Ely Upgrade under threat

[Chris125]

Sounds like the capacity upgrade at Ely is all but dead sadly - they're blaming changing travel patterns despite freight being the major beneficiary?

The Government has indicated that the projected £450m cost of upgrading Ely rail infrastructure may be too high a price to pay.

It could be one of those that “will have to be cancelled or indefinitely paused”.

Wendy Morton, minister of state for transport, has told regional business leaders and local MPs that changes in “travel patterns” means the scheme may mean putting Ely on hold.

Threat to cancel or 'indefinitely pause' £450m Ely rail upgrade

The Government has indicated that the projected £450m cost of upgrading Ely rail infrastructure may be too high a price to pay.

www.elystandard.co.uk

 

[furnessvale]

Presumably, those changes in travel patterns will mean less passenger trains on the North London Line leaving room for more freights to go that way!

I'll get my coat!

 

[lachlan]

How embarrassing. Last time I checked car use had returned or even exceeded to pre-pandemic levels. People are still travelling, we need to now drive modal shift on to rail. Cancelling improvements is not the way to go about that.

 

[InOban]

I believe it is part of the upcoming contest for the Conservative party. Liz Truss us the mp for SW Norfolk and has campaigned for the upgrade. Sunak on the other hand.....

 

[MikeWM]

Also the MP for SE Cambs (including Ely) is considered a 'rising star' in the Tory party (ie. she does what she's told and doesn't make a public fuss) so she may not be pleased either.

I wonder if they could trim a good proportion of the costs by finding other, better solutions - eg. by not building a big massive bridge in the middle of an SSSI to 'solve' the problem 'caused' by a barely-used level crossing.

 

[Alfie1014]

Spectacularly short sighted if true, the benefits for one of the most congested freight routes alone connecting the busiest (for rail freight) deep sea port to much of the north should in any sane world be a no brainer. Then when you add the benefits to passenger traffic which is probably constrained by the poor current service (especially on the Ipswich - Peterborough corridor being only two hourly), I for one almost always have to travel via London rather than cross country to access the ECML due to the poor frequency. Add in the fact that the East Anglia region has had the fastest growing population in the last 10 years of anywhere in England and also the lowest percentage of ‘levelling up’ funding of any region at the same time it all becomes a bit fishy, too many perceived to be safe Tory seats in this part of the world perhaps when the money could be ’better’ used to buy off supposed red wall seats elsewhere.

 

[bluenoxid]

I’m probably missing a massive point here, but what is this upgrade physically delivering because it just looks like an upgrade from single lead to double lead with no flyovers?

I can understand why some people would be asking questions when presented with these proposals and the figure currently associated with it.

 

[dk1]

It wouldn’t be so bad if it didn’t still have to be ‘double blocked’ in all directions.

 

[Chris Butler]

I’m probably missing a massive point here, but what is this upgrade physically delivering because it just looks like an upgrade from single lead to double lead with no flyovers?

I can understand why some people would be asking questions when presented with these proposals and the figure currently associated with it.

I had the same reaction.

I think the cost is from the need to build a new road to avoid any changes (not necessarily closures) of level crossings, mainly the Queen Adelaide ones. That need, in turn, is said to be because Cambridgeshire council has said it will oppose any measures that restrict traffic on those crossings.

The 'half a billion' cost is not an official Network Rail figure, so it is not clear what is included. A cynic might also suggest that, in that case, it is likely too low. Other reports suggest that there is £100m+ needed for compulsory purchase of land for work on a lot of other level crossings and the junction doubling.

All of the above is from a quick trawl of Network Rail and local papers caused by the exact query that you raised. It's probably a partial summary.

 

[a good off]

I think they’d get much more value by doubling the Soham single line.

 

[Magdalia]

I’m probably missing a massive point here, but what is this upgrade physically delivering because it just looks like an upgrade from single lead to double lead with no flyovers?

I can understand why some people would be asking questions when presented with these proposals and the figure currently associated with it.

The single lead onto the Kings Lynn line is a significant constraint regarding the introduction of trains every 30 minutes instead of every hour. I suspect that this is the bit where "changing travel patterns" have weakened the case for the upgrade. The freight traffic doesn't benefit much because it is the Peterborough line that is already double track.

It is the road network that makes the project expensive, not the railway. It would probably be cheaper to relocate all of the residents of Queen Adelaide to a tropical paradise, so that the level crossings could be closed.

 

[ac6000cw]

I think they’d get much more value by doubling the Soham single line.

That doesn't help without increasing the capacity through Ely North Junction, where the major problem (as Magdalia says) is the increased level crossing risk primarily at Queen Adelaide with more trains.

The other 'cost' problem is the poor ground conditions in the Fens, making building infrastructure to support the weight of freight trains - e.g. Ely-Soham doubling - more expensive (and if buying farmland, the Fens have some of the best arable land in the country, so it's likely to be expensive).

 

[geordieblue]

Was Werringon intended to go hand in hand with the Ely upgrade? Or can most of the benefits from the former project still be realised with the latter?

 

[ac6000cw]

Not an expert on this, but my guess is that the whole 'Joint Line' upgrade project business case was built around freeing up paths on the ECML for more passenger trains by moving freight onto the alternative (longer and slower?) route between Peterborough and Doncaster. On that basis Werrington probably had to be viable on the basis of the existing freight traffic.

 

[MikeWM]

I've started a thread in the speculative discussion segment for what could be done as alternative/cheaper proposals, if the government is unwilling to meet the costs of the result of the existing ideas after the consultation exercises last year.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/alternative-plans-for-ely-upgrade-work.233873/
'Alternative plans for Ely upgrade work'

 

[Clarence Yard]

All bidders for the GA franchise saw the plans for this and the reaction in our bid team was, “How much? For just that?!”.

It was felt to be a total waste of money. Getting Haughley re-doubled and putting in a few IB’s cross country was felt to give the same output for much less money, by getting the freight presentation times at Ely matched up with the increased passenger use (the dead duck that is Wisbech-Cambridge excepted).

Funnily enough, Anglia Railways suggested these two improvements back in 2000, when the IOS infrastructure improvement process was still live.

 

[Class 170101]

Is this back to the bad days of BR and cheap make do and mend schemes and low cost capex upgrades but with high yearly and ongoing maintenance costs.

 

[MikeWM]

When are we likely to hear the results of the consultations that have already taken place?

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/runni...lway-in-anglia/ely-area-capacity-enhancement/

• Round 1 consultation 21 September to 1 November 2020
• Round 2 (part 1) consultation 24 May to 4 July 2021
• Round 2 (part 2) consultation 15 October to 28 November 2021

...
Subject to securing further funding, the results of these consultations are expected to be included as part of a future Round 3 public consultation which would set out the preferred options selected to take forward to the consent stage.

It would be rather nice to know something about what representations were made and what options were preferred. If the project gets shelved will this all just be quietly forgotten and we'll never be told?

 

[quantinghome]

Last week I was sitting on a busy train from Peterborough to Cambridge which got delayed behind two freight trains. Obviously no need for this upgrade...

 

[GB]

Last week I was sitting on a busy train from Peterborough to Cambridge which got delayed behind two freight trains. Obviously no need for this upgrade...

How would this upgrade stop you getting delayed behind the freight trains?

 

[Taunton]

The other 'cost' problem is the poor ground conditions in the Fens, making building infrastructure to support the weight of freight trains - e.g. Ely-Soham doubling - more expensive (and if buying farmland, the Fens have some of the best arable land in the country, so it's likely to be expensive).

Apart from alternating in the argument between fine arable land (expensive) but also apparently marsh (poor ground conditions), it's just as well that those countries who readily build roads and railways through swamps, eg in south-east USA, never heard of this, either in the past or nowadays. Brightline is currently building through this swamp-laden Florida territory between Palm Beach and Orlando for USD 1.75bn, about GBP 1.5 billion, that's 3-4 times the Ely cost. For 150 miles distance. At US labour rates.

Plus Cambridgeshire does not have poisonous snakes in profusion, or alligators, for the construction crews!

 

[Trainbike46]

Apart from alternating in the argument between fine arable land (expensive) but also apparently marsh (poor ground conditions), it's just as well that those countries who readily build roads and railways through swamps, eg in south-east USA, never heard of this, either in the past or nowadays. Brightline is currently building through this swamp-laden Florida territory between Palm Beach and Orlando for USD 1.75bn, about GBP 1.5 billion, that's 3-4 times the Ely cost. For 150 miles distance. At US labour rates.

Plus Cambridgeshire does not have poisonous snakes in profusion, or alligators, for the construction crews!

Surprising as it may sound, most of Cambridgeshire (and some land in the surrounding counties) is in fact both very unstable marshy soil that is hard to build on and really good arable land at the same time, due to the peat soils of the drained fens. In some places the ground level has dropped by 4 metres since 1851!

But yeah, the price does sound ridiculous. Maybe they should split the project in a rail part (covering the upgrades to the actual junction) and a road part (covering all the level crossing bridges). If the county council insists on actually doing the road part, they can pay for it instead of Network Rail

 

[quantinghome]

How would this upgrade stop you getting delayed behind the freight trains?

The upgrade provides higher capacity junctions and faster speeds through the area. While it wouldn't stop delays it would allow a delayed train to clear the area quicker and reduce knock-on delays.

 

[Mollman]

The optimist hopes it is being delayed ready for an announcement on Felixstowe - Birmingham electrification (ooh look a flying pig)

 

[Taunton]

Surprising as it may sound, most of Cambridgeshire (and some land in the surrounding counties) is in fact both very unstable marshy soil that is hard to build on and really good arable land at the same time, due to the peat soils of the drained fens. In some places the ground level has dropped by 4 metres since 1851!

But yeah, the price does sound ridiculous. Maybe they should split the project in a rail part (covering the upgrades to the actual junction) and a road part (covering all the level crossing bridges). If the county council insists on actually doing the road part, they can pay for it instead of Network Rail

I can only comment as both one who is very familiar with the Somerset Levels (unstable wetlands but by no means good arable land, cattle grazing is as good as it gets), and also a supporter and periodic visitor to the Wicken Fen preserved site in the Cambridgeshire Fens for 50 years now (goodness!), showing all the details of draining the Fens. And I'm still surprised.

Brunel engineered the Bristol & Exeter from Bristol to Taunton in the 1840s across such lands, not hugely expensive, and which has stood up fine ever since. The GWR engineered, with all modern developments and knowledge, the line from Castle Cary to Taunton in 1900, which has been nothing but trouble ever since, especially around Langport, consuming constant quantities of ballast and Taunton pw staff overtime.

 

[Magdalia]

The difference between the Fens and the Somerset Levels is the drainage. The Fens do not flood in the same way as the Somerset Levels because the excess water goes into the Welney Washes.

But this also creates issues when the Fens dry out, as happened in the 1976 drought. The railway became so unstable that it was 20 mph all the way from March to Whittlesea.

 

[dosxuk]

I'm not sure the stability of the Fenland soil is too much of a problem for the railway improvements - they're all happening in well established railway land and aren't actually all that extensive.

The problem with the land is the whacking great road viaduct that's planned to get across the three lines and river. It's a well known and solved problem, basically identical to the Ely southern bypass that was recently built, so I'd expect the estimates (both work involved and costing) to be pretty accurate.

 

[ac6000cw]

But this also creates issues when the Fens dry out, as happened in the 1976 drought. The railway became so unstable that it was 20 mph all the way from March to Whittlesea.

I think there was similar 'drying out' problem on the Kings Lynn line a few years ago, resulting in it closing for a while for emergency repairs (and there was also an OHLE de-wirement due to the support masts leaning over on the same line). For those who don't know the area, some of the minor roads have a roller-coaster profile in places for the same reason.

Sounds like the capacity upgrade at Ely is all but dead sadly - they're blaming changing travel patterns despite freight being the major beneficiary?

Not true - if you look at the NR info about the project - https://www.networkrail.co.uk/runni...lway-in-anglia/ely-area-capacity-enhancement/ - the project is planned to provide 1 extra freight service per hour, but 2.5 extra passenger service per hour i.e. total services increased from 6.5 to 10 tph.

Last week I was sitting on a busy train from Peterborough to Cambridge which got delayed behind two freight trains. Obviously no need for this upgrade...

The upgrade provides higher capacity junctions and faster speeds through the area. While it wouldn't stop delays it would allow a delayed train to clear the area quicker and reduce knock-on delays.

But for freight, only an extra 400m (short, in relation to intermodal train lengths) freight loop and some unspecified layout changes are proposed, no doubling to Soham, and the major freight route through Ely North is already double track. Sure, replacing the river bridges to allow faster speeds will benefit flow through the Ely area, but at present (based on personal observation) it's not unusual for freights to get signal checked because the goods loop is full and there are passenger trains blocking the other routes through the station - so I'm a little bit dubious that the bridge speed upgrades will make a big difference to freight flow. The proposed moving of the northern junction of the goods loop further north (by having a triple-track bridge) I assume might allow for extra crossovers to enable better utilisation of the two bi-directional tracks north of there, which will help.

Is there a document around with detail on the proposed track layout changes in the Ely station area?

 

[stuu]

Apart from alternating in the argument between fine arable land (expensive) but also apparently marsh (poor ground conditions), it's just as well that those countries who readily build roads and railways through swamps, eg in south-east USA, never heard of this, either in the past or nowadays. Brightline is currently building through this swamp-laden Florida territory between Palm Beach and Orlando for USD 1.75bn, about GBP 1.5 billion, that's 3-4 times the Ely cost. For 150 miles distance. At US labour rates.

Plus Cambridgeshire does not have poisonous snakes in profusion, or alligators, for the construction crews!

No they are not. They are building 36 miles of new single track route, the rest is along the existing line

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2022 ==

I can only comment as both one who is very familiar with the Somerset Levels (unstable wetlands but by no means good arable land, cattle grazing is as good as it gets), and also a supporter and periodic visitor to the Wicken Fen preserved site in the Cambridgeshire Fens for 50 years now (goodness!), showing all the details of draining the Fens. And I'm still surprised.

Brunel engineered the Bristol & Exeter from Bristol to Taunton in the 1840s across such lands, not hugely expensive, and which has stood up fine ever since. The GWR engineered, with all modern developments and knowledge, the line from Castle Cary to Taunton in 1900, which has been nothing but trouble ever since, especially around Langport, consuming constant quantities of ballast and Taunton pw staff overtime.

Different geology. It's clay near the coast, it's peat inland

 

[Magdalen Road]

I'm not sure the stability of the Fenland soil is too much of a problem for the railway improvements - they're all happening in well established railway land and aren't actually all that extensive.

The problem with the land is the whacking great road viaduct that's planned to get across the three lines and river. It's a well known and solved problem, basically identical to the Ely southern bypass that was recently built, so I'd expect the estimates (both work involved and costing) to be pretty accurate.

That would be the same southern bypass that took considerably longer and cost much more than originally planned. Due to the builders discovering the soggy ground needed better foundations. How was that a surprise?

Why a £13m overspend in Ely matters

The Ely Southern Bypass is £21m over its original budget. The Combined Authority and Greater Cambridge Partnership have many more large infrastructure projects in the pipeline. We should be extremely wary of funding these from council borrowing not covered by new income streams.

www.smartertransport.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2022 ==

The road out through Queen Adelaide is quite valuable for those travelling east or north out of Ely. Closure of all the level crossings here without a direct alternative would, for example, require a >10 mile detour for residents of Prickwillow to get into Ely, funnelling more traffic down the congested and dangerous A142.