Ember: Electric coach service

[GusB]

Hopefully bus franchising will get a move on bevause at this point Ember especially is essentially an arms length business of the Scottish government given how much investment they've gotten, from the covid grants, to ScotZEB 1, 2, and 3,

It's no more an arms-length business of the Scottish Government than any other company that applied for Scotzeb funding.

Ember is in a unique situation where they don't have vehicle purchase costs, don't have depot/charging costs, and don't have to pay for petrol. This makes their business very lucrative and as worked out before, assuming roughly private hire rates, it takes very few people to break even.

I'd question your assertion that Ember doesn't have vehicle costs or depot costs. The Scotzeb 3 award was £13,174,147 for 100 coaches and 43 chargers.

According to the data table in this article (https://www.busandcoachbuyer.com/road-test-yutong-gte14/), the retail price of a Yutong GTe14 is in the region of half a million, so multiplying that by 100 you're looking at around £50m (not including the cost of the chargers). The electricity isn't free, either.

it's unlikely that full retail price will be charged for such a large order but £13m doesn't go that far.

 

[Farigiraf]

Looks like Ember has managed to made Stagecoach hit the bucket for a first.

Strange because when I used the X99 just a few days ago it was decently packed.

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.u...gecoach-x99-service-between-caithness-446586/

I'm a fan of the increased E6 frequency as it means you can do a daytrip out to Wick/Thurso (rail out, bus back) and have more than 60 minutes before you have to return back. Wick isn't that big but for example current transport connections don't allow enough time to see the Wick Heritage Museum, unless you take a bus at the crack of dawn. However, I have two questions:

- The X99 stops at about 30 more stops than Ember does. Will these stops be left with no bus service?
- If Ember ever withdraws their E6 service (it's a private venture so it could happen at any point) will Stagecoach be forced to reinstate the X99? A competing bus operator 'stealing' a route and then running it into the ground / withdrawing it completely isn't that rare, and it's quite a vital bus route so even a month of no service would be really quite problematic.

 

[CMBS]

I'm a fan of the increased E6 frequency as it means you can do a daytrip out to Wick/Thurso (rail out, bus back) and have more than 60 minutes before you have to return back. Wick isn't that big but for example current transport connections don't allow enough time to see the Wick Heritage Museum, unless you take a bus at the crack of dawn. However, I have two questions:

- The X99 stops at about 30 more stops than Ember does. Will these stops be left with no bus service?
- If Ember ever withdraws their E6 service (it's a private venture so it could happen at any point) will Stagecoach be forced to reinstate the X99? A competing bus operator 'stealing' a route and then running it into the ground / withdrawing it completely isn't that rare, and it's quite a vital bus route so even a month of no service would be really quite problematic.

All Caithness operations are going to D&E Coaches and it's unclear whether they are taking over the X99, sources are mixed on whether they are taking it over or not.
In a scenario where the E6 was withdrawn, the Castletown to Wick corridor would be down to three services a day if it was for the E6 to be withdrawn. Lybster would also lose a significant amount of services, down to two a day and none in the weekends. Golspie and Brora would see significant service reductions as well, with their only bus service being a 3 a day service to Lairg and the once a day X25 extension.

In terms of actual losses, The direct Dornoch to Inverness service is lost, as the E6 is a combination of the X99 + X25 (+ Dingwall added) and there is a couple of rural settlements which Ember hasn't added stops to.

The X99 is a commercial service (and formerly a Citylink one as the 958, which ran until 2008 judging from VOSA) so on paper there is no need but I would imagine the Council would move in and set a tender/operate it themselves

 

[kkong]

They don't get reimbursed 80%, it's much closer to 50% but the exact amount depends on the type of card used. I can't remember the exact amounts offhand.

The reimbursement rates for the 2026/27 financial year are (expressed as % of the single fare):

• Age 5-15: 48.1%
• Age 16-21: 72.5%
• Age 60+ / Disabled: 53.0%

There are funding caps:

• Age 60+ / Disabled: £248.2m
• Age 5-22: £220.6m

 

[Megafuss]

I'm looking forward to see what happens with the X99 and the E6 situation. Ember have been very good at mirroring other operators services. Let's see how they cope and adapt following a possible commercial withdrawl on the same corridor.

 

[johncrossley]

I fail to see how this company is making any money

Looking at the Ember Core Ltd accounts, they lost £1.84 million year ending March 2024 and £1.76 million year ending March 2025. As a growing company you would expect them to be losing money in the beginning.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 19:41 ==

The BBC report the withdrawal of the X99 but there is nothing in the article about the Ember service. Most people reading this article would think there is no substitute service. Yes, there are differences in the route but the vast majority of affected passengers can use Ember, and almost all if Ember change the route.

'Lifeline' bus route linking Caithness to Inverness to be cut

Stagecoach says the decision follows a sustained period of extremely low customer numbers.

www.bbc.co.uk

Stagecoach has confirmed it will cut a bus service between Caithness and Inverness which stops at Raigmore hospital later this month.

The company said its X99 service between Inverness and Scrabster, which serves Thurso and Wick, will cease operating after Sunday 18 October.

A spokesperson for Stagecoach said the decision followed a sustained period of extremely low customer numbers and the withdrawal was expected to have "minimal impact" on the local community.

 

[GusB]

The BBC report the withdrawal of the X99 but there is nothing in the article about the Ember service. Most people reading this article would think there is no substitute service. Yes, there are differences in the route but the vast majority of affected passengers can use Ember, and almost all if Ember change the route.

It was mentioned in the John O'Groats Journal (link in this post - https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...and-bluebird-and-highland.169388/post-7970513) so it's not as if people will be completely unaware.

I wouldn't expect the Stagecoach spokesperson to advise the BBC that there is an alternative service when Ember was the cause of the route being withdrawn!

It's a poor show from the Beeb by not doing proper research, though.

 

[davp]

The BBC report the withdrawal of the X99 but there is nothing in the article about the Ember service.

There are also very frequent services to and from the hospital from within 200m of the Ember stop in Inverness.

I can see value of a service running close into a hospital, however not every service needs to run there. A good proportion of Edinburgh residents need a change of bus to to get to the infirmary for example.

People with accessibility issues that make a city centre change difficult are likely to already be provided with or eligible for NHS transport.

 

[CMBS]

I know nothing has been confirmed or mentioned about it yet from higher up but I would imagine that Campbeltown is the next destination for Ember in the Highlands?
Or less likely so because it's not a tourist destination in the likes of Oban or Skye, but I see it as highly inevitable + overcrowding is a huge issue on the Glasgow to South Argyll service at the moment. Charging would be an issue however as the current 926 service is 4 and a half hours, and would be the longest route on the network if commenced.

Gairloch and Durness I don't think are economically viable apart from tourists (maybe an opportunity for a split NC500 service) + drivers would have to be relocated since the population there just does not exist. Maybe Lochcarron if Skye services are added via Achnasheen but again certainly not as far to Applecross.

 

[route101]

I know nothing has been confirmed or mentioned about it yet from higher up but I would imagine that Campbeltown is the next destination for Ember in the Highlands?
Or less likely so because it's not a tourist destination in the likes of Oban or Skye, but I see it as highly inevitable + overcrowding is a huge issue on the Glasgow to South Argyll service at the moment. Charging would be an issue however as the current 926 service is 4 and a half hours, and would be the longest route on the network if commenced.

Gairloch and Durness I don't think are economically viable apart from tourists (maybe an opportunity for a split NC500 service) + drivers would have to be relocated since the population there just does not exist. Maybe Lochcarron if Skye services are added via Achnasheen but again certainly not as far to Applecross.

Skye is the next destination. I imagine service to Fort William.

 

[davp]

Maybe Lochcarron if Skye services are added via Achnasheen but again certainly not as far to Applecross.

Unless running around via Shieldaig I would say Lochcarron to Applecross is ambitious for a full sized bus.

These are places that before the NC500 was ever thought about were served by a Postbus.

 

[Spsf3232]

It's no more an arms-length business of the Scottish Government than any other company that applied for Scotzeb funding.



I'd question your assertion that Ember doesn't have vehicle costs or depot costs. The Scotzeb 3 award was £13,174,147 for 100 coaches and 43 chargers.

According to the data table in this article (https://www.busandcoachbuyer.com/road-test-yutong-gte14/), the retail price of a Yutong GTe14 is in the region of half a million, so multiplying that by 100 you're looking at around £50m (not including the cost of the chargers). The electricity isn't free, either.

it's unlikely that full retail price will be charged for such a large order but £13m doesn't go that far.

In the grand scheme of what's been awarded it adds up to something around £100k per vehicle if you don't count funding for charging infrastructure. Leaving near £400k to be sourced elsewhere and that mostly comes from private equity companies like SkyScanner and banks to put the money in.

People need to also remember that Citylink and Flixbus could have applied for the funding the same as ember but didn't!

Ember are not looking at what's happening next year or in 5 years time they are looking further out when the large operators like Parks are forced into electric and Ember are already ahead of them with infrastructure all-around the UK to support a network similar to Citylink

 

[David M]

There are funding caps:

• Age 60+ / Disabled: £248.2m
• Age 5-22: £220.6m

For all I know, annual expenditure comes nowhere near the figures above BUT what would happen if, for instance, the 60+ spend reached the £248m before the financial year end?

 

[kkong]

For all I know, annual expenditure comes nowhere near the figures above BUT what would happen if, for instance, the 60+ spend reached the £248m before the financial year end?

The procedure was explained in the Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee meeting of 5th March 2024

Jim Fairlie (Minister for Agriculture and Connectivity): If we meet the limits on the capped amount, and if monitoring in-year suggests that the claims are likely to exceed the cap, claims for the latter part of the year are paid at a lower rate than is set out in the legislation, so as to keep the total payments under the scheme within the statutory cap. If this was the case, Transport Scotland would write to operators as soon as possible so that they would know the indication for the year to come.

 

[Volvodart]

For all I know, annual expenditure comes nowhere near the figures above BUT what would happen if, for instance, the 60+ spend reached the £248m before the financial year end?

There was one year before COVID that the 60 plus scheme was used up, resulting in no payments being made at the end of the March scheme year.

 

[kkong]

The most recent figures I have seen are:

• 2022/23 Age 60+ / Disabled: Cap £226.1m, Actual £156.0m
• 2023/24 Age 60+ / Disabled: Cap £216.2m, Actual £188.0m
• 2024/25 Age 60+ / Disabled: Cap £203.5m, Actual £196.6m

• 2022/23 Age 5-22: Actual £107.8m
• 2023/24 Age 5-22: Actual £164.2m
• 2024/25 Age 5-22: Actual £182.0m

There was no cap on the Young Persons Scheme until 2026/27, because they claimed to have no data on which to determine an appropriate cap.

 

[Resuwen]

I know nothing has been confirmed or mentioned about it yet from higher up but I would imagine that Campbeltown is the next destination for Ember in the Highlands?

Campbeltown (or Campbeltoon as those of us o a certain age call it) may be many things, but in the Highlands it is not!

 

[overthewater]

Surly the Kirkcaldy depot is next for new routes? Or are they having trouble getting drivers?

 

[Porty]

I fail to see how this company is making any money

Went from Edinburgh to Pitlochry last Saturday morning, returning in the afternoon. Fully booked both ways.