Electrification Projects; Potential DMU Cascades and Replacement

[158722]

Associated with the thread about the impact of the various electrification projects and new build EMUs, below is an attempted review of the impact these will all have of DMU fleet requirements.

DMU Displacements; ScotRail
May 2014 EGIP Cumbernauld & Whifflet - 6x 158 displaced; Retained ScotRail for Fife/Borders line.
Dec 2016 EGIP E&G - 12 to 16x 170 displaced;
• 8x 170 replace 8x 158 in Fife, resulting in 8x 158 to NOR;
• 6x 170 replace 6x 158 in Fife, which replace 6x 156 on Shotts route resulting in 6x 156 to NOR.
Dec 2018 Glasgow SW – 10 to 12x 156 displaced, resulting in 14x 156 displaced to NOR.
Dec 2018 EGIP Stirling – 18 to 20x 158 & 170 displaced; Two options
• Option A; 13x 170 replace 16x 156 on GSW resulting in 16x 156 to NOR & 5x 158 displaced to NOR;
• Option B; 9x 170 replace 10x 156 on WHL resulting in 10x 156 to NOR & 10x 158 replace 10x 156 on GSW resulting in 20x 156 to NOR.
May 2019 EGIP Shotts – 6 to 10x 158 displaced; Two options (linked with EGIP Stirling)
• Option A; 10x 158 to EMT;
• Option B; 8x 158 replace 8x 156 on GSW, resulting in 8x 156 to EMT.

Results
Option A – 96 DMUs Retained; 36x 156 and 23x 158 displaced
12x 156 for WHL, 25x 158 (158701-725) for IS/North, 13x 170 (170393-396/470-478) for GSW & 46x 170 (170401-434/450-461) for Express/Fife/Borders.
Option B – 99 DMUs Retained; 48x 156 and 8x 158 displaced
9x 170 (170470-478) for WHL, 25x 158 (158701-725) for IS/North, 15x 158 (158726-741) for GSW & 50x 170 (170393-396/401-434/450-461) for Express/Fife/Borders.

Proposals require route clearance work on GSW and WHL for 158s and/or 170s. Note that based on the current/planned timetable & timings, Glasgow-Kilmarnock requires 2 diagrams, Glasgow-Carlisle/Newcastle (or Carlisle Hourly) requires 6 diagrams whilst Glasgow/Kilmarnock-Ayr-Girvan-Stranraer requires 4 diagrams. Total of 12 GSW diagrams. West Highland from Glasgow QS-Oban, Fort William & Mallaig requires a minimum of 6 RETB diagrams. Anniesland covered by mix of WH and Express 170s.

 

[WatcherZero]

The 185's would be excellent for replacing Sprinters on long distance duties and rural routes where a pair of Sprinters would be too long therefore allowing Sprinters to replace Pacers on inner suburban routes however it will mean a lot of branch lines will have to be gauge cleared for 23m up from 20m carriages.

 

[158722]

DMU Displacements; Northern
Dec 2014 North West Liverpool-Manchester/Wigan - 12 to 16x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
May 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool - 4x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 4x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool – 10 to 12x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 EGIP E&G - 8x 158 & 6x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 8x 158 ex-SCR to Neville Hill, which replace 8x 150 NH, displacing 8x NH 142 for Scrap;
• 6x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 6x Heaton 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2017 LM Rugeley - 3x 150 from LM displaced to NOR;
• 3x 150 ex-LM to Newton Heath, allowing transfer of 4x NH 156 to Anglia to replace 5x 153;
• 5x Anglia 153 displaced back to NOR temporarily or Scrap.
Dec 2018 EGIP Stirling – 20/21x 156 & 158 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 16x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 16x Heaton 142 for Scrap;
• 4/5x 156 or 158 ex-SCR to NL or NH, which replace 5x 150 NH, displacing 5x NH 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2018 Glasgow SW – 14x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 14x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 14x Heaton 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2018 Trans-Pennine - 6x 142 displaced, 30x 170 & 185 displaced from TPX to Northern;
• 6x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap;
• 21x 185 ex-TPX displace 28x 156/158 on York-Blackpool/S&C/Copy Pit/Leeds-Notts, allowing displacement of 23x 144 & 7x 155 for Scrap;
• 9x 170 ex-TPX displace 9x 156/158 on York-Blackpool/S&C/Copy Pit/Leeds-Notts, allowing displacement of 17x 153 (or 22x if Anglia units absorbed) for Scrap.

Current fleet of 79 class 142s. 43x Newton Heath units sees 24x displaced by NW electrification by Dec 2016 and 19x displaced by 156/158 ex-SCR & TPX electrification by Dec 2018, whilst Heaton’s 36x 142s are replaced by 156 ex-SCR by Dec 2018.
All 23x class 144s, 17x class 153s (plus a possible extra 5x ex-Anglia units) and all 7x class 155s displaced by cascaded ex-SCR 156/158 & exTPX 170/185 by Dec 2018.
Units received are 3x LM class 150s, 36 or 48 ex-SCR 156s, 8 or 23 ex-SCR 158s, 9x ex-TPX 170s and 21 ex-TPX 185s, whilst around 38 diagrams are replaced by EMUs due to electrification.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
DMU Displacements; Great Western
Dec 2016 onwards GW Thames – 46x class 165/166 displaced from GW Thames to GW West;
• 15x 2-car 165 replace 8x 143 & 14x 153 for Scrap;
• 5x 2-car 165 & 5x 3-car 165 displace 10x class 150 to ATW;
• 21x 3-car 166 displace 21x 158, which in turn, displace 28x class 150 to ATW;
• 38x 150/1 and 150/2 received by ATW displace 15x 142, 15x 143 and 8x 153 to Scrap.
• IEP replaces 5x class 180 to Grand Central (?)
Balance by Dec 2018 for GW DMU fleet sees Thames region retain 11x 3-car class 165 for Reading-Gatwick & Basingstoke whilst West receives 46x class 165/166s (totalling 116 vehicles, replacing 110 existing class 142, 150 & 153 vehicles) and retains all 21x class 158s (reformed back to 20x 2-car sets and 1x 3-car). Significant gauge clearance required for 165/166 on West routes.

 

[Manchester77]

On northern I've always felt that the 185s would be good being displaced onto Scottish Highland Lines and the Buxton Line

 

[SkinnyDave]

DMU Displacements; Northern
Dec 2014 North West Liverpool-Manchester/Wigan - 12 to 16x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
May 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool - 4x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 4x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool – 10 to 12x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 EGIP E&G - 8x 158 & 6x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 8x 158 ex-SCR to Neville Hill, which replace 8x 150 NH, displacing 8x NH 142 for Scrap;
• 6x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 6x Heaton 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2017 LM Rugeley - 3x 150 from LM displaced to NOR;
• 3x 150 ex-LM to Newton Heath, allowing transfer of 4x NH 156 to Anglia to replace 5x 153;
• 5x Anglia 153 displaced back to NOR temporarily or Scrap.
Dec 2018 EGIP Stirling – 20/21x 156 & 158 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 16x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 16x Heaton 142 for Scrap;
• 4/5x 156 or 158 ex-SCR to NL or NH, which replace 5x 150 NH, displacing 5x NH 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2018 Glasgow SW – 14x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 14x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 14x Heaton 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2018 Trans-Pennine - 6x 142 displaced, 30x 170 & 185 displaced from TPX to Northern;
• 6x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap;
• 21x 185 ex-TPX displace 28x 156/158 on York-Blackpool/S&C/Copy Pit/Leeds-Notts, allowing displacement of 23x 144 & 7x 155 for Scrap;
• 9x 170 ex-TPX displace 9x 156/158 on York-Blackpool/S&C/Copy Pit/Leeds-Notts, allowing displacement of 17x 153 (or 22x if Anglia units absorbed) for Scrap.

Current fleet of 79 class 142s. 43x Newton Heath units sees 24x displaced by NW electrification by Dec 2016 and 19x displaced by 156/158 ex-SCR & TPX electrification by Dec 2018, whilst Heaton’s 36x 142s are replaced by 156 ex-SCR by Dec 2018.
All 23x class 144s, 17x class 153s (plus a possible extra 5x ex-Anglia units) and all 7x class 155s displaced by cascaded ex-SCR 156/158 & exTPX 170/185 by Dec 2018.
Units received are 3x LM class 150s, 36 or 48 ex-SCR 156s, 8 or 23 ex-SCR 158s, 9x ex-TPX 170s and 21 ex-TPX 185s, whilst around 38 diagrams are replaced by EMUs due to electrification.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
DMU Displacements; Great Western
Dec 2016 onwards GW Thames – 46x class 165/166 displaced from GW Thames to GW West;
• 15x 2-car 165 replace 8x 143 & 14x 153 for Scrap;
• 5x 2-car 165 & 5x 3-car 165 displace 10x class 150 to ATW;
• 21x 3-car 166 displace 21x 158, which in turn, displace 28x class 150 to ATW;
• 38x 150/1 and 150/2 received by ATW displace 15x 142, 15x 143 and 8x 153 to Scrap.
• IEP replaces 5x class 180 to Grand Central (?)
Balance by Dec 2018 for GW DMU fleet sees Thames region retain 11x 3-car class 165 for Reading-Gatwick & Basingstoke whilst West receives 46x class 165/166s (totalling 116 vehicles, replacing 110 existing class 142, 150 & 153 vehicles) and retains all 21x class 158s (reformed back to 20x 2-car sets and 1x 3-car). Significant gauge clearance required for 165/166 on West routes.

Are the Turbos definitely going over to West?

 

[anthony263]

According to an article in Modern Railways FGW and Network rail do seem to be preparing for them so I would assume yes.

I personally would like to see some of the class 156's casaded from Scotrail to ATW when they become available as they have more seats and are better for long distance services such as the heart of wales line.

If Scotrail have some class 170's available if these are 4 carriage units perhaps FGW could look at them for the Cardiff - portsmouth Hbr route

 

[D365]

If Scotrail have some class 170s available if these are 4 carriage units perhaps FGW could look at them for the Cardiff - portsmouth Hbr route

There are no 4-car 170s; only in the form of numerous 168s and 171s.

 

[158722]

According to an article in Modern Railways FGW and Network rail do seem to be preparing for them so I would assume yes.

I personally would like to see some of the class 156's casaded from Scotrail to ATW when they become available as they have more seats and are better for long distance services such as the heart of wales line.

If Scotrail have some class 170's available if these are 4 carriage units perhaps FGW could look at them for the Cardiff - portsmouth Hbr route

I have every confidence that Scotland will have to release all of its 156s before there is any chance of 170s heading south and even the 158s I have suggested might move south, are likely to be restricted to the 8 extra ones they got from Northern a few years ago. Personally, I can see them displacing the 48 156s and 8 'foreign' 158s with 158s & 170s taking over the WH and GSW in whatever way around. The numbers seem to add up to allow this!

 

[ainsworth74]

That will however require gauge clearance work as 170s/158s are not currently cleared for services on those lines. Though it would certainly be nice and neat!

 

[anthony263]

The WG does seem to have a bit of a history of taking on units from Scotland.

Providing they can be cleared I agree it would be good for scotrail to have a uniform fleet of class 158/170's.

The displaced class foreign class 158's and the class 156's would be welcomed by many other operators especially for routes where these units will be ideal. I am sure the Cambrian line will welcome additional class 158's and the class 156's will be ideal for other routes in wales such as the heart of wales line for example

 

[158722]

The WG does seem to have a bit of a history of taking on units from Scotland.

Providing they can be cleared I agree it would be good for scotrail to have a uniform fleet of class 158/170's.

The displaced class foreign class 158's and the class 156's would be welcomed by many other operators especially for routes where these units will be ideal. I am sure the Cambrian line will welcome additional class 158's and the class 156's will be ideal for other routes in wales such as the heart of wales line for example

Perhaps I should clarifiy that what I was trying to prove with the numbers of displaced units is what could in TOTAL be shifted around, for example as in how many units Scotland will be able to release. Those Scottish 156s and 158s seem to allow Northern to dispense with their Pacers, but that doesn't mean that extra swaps can't be considered, with 158s moving to Wales in return for 150s for example, depending on each type of unit's suitability for certain services. I agree that in theory, Northern might find 150s better employed on their residual suburban routes than 158s, which in turn may be better utilised by Arriva on some of their longer routes, such as the Heart of Wales.

Overall though, its looks as if it is possible to bin all of the Pacers and 153s/155s by 2019. The next part is a cunning plan to allow the withdrawl of all of the HSTs...

 

[anthony263]

True enough but I am not sure the class 158's are suitable for the Heart of Wales line unless trains continue beyond Shrewsbury to perhaps Crewe and beyond.

Then again we do have the situation where a class 158 is used on the Cardiff - Ebbw Vale service. Perhaps we could see ATW/WG swapping some class 150's with Northern in exchange for class 158's

 

[tbtc]

Once the planned electrifications are completed in Scotland, the remaining DMU lines are going to be:

* - Long distance "fast" services like Edinubrgh/Glasgow to Aberdeen/ Inverness that the 170s are probably best on
* - Slow services on scenic lines like the under-rated GSW, the WHL, the Far North, Kyle - where a 156 should be able to cope (but some better seats in for the longer distance services if you insist, but 75mph is more than enough on these routes and there's little point in upgrading them to 100mph)

For me, the first ones to leave Scotland should be the 158s as there's going to be a lot less need for them (once routes like Dunblane are electrified)

 

[158722]

Once the planned electrifications are completed in Scotland, the remaining DMU lines are going to be:

* - Long distance "fast" services like Edinubrgh/Glasgow to Aberdeen/ Inverness that the 170s are probably best on
* - Slow services on scenic lines like the under-rated GSW, the WHL, the Far North, Kyle - where a 156 should be able to cope (but some better seats in for the longer distance services if you insist, but 75mph is more than enough on these routes and there's little point in upgrading them to 100mph)

For me, the first ones to leave Scotland should be the 158s as there's going to be a lot less need for them (once routes like Dunblane are electrified)

I suggest a look at the recent past - the Scottish government vetoed the plan to exchange some 158s with english 156s and we have had 158s trundling back and forth to Kyle for years now. We also have had significant number of 170s built for suburban work in Fife and the Central belt, in addition to the Express work. Both fleets are quite happy on such services and providing levels of quality which much of Englandshire looks upon with envy. There is no way the SG is going to let standards slip. ScotRail (diesel) will be a 158 and 170 only railway by the end of the decade...

 

[tbtc]

I suggest a look at the recent past - the Scottish government vetoed the plan to exchange some 158s with english 156s and we have had 158s trundling back and forth to Kyle for years now. We also have had significant number of 170s built for suburban work in Fife and the Central belt, in addition to the Express work. Both fleets are quite happy on such services and providing levels of quality which much of Englandshire looks upon with envy. There is no way the SG is going to let standards slip. ScotRail (diesel) will be a 158 and 170 only railway by the end of the decade...

Oh, I'm well aware of the history of the units in recent years,, but getting rid of 156s (and keeping all of the 158s and 170s) would be vanity in my eyes, especially as 158s would need more than just paperwork to clear them for the WHL.

 

[Tobbes]

How much work would be required to clear the WHL for the 158s? I'd have thought that they'd be perfect with their deep windows and comfortable seating. You may need to have more cycle spaces and luggage space, but it would be great to have paired or six car 158s on these services in the summer season.

And I'd not object to having them run a little faster... more time playing in the highlands and islands is always welcome....!

Tobbes

 

[andyb2706]

OK, after reading about all the possible scrapping of units over the next few years I had better get a move on and get my required haulage on the 142's......is this a sign of insanity or dedication to the cause?

 

[D365]

OK, after reading about all the possible scrapping of units over the next few years I had better get a move on and get my required haulage on the 142s......is this a sign of insanity or dedication to the cause?

Having the 142 fleet gone by 2020 is at least a start... As they aren't supposed to be as economic to overhaul as the later 143/144 builds. Also hearing suggestions again that the 153/155 'sag' may prove terminal, combined with the fact that the former won't be overhauled in single-car units.

 

[northwichcat]

DMU Displacements; Northern
Dec 2014 North West Liverpool-Manchester/Wigan - 12 to 16x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
May 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool - 4x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 4x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool – 10 to 12x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 EGIP E&G - 8x 158 & 6x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 8x 158 ex-SCR to Neville Hill, which replace 8x 150 NH, displacing 8x NH 142 for Scrap;

I think those are very unlikely. Where is the stock going to come from to run the new service on the Todmorden curve or to extend some Calder Vale services to Manchester Airport via the Ordsall Chord if you're scrapping the released DMUs? And those are just the two that are getting a lot of infrastructure spending, so it's almost imperative that additional services are introduced. There's also other diesel lines that are set to get more services as part of the Northern Hub and other lines that'll need replacement local services to compensate for the loss of TPE services e.g. the Bolton line.

 

[Altnabreac]

I suggest a look at the recent past - the Scottish government vetoed the plan to exchange some 158s with english 156s and we have had 158s trundling back and forth to Kyle for years now. We also have had significant number of 170s built for suburban work in Fife and the Central belt, in addition to the Express work. Both fleets are quite happy on such services and providing levels of quality which much of Englandshire looks upon with envy. There is no way the SG is going to let standards slip. ScotRail (diesel) will be a 158 and 170 only railway by the end of the decade...

I still think that the WHL, Stranraer and Far North are the perfect place for a new DMU order. A tourism focused build (panoramic windows, extra luggage/cycle space) would be ideal and the units would have a 30-40 year future as those lines are very unlikely ever to be electrified.

 

[SkinnyDave]

I still think that the WHL, Stranraer and Far North are the perfect place for a new DMU order. A tourism focused build (panoramic windows, extra luggage/cycle space) would be ideal and the units would have a 30-40 year future as those lines are very unlikely ever to be electrified.

Seconded

 

[158722]

Seconded

Not happening. No leasing company is going to invest in DMUs in the next few years when there is no need for them over their 35+ year lifespan. There is still an awful lot of life in ten existing fleet of DMUs, which will slowly diminish in number as electrification spreads. The only diesel units which will get built over the next decade will be bi-modes, which are a bit more future proof than pure diesels.

 

[Altnabreac]

Not happening. No leasing company is going to invest in DMUs in the next few years when there is no need for them over their 35+ year lifespan. There is still an awful lot of life in ten existing fleet of DMUs, which will slowly diminish in number as electrification spreads. The only diesel units which will get built over the next decade will be bi-modes, which are a bit more future proof than pure diesels.

No leasing company is going to invest in a commuter spec DMU for use on lines that are likely to be electrified in the next 15 years. A specific rural lines DMU would have a 35 year lifespan so would be more likely to get funded. Especially as it would be a fairly small volume order.

The 156s and 158s will be life expired long before WHL is electrified and I just don't see 170s or 185s as suitable for those sorts of duties. Maybe not in the next 2 years but I'd expect an order like this to happen before 2020

 

[158722]

No leasing company is going to invest in a commuter spec DMU for use on lines that are likely to be electrified in the next 15 years. A specific rural lines DMU would have a 35 year lifespan so would be more likely to get funded. Especially as it would be a fairly small volume order.

The 156s and 158s will be life expired long before WHL is electrified and I just don't see 170s or 185s as suitable for those sorts of duties. Maybe not in the next 2 years but I'd expect an order like this to happen before 2020

Ok, so imagine we are in CP6 post-2020 with all of the EGIP plans implemented and Scotland using only 158s and 170s. Surely the next part of the rolling electrification program will be around the Fife circle and to Dundee, Dunblane on to Perth and possibly onwards to Aberdeen plus if successful, the Borders line, whilst the GSW from Carlisle to Kilmarnock/Barrhead and Ayr/Girvan might also get a look in. That all adds up to fair few miles to be wired, but probably realistic within a 5 year period.

By the end of the period in 2025, the 158s will be 35 years old and probably close to retirement, whilst the 170s will be 20-25ish and with another 10 years or more of useful life. I'd suggest that the logical process is for the 170s to see out their last decade on the remaining non-electrified lines with the 158s withdrawn. By 2025 and beyond, perhaps the Highland mainline will get wired, but who knows about the other Highland lines. One thing is for sure, the price and available of energy - diesel or electric - will be playing a huge, huge influence in decisions by then!