Economic Case for the Far North Line

[Indigo Soup]

Cost conscious Scottish pensioners who can travel free on the bus. Speed based improvements will not grow this group even if the journey time becomes less than the bus. A change to the concession card arrangement could grow ridership but wouldn't grow revenue and indeed would probably harm revenue.

I'm surprised that the Scottish Government didn't require the concession card to be accepted on rail services as part of the ScotRail franchise agreement.

 

[najaB]

I'm surprised that the Scottish Government didn't require the concession card to be accepted on rail services as part of the ScotRail franchise agreement.

Too expensive for them.

 

[Esker-pades]

Update:
Pipes and nuclear flask freight services ran this week.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Too expensive for them.

Might still have made sense to do it on lines like the Far North like the Welsh have done with the Conwy Valley. Otherwise they are effectively paying bus operators to abstract from the railway.

 

[Altnabreac]

Might still have made sense to do it on lines like the Far North like the Welsh have done with the Conwy Valley. Otherwise they are effectively paying bus operators to abstract from the railway.

The bus service from Inverness to Wick is run commercially I believe.

 

[Esker-pades]

The bus service from Inverness to Wick is run commercially I believe.

It is. Hence why the service level was cut to 3 journeys a day by Stagecoach because they decided it wasn't economically viable.

 

[adrock1976]

Indeed there are people like you which is why Wick is not down to zero passengers despite being a slower route by train.

Broadly there are probably five different types of people travelling from Wick:

• Train based tourists who are there because it is the end of the train line and because the train journey is part of the experience. Speed improvements will not really grow this group.
• Cost conscious Scottish pensioners who can travel free on the bus. Speed based improvements will not grow this group even if the journey time becomes less than the bus. A change to the concession card arrangement could grow ridership but wouldn't grow revenue and indeed would probably harm revenue.
  
• Reliability focused, cost neutral travellers. Especially those in Caithness attending business / hospital appointments in Inverness. Cost and Speed are less important to these travellers than mode reliability. Anecdotally lots of these travellers used to get the train but now often prefer to drive as perceived unreliability of the service has increased. Speed improvements are less important to this group than things like Lentran Loop / Kinbrace loop / resignalling etc which partially increase speed but mainly reduce service disruption
• Speed conscious, mode neutral travellers. Speed based improvements will only grow this group if the speed is significantly improved from Wick. As Thurso is more marginal for Bus vs Train, improvements that decrease journey time from Thurso are more likely to increase revenue from this group. Georgemas Chord basically will do a better job than a Wick shuttle.
• Finally there are those who slightly prefer the train but not at a significant time penalty versus the bus. They will get the bus to save an hour but might get the train if the time penalty were more like 30 minutes. This is the only group whose ridership would be increased by a Wick shuttle on its own. Given the suggested £500,000 pa cost of a Wick Shuttle and the relatively small number of people likely to be in this group it seems unlikely to me that it would generate any sort of decent business case.

I would add a sixth type to the above:

• Passengers who are travelling with well behaved dogs/pets as Scottish Citylink do not normally accept them to travel (medium size and above). The train would win regardless of journey time.

 

[lancastrian]

Cost conscious Scottish pensioners who can travel free on the bus. Speed based improvements will not grow this group even if the journey time becomes less than the bus. A change to the concession card arrangement could grow ridership but wouldn't grow revenue and indeed would probably harm revenue.

I also have a bus pass, but even then I would still prefer the train for all the reasons I stated. I will be visiting Moray again over Christmas - New Year for 17 days, I will be travelling from Elgin to Inverness by train, and possibly Elgin to Aberdeen by train. Even though I have a car. My wife and I have a 2 for 1 railcard. We will be visiting again September 2019. On that visit we plan to visit Dunrobin Castle, and we will use the train for that again using our Railcard. Where I live in Greater Manchester I still use the train for trips to Manchester, rather than the car or bus. Simply because it is quicker than both, no car parking to worry about, and that is despite having a Free Bus Pass.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

General question... A few people here have stated that the Lentran loop would improve journey times. Why? I can see that, by giving a passing place, it could allow a much more clockface timetable south of Tain, and that may improve reliability too. But it's not going to improve linespeeds is it? So why would it improve journey times?

 

[Steamysandy]

General question... A few people here have stated that the Lentran loop would improve journey times. Why? I can see that, by giving a passing place, it could allow a much more clockface timetable south of Tain, and that may improve reliability too. But it's not going to improve linespeeds is it? So why would it improve journey times?

It would break up a long single track section and give an additionally crossing point thus letting trains move more frequently and speeding up services by cutting waiting times on the relevant sectio

 

[70014IronDuke]

It would break up a long single track section and give an additionally crossing point thus letting trains move more frequently and speeding up services by cutting waiting times on the relevant sectio

In the busiest section of the entire route, where any significant delay is likely to have a disproportionate knock-on effect on other services.

 

[class26]

In the busiest section of the entire route, where any significant delay is likely to have a disproportionate knock-on effect on other services.

and perhaps as it will improve efficiency it will enable less recovery time in the timetable ?

 

[70014IronDuke]

and perhaps as it will improve efficiency it will enable less recovery time in the timetable ?

Well, maybe, but my knowledge of the route is far too rudimentary to say. I suspect that to get the Lentran loop project signed off that there will have to be some definite service improvements promised - which may kind of negate the operational advantages somewhat of the new loop, at least at peak times - IYSWIM.

 

[najaB]

I suspect that to get the Lentran loop project signed off that there will have to be some definite service improvements promised...

It stands on its own feet for resiliency - as it stands today a five or six minute delay in a southbound service reaching Dingwall in the morning can cause an hour's delay to the last services of the day.

 

[adrock1976]

Regarding the suggestions of closing the likes of Kildonan, Scotscalder, Culrain, Georgemas Junction, with the exception of George's Junction could the other lightly used stations be downgraded to Summer Only, similar to Dunrobin Castle and Falls of Cruachan (Oban branch)?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Regarding the suggestions of closing the likes of Kildonan, Scotscalder, Culrain, Georgemas Junction, with the exception of George's Junction could the other lightly used stations be downgraded to Summer Only, similar to Dunrobin Castle and Falls of Cruachan (Oban branch)?

I'm not sure what the point would be - as request stops, if nobody wants on/off the train doesn't stop.

Indeed, I really can't understand why there's that morning southbound express. Why not keep it consistent?

 

[najaB]

I'm not sure what the point would be - as request stops, if nobody wants on/off the train doesn't stop.

If there isn't a level crossing adjacent then it can save a couple of minutes not having so slow from linespeed to a crawling pace and back up again.

 

[TheManOnThe172]

Back to the fundamental economics ...

Unless Dounreay deals a trump card to the line, then the economics north of Tain do seem horribly bad, especially when road transport is superior on speed, and with Wick airport offering direct flights to Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

But I still find myself twitchy about the idea of closure. And it comes down to a problem that is much broader than railways: distrust of any revenue-supported service that is proposed to replace expensive physical infrastructure.

In many cases, the proposed replacement will be unarguably better value than the existing provision. It may even provide a better absolute standard of service. BUT many of us oppose such changes because replacements are so much more vulnerable to slow death.

Removal of physical infrastructure is big news - even if you don't have a local paper that anyone reads, local TV will cover a closure protest and MPs will get interested. But opposition to a 15% cut (on top of the 15% cut last year) - try getting coverage for that.

The banking van that replaces the village branch can call less and less frequently. The "Rapid Response" team of community nurses that replaced the cottage hospital - their numbers can slowly cut over a few years, to the point where the response is anything but rapid. And the bus service that was initially superior to the railway that it replaced - that can thin out and perhaps eventually disappear. None will cause a ripple.

Nothing should be continued "because we promised never to change it". But we do need some way that horribly poor-value physical infrastructure can be retired in return for a meaningful promise of a long-term replacement service.

That promise needs to be something better than we have today - even the "statutory obligation" for a local authority to procure "appropriate" transport turns out to be unenforceable. Politicians are addicted these sound-good promises which turn out to be worthless - but the price we pay is that sensible savings are lost as a skeptical public refuses to believe in the long-term security of anything other than (expensive) physical infrastructure.

We need a form of legislated promise that will deliver what it appears to promise, over the long term - and which can only be reduced or substantially modified by heavyweight public enquiry or another substantial impediment to the salami-slicers. Only with such guarantees can we expect communities to consent to the closure of a poor-value railway service in return for a replacement road service.

 

[Highland37]

Beyond these forums, is anyone with any real authority suggesting any part of the line is closed?

 

[geoffk]

Where I live in Greater Manchester I still use the train for trips to Manchester, rather than the car or bus. Simply because it is quicker than both, no car parking to worry about, and that is despite having a Free Bus Pass.

But if you (like me) live in Greater Manchester, your bus pass also gives you free train travel!

Does anyone know how the Dornoch loop stacks up in terms of economic benefit, compared to, say, reopening to St. Andrews, Leven or Hawick?

 

[Highlandspring]

Beyond these forums, is anyone with any real authority suggesting any part of the line is closed?

No, it’s a forum fantasy thankfully.

 

[class26]

Beyond these forums, is anyone with any real authority suggesting any part of the line is closed?

I don`t think so at the moment but politicians are fickle, political wind changes direction very easily. If Scotland do vote for independence they will be in a far less rosy financial climate and then closure north of Tain could be tempting.
I spent my childhood in Lincolnshire the the local direct line between Lincoln and Boston stopping at my village was closed with the promise of a regular replacement bus service. That lasted little over a year.

 

[Highland37]

No, it’s a forum fantasy thankfully.

Amazing that people spend so much time and energy on a topic that no one is suggesting happens.

 

[Altnabreac]

But if you (like me) live in Greater Manchester, your bus pass also gives you free train travel!

Does anyone know how the Dornoch loop stacks up in terms of economic benefit, compared to, say, reopening to St. Andrews, Leven or Hawick?

Levenmouth has a bigger population than Caithness and you're only looking at a speeding up of service with the Dornoch link rather than a new service altogether. Building two new bridges and an entirely new alignment over 12 miles is going to be a significantly bigger cost than reopening a short branch line with a manly extant trackbed. There is no contest.

Basically Dornoch loop is never going to happen.

St Andrews is also a pretty bad reopening idea (Good service at Leuchars, no deprivation in St Andrews, junction facing the wrong way, no service to easily extend to St Andrews, no capacity at Waverley for new service specifically to St Andrews) but has a slightly better case than Dornoch.

Hawick may have a regeneration case but unlikely to make sense on passenger numbers alone. As part of a wider plan for the region it may make sense though.

 

[Highland37]

I don`t think so at the moment but politicians are fickle, political wind changes direction very easily. If Scotland do vote for independence they will be in a far less rosy financial climate and then closure north of Tain could be tempting.
I spent my childhood in Lincolnshire the the local direct line between Lincoln and Boston stopping at my village was closed with the promise of a regular replacement bus service. That lasted little over a year.

Touche!

More politics. I suggest the opposite. If you look at Norway, which has far superior infrastructure than the UK, the railways are much better in rural areas in general. Critically though, land reform and the pattern of land ownership means that "remote" areas are much more populated making the whole picture balance much more.

One of the interesting differences between most representatives in the Scottish Parliament is that there is a genuine understanding of cost and value beyond financial measures which is why there is a different approach in Scotland.

 

[najaB]

Beyond these forums, is anyone with any real authority suggesting any part of the line is closed?

Today? No. It has been suggested in the past and will, no doubt, be suggested again.

 

[najaB]

Basically Dornoch loop is never going to happen.

Never is a very long time, but it's highly unlikely.

 

[Highland37]

Today? No. It has been suggested in the past and will, no doubt, be suggested again.

I can't see anyone in any real power actually suggesting this though. There may be a few of Ruth's gang who suggest it and a few fringe MSPs in every party but whilst it is a devolved situation, I can't see any suggestions being made by those in power. That's presuming a lot though as the power grab might change where power lays.

Of course, a "think tank" might suggest it but the knowledge on these forums out weighs any think tank by several thinking tonnes.

 

[najaB]

I can't see anyone in any real power actually suggesting this though.

I could, however, see a suggestion to abandon the line if there was a severe weather event that required a large amount of cash to resolve - e.g. a major storm washed out the line north of Brora or the bridge between Culrain or Invershin got damaged.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I could, however, see a suggestion to abandon the line if there was a severe weather event that required a large amount of cash to resolve - e.g. a major storm washed out the line north of Brora or the bridge between Culrain or Invershin got damaged.

I'm not sure the Conwy Valley isn't even more of a basket case, and that's been fixed up loads of times now.