Election Result and Southern

[Olaf]

Sadiq Khan must learn to be shameless like his predecessors Livingstone and Johnson and revisit the subject of TfL taking over at least some Southern services. When I say shameless, I mean in the sense of seeking the chink (gaping hole, more like it) in the armour and getting in there with a flashing rapier, or whatever analogy. Never a better moment - don't delay, Sadiq, let's see what you're made of.

Given that Brighton and some other south coast constituencies turned left, the Conservatives might take a stand-point along the lines of "stew in it".

 

[Olaf]

Chris Grayling staying as Transport Sec, according to the BBC.
Plus ça change...

Yes, I got that wrong.

That I expect means continued emphasis on the Digital Railway to improve productivity and performance, plus his plans to deal with the DOO issues (but he has not played his cards on that yet).

 

[Olaf]

Transport may not be the main issue in elections but it's a factor in voting. Screwing over Southeastern passengers in London and NW Kent by blocking a TfL takeover and offering very little in the consultation did not help with votes and it won't help in future in seats like Eltham.

Same goes for Southern passengers. May seems like she doesn't understand why she lost in cities.

Blocking the transfer of services to TfL prevents commuters from intensified activism on the part of unions if the transfers had gone ahead.

The party fully understands the voting patterns - they see all the reports like everyone else, and transport was not high on the list.

 

[Olaf]

Except those of us just using Southern outside London worry a lot about TfL taking over London part leaving even less money available for the rest of the Southern services. Lack of cash within a Franchise that basically pays premiums to the government is why it is going wrong (i.e. Hidden taxation on rail users).

.

Spot-on.

 

[Olaf]

You would have to do some fuller research but having quick look through the results for the constituencies along the BML for instance whilst there was in England a gain of 4.6% for the Conservatives and 10.2% for Labour. In these constituencies the Tory vote remained static or increased marginally 1 or 2 % whilst Labour typically registered plus 10%.

Like I say fuller research is needed but it would appear that along the BML the national trend of an increase in Tory votes was bucked.

The increased turn-out would be a factor no doubt which would point towards issues around housing and student loans being high on the priories as per elsewhere, but as you said more details required.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Yes, I got that wrong.

That I expect means continued emphasis on the Digital Railway to improve productivity and performance, plus his plans to deal with the DOO issues (but he has not played his cards on that yet).

How long he gets to play that tune is another matter given the lack of majority and the seemingly less than popular DUP link up.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The increased turn-out would be a factor no doubt which would point towards issues around housing and student loans being high on the priories as per elsewhere, but as you said more details required.

Returning UKIP voters who want Brexit were a strong factor elsewhere in England in boosting the Tory vote yet this didn't happen here suggesting a local factor at play. The more populous Brighton reflected a near universal trend in urban areas moving away from voting Tory except for the South Hampshire conurbations.

A light pollution map of UK overlaid over the coloured constituency map makes interesting reading.

 

[infobleep]

Blocking the transfer of services to TfL prevents commuters from intensified activism on the part of unions if the transfers had gone ahead.

The party fully understands the voting patterns - they see all the reports like everyone else, and transport was not high on the list.

They clearly don't understand voting patterns. I can't believe they would hold an election so they could end up with less MPs in parliament. Unless they thought less MPs would help them in the Britexit process.....

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[rebmcr]

Given that Brighton and some other south coast constituencies turned left, the Conservatives might take a stand-point along the lines of "stew in it".

Brighton And Hove has been Green for a while already...

 

[physics34]

Brighton And Hove has been Green for a while already...

Brighton Kemptown changed hands

 

[northwichcat]

They clearly don't understand voting patterns. I can't believe they would hold an election so they could end up with less MPs in parliament. Unless they thought less MPs would help them in the Britexit process.....

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I'm sure the Conservatives understand how the voting system works. However, May called an election based on opinion polls showing the Conservatives were more popular than they were in 2015 fully aware that the polls regularly change and can get it wrong - as has happened before.

 

[ar10642]

There were substantial anti-government swings in a number of relevant constituencies e.g. Hove. They also lost Eastbourne to the Lib Dems.

Lewes and Hastings very marginal too. I can see them losing those next time round.

 

[WatcherZero]

If the campaign to punish tories for Southern did have a meaningful result you would have expected to see it most strongly in Graylings own constituency, however his votes went up.

 

[northwichcat]

If the campaign to punish tories for Southern did have a meaningful result you would have expected to see it most strongly in Graylings own constituency, however his votes went up.

The RMT keep wanting to publicly blame the 'greedy foreign' private companies so why would voters think to specifically blame the Transport Secretary?

 

[Gareth Marston]

The RMT keep wanting to publicly blame the 'greedy foreign' private companies so why would voters think to specifically blame the Transport Secretary?

Joe Public's understanding that the number of carriages on their train and the fare they've been paying are largely been dictated by Whitehall is poor the TOC's are there tp take the blame for a fee!

 

[Olaf]

How long he gets to play that tune is another matter given the lack of majority and the seemingly less than popular DUP link up.

Yes, but then the initiative is being presented and driven by the industry; if a future DfT Minister proposed an alternative, that would disrupt matters and not address the customer issues. DOO is being parked for now.

 

[Olaf]

Returning UKIP voters who want Brexit were a strong factor elsewhere in England in boosting the Tory vote yet this didn't happen here suggesting a local factor at play. The more populous Brighton reflected a near universal trend in urban areas moving away from voting Tory except for the South Hampshire conurbations.

A light pollution map of UK overlaid over the coloured constituency map makes interesting reading.

I think we are agreed on that.

 

[Olaf]

They clearly don't understand voting patterns. I can't believe they would hold an election so they could end up with less MPs in parliament. Unless they thought less MPs would help them in the Britexit process.....

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The campaign failed due to it's mismanagement and not having a decent, broad message; - it failed mid-may through but at the out-set it was theirs to loose. Yes it was ill-judged, but they also knew they were taking a risk.

The Conservatives have very efficient party machine, what went wrong happened at the top. That failure is no reflection on its competence elsewhere.

 

[Olaf]

Brighton And Hove has been Green for a while already...

Yes I know; I did not put a time-scale on it.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think we are agreed on that.

Metropolitan England and Wales votes for a party that wants rail nationalisation, non metropolitan England for a party that doesn't.

 

[rebmcr]

Yes I know; I did not put a time-scale on it.

This thread is about the recent election result and Southern -- both of which post-date the Green candidate...

 

[Olaf]

If you want to believe that you are welcome, but the same gullible voters also fell for all the other false promises and sweetmeats.

Transport is well down the list on the majority of voters list of priorities, and the outcome is unlikely to make much impact apart from, as already evident, the impact on spending for big projects. The DOO question is parked for now, and the proposals for no-strike law is postponed but it is still there and no doubt which will be well supported by commuters.