Ember: Electric coach service

[SoloSR334022]

Considering AWC do roaring trade on this route in both directions - stopping at Carlisle wouldn’t make any sense!

Not via Hawick they don't!

 

[Buzby]

Not via Hawick they don't!

The most recent study showed that the prospect of a Waverley route extension being beneficial to the local population was minimal. As an enhancement to network resilience it is without question, but the financial numbers weren’t there to justify it. As for Ember, the most direct is the A701 and that won’t benefit Hawick. Indeed, taking tourist travel out the calculation I really doubt many would wish to go to Carlisle (and from there, I would assume they would prefer to go to Newcastle rather than Edinburgh (even at £2)!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Luckily there's a whole lot of potential in a country to the south of Scotland...

Is there? As per the discussion on the NatEx thread, going up against Flix is an incredibly risky pursuit. If they try it it could be their undoing. NatEx's increasing woes prove there isn't really a premium coach market (as that market just goes to the budget end of rail - WMT, Chiltern, Lumo, Northern and Advances bought well in advance) and that's the only way they could go - they aren't going to be able to undercut Flix's model which has won everywhere it has competed and looks likely to in the UK as well.

The one thing they might manage to do is an "international" service to London (as demand is quite high and provision quite low - Flix's fares on this are close to rail fare level and are often actually higher than the seated Sleeper overnight) but that would presumably need a charging stop?

Scotland is a very, very different coach market to England. That Ember works there doesn't mean it would work in England. The one other place it could work (possibly) is Wales (due to its similarly underdeveloped rail network), but they seem to be going the other way of fully regulating so unless they were to bid for Traws/Taith routes it might be a short lived venture, and the small local coach companies that typically do that work probably have far lower overheads.

 

[KrisEK]

Ember's barely scratched the central belt yet, there's plenty of room for expansion still. I still have fingers crossed for an East Kilbride to Edinburgh service, possibly as part of either an Ayr to Edinburgh route or a Glasgow Airport to Edinburgh route.

 

[CMBS]

Ember's barely scratched the central belt yet, there's plenty of room for expansion still. I still have fingers crossed for an East Kilbride to Edinburgh service, possibly as part of either an Ayr to Edinburgh route or a Glasgow Airport to Edinburgh route.

A combined X16 and 904 via Wishaw and Livingston would be interesting.

 

[Parebunks]

Is there? As per the discussion on the NatEx thread, going up against Flix is an incredibly risky pursuit. If they try it it could be their undoing. NatEx's increasing woes prove there isn't really a premium coach market (as that market just goes to the budget end of rail - WMT, Chiltern, Lumo, Northern and Advances bought well in advance) and that's the only way they could go - they aren't going to be able to undercut Flix's model which has won everywhere it has competed and looks likely to in the UK as well.

The one thing they might manage to do is an "international" service to London (as demand is quite high and provision quite low - Flix's fares on this are close to rail fare level and are often actually higher than the seated Sleeper overnight) but that would presumably need a charging stop?

Scotland is a very, very different coach market to England. That Ember works there doesn't mean it would work in England. The one other place it could work (possibly) is Wales (due to its similarly underdeveloped rail network), but they seem to be going the other way of fully regulating so unless they were to bid for Traws/Taith routes it might be a short lived venture, and the small local coach companies that typically do that work probably have far lower overheads.

I wonder if Ember's model is sufficiently distinct from Flix that there could be an opening for them? Whilst there is some similarity with NX in terms of positioning themselves as a slightly more premium offering, NX's route planning model is essentially identical to Flix with non-stop intercity routes. Ember's model of more intermediate stops (when prebooked) could be a slight niche for them - e.g. rather than non-stop London to Birmingham there could be pre-bookable stops at Hillingdon, Wycombe Coachway, Wheatley services, Banbury, Warwick, the University of Warwick and Birmingham Airport. There would of course be something of a time penalty, but still seems like something Ember could at least try.

I would be surprised if they expanded far into England any time soon though - Glasgow to Manchester and Edinburgh to Newcastle maybe, but it does still feel like they have some years left consolidating in Scotland, the central belt and south in particular.

 

[GusB]

Luckily there's a whole lot of potential in a country to the south of Scotland...
That's absolutely what some, if not all the 100 coaches are for.

Those 100 coaches are funded by Scotzeb 3 and can only be used on "local" bus routes within Scotland. "Local" is a bit of a misnomer when it really means "registered", but there's no chance that those vehicles will be used on services entirely outwith Scotland, at least not in the first seven years.

The guidance document says:

11. All vehicles acquired through this scheme must be operated in Scotland by a licensed PSV operator on registered local bus services for a minimum of seven (7) consecutive years from entry into service.

However, a service that crosses the border is still technically "operated in Scotland" and there's nothing in the guidance that explicitly precludes cross-border services.

 

[Deerfold]

Those 100 coaches are funded by Scotzeb 3 and can only be used on "local" bus routes within Scotland. "Local" is a bit of a misnomer when it really means "registered", but there's no chance that those vehicles will be used on services entirely outwith Scotland, at least not in the first seven years.

The guidance document says:


However, a service that crosses the border is still technically "operated in Scotland" and there's nothing in the guidance that explicitly precludes cross-border services.

And, as had been pointed out, it's significantly less time until their older coaches will time out on their restrictions.

 

[johncrossley]

If Ember have ambitions to grow across the UK and worldwide, they will surely have to buy coaches at the full market rate eventually. The situation in Scotland must be unusual, if not unique. Does any other jurisdiction subsidise coaches used on commercial services? Electric cars have now dropped in price to roughly the same level as petrol cars, but there still seems to be a huge premium for an electric bus/coach compared to diesel.

 

[Volvodart]

If Ember have ambitions to grow across the UK and worldwide, they will surely have to buy coaches at the full market rate eventually. The situation in Scotland must be unusual, if not unique. Does any other jurisdiction subsidise coaches used on commercial services? Electric cars have now dropped in price to roughly the same level as petrol cars, but there still seems to be a huge premium for an electric bus/coach compared to diesel.

Depending what happens with the Mcgills case, they may not get all the award that they were expecting, so if they go ahead with the 100 coaches, some may be at the full price not subject to the restrictions.

 

[overthewater]

Willie Rennie MSP did ask would the Government/minster guarantee What ever happens in the courts that every company awarded funded would keep it. IE if McGills were to win, the government would just add Mcgills into the funding.

 

[Volvodart]

Willie Rennie MSP did ask would the Government/minster guarantee What ever happens in the courts that every company awarded funded would keep it. IE if McGills were to win, the government would just add Mcgills into the funding.

The reply given by Transport Scotland was that it is up to the bus companies to make that decision, rather than Transport Scotland giving the guarantee.

 

[overthewater]

Mr Rennie wasn't overly happy with that reply.

 

[Spsf3232]

The Ember order has already been placed so the funding will be paid when the government pay it. Ember will simply take on the financial hit until it's paid.

They have also recently just had an increase of private funding to expand further out with this so that's an interesting one to watch in future.

The England saga I don't see being an entirely independent operation within England anytime soon but I do see cross border services happening next year.

 

[Sealink]

Purely speculating - I wonder if Ember would consider Campbeltown (picking Islay and Gigha ferry passengers) and Stranraer?

 

[CMBS]

Purely speculating - I wonder if Ember would consider Campbeltown (picking Islay and Gigha ferry passengers) and Stranraer?

I predict Campbeltown for 2027 starting 4 times a day timed with Kennacraig connections.

Stranraer, I think the Central Belt needs to be consolidated first and they would have to enter a through ticketing partnership with P&O or Stenaline, then the issue comes on the other end of the water