England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Domh245]

What's the status on overnight stays in each of the tiers? As far as I know they're not mentioned so there's nothing to stop anyone from travelling into or out of the area for a few days?

I've seen some posters detailing the restrictions for each area. For Medium & High alert areas, they're permitted subject to social contact rules. For Very High alert areas: "Those in area advised against overnight stays in other parts of the UK. People outside area advised against overnight stays in area"

 

[DustyBin]

I would actually rather they just closed pubs and other licensed venues but kept non licensed venues open in exchange for permitting two households to continue to meet each other indoors. That way people can continue to maintain relationships and friendships over the winter months.

The ban on indoor household mixing for tier two effectively removes quite a large chunk of a pub’s market in any case, to the extent I struggle to see how they make enough money to cover their costs.

Many aren’t unfortunately! I’ve spoken to three publicans today who were hoping that their businesses would be forced to close so that they were eligible for government support. Instead, they’re expected to carry on operating at a loss, despite having invested large sums of money in creating ‘Covid-secure’ environments and cutting overheads as far as they can. The brewery (or pub company in one case) are no longer able to offer much support as they themselves are struggling. It’s an absolute mess, and for what?

 

[duncanp]

What is Khan on about? London has been pretty stable for the last month if you look at the actual figures.

Indeed, the overall infection rate for the 32 London Boroughs plus the City of London was around 20 cases per 100,000 last week.

Yes, of course there are some boroughs with a much higher infection rate such and Richmond and Redbridge (both just over 100), but equally there are others with low infection rates, which have actually fallen in the latest week for which figures are available.

But I don't expect Sadiq Khant to understand that.

 

[FQ]

I've seen some posters detailing the restrictions for each area. For Medium & High alert areas, they're permitted subject to social contact rules. For Very High alert areas: "Those in area advised against overnight stays in other parts of the UK. People outside area advised against overnight stays in area"

Awesome, thanks for that - good summery of everything there.

 

[Trackman]

Indeed, the overall infection rate for the 32 London Boroughs plus the City of London was around 20 cases per 100,000 last week.

I read the average for the whole of London was around 66 on Friday, still a lot lower than the national average.

 

[duncanp]

I read the average for the whole of London was around 66 on Friday, still a lot lower than the national average.

I suppose it depends on which set of figures you use, but whilst some London Boroughs have seen large increases (eg Kensington & Chelsea) other boroughs have seen their infection rate fall in the last week (eg Havering, Barking & Dagenham)

So the picture in London is not uniform, and policy decisions should reflect that.

 

[MalaiseForever]

WHO statistics suggest that the Infection Fatality Ratio is comparable to seasonal influenza

This is incorrect. They explicitly said it is higher than flu, and rises substantially with age. You can watch them say it. Source: https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1315997403762262016

 

[Yew]

This is incorrect. They explicitly said it is higher than flu, and rises substantially with age. You can watch them say it. Source: https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1315997403762262016

That's not what their numbers say, 750M estimated cases, 1m deaths gives us a IFR of around 0.13%, which is in the range of seasonal influenza. The age dependency is irrelevant for comparing average IFR's

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Indeed, the overall infection rate for the 32 London Boroughs plus the City of London was around 20 cases per 100,000 last week.

Yes, of course there are some boroughs with a much higher infection rate such and Richmond and Redbridge (both just over 100), but equally there are others with low infection rates, which have actually fallen in the latest week for which figures are available.

Are these figures with or without the students who had been recorded in their home areas even though they are hundreds of miles away?

 

[duncanp]

Are these figures with or without the students who had been recorded in their home areas even though they are hundreds of miles away?

The figures are from the Cases By Local Area In England spreadsheet that you can download from the GOV.UK website, together with a another spreadsheet showing the population of each of these local areas.

I don't know the answer to your question though, but I would suppose it depends on where the COVID-19 test was taken.

I would sincerely hope that a student in these circumstances isn't counted twice, both in their home area and where the university is situated.

However given the situation a month or two ago where someone at a test centre in Twickenham was able to get a test slot by quoting a postcode in Aberdeen, I wouldn't be too sure of this.

I would also hope that no-one is missed off the figures because of confusion over which area their case should be allocated to.

Given the general incompetence of Public Health England in the area of data collection and processing, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if there isn't another cock up like the one with the Excel spreadsheet which means that cases have been incorrectly recorded.

 

[greyman42]

Tier 2, whilst keeping business and hospitality open, is actually surprisingly strict on individual freedoms and, for me, they might as well close hospitality!

That would not be good for the people who rely on hospitality for a living.

I can go to the pub but only on my own or with my support bubble, and cannot talk to / mingle with any other person when I get there.

There is nothing stopping you talking to other people in the pub.

This is full lockdown in all but name

Hardly.

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I suspect it's more a case that they are afraid of a back-bench revolt if they go any further than they have!

I suspect you are right. We should be grateful for the back-benchers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

I would actually rather they just closed pubs and other licensed venues but kept non licensed venues open in exchange for permitting two households to continue to meet each other indoors. That way people can continue to maintain relationships and friendships over the winter months.

It sounds like you don't use pubs or rely on them for a living, hospitality should be given every chance to survive.
Regarding households meeting each other indoors, that will be happening in houses all over the country regardless of restrictions.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

If alcohol is really the problem with people behaving, I wonder if we should actually go for full-on prohibition?

That's not good for the people who work in brewing, distribution and hospitality. We should be looking at keeping jobs, not destroying them.

 

[DB]

That's not good for the people who work in brewing, distribution and hospitality. We should be looking at keeping jobs, not destroying them.

The evidence for alcohol being a problem seems about as convincing as the evidence that face masks reduce transmission...

 

[kristiang85]

The evidence for alcohol being a problem seems about as convincing as the evidence that face masks reduce transmission...

Quite. South Africa banned all alcohol sales from 27th March to 18th August and, well, you only need to look at the Worldometer page to see how useless that was: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

And it only meant people just brewed and distilled their own at home (not great for public health), and led to a rise in activity in criminal gangs smuggling it to people.

 

[jtuk]

Ah, this would explain why the push back from Burnham, Rotheram etc seems to have disappeared:



In short, they've been bribed

 

[Scotrail12]

Ah, this would explain why the push back from Burnham, Rotheram etc seems to have disappeared:

View attachment 84608

In short, they've been bribed

WOW - that should surely be a crime against humanity? Not exaggerating.

 

[kristiang85]

Ah, this would explain why the push back from Burnham, Rotheram etc seems to have disappeared:

View attachment 84608

In short, they've been bribed

And probably why the likes of Essex and blooming Sadiq Khan are clamouring to be put into Tier 2!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

In some potentially big news, Chris Green - MP for Bolton West - has resigned from his post as Parliamentary Private Secretary in protest at the lockdowns. His letter to Boris is pretty damning.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's been proposed for weeks.

 

[Domh245]

WOW - that should surely be a crime against humanity? Not exaggerating.

A sense of perspective please. Which article of UN Declaration of Human Rights does this supposedly violate?

In short, they've been bribed

It's a pretty rubbish 'bribe' if it is - If the entirety of Greater Manchester went into tier 3 they'd get a whopping, £5 million. Given that GMCA have estimated they'll have spent £236 million on their response (not including loss of revenue), it's small change at that level. It's quite clearly a reflection that the higher tiers have costs associated with implementation (enforcement, any support to closed businesses, local track/trace systems) and is quite rightfully a measure to address that cost. I'd be surprised if the £2/head even covers the cost of the restrictions to be honest

For interest, Liverpool's councils are spending ~£10m a week in responses and would stand to gain £3 million from the "bribe".

 

[packermac]

And probably why the likes of Essex and blooming Sadiq Khan are clamouring to be put into Tier 2!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

In some potentially big news, Chris Green - MP for Bolton West - has resigned from his post as Parliamentary Private Secretary in protest at the lockdowns. His letter to Boris is pretty damning.

Should we even care? Just a guy self promoting!

 

[Yew]

Should we even care? Just a guy self promoting!

It always seemed to be big news when some little fish in Jeremy Corbyns shadow cabinet resigned, and he wasn't even leading the country.

 

[kristiang85]

Should we even care? Just a guy self promoting!

Well it's finally an MP putting their constituents and principles first. Hopefully it will mean other MPs who agree along the lines that all this is just too extreme will speak up more. Maybe not, but it's the first sign of some ranks breaking within government.

 

[Andyh82]

Ah, this would explain why the push back from Burnham, Rotheram etc seems to have disappeared:

View attachment 84608

In short, they've been bribed

Well never mind Tier 3,their leader is now demanding the whole country moves into Tier 4, so complaining about Tier 3 would be a bit odd now

 

[radamfi]

When has a resignation done any good? What happened to all those Tory MPs who resigned the whip about a year ago? Gone without trace. You end up with even worse people.

 

[duncanp]

Well never mind Tier 3,their leader is now demanding the whole country moves into Tier 4, so complaining about Tier 3 would be a bit odd now

The Telegraph is somewhat more cynical about Sir Keir Starmer's motives, as you might expect:-

Because whatever Mr Johnson decides, Sir Keir can’t lose. If Mr Johnson agrees to the circuit-breaker, it looks as if he’s bowed to Sir Keir’s will. And if Mr Johnson doesn’t agree to the circuit-breaker, Sir Keir can blame him for whatever follows.

I would like to ask Sir Keir Starmer three questions, but I won't hold my breath waiting for answers:-

• How much is the circuit breaker lockdown going to cost, in terms of compensation to businesses that are forced to close and employees put on some kind of furlough scheme?
• Where are we going to get the money to pay for the cost of the circuit breaker lockdown? (Hint : it doesn't grow on trees)
• What is your plan for after the end of the circuit breaker lockdown?

 

[yorkie]

Labour are now totally unelectable as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Richard Scott]

Should we even care? Just a guy self promoting!

Yes at least he has principles, most people moan many politicians don't have these. He has my respect.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Possibly one for the "how busy have your trains been" thread, but are lots of Northerners heading down south for this period to family down there, knowing that they'll be a little less restricted there?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2020 ==

Labour are now totally unelectable as far as I'm concerned.

I'm still voting them or Lib Dems in the next GE

 

[Busaholic]

Yes at least he has principles, most people moan many politicians don't have these. He has my respect.

Um, the principle that he wishes to be re-elected by the people of Bolton West? Sorry to be so cynical, but MPs do this sort of thing all the time with the connivance of their whips i.e. where their rebellion doesn't lead to a government defeat in a vote.

 

[Class 33]

The Telegraph is somewhat more cynical about Sir Keir Starmer's motives, as you might expect:-



I would like to ask Sir Keir Starmer three questions, but I won't hold my breath waiting for answers:-

• How much is the circuit breaker lockdown going to cost, in terms of compensation to businesses that are forced to close and employees put on some kind of furlough scheme?
• Where are we going to get the money to pay for the cost of the circuit breaker lockdown? (Hint : it doesn't grow on trees)
• What is your plan for after the end of the circuit breaker lockdown?

Additionally, IF(and I hope like mad it doesn't happen) he gets his demand for a "two to three week circuit breaker lockdown", I can bet that it would end up not being for 2 to 3 weeks. Because at the review point near the potential end of the lockdown, the government will then say something along the lines of "Cases are still far too high, along with hospital admissions and deaths. Therefore we must continue this lockdown, and this will be reviewed in 2/3 weeks time.". And this lockdown could end up dragging on for at least several weeks. And the further severe damage that would do to the economy, people's livelihoods and the mental health of the nation. There's just no way we can have another full national lockdown again.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Additionally, IF(and I hope like mad it doesn't happen) he gets his demand for a "two to three week circuit breaker lockdown", I can bet that it would end up not being for 2 to 3 weeks. Because at the review point near the potential end of the lockdown, the government will then say something along the lines of "Cases are still far too high, along with hospital admissions and deaths. Therefore we must continue this lockdown, and this will be reviewed in 2/3 weeks time.". And this lockdown could end up dragging on for at least several weeks. And the further severe damage that would do to the economy, people's livelihoods and the mental health of the nation. There's just no way we can have another full national lockdown again.

I think we can have a national one but not loads of local ones.

At least with a national lockdown people won't be visiting family and friends where restrictions are less severe.