Eastern Europe Tensions

[Scotrail314209]

What is going on over in Eastern Europe, specifically Belarus and Ukraine.

I understand the US and Nato are a bit spooked about Russia moving troops near the border of Ukraine, thinking they are preparing for an invasion. Is this likely to happen as it’s been going on for months if not years now.

What has also fuelled all the trouble in Belarus? I understand there’s a migrant crisis, but I’m not sure what actually caused it.

 

[Typhoon]

What is going on over in Eastern Europe, specifically Belarus and Ukraine.

I understand the US and Nato are a bit spooked about Russia moving troops near the border of Ukraine, thinking they are preparing for an invasion. Is this likely to happen as it’s been going on for months if not years now.

What has also fuelled all the trouble in Belarus? I understand there’s a migrant crisis, but I’m not sure what actually caused it.

My understanding is that migrants from a range of middle eastern countries (eg Iraq, Syria, also Afghanistan) are flying to Belarus from a range of middle eastern airports), it is then alleged that they are being shepherded/ assisted to get to the border, then assisted by being given tear gas and wire cutters to break through the wire to get in to Poland (and thus the EU). Poland are resisting these incursions. Very simple description.

Belarus is currently the subject of sanctions after a dissident who was taken from a RyanAir(?) flight was diverted to Belarus after a supposed terrorist threat which turned out to be false.

These events may or may not be related. Putin has also expressed an interest in becoming involved, which can only end well!!!

 

[brad465]

What is going on over in Eastern Europe, specifically Belarus and Ukraine.

I understand the US and Nato are a bit spooked about Russia moving troops near the border of Ukraine, thinking they are preparing for an invasion. Is this likely to happen as it’s been going on for months if not years now.

What has also fuelled all the trouble in Belarus? I understand there’s a migrant crisis, but I’m not sure what actually caused it.

In regards to Russia and Ukraine, Putin is suffering falling popularity, or at least believes his popularity is in doubt, so is doing a classic narrative to trying to look big on the international stage to distract from matters at home. I think Russia would struggle to invade all of Ukraine, as the latter's army combined with any NATO support would make invasion difficult (I've heard the invading force needs at least a 3:1 ratio in soldiers/army strength to succeed). Crimea and the Donbass were easy to get involved in as they have a high level of Russian allegiance in the populations there, but the rest of the country doesn't hold the same.

As for the migrant crisis, the short answer to the cause is the west and Russia destabilised the Middle East through wars and intervention in internal affairs, leading to a exodus of refugees (oddly those on the far right who like to point blame/hatred towards refugees/migrants don't mention the real reason they're behaving as such). Belarus is believed to taking advantage of this to try and punish the EU for imposing sanctions on them after the hijacking incident to arrest a Belarusian journalist, and/or deter the EU imposing further sanctions.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Thanks for your replies all. I do find it ironic how this migrant crisis was really fuelled by the West by tearing up the Middle East with wars and other ways of meddling, so now they are starting to feel the effects.

I did notice how the Ukraine stuff seemed to be fuelled from the US, who seem to be getting spooked at everything the East do with relation to military.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Nov 2021 ==

Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief

Russia is building toward the ability to carry out an attack on Ukraine, the head of it's defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

www.militarytimes.com

Looks like Ukraine are starting to get seriously spooked now.

Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.

Is this something for the West to be genuinely concerned about? Or should it be passed off as military exercise. It'd be nice to go into 2022 without a war starting.