Election Countdown

[Senex]

How many of us here have actually had a canvasser from any party call in the course of this election campaign? None here (again). We've had three circulars from the Labour candidate, with nothing about Corbyn, and two letters from Theresa May with very little about the local candidate. Then there was one circular from the Tory candidate himself, one from the LibDems, and one from the Greens to say why they were not standing.

It seems to have been an odd campaign, with each of the two candidates for PM talking mainly (exclusively in the case of May?) to their own supporters. I find it's been very hard to have any sense of involvement at all. What do others think?

 

[backontrack]

First poll of the thread:

What do you think the result of this election will be?

Vote here. No sign-up is required.

 

[takno]

How many of us here have actually had a canvasser from any party call in the course of this election campaign? None here (again). We've had three circulars from the Labour candidate, with nothing about Corbyn, and two letters from Theresa May with very little about the local candidate. Then there was one circular from the Tory candidate himself, one from the LibDems, and one from the Greens to say why they were not standing.

It seems to have been an odd campaign, with each of the two candidates for PM talking mainly (exclusively in the case of May?) to their own supporters. I find it's been very hard to have any sense of involvement at all. What do others think?

We've had a few leaflets through from SNP, Labour and slightly fewer from LibDems and Tories. The Tory ones concentrated on Ruth Davidson and independence, with a fantastic graph "proving" that only the Tories could beat the SNP here even though it's currently a Labour seat. I don't think any of them gave more than a passing mention to Westminster, which is logical in Scotland because all the big issues in the national campaigns have been devolved matters. The main national issue which affects us up here is Brexit, and it seems like nobody wants to talk about that at all.

The Scotland-specific polls have seen the small lead that the Tories had over Labour up here wiped out completely, and the SNP are down significantly on 2015. There is also a lack of historical basis for judging local swingsm and question marks about how much people really care about the second indy referendum that's featured at such length in all campaigns. It's going to be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Busaholic]

On the question of tactical voting, in my constituency three recognised parties that stood here in the last election have not fielded candidates, namely UKIP, the Green Party and MK, the Cornish nationalist party. The first named has stood aside so that (they believe) the Brexit-supporting former MP can be re-elected for the Tories, the other two to give the LibDem a chance to reclaim the seat he lost after many years in 2015. If only Labour withdrew their no-hoper then victory would probably be assured for the LibDem candidate, but then that is democracy.

 

[GusB]

No canvassers so far, but I did get a personally addressed card from the Conservatives. Bright yellow in colour, it went along the lines of:
SNP Bad
SNP Bad
etc...

I wouldn't mind if they actually put forward their own policies, but it was pure negative campaigning.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

How many of us here have actually had a canvasser from any party call in the course of this election campaign?

Does being a canvasser count? I must've knocked on a few hundred doors during the campaign, with a few more to go tomorrow.

But realistically, most constituencies are going to have something like 30-40 thousand doors to knock on, and outside key marginal seats (for which volunteers will tend to come in from outside) I doubt there are many places where local parties would have more than 20-30 volunteers with the time to go out knocking on doors regularly. The maths of it says you're not going to get more than a small proportion of people canvassed during a short election campaign.

 

[Pinza-C55]

How many of us here have actually had a canvasser from any party call in the course of this election campaign? None here (again). We've had three circulars from the Labour candidate, with nothing about Corbyn, and two letters from Theresa May with very little about the local candidate. Then there was one circular from the Tory candidate himself, one from the LibDems, and one from the Greens to say why they were not standing.

It seems to have been an odd campaign, with each of the two candidates for PM talking mainly (exclusively in the case of May?) to their own supporters. I find it's been very hard to have any sense of involvement at all. What do others think?

Although I am at the same end of the political spectrum (broadly) as Corbyn he has a major problem in that all but 10 of his MPs are Blairite and diametrically opposed to some of his policies. I am fairly sure that if Labour wins they will try to oust him.

 

[takno]

Although I am at the same end of the political spectrum (broadly) as Corbyn he has a major problem in that all but 10 of his MPs are Blairite and diametrically opposed to some of his policies. I am fairly sure that if Labour wins they will try to oust him.

Opposed to Corbyn isn't the same thing as Blairite. Most of them have issues with his managerial and leadership style, rather than policies particularly. Some of policies in the manifesto are actually closer to their politics than Corbyn's.

That said it's so close to the wire now I'm looking forward watching the results roll in Thursday and then a bit of peace from Friday!

 

[me123]

No canvassers so far, but I did get a personally addressed card from the Conservatives. Bright yellow in colour, it went along the lines of:
SNP Bad
SNP Bad
etc...

I wouldn't mind if they actually put forward their own policies, but it was pure negative campaigning.

I've been watching the Scottish side of the election from down here in Wales, and as far as I can see the Conservatives have been campaigning solely on the fact that they aren't the SNP. They're doing essentially the same down here - "we're not Jeremy Corbyn".

Frankly, the quality of the campaigning has hit yet another new low, and that's probably true of all parties. I've finally had an election communication from Labour that solely tells me that the candidate came in second place last time around - there's no actual campaign there! The Lib Dems clearly misunderstood the point of bilingual campaigning in Wales - everyone else translated their leaflet from English to Welsh (maybe the other way around) so that you could read it in either language. The Lib Dems clearly wrote their policies in Welsh and the section about their candidate in English, so the majority of people who received a leaflet in this constituency won't know their policies.

I was hoping to make this the first election that I didn't stay up for, but I'm actually doing a night shift so I will be awake all night. Hopefully I won't have any clue what's going on. As for voting... well I'm not sure any of them have actually done enough to earn my vote. My vote is wasted anyway, since I can't stomach a vote for Labour and would never vote for the Tories. It's whether I waste it on Plaid (who are never going to win here, but at least have the policy of opposing the Conservative's plan to repatriate devolved powers to Westminster) or spoil my ballot.

 

[GusB]

I've been watching the Scottish side of the election from down here in Wales, and as far as I can see the Conservatives have been campaigning solely on the fact that they aren't the SNP. They're doing essentially the same down here - "we're not Jeremy Corbyn".

Frankly, the quality of the campaigning has hit yet another new low, and that's probably true of all parties. I've finally had an election communication from Labour that solely tells me that the candidate came in second place last time around - there's no actual campaign there! The Lib Dems clearly misunderstood the point of bilingual campaigning in Wales - everyone else translated their leaflet from English to Welsh (maybe the other way around) so that you could read it in either language. The Lib Dems clearly wrote their policies in Welsh and the section about their candidate in English, so the majority of people who received a leaflet in this constituency won't know their policies.

I was hoping to make this the first election that I didn't stay up for, but I'm actually doing a night shift so I will be awake all night. Hopefully I won't have any clue what's going on. As for voting... well I'm not sure any of them have actually done enough to earn my vote. My vote is wasted anyway, since I can't stomach a vote for Labour and would never vote for the Tories. It's whether I waste it on Plaid (who are never going to win here, but at least have the policy of opposing the Conservative's plan to repatriate devolved powers to Westminster) or spoil my ballot.

I will be tactically voting SNP again this time around. The Tories are fighting this seat hard and they'll need a fairly big swing to take the seat, but Brexit is a big issue here, so nothing can be taken for granted. I live in a former fishing village where many people see Europe as being responsible for the demise of their industry.

Having said that, I only need to walk round the corner to see several Saltires flying - the same ones that flew at half-mast the day after IndyRef, so it remains to be seen.

I'm a bit disappointed that the Greens aren't contesting this time around, to be honest, but funding is a bit of a problem, especially so soon after the council elections.

If I genuinely didn't believe in any of the candidates on the ballot paper, I'd spoil it, but Angus Robertson has done fairly well so far. His voting record is good, and on the couple of occasions where I've felt it necessary to write to him, I've always had a favourable response. Party politics aside, he's a decent hard-working constituency MP.

 

[SteveP29]

I wouldn't mind if they actually put forward their own policies, but it was pure negative campaigning.

That's all I've noticed nationally from the tories, its all about how bad the alternatives are, not one mention of their own policies, except the ones that have been brought to their attention as massive vote losers, for which they've done a swift u-turn within days.

The other parties seem to be saying, we will do this, we would like to do this, we will stop this, we want to do this, the tories just say, don't vote for them, they'll do this or don't vote for him, you can't trust him

 

[Tetchytyke]

That's all I've noticed nationally from the tories, its all about how bad the alternatives are, not one mention of their own policies

It's been like that ever since they appointed Crosby as their campaign leader. It was exactly the same in 2010 and in 2015.

The depressing thing is that it works. They know that if you fling enough muck, it sticks. And they know that appealing to someone's base emotion of fear is more effective than appealing to their positive emotions. They also know that if you promise nothing you can't be accused of failing to deliver.

It's poisonous but it is effective. We saw that in America with Trump and we saw it with Brexit. It's much easier to be the chimpanzee flinging its own faeces than the zookeeper promising to clean up after it.

 

[Tetchytyke]

there will be a lot of tactical voting so that could through the exit poll off a bit

They focus the exit polls on the marginals anyway, so if people respond truthfully then the exit polls should be accurate. I think it will be harder to apply a uniform swing to pre-election polls than in previous years. It'll be interesting to see which of the polling companies is closest to the truth this year.

 

[backontrack]

Diane Abbott has been stood down by Corbyn due to her 'ill health'. Apparently she's coming to terms with a long-term condition.

I don't like Diane Abbott as an MP. But some things are much more important than politics. I wish her all the best.

 

[backontrack]

So we have little under one and three-quarter hours to go until the general election.

This will be the first GE that I watch from the start. I'm staying up and coffee-ing this one out. Here we go...

 

[backontrack]

Here's the first poll of the night.

Which seat will declare first?

Vote here: http://doodle.com/poll/5vbqrvmzqdk32nfn

Please only vote for one seat. Thank you.

 

[fowler9]

I just hope everyone goes out and votes. I get that some people feel that they aren't interested in politics but they really need to be engaged with. It affects everything that happens in your life. You can see from the stats from the last general election that if everyone who didn't vote voted for one of the loosing parties they could have won.

 

[AlterEgo]

Anyone want to suggest which seat will be won by the narrowest majority? I've a cousin in Fermanagh and South Tyrone which was won by just four votes in 2010...

 

[Busaholic]

Anyone want to suggest which seat will be won by the narrowest majority? I've a cousin in Fermanagh and South Tyrone which was won by just four votes in 2010...

I'd personally say guessing the lottery winning numbers would be no more difficult, although I suppose you'd have a 1 in 650 chance. I'm going with Orkney and Shetland, with St Ives a close second.

 

[backontrack]

So, we want you to get involved.

Are you watching the election? Where are you watching it? What is your plan for tonight? Have you got beer, pizza, or cake? Who are you backing? Which contests especially interest you?

There are 650 battles going on throughout the country tonight (649 discounting the Buckingham seat of Speaker John Bercow). That means lots of different scenarios across the UK. We will aim to keep you posted throughout the night.

Theresa May's aims are easy to figure out. She wants as big a majority as possible. But Labour resilience in the polls may make that difficult. Swindon North should be the first seat to return a Conservative MP - she's in trouble if it swings away from her.

Jeremy Corbyn obviously wants Labour to do well. But there could be losses in Northern industrial areas for him to contend with. This election is make-or-break for Labour, and they'll need to retain and win seats like Halifax and Nuneaton to have a good night.

Nicola Sturgeon's SNP are under threat from the Scottish Conservatives. She's going to have to hope for a lot of her core vote to return if she's going to retain Grampian seats like Moray, Roxburgh and Aberdeenshire West.

Tim Farron won't make a major comeback for the Liberal Democrats, but he can hope to quietly improve on their 2015 performance by taking the Remain vote in Tory seats like Berwick.

Leanne Wood's Plaid Cymru want to 'put Wales on the map'. But they stand to lose voters to Labour in some areas. They'll hope for a good pro-Remain vote, despite Wales voting to leave the EU.

Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley will want the Greens to possibly take Bristol West, as well as possibly Clacton or Bethnal Green & Bow. We shall see how that pans out; any Green gain is an interesting proposition, as it will mean that climate change reaches the forefront (hopefully).

And then, in a class of their own, there is UKIP.

They'll be lucky to win any seat this time.

 

[backontrack]

Don't forget that there's an election in Northern Ireland as well. The DUP and UUP will by directly up against each other in many areas, with voters being forced to decide behind the two - whilst Sinn Féin, buoyed by a recent improvement at the last Stormont election, the SDLP and Alliance will be looking to improve their performances. So will UKIP, who also stand candidates in Northern Ireland.

 

[backontrack]

One rule for tonight: if someone else can take over the running of this thread while I'm in the shower when the exit poll comes out, that'd be great. I kinda want it to be a surprise.