ELECTRIFICATION - Implications For South Wales

[Envoy]

I have heard it suggested that in order to get the greatest value out of the GW Electrification project, that the Portsmouth > Cardiff diesel service might terminate at Bristol ™. Whilst this would be a sad loss of a through service, I can see some merit in the idea as electric trains would link Cardiff and Bristol and thus reduce fumes in the Severn Tunnel as well as make greater use of the investment in wired routes.

It has also been suggested that an electric service could run from Swansea to Bath. This seems to be quite a sensible option as the more places that have direct links, the better. (Some compensation for any loss of the Cardiff > Portsmouth service). Such a service would also link most of the populated parts of south Wales with Bristol ™ and hopefully be timed to match CC services to/from the south-west.

Several MP's in England have today called for a Bristol ™ > Bath > Chippenham > Swindon > Oxford > Bedford service and presumably a continuation to Cambridge & Ipswich when the east-west route is re-built.
That being the case, then surely, it would be beneficial to have one through service linking Swansea > Cardiff > Bristol > Bath > Oxford > etc.? Of course, it would be possible for south Wales passengers to change at Swindon to a Bristol > Oxford > Bedford etc. service but it could well be more convenient to have the one through train. With one through train, passengers from Chippenham, for example, could directly reach Filton Abbey Wood.

Who would run such a service? GW? Wales? Chiltern? Cross Country?

If anyone has any comments about other services changing in south Wales as a result of electrification, feel free to chip in. What about a Swansea to Cardiff electric stopping service via Llantwit Major & Rhoose (for Cardiff Airport)? What about the Cardiff > Taunton/south-west diesel stopping services - should they continue?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29430204

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The DfT has never said anything about non-IEP electric services between Bristol and South Wales, except the vague "bidders are expected to maximise use of the new infrastructure" in the aborted GW 2012 ITT.
Welsh Valleys plans are in disarray with the funding dispute for electrification, so they can't make plans for electric Wales & Borders train services.
Franchise boundaries don't help, and more devolution is coming.
Currently the GW franchise runs everything through the Severn Tunnel (except the odd XC service), but there is no reason why a local service should not be a W&B or a joint W&B/GW service.
I think an intensive Bath-Bristol-Newport-Cardiff-Swansea service would be an excellent inter-urban route for the region, whoever operates it.
It could usefully be operated by more of the cascaded class 319 fleet (where else are they going to go?).
However, once you talk about extending this service eastwards to Swindon/Oxford etc you will need 125mph trains which probably rules it out.
But so far, not a sniff of such a service being specified.
Maybe the rumoured 5-year FGW direct award will cover this sort of service.
The W&B franchise competition comes up in 2017 so that might also trigger the specification of such a service.
There are also implications for the current West Wales-Cardiff-Marches-Holyhead/Manchester diesel services.
These would probably have to be split at Cardiff and Swansea.

 

[swt_passenger]

A service such as Portsmouth - Cardiff could always be split at Bristol temporarily. The obvious initial advantage would be using four car EMUs west of Bristol, and 2 x 158s in multiple to give a four car service all day east of Bristol.

At some future date when Southampton to Bath is electrified, that would be the time to join the service back together again. Might even coincide with better stock replacing both 158s and 319s (or whatever they use)...

 

[Envoy]

I can't see 319's going down very well linking cities such as Swansea, Cardiff, Newport, Bristol & Bath. Surely, they are no better (apart from being electric), than the 150's that are usually used on the Cardiff to Taunton / Plymouth run? This would surely imply that the Welsh are being treated as second class citizens within the UK? What is clearly needed is an order for new electric trains that can do 125mph for a Swansea to Bath service which could become one through service to Oxford, Bedford etc.

I do not think that it would be desirable to cease the current diesel services that operate between Manchester and west Wales via the Marches Line - even though they would be under wires between Newport & Swansea.

I wonder what will happen to London services that sometimes operate west of Swansea - especially on Sundays & summer Saturdays? Will these cease altogether or will they use the more expensive hybrid Hitachi trains for these services - perhaps in 5 coach formations?

 

[swt_passenger]

I only mentioned 319s because that can be substantiated in previous DfT announcements, it is just as likely to be 387s cascaded from Thameslink in a few years time.

But in the meantime no-one can be sure what sort of EMUs will run, or if they'll run at all, although if an EMU local service is operated I can't see it needing a new 125 mph unit.

IEP bi-modes will probably run through services beyond Swansea, it has been shown in a DfT timetable that was published for planning purposes, but until a future franchisee confirms it, again we cannot be 100% sure.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I can't see 319's going down very well linking cities such as Swansea, Cardiff, Newport, Bristol & Bath. Surely, they are no better (apart from being electric), than the 150's that are usually used on the Cardiff to Taunton / Plymouth run? This would surely imply that the Welsh are being treated as second class citizens within the UK? What is clearly needed is an order for new electric trains that can do 125mph for a Swansea to Bath service which could become one through service to Oxford, Bedford etc.

I do not think that it would be desirable to cease the current diesel services that operate between Manchester and west Wales via the Marches Line - even though they would be under wires between Newport & Swansea.

I think you've just torpedoed the business case for your proposals.
As the north west and (probably) Thames Valley are getting 319s, why should South Wales feel 2nd class?
They are getting IEPs for London services after all.
And there's no point in wiring Cardiff to Swansea if you are then going to run DMUs under them which are badly needed on routes without wires.

 

[Envoy]

As the north west and (probably) Thames Valley are getting 319s, why should South Wales feel 2nd class?

Well, if the 319's are so acceptable, why don't they just keep them on their present routes? A cascade of these trains implies that the citizens of one part of the UK are more deserving of modern stock than those in another area. How would Londoners feel if old trains used in Wales were dumped on them while the Welsh had new trains?

Yes, DMU's are badly needed on non-wired routes. That being the case, why do we have Virgin Voyagers running under wires all the way up the WCML?

 

[swt_passenger]

Well, if the 319's are so acceptable, why don't they just keep them on their present routes?

Because there are nothing like enough of them to operate the full Thameslink services, with automatic train operation through the Thameslink core.

But all this has been done to death before - the last Government decided that the business case for GW electrification as far as Oxford and Newbury relied on cascading the 319s there and also to the NW.

Take it up with the 2009 version of the DfT if you don't like it...

 

[HSTEd]

Well, if the 319's are so acceptable, why don't they just keep them on their present routes?

Because Class 319s are incapable of the performance and equipment fits required to operate the post Thameslink programme core route.
They won't take ATO for example.

They are easily capable of the duties found elsewhere on the network.

A cascade of these trains implies that the citizens of one part of the UK are more deserving of modern stock than those in another area.

So you are proposing to scrap the 319s to avoid the implication?
They can't stay where they are and apparently its wrong to move them somewhere else.

Have fun with your pacers and sprinters.

 

[anthony263]

Nothing wrong with the class 319's so long as they are looked after .
With a good refurbishment/overhaul these units could easily run for many years to come.

East Yorkshire had to make due with 2nd hand emu's with electrification for a couple of years before new units were ordered.

If you are moaninng about the 319's dont forget it has long been proposed that the valley lines upon electrification would receive displaced class 315's from Greater Anglia.

I had heard suggestions that the argument about funding the Valley Lines electrification has been sorted out somewhat and that we shuld expect an annoucement during the budget.

 

[Drsatan]

I hope that the 319s are given a comprehensive refurbishment, which goes beyond changing the seat covers and a deep clean. A refurbishment similar to Eversholt's 321 demonstrator unit would allow the 319s to operate to around 2030.

For those complaining about how 319s are unfit for use on Liverpool to Manchester services, please remember that 455s are five years older, yet when SWT's 455s were refurbished, their now defunct magazine emotion reported that many passengers assumed they were travelling on new trains.

In fact, the 321 demonstrator looks like a new train.

I am also assuming a turnback siding will be installed at Bathampton Junction to allow for any proposed Swansea-Bath service to turn around.

 

[SkinnyDave]

Cardiff to Portsmouth route is the most Lucrative route on the "West" side of FGW business and I would be very suprised if there was any reduction or major alteration to this service..
It was rumoured internally that the 180s may be used but I doubt it

 

[TheWalrus]

As the north west and (probably) Thames Valley are getting 319s, why should South Wales feel 2nd class?

Well, if the 319's are so acceptable, why don't they just keep them on their present routes? A cascade of these trains implies that the citizens of one part of the UK are more deserving of modern stock than those in another area. How would Londoners feel if old trains used in Wales were dumped on them while the Welsh had new trains?

Yes, DMU's are badly needed on non-wired routes. That being the case, why do we have Virgin Voyagers running under wires all the way up the WCML?

Good point, EMUs should have been ordered when the franchises commenced in 2007.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Good point, EMUs should have been ordered when the franchises commenced in 2007.

But they weren't.
The DfT doesn't want to replace or e-ify the Voyagers within the current franchise period.
Electrification only became fashionable in 2009.
There are significant numbers of older cascaded EMUs to be used up before new ones are ordered.
There is no money for anything else (except maybe refurbs).

 

[Class 170101]

Just make sure the air-con works when you seal the windows like the 321 demonstrator in the picture above.

 

[TheWalrus]

Good point, EMUs should have been ordered when the franchises commenced in 2007.

But they weren't.
The DfT doesn't want to replace or e-ify the Voyagers within the current franchise period.
Electrification only became fashionable in 2009.
There are significant numbers of older cascaded EMUs to be used up before new ones are ordered.
There is no money for anything else (except maybe refurbs).

I don't know why they wern't as the whole Birmingham-Scotland route is electrified and would easily free up DMUs for other uses without further electrification.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I don't know why they wern't as the whole Birmingham-Scotland route is electrified and would easily free up DMUs for other uses without further electrification.

As you know Virgin and First put in bids to buy new electrics which would have cascaded the Voyagers, but the contract went down the pan with the franchise fiasco.
It will have to wait for the long ICWC franchise to be let in 2017 before there is any change.
In the meantime Virgin find the Voyager fleet indispensable during the frequent WCML upgrade closures.

 

[NX]

Cardiff to Portsmouth route is the most Lucrative route on the "West" side of FGW business and I would be very suprised if there was any reduction or major alteration to this service..
It was rumoured internally that the 180s may be used but I doubt it

The Cardiff to Portsmouth (Mon-Sat) and the Cardiff to Brighton service on Sunday are very very busy from and to Cardiff, there is no way FGW would want to axe the through service, even if it was replaced with a overlapping Bsth-Swansea service.

The Brighton services especially the firet few off Cardiff on a Sunday morning are four cars and fully seated all the way to Southampton.

NX

 

[ainsworth74]

Have fun with your pacers and sprinters.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If the North West and/or South Wales are not happy with the EMUs they recieve then the North East will happily take the wires and the EMUs and you can have our Pacers and Sprinters instead.

 

[Greenback]

Fair point. I don't understand the angst about rolling stock myself. Electrification is a benefit and improvement no matter what EMU's come with it.

 

[59CosG95]

Fair point. I don't understand the angst about rolling stock myself. Electrification is a benefit and improvement no matter what EMU's come with it.

Well said.

 

[anthony263]

Fair point. I don't understand the angst about rolling stock myself. Electrification is a benefit and improvement no matter what EMU's come with it.

Good comment.

Wish we had a like button on this forum

The class 315's are still good workshorses and lets not forget that LUL still plan on operating the 1972 stock until at least 2030 so providing they are looked after there is not reason why the 315's cant operate until 2025-2030.

 

[thealexweb]

As you know Virgin and First put in bids to buy new electrics which would have cascaded the Voyagers, but the contract went down the pan with the franchise fiasco.
It will have to wait for the long ICWC franchise to be let in 2017 before there is any change.
In the meantime Virgin find the Voyager fleet indispensable during the frequent WCML upgrade closures.

Wasn't there talk of new build six car 390s being ordered? The delays have meant other solutions have had to be found. The current scenario where Virgin use nine car Pendos (or doubled up 221s) for most of their Edinburgh services would mean it would be difficult to go back to shorter but newer 390s now.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Wasn't there talk of new build six car 390s being ordered? The delays have meant other solutions have had to be found. The current scenario where Virgin use nine car Pendos (or doubled up 221s) for most of their Edinburgh services would mean it would be difficult to go back to shorter but newer 390s now.

The Euston-Birmingham-Scotland service does seem to be successful with long trains.
By 2017, there will be more capacity on the WCML (Stafford/Norton Bridge complete), but maybe HS2 will have started, giving capacity problems at Euston.
Alliance might have approval for services (with short Pendos).
All sorts of changes are in prospect by then (some of them discussed in the RUS), but I doubt any new trains can be delivered before 2018.

 

[anthony263]

Miss Hart has been on the welsh news this morning saying there has been good disccusions with the uk government about funding the electrification of the Cardiff Valley Lines.

Hopefully Network rail wil get the wires up to Swansea by 2018 especially since there will be some class 315's released by crossrail which will be avilable for local services between Cardiff &Swansea/Maesteg.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I have heard it suggested that in order to get the greatest value out of the GW Electrification project, that the Portsmouth > Cardiff diesel service might terminate at Bristol ™. Whilst this would be a sad loss of a through service, I can see some merit in the idea as electric trains would link Cardiff and Bristol and thus reduce fumes in the Severn Tunnel as well as make greater use of the investment in wired routes.

I understand the desire to split the Cardiff-Portsmouth service, but it would also be a big shame to lose it.

Several MP's in England have today called for a Bristol ™ > Bath > Chippenham > Swindon > Oxford > Bedford service and presumably a continuation to Cambridge & Ipswich when the east-west route is re-built.
That being the case, then surely, it would be beneficial to have one through service linking Swansea > Cardiff > Bristol > Bath > Oxford > etc.? Of course, it would be possible for south Wales passengers to change at Swindon to a Bristol > Oxford > Bedford etc. service but it could well be more convenient to have the one through train.

That would be a rather odd through service, I think Bristol - Bath - Oxford (etc.) sounds more sensible. It would remove Wales&Borders from the list of potential operators at any rate, and if it only goes as far as Oxford (and perhaps Bedford) fits fairly neatly into the GW franchise. If it was Wales to Cambridge the DfT would probably have difficulty deciding whether it should be given to GW or XC.

If anyone has any comments about other services changing in south Wales as a result of electrification, feel free to chip in. What about a Swansea to Cardiff electric stopping service via Llantwit Major & Rhoose (for Cardiff Airport)? What about the Cardiff > Taunton/south-west diesel stopping services - should they continue?

At the moment, I believe a number of diesel services are linked up across Bristol. Cardiff-Portsmouth, Malvern/Worcester-Weymouth and Cardiff - Taunton. I would like the Cardiff-Portsmouth to stay, and the services into Bristol from Weymouth, Malvern/Worcester and Taunton would need to remain DMU operated. I therefore suggest the Malvern-Worcester services run through to Taunton and the Weymouth trains originate at Bristol. That leaves the Cardiff-Bristol leg of the current Taunton service to be turned into an electric Swansea-Bristol service.

a joint W&B/GW service.

I was thinking along those lines with the Cardiff-Portsmouth service which, presuming it says as 158s without much electrification between Bath and Southampton, I'd like to see extended to Carmarthen/Milford Haven (and, in the longer term, from Carmarthen along a new line to Aberystwyth).

However, once you talk about extending this service eastwards to Swindon/Oxford etc you will need 125mph trains which probably rules it out.

Over on the Coffee Shop forum they are suggesting that the Bristol-Oxford service could call at a number of new stations. In that case, would a 125mph EMU spend much time at top speed anyway? A 100/110mph EMU geared more for acceleration than top speed might be more appropriate for the service than a 125/140mph unit.

There are also implications for the current West Wales-Cardiff-Marches-Holyhead/Manchester diesel services.
These would probably have to be split at Cardiff and Swansea.

I do not think that it would be desirable to cease the current diesel services that operate between Manchester and west Wales via the Marches Line - even though they would be under wires between Newport & Swansea.

I don't think there is much benifit to the Manchester-Swansea-Carmarthen-Milford Haven services. There may be some operational benifit, but the indirect route between Carmarthen and Cardiff means the service is not particularly useful and Carmarthen to Manchester is even more indirect. Also, the much lower population density is probably a factor in the fact such short trains (2 or 3 coaches) are used between the large cities of Swansea, Cardiff and Manchester.

In my view, the minimum service pattern for the main lines west of Cardiff in the new GW/W&B franchises should be:

• 1tph Swansea - Paddington (electric 9-car IEPs, without the 5-car ones currently expected)
• 1tph Swansea - Bristol (EMU replacement for Cardiff-Taunton service)
• 1tph Swansea - Cardiff all stops (Swanline EMU)
• 1tph Swansea - Carmarthen all stops
• 1tph Swansea - Carmarthen (not calling at Kidwelly and Ferryside)
• 3 per day each way Carmarthen - Cardiff calling at Llanelli and Port Talbot only (plus either Bridgend OR a new station at Morriston, with a target journey time of 75mins end-to-end) (it would be this service that would work to/from Portsmouth)

Line capacity permitting, I would ideally like to add the following to the above list, in order of priority:

1. Increase frequency of 75min Carmarthen-Cardiff service to 0.5tph
2. Increase frequency of 75min Carmarthen-Cardiff service to 1tph
3. 1tph Manchester - Swansea, formed of at least 5 coaches with the same calling pattern through south Wales as the London trains

I wonder what will happen to London services that sometimes operate west of Swansea - especially on Sundays & summer Saturdays? Will these cease altogether or will they use the more expensive hybrid Hitachi trains for these services - perhaps in 5 coach formations?

IEP bi-modes will probably run through services beyond Swansea, it has been shown in a DfT timetable that was published for planning purposes, but until a future franchisee confirms it, again we cannot be 100% sure.

Before the WCML franchise collapse, the franchise specification that was put out for Great Western included the same requirements for services west of Swansea as the current franchise, namely:

• One train per day PAD to Carmarthen
• One train per day Carmarthen to PAD
• One train per day (summer SAT only) Paddington to Pembroke Dock
• One train per day (summer SAT only) Swansea to Pembroke Dock
• Two trains per day (summer SAT only) Pembroke Dock to Paddington

The IEP order was based on an asumption that the year-round Carmarthen-PAD services would be worked by a 5-car bi-mode IEP unit. There are no plans for IEP bi-mode units to work any services west of Carmarthen or upgrade the infrustructure west of CMN to accept them, so it is unclear how the requirement for the summer SAT services would be met. I have a letter from DfT minister Simon Burns MP which states, among other things, that:

The rolling stock choice for the services to Devon and Cornwall, and Pembroke Dock is a matter the winner of the Great Western Franchise that will commence in July 2016

As you know Virgin and First put in bids to buy new electrics which would have cascaded the Voyagers, but the contract went down the pan with the franchise fiasco.

Read somewhere that it was VT's bid that would have cascaded the Voyagers. First proposed a few new electrics, but not enough to replace the Voyagers.

Electrification is a benefit and improvement no matter what EMU's come with it.

Generally, I agree with you. I'm not sure I'd like to do Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury on one of the electric classes which are similar to 150s though. Personally, I think suitability for the service is more important than age of stock, which is why I think the Cambrian lines and Cardiff-Portsmouth are better off with 158s than new Turbostars (although both could use more 158s).

 

[Parallel]

Cardiff to Portsmouth route is the most Lucrative route on the "West" side of FGW business and I would be very suprised if there was any reduction or major alteration to this service..
It was rumoured internally that the 180s may be used but I doubt it

Indeed, I agree - I use part of this line daily and one of the reasons for why it is so popular is that it is very convenient. There are a lot of students who go to UWE near Filton Abbey Wood who would be inconvenienced to change at Temple Meads. A lot of the longer seat reservations I see are from Cardiff to Southampton but there is a general trickle of passengers travelling from each station to each station too.

Also, remove the Cardiff service from stations south of Bath, most of the services from those medium sized stations would just terminate at Temple Meads, apart from the odd Great Malvern/Gloucester service. Also, Temple Meads is busy enough as it is (especially in the peaks). I think it would really harm the line if the services was split, especially considering how popular it is at the moment and how full the trains are that operate it throughout the day. Also going by that, the Taunton service would also have to be split with wires not set to even get to Weston Super Mare.

I can't see Bathampton Junction - Southampton being electrified anytime soon to be honest. Bristol - Westbury is made up of too many different services including Weymouths, Great Malverns and Gloucesters. One service per hour using the wires won't be cost effective and removing stations beyond Westbury for the Heart Of Wessex services would be catastrophic for the line IMO.

Perhaps the Bath - Swansea service should exist, but in addition to the current Cardiff services. Then you have 3 trains per hour BTM - CDF. More capacity is also needed on the Cardiff - Portsmouth trains too.

 

[47802]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If the North West and/or South Wales are not happy with the EMUs they recieve then the North East will happily take the wires and the EMUs and you can have our Pacers and Sprinters instead.

319's are fine however I would like to see the statements about a proper refurb that were made when the scheme was originally announced kept.

A 321 style refurb would be fine, but the cynic's like myself are sceptical that come the next franchise for Northern we will in fact get little more than is currently promised for the initial batch of 319's to Northern

Re terminating Cardiff Portsmouth at Bristol, I guess if we want to free up the max number of Diesel units and maximise Electric operation, options like this will need to be considered, maybe a compromise of a 2 hourly or peak hours only extension to Cardiff could be considered.

 

[Envoy]

Many thanks to all those who have made contributions to my post thus far.
Rhydgaled: some interesting ideas - especially the one about using the Swansea District Line with a new station being inserted at Morriston (presumably with a Park & Ride by the M4). I also note that a new 'village' is being built at Llandarcy & that this line actually skirts the site. I wonder if anybody has had the sense to set aside land for a new station to serve this community?

If only 5 coach IEP's are going to be used between Cardiff & Swansea, then surely other services will be needed to boost the number of seats between these two cities? If south Wales to London trains are no longer going to stop at Bristol Parkway, then connections to the Midlands & north-east will need to be strengthened. (The 2 or 3 coach hourly Cardiff > Nottingham service would be under increased pressure). Though I prefer the current 170's to the Voyagers, it surely would be preferable to have displaced Voyagers from other routes put on this service or even providing direct trains to Newcastle from Cardiff or even Swansea?

Remember the so called 'Operation Princess' by Virgin? They ordered all these hideous Voyagers and ended up with over-crowding. It just goes to show that if you improve services/bring in new trains, that all pre-planning can go haywire. The same thing could happen all over again with the Great Western Electrification. What will be needed is to get things up and running but to be relatively quickly able to respond to any problems that arise.

 

[Rhydgaled]

If only 5 coach IEP's are going to be used between Cardiff & Swansea, then surely other services will be needed to boost the number of seats between these two cities? If south Wales to London trains are no longer going to stop at Bristol Parkway, then connections to the Midlands & north-east will need to be strengthened.

We don't actually know where on the electrified network the 5-car IEPs will be used, but the numbers of 5-car and 9-car ordered are based on a draft timetable DfT has drawn up. This DfT draft timetable shows 31 trains per day (in each direction) between PAD and CDF. About a third of those, including the service into Cardiff from Carmarthen/Swansea at 08:11, are shown as 5-car units. In the westbound direction, three trains in a row from Paddington to Cardiff/Swansea are shown as 5-car twice a day, with another two in a row later in the day. Assuming the same number of services run today, with IC125s with 546 seats, I make it over 1,000 fewer seats per day.

The Swansea services are shown as non-stop Newport to Reading, but the PAD-CDF workings also call at Bristol Parkway, Swindon and Didcot.