England's new three-tier lockdown system

[northernchris]

Not only the economic effects it would have, but the increased mental health problems this would cause too. The majority of these front bench MP's just don't seem to care about this atall. I for one have not heard any of them mentioning the mental health implications all these restrictions and lockdowns are having.

There's at least 1 MP that seems to be grasping the wider picture, which is a little reassuring

MPs Back Covid Lockdown Alert Levels And 10pm Curfew

Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP for Gainsborough, said rebels were trying to “hold [the government] to account” over the economy, adding no MP wants to let this thing rip”.

He said: “It’s up to us, it’s up to the older population, to take self responsibility and those who care for them. We have to shield elderly people. They are the people at risk, but we have to get the country back to work.

“We simply cannot go on bailing out businesses – we are going bankrupt. We have to allow people to work and therefore I think the whole approach needs to be changed.

“If we go on cancelling heart operations, if we drive people into mental health difficulties, if we close down businesses, we are paying a terrible price and there has to be a balance.”

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I suppose it depends on which set of figures you use, but whilst some London Boroughs have seen large increases (eg Kensington & Chelsea) other boroughs have seen their infection rate fall in the last week (eg Havering, Barking & Dagenham)

So the picture in London is not uniform, and policy decisions should reflect that.

So 30 boroughs had reduced 7 day averages today with 2 having increases - overall average is 84 across the city so at city wide level thats OK but some areas as you detail are significantly higher but the virus is like a pebble in a pond it ripples out but whether intervening at borough level will work let alone be enforceable is debatable.

 

[yorkie]

There's at least 1 MP that seems to be grasping the wider picture, which is a little reassuring

MPs Back Covid Lockdown Alert Levels And 10pm Curfew

We need a lot more like that.

I wonder how bad things will have to get before more people see the bigger picture.

 

[Cowley]

We need a lot more like that.

I wonder how bad things will have to get before more people see the bigger picture.

It feels at the moment that it’s going to carry on getting worse and at some point further down the line when the true extent of the damage becomes apparent there’s going to be a lot of people looking back on this with hindsight and saying it was all done wrong, even if they’re not saying it now.
God knows how many things we’ll lose in the future that’ll be blamed on this.

 

[Jamesrob637]

what would that achieve?

how often can we lock down for?

can we afford it?

Could save some more lives

Only for a couple of weeks

Short-term no but long-term yes

Need to message you about more walks whilst you're on

 

[HSTEd]

So Starmer now commands eternal lockdown.

 

[yorkie]

Could save some more lives

How will it actually save lives though? Presumably your are counting on a vaccine and your aim is to reduce the number of people in the age categories who are getting the vaccine from catching the virus before then, and in order to do that, people who have work at home jobs are to be protected and mental health is to be trashed while those who do essential work carry on working anyway, and at risk people don't need to "shield", is that right?

Only for a couple of weeks

What do you expect would happen to infection levels at the end of two weeks? And what will happen in the weeks following that?

Short-term no but long-term yes

So put the burden on the young then.

Need to message you about more walks whilst you're on

You are proposing banning walks though are you not?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The main effect of more restrictions will be that people will break more of them.

Thats fine as long people accept responsibility for there actions when there nan, aunty, sister, parent cant get an ambulance, is left in a corridor waiting for a bed let alone medical assistance. Of course they wont they will expect the state to be there for them as it always has been and this part of the problem. We have all become to expect too much and by and large western society have been able to deliver it but we are at the end of the road here and until the population is forced to face that reality that on this occasion we haven;t got your back so you need to behave responsibly.

 

[HSTEd]

Thats fine as long people accept responsibility for there actions when there nan, aunty, sister, parent cant get an ambulance, is left in a corridor waiting for a bed let alone medical assistance. Of course they wont they will expect the state to be there for them as it always has been and this part of the problem. We have all become to expect too much and by and large western society have been able to deliver it but we are at the end of the road here and until the population is forced to face that reality that on this occasion we haven;t got your back so you need to behave responsibly.

The state hasn't decided that it can't help.
The state has decided the young and poor will be liquidated so their chosen caste, the baby boomers, can cling to life for a few more years.

A state that can't help would not be turning the full apparatus of state coercion to ensure that those it wishes to survive survive at any cost.

 

[Richard Scott]

Thats fine as long people accept responsibility for there actions when there nan, aunty, sister, parent cant get an ambulance, is left in a corridor waiting for a bed let alone medical assistance. Of course they wont they will expect the state to be there for them as it always has been and this part of the problem. We have all become to expect too much and by and large western society have been able to deliver it but we are at the end of the road here and until the population is forced to face that reality that on this occasion we haven;t got your back so you need to behave responsibly.

Think you're forgetting we've put up with restrictions for best part of 7 months so expecting continual compliance is not realistic. Many are fed up and for their own wellbeing, and maybe for that of a family member, are ignoring certain rules. The virus is not the only issue out there, need to remember that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The state hasn't decided that it can't help.
The state has decided the young and poor will be liquidated so their chosen caste, the baby boomers, can cling to life for a few more years.

Certainly people in their teens and twenties are suffering. But the biggest push for measures seems to come from people in their 30s and 40s scared of losing their parents, and not from those parents who mostly would rather take the chance and enjoy a potentially smaller number of quality years over a potentially larger number of poor quality ones.

 

[HSTEd]

Ironically a reasonable strategy would actually be to cordon students in accomodation and then infect as many as possible as fast as possible.

Missed the window for that now because hospitals may struggle with the pulse from the (relatively) small number of complications from infecting a few million young people.

Should have been infecting (young, healthy) volunteers all summer long using all the out of action student accomodation and hotels.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ironically a reasonable strategy would actually be to cordon students in accomodation and then infect as many as possible as fast as possible.

When I heard about students going back I thought they were doing that, because in no other context did students going back make any sense at all.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Think you're forgetting we've put up with restrictions for best part of 7 months so expecting continual compliance is not realistic. Many are fed up and for their own wellbeing, and maybe for that of a family member, are ignoring certain rules. The virus is not the only issue out there, need to remember that.

Richard totally agree its not only the problem but unless society has it explained to them that for there to be something closer to the normality they have to come to expect there will be collateral damage from letting the virus work its way through society and that means people losing loved ones from it. This isn't an easy sell but equally there are as many people on the other side of the equation in the same situation because they aren't receiving treatment. My view remains that our society is banging up against the limits to what it can deliver and it needs a grown up conversation not the political bish bashing thats going on between Johnson & Starmer aided and abetted by Blackford & Davey.

 

[HSTEd]

When I heard about students going back I thought they were doing that, because in no other context did students going back make any sense at all.

Should have had students go back in June, and had parties in halls of residence every day!
Food and drink provided by the state.

We also have 750,000 hotel rooms in the UK.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

No doubt if cases go down the locktivists will say that it is proof that tougher restrictions work, and that they should be extended to the rest of the country. And if cases don't go down, they will say that tougher restrictions are required.

Ah, the tactic of The Tiger Horn Deceit,

(Villagers are told the only way to ward off marauding tigers is to use a Tiger Horn, even though the tigers have moved away and no longer present a threat)

 

[102 fan]

Could early 80's style rioting return to Liverpool when the unemployment rises?

 

[Peter Sarf]

It would help if they actually made that analysis and discussion public.

I can't help but have the impression that the only bad thing Governments really know what to deal with is wars, which breeds the "secret squirreling".

Maybe the government think the hidden reality you allude to is too unpalatable. Perhaps trigger mega panic buying. This tiered system is what people can relate too (maybe).

I suppose we did waste a whole load of shielding time trying to get cases down, rather than get it over with as quickly as possible.

But too quick = overrun hospitals = people dying who could have been saved.

Richard totally agree its not only the problem but unless society has it explained to them that for there to be something closer to the normality they have to come to expect there will be collateral damage from letting the virus work its way through society and that means people losing loved ones from it. This isn't an easy sell but equally there are as many people on the other side of the equation in the same situation because they aren't receiving treatment. My view remains that our society is banging up against the limits to what it can deliver and it needs a grown up conversation not the political bish bashing thats going on between Johnson & Starmer aided and abetted by Blackford & Davey.

Yes. We do need to sell this to the public. As I said before we are entering the flu season. We cannot expect things to ease off until well after Christmas. That is unless Covid-19 is not spread easily amongst people cooped up inside and the cold weather does not suit it. In which case we need to keep the heating turned off !. So the tiered system and what ever follows it will be hitting us for four or five months. But how harshly I don't know.

We need to know what other measures do work. So that the higher tiers are less likely to be used much. For example, if masks really help then wearing them needs to be more encouraged or more rigorously policed. Obviously that sounds nasty but is a lot more acceptable than having businesses fail, jobs lost and people suffering in isolation. Also a lot cheaper - but only IF masks work. The tiered system is more a way of suppressing a problem rather than preventing it. What other tools do we have that allow life to carry on nearer to normal ? - Perhaps the 2 metre rule.

 

[Yew]

This isn't really a party political issue. If Labour were in power now, they would be doing pretty much the same as the Tories are now. And the Tories would be criticising and proposing alternative strategies. A shame that Starmer is being deliberately contrarian.

Apart from the papers would be demolishing their totalitarian communist restrictions, and excessive spending.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

But too quick = overrun hospitals = people dying who could have been saved.

That's not backed by the evidence, unless you're taking Prof Fergursons model that assumes that the IFR is 10-20 times as bad as it is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

Yes. We do need to sell this to the public. As I said before we are entering the flu season. We cannot expect things to ease off until well after Christmas. That is unless Covid-19 is not spread easily amongst people cooped up inside and the cold weather does not suit it. In which case we need to keep the heating turned off !. So the tiered system and what ever follows it will be hitting us for four or five months. But how harshly I don't know.

We need to know what other measures do work. So that the higher tiers are less likely to be used much. For example, if masks really help then wearing them needs to be more encouraged or more rigorously policed. Obviously that sounds nasty but is a lot more acceptable than having businesses fail, jobs lost and people suffering in isolation. Also a lot cheaper - but only IF masks work. The tiered system is more a way of suppressing a problem rather than preventing it. What other tools do we have that allow life to carry on nearer to normal ? - Perhaps the 2 metre rule.

How much human suffering are you willing to cause to try and defeat the undefeatable?

 

[Whistler40145]

Well, we'll have to see if the new three tier system will make any effect.

A three week lockdown was rejected several weeks ago and can't see Boris Johnson following the request of Sir Keir Starmer

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Well, we'll have to see if the new three tier system will make any effect.

A three week lockdown was rejected several weeks ago and can't see Boris Johnson following the request of Sir Keir Starmer

My gut feeling is that the Three Tier system won't last long enough for anyone to find out whether it is working. I suspect that within the next 7 - 10 days, if that, there will be a further announcement that the figures are still rising and we must have a short 3 week month national lockdown.

 

[bramling]

Could early 80's style rioting return to Liverpool when the unemployment rises?

I’d have thought there’s certainly scope for things to kick off in Liverpool if people feel they are being unfairly treated - especially by Boris of all people given the history.

But meanwhile Essex is apparently “screaming out” for lockdown!

Well, we'll have to see if the new three tier system will make any effect.

A three week lockdown was rejected several weeks ago and can't see Boris Johnson following the request of Sir Keir Starmer

I have a suspicion we will see the circuit breaker happen. Unfortunately I think the media wind is picking up in that direction, and Boris will lose his nerve. It’s highly likely that by the end of this week we’ll have Sturgeon, Starmer, Davey and Khan all screaming for it, and possibly Drakeford too.

Over the last few days both Johnson and Sturgeon have looked visibly under the weather. I thought Johnson was visibly struggling yesterday. I think the pressure is starting to get to them. Hancock is completely out of his depth, I really think Hunt would have done better.

 

[Mag_seven]

My gut feeling is that the Three Tier system won't last long enough for anyone to find out whether it is working. I suspect that within the next 7 - 10 days, if that, there will be a further announcement that the figures are still rising and we must have a short 3 week month national lockdown.

Boris must not cave in to demands for another lockdown. If he does cave in then he might as well just hand over the running of the country to SAGE. I don't think back bench Tory MPs will stand for it any more and might even start to press for his removal as Tory leader.

 

[bramling]

Boris must not cave in to demands for another lockdown. If he does cave in then he might as well just hand over the running of the country to SAGE. I don't think back bench Tory MPs will stand for it any more and might even start to press for his removal as Tory leader.

I think there’s already quite a bit happening behind the scenes, which may be part of the reason why Boris is looking highly stressed at the moment (though to me he’s not really looked right since his own Covid episode).

There’s clearly stuff happening with the backbenchers and the 1922 committee, and it seems highly probable Sunak is agitating. But I think Starmer, Sturgeon and Drakeford are all major headaches. Khan isn’t, and neither is Davey, but the three I mentioned are. Starmer has influence, and the other two can cause quite a problem if they pull of in their own directions, which seems likely to happen - and we all know Sturgeon has her own little agenda simmering away in the background.

Our political setup hasn’t served us well in this to be honest. The devolution arrangements haven’t either - there shouldn’t be such a radical difference in policy between say Lydney and Chepstow.

I’d say it’s worth a fiver bet that we’ll have some kind of national circuit breaker by two Mondays time, unless there’s a reversal in rates by then.

 

[david1212]

My gut feeling is that the Three Tier system won't last long enough for anyone to find out whether it is working. I suspect that within the next 7 - 10 days, if that, there will be a further announcement that the figures are still rising and we must have a short 3 week month national lockdown.

While this certainly ought to get the case, hospital admission and death numbers back down for February 2021 if only to rise again economically would Rishi stump up the cash then there is the small national morale issue with the 'C' word season approaching.

If really only three weeks by 2021 would there a be a significant difference compared to carrying on as now with perhaps a few areas moving up a tier?

Might a half-way house be to move everywhere to the middle tier and everywhere current middle tier to top tier ? The initial announcement might be for three weeks but the behind the scenes plan six i.e. up to around 10 December.

 

[Chester1]

Thats fine as long people accept responsibility for there actions when there nan, aunty, sister, parent cant get an ambulance, is left in a corridor waiting for a bed let alone medical assistance. Of course they wont they will expect the state to be there for them as it always has been and this part of the problem. We have all become to expect too much and by and large western society have been able to deliver it but we are at the end of the road here and until the population is forced to face that reality that on this occasion we haven;t got your back so you need to behave responsibly.

If their relatives are high risk they should be shielding or at least close to it. The chances of catching covid if you are extremely careful is very low. Why should a young person reduce their travel and social life while its apparently still safe for Doris to go to the cafe or meet Ethel at the park? Most of the population says they support tougher measures but are not following all the current laws and guidance! Most people will be wary of seeing elderly relatives but not prepared to put their lives on hold and risk their jobs for an indeterminate period of time, in some sort of act of solidarity with high risk people who have to chose between locking themselves away or risking their lives.

The risk to under 60s with no conditions is negligible (approximately 400 UK deaths so far) and long covid happens in about 1 in 50 diagnosed cases, much lower once undiagnosed cases are considered. Now the majority of the population know this it is impossible to scare or force them into obedience. The solution that will inevitable be forced through disobedience will be for that large majority to lead relatively normal but adapted lives while the vulnerable shield for 6 months+ (or do what I would do if I was in my 80s and take the risk rather than wait to die of old age).

 

[Bantamzen]

I have a suspicion we will see the circuit breaker happen. Unfortunately I think the media wind is picking up in that direction, and Boris will lose his nerve. It’s highly likely that by the end of this week we’ll have Sturgeon, Starmer, Davey and Khan all screaming for it, and possibly Drakeford too.

Over the last few days both Johnson and Sturgeon have looked visibly under the weather. I thought Johnson was visibly struggling yesterday. I think the pressure is starting to get to them. Hancock is completely out of his depth, I really think Hunt would have done better.

I think this is a classic "bee careful what you wish for" scenario for Starmer et al. Any "short, sharp shock" (for whom BTW, the virus or us?) won't likely take place until at least next week meaning that any 3-4 week lockdown will roam deep into the Christmas shopping period, which will have a very big hit on sales in the high street with the inevitable reduced footfall. And of course if hospitality closes again, will many people be able to afford another wage cut even with national measures, especially as the cut will likely be 33% instead of 20% as in lockdown v1.0? That will have a knock-on effect on people's spending post lockdown v2.0, effectively causing even more revenue loss, more businesses failing, more job losses.

Plus there would be another side effect, if the virus isn't done with us we could see another spike in infections around Christmas & New Year, literally the worse time for something like that to happen. If BoJo dose cave in, I can see the Christmas Eve press conference to tell everyone you have to forsake your family happening. They had no problem telling Muslims in places like Bradford that Eid was off for them with literally a couple of hours notice, so I'm sure they'd be more than willing to put the skates under Christmas at no notic.

 

[railways45021]

Im confused with this three teir system does this mean essential travel only returns in Teir 3 only or are you allowed to travel in that area only and just not leave?

 

[DelayRepay]

I'm not sure why Labour think national lockdown measures are necessary or helpful.

It seems they think that:

• The time bought could be used to fix the test and trace system
• The Treasury would provide more funding (this seems to be the issue for the Northern mayors)

I think we could achieve both of these objectives without locking down the whole country. And I question the wisdom of locking down areas which currently have low case numbers.

I think Labour are right to say Test and Trace needs improving, and I think the financial support for areas classed as High and Very High risk might need to be improved. But neither of these require a second national lockdown.

Far better to have regional measures I think, so those who are in lower risk areas can carry on working and spending, and paying tax.

It looks like Northern Ireland are going to have a short lockdown, according to the news just now.

 

[daodao]

BBC news is reporting that Greater Manchester and Lancashire are likely to be put into tier 3 along with Merseyside in the near future; this is probably appropriate, given the similar Covid infection rates. There also needs to be police enforcement of non-essential travel to/from/within the tier 3 areas to reduce the need for a national lockdown in the way that Starmer and others are demanding.

Covid-19: New three-tier restrictions come into force in England

Most of the country is in the lowest tier but millions in the North and the Midlands face extra curbs.

www.bbc.co.uk

Government health officials are due to meet later to discuss the possibility of Greater Manchester, Lancashire and some other areas joining the top tier.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Oct 2020 ==

I'm not sure why Labour think national lockdown measures are necessary or helpful.

It seems they think that:

• The time bought could be used to fix the test and trace system
• The Treasury would provide more funding (this seems to be the issue for the Northern mayors)

I think we could achieve both of these objectives without locking down the whole country. And I question the wisdom of locking down areas which currently have low case numbers.

I think Labour are right to say Test and Trace needs improving, and I think the financial support for areas classed as High and Very High risk might need to be improved. But neither of these require a second national lockdown.

Far better to have regional measures I think, so those who are in lower risk areas can carry on working and spending, and paying tax.

It looks like Northern Ireland are going to have a short lockdown, according to the news just now.

I agree. The extra restrictions should be targeted at Lancashire/Liverpool/Manchester and the West Riding (Leeds/Sheffield), rather than the whole of England.