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Electrification of GWML: some uncomfortable truths

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I do think the bubble will burst and there will be a big reduction in foreign travel (at least for everyone, given the rich will be just fine) before we invent some alternatives - as you mention - that can make foreign travel an affordable reality again.

Interesting comments there. Been pondering this one too.

Remember 150 years ago, most people only travelled as far they could on foot. Rail travel then allowed all the very poorest to see something of their own country. Foreign travel was out of the question for all but the super rich.

It's only in the last 60 years, the most ordinary folk had a car and only in the last 20 years that mass foreign travel really took off. (and by that I mean, cheap weekends in Paris, Barcelona).

When oil production starts to decline, in the west, you may well see a gentle reversion back to the travel patterns of the 1970s and earlier: fewer fancy foreign trips, and less pointless car trips. There's some miserable stat which shows the bulk of car trips are just ones to the corner shop.

Rail could weather the energy price storm. Simply because it's been around for nearly 200 years and pre-dates cars and planes. Cheap oil has been made mass car and plane travel possible. Technology made mass rail travel possible.
 
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A properly funded and operated public transport system would have a number of benefits in my opinion, including reducing the need for the number of cars in semi-urban areas, as well as generating jobs for the unemployed.

I think it is a crazy world where the perception is that we should pay people to stay at home, whilst the rest of us work hard to pay for them to exercise that "privilege", when there is so much that is needed to be done in this Country and is crying out for labour to do it.

Some years back I recall talking to a Soviet official about cost cutting and his view was that it was better for an economy to benefit from a little inefficiency if it meant that its citizens were in work and contributing, rather than being free to do whatever they wished. I have to say this was an observation that I had to agree with.

It could be argued that many of our current social problems eminate from unemployed youth finding ways to spend their time through boredom.

I believe there is a position somewhere between Capitalism and Communisim which we have not quite managed to reach, and I presume it is unlikely that we ever will.
 
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A properly funded and operated public transport system would have a number of benefits in my opinion, including reducing the need for the number of cars in semi-urban areas, as well as generating jobs for the unemployed.

In many instances, bus use had declined because people wanted to take their cars. And cars have got a lot cheaper to buy now. You can get a second hand car for scarcely three months' salary.

Now we have built up an 'semi-urban' society on the assumption that everyone can get to the places in cars: witness the number of out of town shopping centres, country pubs with huge cars parks, park and ride railway stations and multi plex cinemas. And just look at the number of places of work on the edge of towns with these wretched business parks.

Changing the patterns of commerce will change the patterns of travel. And that means town centre jobs and town centre retail. I'd willingly bulldoze a lot of these identikit out of town shopping centres and business parks. Shift the lot of it back into the city centres...
 

90019

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When Concorde stopped flying, we suddenly doubled the time it takes to get to New York. I think in the years to come, people will come to accept longer journey times. They'll accept it because they'll want to save money and choose cash savings over a short flight.

That's one of the main reasons there's been no successor to concorde, and also why it was always a bit of a white elephant.
When it was first dreamed up, the direction at the time was towards decreasing flight times, as air travel was for business and the rich. But, by the time it was actually built, the emphasis had moved to cheap flights on big planes which crammed as many people in as possible.
 

jon0844

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There's of course nothing to say that we might one day get planes flying even faster, without having to burn stupid amounts of fuel.

I do think it was a shame that we lost Concorde, given its amazing safety record until that accident, when there was probably still a market for the rich and famous to use.

There were many reasons why passenger numbers may have fallen after the accident and other events, but I am sure it could have still flown.
 

Peter Mugridge

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We're getting a bit off topic here, but there are a couple of points that need to be said to be clear on things:

Fuel consumption: When in supersonic cruise, Concorde was actually quite economical; the problem was the huge fuel burn required during take off and while operating at subsonic speeds. The airframe - quite reasonably - was optimised for supersonic flight ( during which phase the engines were running at the same rate as when idling on the ground ).

When Concorde was designed, it was hoped that overland supersonic flight would be permitted. In the event, fears over the intensity of the sonic boom led to this being banned, wwhich meant long subsonic segments of flight at the London and Paris ends of the routes. As it happens, the boom intensity was rather less than feared, but the ban remained in place. There are You Tube clips available of the boom as heard from QE2 in the middle of the Atlantic.

An improved version of Concorde, called Concorde B, was under development which would have reduced subsonic fuel consumption and was in fact going to be applied to the 17th production airframe onwards, but this was cancelled and only 16 production airframes were built.


The end of Concorde:

This had less to do with the Paris crash than a number of other factors.

Firstly, because of the nature of the Concorde operation, a high proportion of the passengers were heavy repeat users from senior positions in business, particularly in the financial sector. Sadly, a high proportion of these regular passengers were lost in the WTC on 11th September 2001; worse - in many cases these people were the only ones in their company who had the seniority to authorise other people in their companies to travel by Concorde. It was a double whammy, and in the subsequent chaos their replacements were unable to gain the authority required.

Secondly, while BA had constantly updated their interiors, AF had not - so while BA's flights were nearly always full, AF were losing passenger volume ( some AF flights reputedly only had half a dozen passengers on board ), a factor not helped by it having been one of their aircraft which crashed. And BA had more operational flexibilty, even to the extent of being able to "step back" the diagrams at both JFK and LHR so that a cancellation was very unlikely. AF had a smaller fleet even before the crash and did not have this flexibility.

There was one other important factor; not long after flights resumed a second AF aircraft was almost lost, near Halifax, and only narrowly managed to make an emergency landing. This is well documented on the web and I see no reason to repeat the details here; it did, however, make AF realise what the damage to their image would be if they had lost this aircraft. Faced with their low passenger volume and tighter margins ( AF had a longer subsonic segment frm Paris than BA did from London ), AF decided to pull out.

Once AF decided to pull out, the full maintenance burden would fall upon BA. Even with their higher passenger volumes, the increase in costs would have been unviable. It did not help that the fleet was reaching the point at which a life extension programme would be neccessary, at considerable cost. So a joint withdrawal from service was announced, albeit reluctantly on BA's part.

BA actually made an operating profit from their Concorde fleet which is generally thought to have been £750 million over the lifetime of the aircraft; AF on the other hand is thought to have always run at a small operating loss, which increased after the return to flight.

Rather than put any more detail on here and take the thread even more off topic, I would suggest researching the details over in the Concorde forum; there is an awful lot of material on this over there.




Meanwhile, to get back on topic, electrifcation - like it or not it is the way forward. Apart from anything else, it is easier to scrub the exhaust of one power station than it is for 100 power cars.
 
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Interesting post there about Concorde. It's a good pointer about all public transport: make sure have a big enough fleet so that you are not dependent on one customer pulling out of maintaing your vehicle/plane. And make sure you have a wide passenger base. Better to rely on 1000 lower paid travellers, than 10 really wealthy customers. Only takes a few to pull out...
 

Peter Mugridge

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That is true, though it has to be pointed out that until the 1972 / 1973 oil crisis there were over 120 orders and options for Concorde from all around the World.

So the real lesson is, perhaps, to make sure that you future proof your transport by not making it totally dependent on cheap oil for viability.

Which very neatly brings this fully back on topic because...

If you think about it, is another good reason to electrify as widely as possible while we can. An electrified railway is not tied to oil as a source for electricity. There is in addition coal, nuclear and several renewables for a start.

A non-electrified route is more or less tied to relying on oil.
 
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A non-electrified route is more or less tied to relying on oil.

So agree with you. Electric trains are democratic too. Electrify the MML and Cross country and millions of passengers benefit with cleaner, greener, quicker trains.

Order a fleet of 16 concordes and only the richest few hundred benefit.
 

Peter Mugridge

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That misses the point a bit; had there been no 1972/3 oil crisis, there would have been well over 100 Concordes by the mid 1980s and fares would have been lower than they were.

It only became a niche market because it ended up with just two airlines running pretty much the same routes.

My point is, we need to consider the possibility that diesel only railways, by default, carry the risk of another major oil crisis pushing their costs up through the roof.

Has Whitehall forgotten the $140 oil spike already?

Even without that, what of the Gulf of Mexico spill? If that results - as has been suggested - in a total ban on new close offshore drilling then a large chunk of the reserves of oil which are already factored into current supply predictions against predicted demand ( and by implication the oil price ) then straight away the price will start to rise again.




By the way... have you taken a close look at my avatar?;)
 
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