businesses this woud certainly be a very effective way to go about it!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Oct 2020 ==

So what I do not understand (and this is a genuine question) is how those who object to lockdowns, circuit break, any form of restriction to life or push Herd Immunity ( a posh phrase for Survival of the Fittest) plan that the NHS handles Covid patients? Although I suspect pushing water uphill would be easier than getting any politician, regardless of party, to agree to the NHS not treating everyone fairly.

If you think that herd immunity and survival of the fittest mean the same thing, then you don't fully understand one or both of the terms.

There is no evidence yet that the NHS is anywhere even close to having capacity problems. If a hotspot runs out of space, use facilities somewhere else. Unless all of them are getting close to capacity at the same time that shouldn't be an issue.

 

[HSTEd]

Is it that hospitals stop admitting anyone with Covid and just carry on with their “normal activities?” Would people be asked why they want an ambulance, and if the symptoms sound like Covid it is refused?

Hospitals have well established triage procedures for use in mass casualty incidents or (although seldom practiced) epidemics.

This sort of thing is hardly unknown in human history after all.

How to you “shield the elderly” as some have suggested, and let the rest get on with life?

We have been basically shielding due to my wife’s medical state since two weeks before the official lockdown. But in that time she has had to visit Poole Hospital three times, a private Poole Hospital (for a CT scan), & the GP surgery twice. We both had to visit the GP Surgery other Saturday for flu jabs on what I call “sheep dip Saturday”. This is where loads of old and vulnerable people are being pushed through like sheep, although I admit this year the flock was smaller as I think it must be over more weekends. Add to this a weekly Tesco home delivery, numerous delivery drivers from on line shopping, a plumber and soon both the burglar alarm and water softener engineer as both items have issues. You can only shield so much from human contact there will always be contact.

Well four trips to hospital in six months isn't too many really.
If it is allowed to burn through it will be done in three or four months anyway.

That's the major feature of exponentials, once they get rolling it will be over quickly.

A Circuit breaker just after the peak of the epidemic can shorten it significantly by cutting the "tail" off.

Do care home workers have to live in at those care homes or just import the virus from elsewhere?

Giving care home workers extar money to live in or next to the homes in tents would be cheaper than what we are currently doing by a couple orders of magnitude.

The aim of virtually every government around the world has been to stop their health service becoming overwhelmed. Yet it appears even with current attempts to reduce spread in the UK ICU beds are in short supply and at least one hospital was saying they will have to turn an operating theatre into an ICU ward.

Even amongst the general population survival once you are in an ICU ward is only 60%.
Even if ICU was replaced with a pistol it would only about double the number of dead.

So itw ould take us from ~180k additional dead to about 350k even if we just shot all coronavirus patients who needed the ICU, which we are claerly not going to do.

 

[radamfi]

If the government announced that it would be "survival of the fittest", because there is no other option, intensive care would be unlikely to be overloaded because the over 70s would be scared witless to go out.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I don't think any of us appreciated at the time how good for the country the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition was. It was only when there was a majority Tory government that we found out how the Lib Dems had kept the more extreme elements of the Conservatives in check.

And the Lib Dems got punished for it - even though it was the lesser of two evils.

That government did indeed work very well, however I think the success of that was due to Cameron and Clegg. I can't imagine it working at the moment with the current sewer-grade politicians. As an aside I think history has judged Nick Clegg rather unfairly.

Bojo and Corbyn would be interesting.

I think it's a big stretch to regard Cameron and Clegg as being good leadership.

The fact that they were better than the current lot is more a demonstration of just how bad the current lot are!

Fraid so.

Leisure centres, school gyms/halls/sports halls etc. Classrooms are clearly too small and teachers don't grow on trees, however there are other, larger buildings where you could get sets of 30 kids in with 1m or even 2m between desks.

Would help if class sizes were made smaller. Teachers might be able to cover this if they did not have to mark homework and do all the other stuff I used to see my mother doing at home.

I thought schools had arranged themselves so that different year groups got breaks at different times.

 

[HSTEd]

And the Lib Dems got punished for it - even though it was the lesser of two evils.

Well if they hadn't lied about a policy that won them huge numbers of votes it is possible the outcome of the election would have been different.

Indeed that policy has done more than anything to destroy the union.
But oh well "lesser of two evils".

 

[Ianno87]

.

I thought schools had arranged themselves so that different year groups got breaks at different times.

Doesn't work at lunchtime:

-Everybody needs an hour, to eat without getting indegestion and a proper break.
-Even with accepting up to two year groups overlapping, a secondary school needs 3 hours to cover all years
-So either a very early or very late lunch for some!
-And if you can't do it at lunch, little point in orchestrating it for breaks either

 

[Bletchleyite]

Doesn't work at lunchtime:

-Everybody needs an hour, to eat without getting indegestion and a proper break.
-Even with accepting up to two year groups overlapping, a secondary school needs 3 hours to cover all years
-So either a very early or very late lunch for some!
-And if you can't do it at lunch, little point in orchestrating it for breaks either

It doesn't take anyone an hour to eat a typical school or packed lunch. So you've got a natural split there - half an hour in the dinner hall, half an hour elsewhere just having a break.

 

[Ianno87]

It doesn't take anyone an hour to eat a typical school or packed lunch. So you've got a natural split there - half an hour in the dinner hall, half an hour elsewhere just having a break.

Cycling 5 year groups through a dining hall with 30 minutes each would still take 2.5 hours.

 

[Richard Scott]

Quick question but how many cases have been attributed to schools? In my local area I believe it's a grand total of none.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cycling 5 year groups through a dining hall with 30 minutes each would still take 2.5 hours.

I'm not sure why that would be a problem; first sitting 11:30am (a *bit* early but not stupidly so, particularly as 12 noon is the norm), last sitting 1:30pm.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Oct 2020 ==

Quick question but how many cases have been attributed to schools? In my local area I believe it's a grand total of none.

You've not had a single class go into isolation because of a case? Really? Loads round here.

 

[Richard Scott]

You've not had a single class go into isolation because of a case? Really? Loads round here.

Honestly no we haven't, had a few tested but negative. Hence why I asked.

 

[Busaholic]

Really? They had the level of testing they do now back in March/April?

And your point is?...

 

[Ianno87]

Reasonably decent run-down of the Cambridgeshire school situation (where Covid rates have been generally low anyway)

The Cambridgeshire schools with confirmed coronavirus cases

More schools have reported coronavirus cases this week

www.google.com

Coronavirus outbreaks have hit several schools in Cambridgeshire this week.

Dozens of pupils and staff members have been forced to self-isolate after coming into contact with positive cases, as per government guidelines for schools.

Although in all cases, procedures / guidelines seem to have been sufficient already to prevent an 'outbreak', without needing a lockdown.

My 2 year old's nursery seems to be sending an e-mail every time a child has a cough, needing a Covid test as a result.

 

[ChrisC]

Sorry if this question has already been asked but it all gets so complicated.

I live in a Tier 2 area and I was planning on going on a walking holiday at the end of next week staying in a hotel in a Tier 1 area. If my home area of Nottinghamshire was to be raised to Tier 3 whilst I was away, where overnight stays are not permitted, would I have to return home or could I stay until the end of my holiday.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's guidance, so whatever you consider sensible.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

As Scotland has already started its two week circuit breaker lockdown, surely the best thing for England would be to wait and see if the Scottish one has any significant effect on the spread of the virus? If, as I suspect, the effect is minimal it will prove that there's no point in having s similar lockdown in England.

 

[ChrisC]

As Scotland has already started its two week circuit breaker lockdown, surely the best thing for England would be to wait and see if the Scottish one has any significant effect on the spread of the virus? If, as I suspect, the effect is minimal it will prove that there's no point in having s similar lockdown in England.

But that is too sensible!
We will also be able to see what happens in a Northern Ireland now too.

 

[HSTEd]

As Scotland has already started its two week circuit breaker lockdown, surely the best thing for England would be to wait and see if the Scottish one has any significant effect on the spread of the virus? If, as I suspect, the effect is minimal it will prove that there's no point in having s similar lockdown in England.

It has?

 

[island]

Doesn't work at lunchtime:

-Everybody needs an hour, to eat without getting indegestion and a proper break.
-Even with accepting up to two year groups overlapping, a secondary school needs 3 hours to cover all years
-So either a very early or very late lunch for some!
-And if you can't do it at lunch, little point in orchestrating it for breaks either

I never had an hour at lunch in the entire time I was in school.

 

[Ianno87]

I never had an hour at lunch in the entire time I was in school.

...which was when?

 

[birchesgreen]

I never had an hour at lunch in the entire time I was in school.

I did, thus our meaningless anecdotes cancel each other out.

Our lunch hour was unusually 13:20-14:20 to try and avoid lunchtime fights between my inner city hell hole comp and the adjoining inner city hell hole comp...

 

[Bikeman78]

I'm not sure it's so much the size of the classrooms. When walking to town I pass a secondary school, and it quite visible that there's no distancing going on both in the playground and when they're hanging around the alley-way which cuts through the school site.

Whether we should expect secondary age pupils to distance is perhaps a matter for debate, however there's no point in spacing out the desks if people are going to be all over each other in the playground or on their way to/from school.

Trying to get children to stay apart is an utter waste of time. We can all bang on about should or shouldn't happen but, like you, I can see what happens in the real world. My children's school has semi permanently closed one gate which simply increases the overcrowding at the other gate. The kids from the high school that walk past my house are walking in groups and messing about just like children always have done and always will do.