Emergency Recovery Management Agreements (ERMA)

[Starmill]

Has this little snippet, revealed by The Telegraph temporarily taking down their paywall, made it onto the forum?

Eager not to be seen as “rewarding failure” and limiting the impact on the Exchequer, the Department for Transport is understood to have earmarked four networks for less favourable terms. South Western Railway and Transpennine Express, whose finances were precariously placed prior to the crisis, alongside Greater Anglia and key City of London commuter line c2c, are expected to be offered wafer-thin profit margins, industry sources said.

Operators are understood to be frustrated by officials’ focus on franchises’ financial rather than operating record.

...

It is understood that Trenitalia is particularly aggrieved by officials overlooking the fact that c2c is the country’s most punctual network. Trenitalia may now follow through on a previously reported threat to withdraw from the UK, industry sources said. Such a retrenchment could have serious repercussions for the Government’s £106bn HS2 project.

Access Restricted

Of course, this is the same paper who recently blamed the industry's problems on "excessive salaries enjoyed by some rail workers".

Access Restricted

 

[bramling]

Indeed. The increase in services needs to be responsive to people on the ground, rather than dictated by Whitehall.

Whitehall need to decide what they want people to do. If there’s to be a mass return to the offices then there need to be the peak-time trains to match. As usual we’re seeing the usual Boris dithering.

If the government wants peak-time trains then the TOCs can provide them, perhaps by knocking out a few midday and evening services.

 

[yorksrob]

Whitehall need to decide what they want people to do. If there’s to be a mass return to the offices then there need to be the peak-time trains to match. As usual we’re seeing the usual Boris dithering.

If the government wants peak-time trains then the TOCs can provide them, perhaps by knocking out a few midday and evening services.

There's not going to be a return to offices to the extent that there was previously. It's no use pretending that there will be.

The emphasis should be getting a day long service on all routes that can support the whole of the economy.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Times are carrying this story today. Obviously it only applies to England, but as usual, London based media outlets ignore devolution in their coverage.
I know the Emergency Agreement for TfW runs until the middle of October, not sure about ScotRail.

Coronavirus: railway firms to cancel 10% of services

Britain’s railways are to operate an autumn timetable of services that will be 10% below the pre-pandemic level, leaving passengers to struggle with longer wait

www.thetimes.co.uk

With traffic down 80% at Gatwick Airport and no increase likely for at least six months makes total sense to cull Gatex and use stock to strengthen remaining services. Unfortunately, wasteful though it is, the TOCs need to carry higher level of spare resources to cover for absences in the current situation and the EMAs need to recognise this. Dept of Transport does need to lean on TOCs though to become more responsive to demand changes as they emerge and suspending all aspects of Schedule 4 & 8 (if it hasn't been) should be implemented to allow a service that can move people not one thats worrying about PPM.

 

[Meerkat]

With traffic down 80% at Gatwick Airport and no increase likely for at least six months makes total sense to cull Gatex and use stock to strengthen remaining services. Unfortunately, wasteful though it is, the TOCs need to carry higher level of spare resources to cover for absences in the current situation and the EMAs need to recognise this. Dept of Transport does need to lean on TOCs though to become more responsive to demand changes as they emerge and suspending all aspects of Schedule 4 & 8 (if it hasn't been) should be implemented to allow a service that can move people not one thats worrying about PPM.

Why shouldn’t they worry about PPM? If they are on a fixed fee there is even more reason to have performance expectations to keep the pressure on them!
not really going to get the leisure passengers back by collapsing performance

 

[bramling]

There's not going to be a return to offices to the extent that there was previously. It's no use pretending that there will be.

The emphasis should be getting a day long service on all routes that can support the whole of the economy.

Someone needs to tell Boris then, as he seems to think people are returning in massive numbers!

The problem is there’s no point in providing something like an all-day Saturday service, the finding there’s a big return to work and people are complaining there’s insufficient peak trains. An element of strategy and planning is needed from above on this.

TfL have probably done well by simply reinstating a full timetable, which at least shows that they’re doing their normal thing and are ready and waiting for people to return. Obviously this is more difficult for the TOCs as it’s more difficult for them to work round on-the-day cancellations.

 

[yorksrob]

Someone needs to tell Boris then, as he seems to think people are returning in massive numbers!

The problem is there’s no point in providing something like an all-day Saturday service, the finding there’s a big return to work and people are complaining there’s insufficient peak trains. An element of strategy and planning is needed from above on this.

TfL have probably done well by simply reinstating a full timetable, which at least shows that they’re doing their normal thing and are ready and waiting for people to return. Obviously this is more difficult for the TOCs as it’s more difficult for them to work round on-the-day cancellations.

Well, there doesn't appear to be much evidence of there being insufficient peak trains at the moment or in the near future. The railway needs to be catering for the passengers it actually has, rather than the ones it thinks should be there. That is a full weekend service and a full service on tourist/rural routes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well, there doesn't appear to be much evidence of there being insufficient peak trains at the moment or in the near future. The railway needs to be catering for the passengers it actually has, rather than the ones it thinks should be there. That is a full weekend service and a full service on tourist/rural routes.

Same service every day (even Sundays, ideally) based on the present Saturday service would be best. Run some slightly longer peak trains if necessary. In places where there isn't a heavy commuter peak, that's the case anyway (bar Sundays). I say "based on" because you don't get trains like the 03bleugh MKC-Euston in the Saturday timetable but they are needed for e.g. LU workers, so you would want to keep those and e.g. the 0134 northbound.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As far as I can see, nothing dramatic about new TOC contracts has been announced today, certainly not to the stock market.
Such rail news as there is is just the RDG announcement about the increased level of rail services being offered by the TOCs from today.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

TfL have probably done well by simply reinstating a full timetable, which at least shows that they’re doing their normal thing and are ready and waiting for people to return. Obviously this is more difficult for the TOCs as it’s more difficult for them to work round on-the-day cancellations.

If Tfl can do it why cant the TOC's theres no difference both are being bailed out to ensure services continue to run?

That said there is little point running around trains of fresh air that cost energy and wear & tear on track and rolling stock. Also with significant increased likelihood of losing staff from the virus either directly or by virtue of the need to self isolate better to have more resilience in people resources by running less services.

 

[bramling]

Well, there doesn't appear to be much evidence of there being insufficient peak trains at the moment or in the near future. The railway needs to be catering for the passengers it actually has, rather than the ones it thinks should be there. That is a full weekend service and a full service on tourist/rural routes.

Some of the leisure use may well have declined in the last week with the schools having gone back, so what was appropriate in August may not be so going forward.

No one knows what demand is going to do over the next few weeks, so it’s a bit of a stab in the dark. Whilst social media may be full of “I’m not returning to work, it’s not safe, it’s so much better being at home” types, ultimately it’s not their decision to make, but one for employers. Same with furlough ending in a few weeks.

 

[Starmill]

The reality is that it doesn't really matter what "traditionalists" or train enthusiasts think about the return of commuters. Large white-collar employers just aren't interested in a full scale return because it's difficult, risky and offers little benefit to them. Some are clearly stalling the process, many are shedding numbers and almost none have mandated a return. Carlyle have effectively banned the use of public transport by employees, for example:

Carlyle has told its employees to avoid public transport on their commute to work because of concerns about coronavirus, as the $221bn private equity manager prepares to reopen its London office next month.

The policy also requires staff who use public transport at weekends to stay away from the office for 14 days. It applies to Carlyle’s 31 offices around the world, although many of those remain closed.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

The railway needs to do everything possible to make a return for these people attractive, right up to outright price reductions on Anytime fares. They won't come back soon of their own free will. It will be worse when the Job Retention Scheme closes, and we find out how many office-based roles will be lost permanently. Other big names in London have offered to cover taxi expenses or provided free parking spaces.

 

[yorksrob]

I see that Carlyle is an American company, so its perhaps not surprising that it shares that country's fixation with private transport.

Lower fares and trains when people need them are the way back for the railway.

 

[bramling]

If Tfl can do it why cant the TOC's theres no difference both are being bailed out to ensure services continue to run?

That said there is little point running around trains of fresh air that cost energy and wear & tear on track and rolling stock. Also with significant increased likelihood of losing staff from the virus either directly or by virtue of the need to self isolate better to have more resilience in people resources by running less services.

TFL have a slightly different set of circumstances, in that if you get a batch of random cancellations it’s easier to work around this and smooth things over such that the passenger probably won’t notice (outer reaches of some of the less frequent lines are perhaps an exception - but even if something like a Central Line service to Woodford via Hainault is cancelled they will normally be able to find something else to divert and fill any gap). This is naturally much more different with mainline operations, where there’s simply much less scope to do things.

Unfortunately the way the railway works is that uncovered duties arise on a fairly random basis, and there’s only so much scope to move things around so as to make any cancellations fall on less key services. In that sense it is better to design a slightly reduced service from the outset. There is the option for RDW, but again this is potentially volatile.

Something like GTR is essentially running what the passenger will see a weekday service on the GN route. They’re using the Saturday service as a base (which fortunately offers the same lengths as weekdays on most services), and have added a few peak extras roughly in the paths of what would have been the weekday peak services, though only some. This method seems to have worked reasonably well, though they are still getting the occasionally crew-related cancellation.

Observations suggest many of their trains are still running pretty empty, but at least the capacity is there. Clearly things aren’t so satisfactory elsewhere.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Some of the leisure use may well have declined in the last week with the schools having gone back, so what was appropriate in August may not be so going forward.

No one knows what demand is going to do over the next few weeks, so it’s a bit of a stab in the dark. Whilst social media may be full of “I’m not returning to work, it’s not safe, it’s so much better being at home” types, ultimately it’s not their decision to make, but one for employers. Same with furlough ending in a few weeks.

Exactly which is why the industry need to be more adaptable like there were decades ago when they ran relief trains. Forget bidding windows for timetable amendments issued weeks in advance just beef up control and TOCs with dedicated STP/VSTP staff so they can react better as demand emerges. So what if the odd schedule cause a few mins of delay providing a service that people can use and feel safe in is whats needed right now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Sep 2020 ==

TFL have a slightly different set of circumstances, in that if you get a batch of random cancellations it’s easier to work around this and smooth things over such that the passenger probably won’t notice (outer reaches of some of the less frequent lines are perhaps an exception - but even if something like a Central Line service to Woodford via Hainault is cancelled they will normally be able to find something else to divert and fill any gap). This is naturally much more different with mainline operations, where there’s simply much less scope to do things.

Unfortunately the way the railway works is that uncovered duties arise on a fairly random basis, and there’s only so much scope to move things around so as to make any cancellations fall on less key services. In that sense it is better to design a slightly reduced service from the outset. There is the option for RDW, but again this is potentially volatile.

Something like GTR is essentially running what the passenger will see a weekday service on the GN route. They’re using the Saturday service as a base (which fortunately offers the same lengths as weekdays on most services), and have added a few peak extras roughly in the paths of what would have been the weekday peak services, though only some. This method seems to have worked reasonably well, though they are still getting the occasionally crew-related cancellation.

Observations suggest many of their trains are still running pretty empty, but at least the capacity is there. Clearly things aren’t so satisfactory elsewhere.

Bramling im on GTRs patch and my view is they have pitched about right currently with the latest changes and current levels of passengers only whinge ive heard is lack of fast trains up from Worthing/Shoreham.

I'd also wager that Gatex won't return and the new concession will just integrate it into the replacement Southern.

 

[Taunton]

Unfortunately the way the railway works is that uncovered duties arise on a fairly random basis, and there’s only so much scope to move things around so as to make any cancellations fall on less key services. In that sense it is better to design a slightly reduced service from the outset. There is the option for RDW, but again this is potentially volatile.

It's been a continuing saga it seems, going back to well before privatisation, of alternating between "resilient" scheduling and "minimum cost" scheduling. Rosters get rearranged to keep crews and stock on one route all day, keep driver and conductor together all shift, etc, performance improves, knock-on cancellations drop off, etc. Then along comes the next manager, rearranges it all to save some costs and/or raid Orcats; trains get left at platforms unstaffed, known late runners get minimal turnrounds, driver but no conductor, etc. Few years later, the whole cycle starts again.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

It's been a continuing saga it seems, going back to well before privatisation, of alternating between "resilient" scheduling and "minimum cost" scheduling. Rosters get rearranged to keep crews and stock on one route all day, keep driver and conductor together all shift, etc, performance improves, knock-on cancellations drop off, etc. Then along comes the next manager, rearranges it all to save some costs and/or raid Orcats; trains get left at platforms unstaffed, known late runners get minimal turnrounds, driver but no conductor, etc. Few years later, the whole cycle starts again.

So true, in so many sectors too.

Perhaps there is a problem in the 'manager' recruitment process. Either attracting / appointing the wrong type of candidate or expecting the wrong things from them when in post. I came across so many new bosses desperate to make their mark. Firstly by bringing in consultants to study things ie support their proposals (and someone to blame when it goes wrong) and then re-organising departments with no clear purpose. Happens in the heath service, in local government and elsewhere.

Clear direction is required. What does the funder (government or passengers) want from their railway going forwards? Like it or not, there has been a seismic shift in working arrangements, and that includes commuting (or not) and mode (train or other). Simply biding time, gradually building up to the full pre-COVID timetable, then carry on as normal, is simply not the sensible option - albeit perhaps a convenient one for a few months whilst decisons are made / options considered and planning resources return to full capacity etc.

 

[Dr Hoo]

So true, in so many sectors too.

Perhaps there is a problem in the 'manager' recruitment process. Either attracting / appointing the wrong type of candidate or expecting the wrong things from them when in post. I came across so many new bosses desperate to make their mark. Firstly by bringing in consultants to study things ie support their proposals (and someone to blame when it goes wrong) and then re-organising departments with no clear purpose. Happens in the heath service, in local government and elsewhere.

Clear direction is required. What does the funder (government or passengers) want from their railway going forwards? Like it or not, there has been a seismic shift in working arrangements, and that includes commuting (or not) and mode (train or other). Simply biding time, gradually building up to the full pre-COVID timetable, then carry on as normal, is simply not the sensible option - albeit perhaps a convenient one for a few months whilst decisons are made / options considered and planning resources return to full capacity etc.

To be fair to the instigators of changes, over the past 25 years many of the issues have been exacerbated by continuous demand growth. No matter how much people would like to accommodate it whilst maintaining high performance and reliability standards the only rapid solution is often to 'sweat the assets'. With new rolling stock taking years to procure/modify and introduce; drivers and other staff taking years to recruit and train to full breadth of competence; having to rely on other projects to lengthen platforms, enlarge depots and so forth the only relatively quick fix has often been to 'step up' resources and keep trains on the move with minimum turnarounds. Quite a few stations don't have the luxury of spare capacity for long dwells/turnrounds these days anyway.

The performance regimes have, of course, acted as a check and balance with this process and often been the driver for changed priorities, restoring a degree of spare resource. One of the big risks at the moment is that if they are completely 'turned off' (even for management information purposes rather than cash transfer) then people will lose sight of how much flakey performance is potentially costing in terms of revenue. In the short term the COVID emergency has destroyed normal degrees of elasticity of demand but in the longer term these concepts will become important again, regardless of who owns, specifies and operates the system. Remember that it was BR that created the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, ORCATS and Delay Attribution to manage its own activities.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

To be fair to the instigators of changes, over the past 25 years many of the issues have been exacerbated by continuous demand growth. No matter how much people would like to accommodate it whilst maintaining high performance and reliability standards the only rapid solution is often to 'sweat the assets'. With new rolling stock taking years to procure/modify and introduce; drivers and other staff taking years to recruit and train to full breadth of competence; having to rely on other projects to lengthen platforms, enlarge depots and so forth the only relatively quick fix has often been to 'step up' resources and keep trains on the move with minimum turnarounds. Quite a few stations don't have the luxury of spare capacity for long dwells/turnrounds these days anyway.

The performance regimes have, of course, acted as a check and balance with this process and often been the driver for changed priorities, restoring a degree of spare resource. One of the big risks at the moment is that if they are completely 'turned off' (even for management information purposes rather than cash transfer) then people will lose sight of how much flakey performance is potentially costing in terms of revenue. In the short term the COVID emergency has destroyed normal concepts of elasticity of demand but in the longer term these concepts will become important again, regardless of who owns, specifies and operates the system. Remember that it was BR that created the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, ORCATS and Delay Attribution to manage its own activities.

What should be turned off if the monetary impacts from the performance regime.

Also senior managers bonus schemes in both TOCs and NR are hard wired to PPM so they should also be suspended in the current environment.

 

[43096]

What should be turned off if the monetary impacts from the performance regime.

Also senior managers bonus schemes in both TOCs and NR are hard wired to PPM so they should also be suspended in the current environment.

Why?

I've lost count of how many times it's been said that the performance regime needs changing so there's no money go round. Yet I've never yet heard anyone saying that explain how you incentivise performance without it having a financial value. We're 25 years on from privatisation and no-one has come up with anything better - the simple fact is that unless you put a financial value to it, it's not in a company's interests to do something about worsening performance.

 

[crablab]

There's not going to be a return to offices to the extent that there was previously. It's no use pretending that there will be.

Agreed. Particularly if the season ticket situation isn't sorted out... People just aren't going to buy seasons in their current form, and without some kind of discount to encourage commuters back to semi-regular travelling I'm not sure many will opt to chance their arm grabbing an expensive Anytime Day Single and hope they can book a reservation...

 

[Starmill]

Agreed. Particularly if the season ticket situation isn't sorted out... People just aren't going to buy seasons in their current form, and without some kind of discount to encourage commuters back to semi-regular travelling I'm not sure many will opt to chance their arm grabbing an expensive Anytime Day Single and hope they can book a reservation...

It's rumoured that the Department have ordered all of their providers to introduce a flexible season product. These sound like well grounded rumours to me. However, there's no timescale, so we can assume it will be some months yet (January fares round, perhaps?) and there's no guarantee that the discount will be any greater than 10% over the existing Anytime (Day) Return rate.

 

[crablab]

However, there's no timescale, so we can assume it will be some months yet (January fares round, perhaps?)

Doesn't really fit with the "back to your desks" sentiment that was being pushed last week...

It would be asking too much for the government to come up with a coherent strategy, path to execution and then get on with it.

 

[WatcherZero]

It's rumoured that the Department have ordered all of their providers to introduce a flexible season product. These sound like well grounded rumours to me. However, there's no timescale, so we can assume it will be some months yet (January fares round, perhaps?) and there's no guarantee that the discount will be any greater than 10% over the existing Anytime (Day) Return rate.

Yes I think one thing thats oft forgotten is the standard season ticket is priced under the assumption you wont be using it every single day, when you replace that with a digital equivalent of a clipper card (for example the mooted any 11 days in 28 or similar) once you account for only using it when you need it the actual journey discount will have to be far less or the government will have to be putting more money in to cover the shortfall.

 

[lordbusiness]

I have a suspicion that the work at home/ remote working brigade will suddenly find that their employer has discovered if that if someone is working from home permanently it's cheaper to employ someone to work at home in India than it is in UK. Distance from Head Office in the digital age makes no difference.

 

[yorkie]

There isn't much point duplicating discussion that's been or being had in other threads, so please only reply to this thread to discuss the subject of ERMA specifically

For discussion of working from home arrangements, potential fare changes and the future of public transport, etc please any of the existing threads on these subjects.

Other threads that may be of interest include:

• How-should-fares-reduce-or-change-to-attract-people-back-onto-rail
• Remote-working-preferences-in-the-longer-term
• Cut-fares-transport-focus-and-open-station-facilities-my-plea
• Can-public-transport-ever-recover-from-covid-19

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Dept of Transport have uploaded numerous updates to TOC franchises on there site

https://assets.publishing.service.g...outh-eastern-emergency-measures-agreement.pdf

The South Eastern implies it runs til Oct 21 but maybe that was part of direct award

3. COMMENCEMENT AND TERM
3.1 Subject to clause 3.2, this EMA shall take effect from the date of this EMA and shall continue
until the earlier of:
(a) 1.59 a.m. on 17 October 2021, or any such later date to which the New Franchise
Agreement is continued in accordance with clause 5.2 (Additional Reporting Periods)
of the New Franchise Agreement; or
(b) the date the Parties mutually agree to terminate this EMA,

and Greater Anglia

https://assets.publishing.service.g.../east-anglia-emergency-measures-agreement.pdf

is til 20 September 20.

There are others on there in this general area

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/public-register-of-rail-passenger-franchise-agreements

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As far as I can see, today's update just adds the original EMAs for each TOC.
Other than the new GWR extension, they all terminate on 20 September 2020, except South Eastern (17 Oct 2021) and XC (18 Oct 2020).

 

[Starmill]

Presumably CrossCountry's is just a little longer in order to simplify the negotiations to extend their new direct award.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Grant Shapps answering Transport Topical questions in the house commons this morning was asked by James McMahon (Shadow Secretary of State for Transport) when there will be announcement on EMAs. Shapps basically saying negotiations are on going and will make a statement when concluded.

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/178d390a-c67c-441f-b2c1-345deddb408b

question at 10.14hrs