Electrification versus Ageing rolling stock

[BR Blue]

I`m not convinced that the ongoing electrification schemes will be able to replace any DMUs, when completed by 2016. The diesels units I refer to are the class 142/144 and class 150`s. These types will be, an average of 30 years old, by this point.

The GWML electrification is timed to be finished during 2016. It is expected to receive the new IEP trains. They will replace the life expired HSTs and allow class 165/166`s to be cascaded further west, but still on FGW routes. No EMU`s are available for cascade from this scheme.

The North-West electrification will be completed in stages from 2013-16. Liverpool and Manchester should be linked by 2013. No new rolling stock has been ordered or is expected to be ordered for this route. 10 class 350`s are to be built for TPE on their Manchester to Scotland service. This will release a similar number of class 185 DMUs. These heavy, 100mph units are unlikely to find themselves on former pacer duties.

Both the GWML and North-West have been promised a future cascade of class 319 EMUs, released when the thameslink programme is complete. The new fleet of trains for thameslink are expected to arrive 2015-18. Due to various delays(Siemans being a German company, and all that), the order for new EMUs hasn`t been signed off yet. There could be more delays, who knows, plus, new units would need to be tested and arrive in large enough numbers to free up the 319s( built between 1986-90, so getting on a bit themselves).

Unless there is a commitment for an order of new build EMUs, then these life expired diesels will just have to soldier on.

 

[anthony263]

Isn't the plan for the class 150's to have a major overhual and be refited with DDA compliant toilets? same with the class 143 & 156/158 fleets

 

[mallard]

These heavy, 100mph units are unlikely to find themselves on former pacer duties.

No, but they could (in theory, I'm not sure what the actual plan is) find themselves on former 158 duties, with 158s going to former 156 duties and 156s going to former pacer duties.

It's called a "cascade" for a reason...

 

[markydh]

Pacers will only start being withdrawn once Northern (or its replacement) start receiving Class 319s from FCC. Class 185s released from Manchester - Scotland will be used to boost capacity on the rest of the TPE routes, most probably in the Leeds - Manchester 'core'. CP5 plans are for North TPE to be electrified. Only once (or if) that is complete will 185s start finding themselves new homes. 319s are probably good for another 18 or so years.

 

[northwichcat]

Pacers will only start being withdrawn once Northern (or its replacement) start receiving Class 319s from FCC. Class 185s released from Manchester - Scotland will be used to boost capacity on the rest of the TPE routes, most probably in the Leeds - Manchester 'core'. CP5 plans are for North TPE to be electrified. Only once (or if) that is complete will 185s start finding themselves new homes. 319s are probably good for another 18 or so years.

Most of those 319s are supposed to be providing additional capacity not replacement capacity. Also with 319s being 4 car not 2 car there's less flexibility so a greater number of sets will be needed. Remember the planned 319 cascade replaced an order of brand new DMUs for Northern, TPE and FGW and an order of new EMUs that were supposed to replace the 323s and provide extra capacity at Northern. The LO and LM 150s were still supposed to be divided between FGW and Northern even if the new DMU order had gone ahead.

 

[anthony263]

Most of those 319s are supposed to be providing additional capacity not replacement capacity. Also with 319s being 4 car not 2 car there's less flexibility so a greater number of sets will be needed. Remember the planned 319 cascade replaced an order of brand new DMUs for Northern, TPE and FGW and an order of new EMUs that were supposed to replace the 323s and provide extra capacity at Northern. The LO and LM 150s were still supposed to be divided between FGW and Northern even if the new DMU order had gone ahead.

A bit of a mistake if you ask me FGW for example will still need more dmu's even with the 165/166's when they are displaced.

I think they should have gone ahead and ordered those 11 4 carriage class 172's for the Cardiff - Portsmouth Hbr services.

The 3 carriage 158's could have then been re-formed back to 2 carriage sets and used to boost capacity elsewhere

 

[DarloRich]

Electrification IF the new rolling stock is spec'd right - if not i will keep the old stuff (mainly becuase it is more comfortbale than the new sytuff!)

 

[sprinterguy]

A bit of a mistake if you ask me FGW for example will still need more dmu's even with the 165/166's when they are displaced.

If the GWML electrification can release a number of Network Turbos equivalent to the size of the thirty six strong 165 fleet, then if they move over to working Bristol and West Country services I think that FGW will be very comfortable with the size of its' DMU fleet, even allowing for the withdrawal of the eight 143s.
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I'm not convinced that the ongoing electrification schemes will be able to replace any DMUs, when completed by 2016. The diesels units I refer to are the class 142/144 and class 150's. These types will be, an average of 30 years old, by this point.

You're right, the currently announced schemes won't do much for Pacer replacement. Although the GWML electrification should allow for the withdrawal of FGWs' eight 143s, and perhaps get rid of some of ATWs' Pacers (Perhaps the 142s, but they'd probably only go as far as Northern if current practice is anything to go by!) if some 150s moved from FGW to ATW following the cascade of Network Turbos.

Fortunately, hope appears to be blossoming for many of the favoured electrification projects much liked by a number of posters on this forum. Fingers crossed that they get approval, and then we can be well on the way to Pacer replacement.

I don't believe that there is a need to replace the 150s for a while yet if they can be made DDA compliant. I'd consider them to be quite an integral part of Pacer replacement, through a process of cascades, in the medium term future.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No, but they could (in theory, I'm not sure what the actual plan is) find themselves on former 158 duties, with 158s going to former 156 duties and 156s going to former pacer duties.

The Class 185 units (to which your posting refers) that will eventually be released from their duties by the proposed 4-car electric units on the Manchester Airport to Scotland routes, once the Lancashire Triangle part of that electrification is completed, have been earmarked for strengthening the existing services that use these same units, according to previous postings on this forum.

 

[northwichcat]

A bit of a mistake if you ask me FGW for example will still need more dmu's even with the 165/166's when they are displaced.

They were supposed to meet projected passenger numbers in 2013 but due to Thameslink delays the 319 cascade is 3 years behind schedule.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The Class 185 units (to which your posting refers) that will eventually be released from their duties by the proposed 4-car electric units on the Manchester Airport to Scotland routes, once the Lancashire Triangle part of that electrification is completed, have been earmarked for strengthening the existing services that use these same units, according to previous postings on this forum.

The 185s off Manchester Airport to Blackpool will also go to strengthen other TPE service. It's likely the 2 car 170 will be eliminated first. (TPE were supposed to have 4 sets of 4 car 170 diagrams and not be using them in 2 car formation.)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I don't believe that there is a need to replace the 150s for a while yet if they can be made DDA compliant. I'd consider them to be quite an integral part of Pacer replacement, through a process of cascades, in the medium term future.

During the 2019-2014 CP was specified by Network Rail in previous RUS' for 150 replacement. Remember the former FNW 150s have had the expensive part of DDA compliance done (the accessible toilet.)

 

[BR Blue]

I`ve copied this from the Initial Industry Plan for CP5:


Possible fleet numbers
If average fleet age is to be maintained, assuming notional technical lives of 30-35
years, would imply that around 3 per cent of the fleet or 350 to 400 vehicles would be
replaced per annum. Amongst the vehicle types potentially falling due for
replacement on grounds of age are DMU Class 14x and 150, EMU Classes 313, 314,
315, 317, 318, 507 and 508, and remaining HST and Mark III vehicles, which are in
use on a number of long distance routes.
The rate of renewal during CP4 has been lower than this, partly because it has
proved possible to operate trains beyond their notional lives and partly because of
substantial changes in fleet strategy that have followed the decision to begin an
electrification programme.
Although life extension and refurbishment can sometimes be cost effective (with
reported capital costs in the range of 5 to 20 per cent of new build costs), this option
needs to be set against other factors:
 technical life cannot be extended indefinitely
 obsolescence of key systems such as IT and control equipment (much of
which on new trains is not necessarily designed to last 30-35 years);
Network strategies and plans
 the opportunity that new build offers for maintenance and energy cost saving
(particularly from being able to use more modern diesel engines, better
transmissions, and modern electric motors/traction packages, the latter
offering the opportunity to regenerate electricity which can offer 20 per cent
savings on electricity costs);
 new trains can more easily be designed to accelerate faster than older fleets,
an increasingly important factor given the push for better journey times and,
on busy routes, to use fleets with homogenous technical characteristics in
order to maximise capacity;
 the opportunity that new build offers to develop better service patterns or fleet
deployments as opposed to simply ‘like for like’ replacement. For example,
new electric trains on the Birmingham and Manchester to Scotland services
will release high-acceleration diesels for use elsewhere and provide more
capacity;
 the need to progressively equip the fleet with ERTMS equipment, it being
cheaper to fit ERTMS when trains are being built than to retrofit it later;
 tightening environmental legislation for diesel engines (especially current EU
emissions requirements); and
 the need to make the existing fleet compatible with accessibility requirements
PRM-TSI by 2020, which might tip the balance towards faster replacements
of older rolling stock.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The 185s off Manchester Airport to Blackpool will also go to strengthen other TPE service. It's likely the 2 car 170 will be eliminated first. (TPE were supposed to have 4 sets of 4 car 170 diagrams and not be using them in 2 car formation.)

I had realised this, but cited the case of the route to Scotland in my posting as the electrification from Manchester to Newton le Willows is supposed to be completed first and will allow the 4-car electric unit service to be operated (subject to these electric units arriving on time to run these services).

The last time that I heard for the completion of the electrification of the Preston to Blackpool route was December 2015, as shown in a National Rail 4pp card on the project. Has there been any updated completion date for that line that I am unaware of ?

 

[northwichcat]

The last time that I heard for the completion of the electrification of the Preston to Blackpool route was December 2015, as shown in a National Rail 4pp card on the project. Has there been any updated completion date for that line that I am unaware of ?

Still is as the electrification project has not been delayed or put back. However, the first set of 319s were supposed to be in the North West fully and refurbished by 2013 and now FCC will need them in service until 2015.

 

[anthony263]

Still is as the electrification project has not been delayed or put back. However, the first set of 319s were supposed to be in the North West fully and refurbished by 2013 and now FCC will need them in service until 2015.

I still think they should order brand new emu's for Northern and let FGW et more class 319's

If they order 377's it also gives Bombardiers derby works my work.

 

[HSTEd]

So 300-400 carriages a year have to be replaced to retain the current fleet age..... out of interest if all carriages were built at Derby... would that be enough to keep it open or would it require additional work on top of that?

 

[BR Blue]

300-400 carriages a year would only maintain the size of the current fleet. To allow for growth the production rate would need to be higher, perhaps 500-600 carriages per annum.

 

[HSTEd]

Well the entire S-stock order (S8 and S7) comes to some 1801 passenger service carriages and that was considered a sufficiently enormous order to keep them going quite a while, so the 350-600 per year carriage range would most likely keep them open easily.

But that would require the Works be renationalised and be building under licence or we hand a monopoly to Bombardier.

 

[BR Blue]

It doesn`t matter who builds new rolling stock for the UK network. Its the scarcity of new orders and promises of cascades that are beset with delay.