England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Bletchleyite]

I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that SAGE itself is not fit for purpose, and should be disbanded in favour of a committee of scientists, economists and medical professional who could advise the government on COVID-19 policy, and would be subject to the same confidentiality and impartiality rules as civil servants. (ie no leaking stuff to the press, and no throwing your toys out of the pram if the government doesn't do what you want them to do)

No, no, no, no and again no.

This should be out in public, all of it.

 

[WelshBluebird]

And same lunatics in SAGE are suggesting that it is too late to have a circuit breaker lockdown over the half terms, so instead we should have a three week lockdown over Christmas & the New Year. Yes you read that right. They would want all restaurants, pubs and bars closed from about December 20th to January 5th, to coincide with the Christmas school holidays.

"Hello - what's the weather like on Mars today?" - because you must be living on another planet if you think that the population are going to stand for this, and it shows how completely detached from reality all the SAGE scientists really are.

I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that SAGE itself is not fit for purpose, and should be disbanded in favour of a committee of scientists, economists and medical professional who could advise the government on COVID-19 policy, and would be subject to the same confidentiality and impartiality rules as civil servants. (ie no leaking stuff to the press, and no throwing your toys out of the pram if the government doesn't do what you want them to do)

I think Boris Johnson knows full well that closing the country down over the festive season would be the last straw for many people, who would be seriously p****d off and would blame him.

Even Ebenezer Scrooge allowed Bob Cratchit to have Christmas Day off.

Once again I think people are missing the point a little here.
At the moment SAGE's job is to advice on the scientific and medical data relating to COVID-19.
They are not economists and are not meant to fill that role.
If the government wants economic advice then they should consult economists.
It is the governments job to decide how to balance the different advice it gets. Quite often like in this case that will mean trying to balance contradicting advice where what is best for one side will be bad for the other side and vice versa.
It really isn't surprising that a group that is currently tasked with advising about how to reduce the spread of a virus suggest measures to reduce the spread of the virus whilst not worrying about the economy. It is the governments job to then take that advice and balance it with the worries about protecting the economy.

Remember - Christmas itself is a time where a hell of a lot of travelling occurs. That will spread the virus. To suggest otherwise is stupid.
Now, should we prevent that travelling to stop that spread? I think probably not, as clearly do you. But that is for the government to weigh up rather than SAGE.

 

[Trackman]

Starmer yet again suggesting a circuit breaker at PMQ's today.

That's my support for him gone - he can bugger off. Are there any decent people out there to lead this country?

He's been upsetting Bolton's tory leader as well.

BOLTON LEADER DEMANDS KIER STARMER RETRACTS HIS STATEMENT AT PMQs
Cllr David Greenhalgh said he was disgusted and appalled that he had been misrepresented by the Labour Leader at PMQs, and said it represented the very worst kind of politics!
Cllr David Greenhalgh said," Let me be very clear. I am not in support of a circuit break at this time. Every GM Leader knows that that is my position and that I refused to sign a document that stated this. The document then was amended to state 'a number of leaders' within GM had a circuit break as their preference."
Cllr Greenhalgh is asking for an apology and a correction from the Labour Leader, and has already received assurances from Labour sources that media will be briefed following PMQs that he was misrepresented.

 

[packermac]

No, no, no, no and again no.

This should be out in public, all of it.

Agree fully. I have seen lots of posts on here about how the government just blindly follow SAGE. Now they have done something based on other factors as well it seems that is wrong as well.

 

[Peter Sarf]

And same lunatics in SAGE are suggesting that it is too late to have a circuit breaker lockdown over the half terms, so instead we should have a three week lockdown over Christmas & the New Year. Yes you read that right. They would want all restaurants, pubs and bars closed from about December 20th to January 5th, to coincide with the Christmas school holidays.

"Hello - what's the weather like on Mars today?" - because you must be living on another planet if you think that the population are going to stand for this, and it shows how completely detached from reality all the SAGE scientists really are.

I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that SAGE itself is not fit for purpose, and should be disbanded in favour of a committee of scientists, economists and medical professional who could advise the government on COVID-19 policy, and would be subject to the same confidentiality and impartiality rules as civil servants. (ie no leaking stuff to the press, and no throwing your toys out of the pram if the government doesn't do what you want them to do)

I think Boris Johnson knows full well that closing the country down over the festive season would be the last straw for many people, who would be seriously p****d off and would blame him.

Even Ebenezer Scrooge allowed Bob Cratchit to have Christmas Day off.

Actually I would suggest that the medical experts, including SAGE, should be left alone to propose what is necessary. They should ignore the economic and social consequences as that is not part of their field of expertise. THEN the politicians and economists can amend that wish list to be more realistic. Realistic means what the economy can afford AND what people will put up with. The result, for now, is the three tier system and i hope it stands the test of time.

But I bet things are pretty obviously bad by the time Christmas approaches. Personally I am hunkering down for the winter but that is my 60 year old choice. But I will still have to go to work and so making sure my old car is up to it is a priority.

EDIT :- @WelshBluebird, you beat me to it !.

 

[big_rig]

Agree fully. I have seen lots of posts on here about how the government just blindly follow SAGE. Now they have done something based on other factors as well it seems that is wrong as well.

The papers can be (and are, but could be more rapidly) in public. These scientists however have no right to go whinging on Twitter or writing opinion pieces in the Guardian about how the Government should have followed SAGE's advice and they're killing people by not having done so.

The Permanent Secretary of the DfT doesn't go and moan on Sky News every time the Secretary of State makes a decision that goes against their advice. Imagine that! The SoS decides that funding X improvement isn't a priority and the Perm Sec jumps into an interview on TV saying that they're killing people because they didn't fund every single railway upgrade, which means there'll be one more car accident in the UK over a year, and that Boris should lie awake at night thinking about it!

 

[bramling]

Michael Portillo, going by his excellent performance on Question Time the other day.

He even has bizarre middle names, just like Boris!


I doubt he will fancy coming out of retirement though...






MARK

In the absence of Mrs Thatcher I’d quite happily take Portillo at this moment. He’d have been light years ahead of BJ in the first place.

 

[DB]

Actually I would suggest that the medical experts, including SAGE, should be left alone to propose what is necessary. They should ignore the economic and social consequences as that is not part of their field of expertise. THEN the politicians and economists can amend that wish list to be more realistic. Realistic means what the economy can afford AND what people will put up with. The result is the three tier system.

I think the problem is that SAGE are talking to the media about this - and they are only considering the Covid implications and seemingly pretty much ignoring all other health implications. Economists are not being given any such platform so that aspect is absent.

The result of this is that the public message is being skewed towards the more extreme view.

I don't actually think it's particularly helpful to have all this in the public arena, and it would be far more helpful if there was a balanced group, including economists and medics, advising on this - and there should be separate people advising on Covid implications and other health implications to prevent the other implications from being ignored. Such a body should not be allowed to talk direct to the press. What we are seeing is that the extreme lockdown view is being given by SAGE to the press, and Starmer, etc, are seizing on this and using it to try to push the government to ever more extreme measures. This is really not helping.

In the interests of transparency the minutes of such a group should be published, but only with a suitable time delay (say a month) to prevent it from being used to justify knee-jerk reactions from the opposition.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The papers can be (and are, but could be more rapidly) in public. These scientists however have no right to go whinging on Twitter or writing opinion pieces in the Guardian about how the Government should have followed SAGE's advice and they're killing people by not having done so.

.......

Well it is freedom of speech and best there are no secrets. My hope is that the stricter alternative that the scientists allude to will sober up some of the three-tier whingers. We have to carry the public with us.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Oct 2020 ==


Separately from above :-

Does occur to me that perhaps the time is coming for a coalition. So like a war the masses are "presented" with what is decided - a common message. Is it that bad yet ?. Be thankful for democracy and the three tier system ?.

 

[adc82140]

Well it is freedom of speech and best there are no secrets. My hope is that the stricter alternative that the scientists allude to will sober up some of the three-tier whingers. We have to carry the public with us.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Oct 2020 ==


Separately from above :-

Does occur to me that perhaps the time is coming for a coalition. So like a war the masses are "presented" with what is decided - a common message. Is it that bad yet ?. Be thankful for democracy and the three tier system ?.

I don't think any of us appreciated at the time how good for the country the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition was. It was only when there was a majority Tory government that we found out how the Lib Dems had kept the more extreme elements of the Conservatives in check.

 

[bramling]

I don't think any of us appreciated at the time how good for the country the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition was. It was only when there was a majority Tory government that we found out how the Lib Dems had kept the more extreme elements of the Conservatives in check.

That government did indeed work very well, however I think the success of that was due to Cameron and Clegg. I can't imagine it working at the moment with the current sewer-grade politicians. As an aside I think history has judged Nick Clegg rather unfairly.

 

[Ianno87]

I don't think any of us appreciated at the time how good for the country the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition was. It was only when there was a majority Tory government that we found out how the Lib Dems had kept the more extreme elements of the Conservatives in check.

Strange that in 2010, the concept of having a hung parliament and thus a coalition seemed to spook everybody, the stock markets etc.... even though they're perfectly normal in other countries.

 

[bramling]

Strange that in 2010, the concept of having a hung parliament and thus a coalition seemed to spook everybody, the stock markets etc.... even though they're perfectly normal in other countries.

I think the big scary one is any prospect of a coalition involving the SNP.

 

[DB]

That government did indeed work very well, however I think the success of that was due to Cameron and Clegg. I can't imagine it working at the moment with the current sewer-grade politicians. As an aside I think history has judged Nick Clegg rather unfairly.

I think it's a big stretch to regard Cameron and Clegg as being good leadership.

The fact that they were better than the current lot is more a demonstration of just how bad the current lot are!

 

[bramling]

I think it's a big stretch to regard Cameron and Clegg as being good leadership.

The fact that they were better than the current lot is more a demonstration of just how bad the current lot are!

Yes it's all relative!

 

[Bantamzen]

And same lunatics in SAGE are suggesting that it is too late to have a circuit breaker lockdown over the half terms, so instead we should have a three week lockdown over Christmas & the New Year. Yes you read that right. They would want all restaurants, pubs and bars closed from about December 20th to January 5th, to coincide with the Christmas school holidays.

"Hello - what's the weather like on Mars today?" - because you must be living on another planet if you think that the population are going to stand for this, and it shows how completely detached from reality all the SAGE scientists really are.

I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that SAGE itself is not fit for purpose, and should be disbanded in favour of a committee of scientists, economists and medical professional who could advise the government on COVID-19 policy, and would be subject to the same confidentiality and impartiality rules as civil servants. (ie no leaking stuff to the press, and no throwing your toys out of the pram if the government doesn't do what you want them to do)

I think Boris Johnson knows full well that closing the country down over the festive season would be the last straw for many people, who would be seriously p****d off and would blame him.

Even Ebenezer Scrooge allowed Bob Cratchit to have Christmas Day off.

So their answer is "We didn't get our shiny lockdown when we wanted, so let's have it when you don't want it the most". Quite honestly sounds more like they are taking their bat & ball home than following any kind of science. Time they are moved on methinks.

 

[takno]

So their answer is "We didn't get our shiny lockdown when we wanted, so let's have it when you don't want it the most". Quite honestly sounds more like they are taking their bat & ball home than following any kind of science. Time they are moved on methinks.

I think what they are trying to say is "we actually need schools closed for a week as part of this circuit breaker otherwise it won't work". If that's the case then that's the advice they should be giving to the government. Just assuming that that has to happen on an existing holiday is adding in restrictions that have no scientific basis. The government can decide that politically or educationally that's the only acceptable time, but for the scientists it's very much not in their job description

 

[bramling]

I think what they are trying to say is "we actually need schools closed for a week as part of this circuit breaker otherwise it won't work". If that's the case then that's the advice they should be giving to the government. Just assuming that that has to happen on an existing holiday is adding in restrictions that have no scientific basis. The government can decide that politically or educationally that's the only acceptable time, but for the scientists it's very much not in their job description

It seems highly likely we're going to get this starting the week after next (AIUI that's half term for most?). If we're going to get it then I wish they'd just announce it so that everyone can plan. There will be utter fury if we get some late-night announcement some time next week.

I just don't think Boris is going to have the confidence to ride out these demands coming from various different directions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think what they are trying to say is "we actually need schools closed for a week as part of this circuit breaker otherwise it won't work". If that's the case then that's the advice they should be giving to the government. Just assuming that that has to happen on an existing holiday is adding in restrictions that have no scientific basis. The government can decide that politically or educationally that's the only acceptable time, but for the scientists it's very much not in their job description

I certainly think it requires school closures, yes, so school holidays are a sensible time for it. Even SAGE believe schools and universities (other than possibly primary schools) are a big cause of spread.

Then we need universities to move online (except bookable, distanced, masked-unless-exempt use of e.g. labs), and we need to redesign schooling to allow 1m distancing to be maintained.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think what they are trying to say is "we actually need schools closed for a week as part of this circuit breaker otherwise it won't work". If that's the case then that's the advice they should be giving to the government. Just assuming that that has to happen on an existing holiday is adding in restrictions that have no scientific basis. The government can decide that politically or educationally that's the only acceptable time, but for the scientists it's very much not in their job description

I certainly think it requires school closures, yes, so school holidays are a sensible time for it. Even SAGE believe schools and universities (other than possibly primary schools) are a big cause of spread.

Then we need universities to move online (except bookable, distanced, masked-unless-exempt use of e.g. labs), and we need to redesign schooling to allow 1m distancing to be maintained.

And when the schools return, and students on courses that need them to be in attendance? Kicking the can down the road, again?

 

[Bletchleyite]

And when the schools return, and students on courses that need them to be in attendance? Kicking the can down the road, again?

Until we hear news that a vaccine will be impossible, of course that's what is being done.

 

[duncanp]

I think what they are trying to say is "we actually need schools closed for a week as part of this circuit breaker otherwise it won't work". If that's the case then that's the advice they should be giving to the government. Just assuming that that has to happen on an existing holiday is adding in restrictions that have no scientific basis. The government can decide that politically or educationally that's the only acceptable time, but for the scientists it's very much not in their job description

Yes, the SAGE paper actually said that a circuit breaker lockdown where hospitality is closed but schools remain open would have less of an impact. This is at least a tacit recognition of the fact that the hospitality sector is not the main cause of this second wave.

Whether it is politically acceptable to close schools but keep pubs open is another matter.

But what is also important is what happens after the two weeks are up. Will the lockdown be extended, and if not do we just go back to as we were before with the 3 tier system?

 

[WelshBluebird]

Worth pointing out the idea of on and off lockdowns (where we have a period of some fairly harsh restrictions followed by a period of less harsh restrictions, followed by another period of harsh, then another period of less harsh etc) was an idea banded about a few months ago when we were in our initial one.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whether it is politically acceptable to close schools but keep pubs open is another matter.

What I think we need to do is to revisit how schools are operating, and replan that so a minimum of 1m social distancing can be maintained.

Due to the large number of asymptomatic cases, the "bubble" system is clearly not working.

 

[duncanp]

What I think we need to do is to revisit how schools are operating, and replan that so a minimum of 1m social distancing can be maintained.

Due to the large number of asymptomatic cases, the "bubble" system is clearly not working.

I agree.

This may involve pupils only being on the premises part time, or perhaps there are other buildings (eg a church hall, place of worship or community centre) which could be used for school purposes.

I think you also need to look at the policy of sending a whole year group or bubble home just because one pupil coughs once, as this is clogging up the testing system needlessly.

A pupil with a cough needs to be seen by a doctor (possibly remotely) to determine what further action is necessary.

If whole year groups are sent home just because of one cough then the school is effectively partially closed anyway, whether you like it or not.

 

[Crossover]

If whole year groups are sent home just because of one cough then the school is effectively partially closed anyway, whether you like it or not.

Yes and arguably more disruptive than just shutting again full stop (which we can't allow to happen IMO)

 

[Bletchleyite]

This may involve pupils only being on the premises part time, or perhaps there are other buildings (eg a church hall, place of worship or community centre) which could be used for school purposes.

Leisure centres, school gyms/halls/sports halls etc. Classrooms are clearly too small and teachers don't grow on trees, however there are other, larger buildings where you could get sets of 30 kids in with 1m or even 2m between desks.

 

[bramling]

Leisure centres, school gyms/halls/sports halls etc. Classrooms are clearly too small and teachers don't grow on trees, however there are other, larger buildings where you could get sets of 30 kids in with 1m or even 2m between desks.

I'm not sure it's so much the size of the classrooms. When walking to town I pass a secondary school, and it quite visible that there's no distancing going on both in the playground and when they're hanging around the alley-way which cuts through the school site.

Whether we should expect secondary age pupils to distance is perhaps a matter for debate, however there's no point in spacing out the desks if people are going to be all over each other in the playground or on their way to/from school.

 

[ChrisC]

I certainly think it requires school closures, yes, so school holidays are a sensible time for it. Even SAGE believe schools and universities (other than possibly primary schools) are a big cause of spread.

I agree that if we are to have a short circuit breaker lockdown that it would be more effective if schools were closed and to base it around the school holiday would seem to be a sensible idea.

Once again it is the balance between health and economics. Having a lockdown based around a school holiday would disrupt education of children the least and it would stop lots of people travelling as it is the last really busy holiday week before Christmas. However, many holiday attractions, hotels and other accommodation are desperately relying on this half term for a boost to keep them afloat after a very difficult summer. I’ve read that lots of UK holiday accommodation is fully booked for this half term week. Having a lockdown at half term may be the best time to temporarily suppress the spread of the virus but would also hit the hospitality industry very badly. I just hope that the government takes any decision quickly and not leave it until the night before after everyone has packed their cases and pubs, restaurants, hotels etc have got stocked up for a busy week.

 

[Bantamzen]

Until we hear news that a vaccine will be impossible, of course that's what is being done.

And that is what we cannot afford to do, because by the time any vaccine becomes widely available we might well have screwed up the economy, people's livelihoods, the NHS....

Still so long as they get their lockdowns, nothing else matters eh? Well until we have to pay for it all of course...