Election Countdown

[backontrack]

We always have a thread when the election happens - live from the results night onwards.

I thought it would be worth setting this up early so that we can get some early discussion on media coverage, polling and when we actually go out to vote. On the day I can edit the thread title to reflect the change.

I'd rather keep outwardly political statements the preserve of the other threads, at least until 10pm on election day. This thread is designed to follow the election race as things happen. I'll be providing polls on external sites too.

Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are up against a Question Time audience and Nick Robinson tonight.

LINKS:
YouGov's seat-by-seat estimates: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
What the current polls could mean for the makeup of government: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election

 

[backontrack]

Farron is asked questions about his faith. He states his support for gay marriage, dodging another question on abortion.

He defends his campaign for another referendum well, but has come under fire from the audience's SNP supporters who ask him why he doesn't support Indyref2 for the same reasons.

 

[backontrack]

Farron's finished now. Up steps Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the SNP.

 

[backontrack]

Sturgeon is asked what politicians can do to 'make our streets safe again'.

Sturgeon says that this question is uppermost in many people's minds. She warns against kneejerk solutions, saying that we must work in partnership with the Islamic community in order to root out jihadists.

Like Corbyn, she also places an emphasis on investing in our police forces and intelligence. Nick Robinson quizzes her on the powers the police and security services have. Sturgeon lists some of these abilities, and replies that a common consensus is necessary.

 

[backontrack]

Robinson asks Sturgeon why should would vote against new surveillance proposals in Westminster.

Sturgeon brings up the Snooper's Charter in response.

Independence next.

 

[backontrack]

Decisions should be made "by us, not for us" says Sturgeon.

Now she's asked about the responsibilities of Holyrood, and about her sinking approval ratings. But before she can answer, another man urges Sturgeon to push forward with another independence referendum.

In response to the approval ratings question, Sturgeon says that she expects to win the election healthily, though, she takes "nothing for granted". She other the second question too - but I was typing at the time so couldn't take it in.

"Circumstances change', says Sturgeon. She appeals for a chance for Scotland to vote once they know the full implications of Brexit. Robinson attacks her on this.

 

[backontrack]

Sturgeon's tanking now. She's laughed at for saying that it's wrong for a politician to "dictate to a country what's right for them".

Interestingly, the question she was answering about 'once-in-a-generation' votes was asked by an English guy.

 

[backontrack]

Not going well for Sturgeon.

A Welsh teacher is very angry that Sturgeon refers to Scotland as a 'country'. Dear oh dear. Back to the normal questions, please...

 

[backontrack]

Sturgeon is asked about the UK trade implications of a second referendum.

She replies that Scotland shouldn't withdraw from trading with the world's largest single market. She laughs at the suggestion that a Yes vote would mean an end to British-Scottish trade.

 

[backontrack]

The English Andrew Couch asks whether Sturgeon should resign over Scotland's education system.

She says that it would be wrong for her to introduce tuition fees. She went to university free.

Robinson says that Scotland's reading and maths levels are at an all-time low. His figures are two years old.

Sturgeon implores voters to elect SNP MPs for Westminster to oppose Conservative cuts.

 

[backontrack]

So far, this has gone like a car crash for Sturgeon. But it seems to be predominantly English questioners for her (Farron had a lot of Scots asking him questions).

£27,000 of debt is the amount of debt English students have to pay, says Sturgeon. She gets a large round of applause.

 

[gazthomas]

Why does Sturgeon get more than 7% of air time? She's good at maximising air time!

 

[backontrack]

Sturgeon stresses the important of being held to account on her manifesto.

An "outraged" student argues that she wouldn't have got to go to university without there being no tuition fees. She is the first generation in her family to get a university education. She gets applause.

 

[backontrack]

Why does Sturgeon get more than 7% of air time? She's good at maximising air time!

Because I was still setting up the thread when Farron was talking. Ahem.

Slivers of hope here for her - more like crumbs of comfort. She's had a hard time so far in this interview.

 

[backontrack]

Anyone else think Sturgeon should be debating Davidson, Dugdale, Rennie, Harvie and Coburn instead?

 

[backontrack]

Would the SNP join a coalition to stop the Tories from winning?

Yes, says Sturgeon. She supports a "progressive alliance" that supports more public investment and opposes the cuts.

The question goes back to the referendum. Obviously.

 

[backontrack]

Last question:

Would Sturgeon barter away Scottish fishermen's resources to join the Single Market or the EU?

Answer: no. The Tories's fisheries policies are attacked.

That concludes the QT special.

 

[backontrack]

Robinson interrupted both of them a lot. I think Sturgeon improved towards the end; Farron started off well, but tailed off.

 

[takno]

Anyone else think Sturgeon should be debating Davidson, Dugdale, Rennie, Harvie and Coburn instead?

There was a separate Scottish leaders debate on up here.

 

[Y961 XBU]

Websites worth bookmarking:

Website that looks at the recent polls like an exit poll
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election

Yougov's seat by seat prediction thats updated daily
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

 

[Howardh]

is there a list of when each result was declared in 2015? Thinking of having a nod and then waking up when the bulk are announced.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm not aware of any list, but generally speaking, from my memory of previous elections, only a very small number will be declared before midnight, and you may then get a few dozen before 1am. After 1am is when it starts to significantly pick up, and by 2am they'll be starting to come in almost continuously. By 4am, most seats will have been announced. By that point, if one party wins very decisively, they might even already have passed the victory threshold of 325-ish MPs. After 4am it tends to die down, and typically we'll mostly be waiting for seats that have had recounts. I'm not sure if there are any seats that are delaying their counts until Friday morning - I seem to recall in the past there have usually been a few. If there are, those seats will gradually come through during the day on Friday.

If you want to wake up to see the bulk of them being announced, I'd aim to wake up between 1am and 1:30am.

 

[Barn]

is there a list of when each result was declared in 2015? Thinking of having a nod and then waking up when the bulk are announced.

Make sure you don't go to sleep too early and miss the exit poll at a few minutes past ten.

 

[greatkingrat]

Here is a list of the declaration times from 2015.

Although as there are no local elections this time, it is likely that most seats will be declaring earlier than they did in 2015.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Robinson says that Scotland's reading and maths levels are at an all-time low. His figures are two years old.

Nick Robinson really was an absolute joke last night. I know he's a Tory, he was chair of the Oxford University Tories, but he doesn't even pretend to be impartial anymore. At least Robert Peston tries to be impartial.

 

[Howardh]

Thanks for the info on declaration times. What's St. Ives's excuse???

Think 1 - 3am is enough to know if the Whigs have made it again.

 

[Busaholic]

Thanks for the info on declaration times. What's St. Ives's excuse???

Think 1 - 3am is enough to know if the Whigs have made it again.

The reason for St. Ives's apparent tardiness is that the constituency includes the Isles of Scilly, from where the polling boxes are only dispatched by air the following morning, assuming fog or strong winds don't stop that happening, which they would have done yesterday for instance, The demise of the helicopter service has only added to the delay. A recount (Tories and LibDems are level in the latest surveys) would only add to the delay!

Counting of votes can't begin to happen before all the boxes are present, I understand.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Make sure you don't go to sleep too early and miss the exit poll at a few minutes past ten.

I concur. It does tend to be pretty accurate.

 

[Y961 XBU]

I concur. It does tend to be pretty accurate.

It has been just about spot on for the last 2 elections, however this year there will be a lot of tactical voting so that could through the exit poll off a bit

 

[backontrack]

I suppose the old debate about tactical voting could be finished for good this election.