East West Rail Operations

[Vanmanyo]

So I believe it's been more or less confirmed that Chiltern will operate the first stage of EWR from Oxford to Milton Keynes, but what is the plan for when the full route opens and what stock will be used?

I'm not massively knowledgeable on the whole operating system of EWR. But will it be its own TOC or will it just be Chiltern operating the whole route to Cambridge? Or will it be split between maybe Chiltern, Cross Country or Greater Anglia? And what stock is being used? Purpose built stock, brand new maybe class 196s or just an existing fleet of TOC stock (such as Chiltern using the 165s when the route first opens, but there already isn't enough stock on the CML so this can't be a possibility surely?). Anyone with confirmed or unconfirmed answers; I would love to hear what you have to say!

 

[LLivery]

I mean, considering GBR and Labour's intent to re-nationalise (and the gen pop's popularity with rail nationalisation), I doubt TOCs will exist by the time (if) the Cambridge route is built. It'd probably be part of whichever GBR region or sector it makes the most sense to be part of.

For fleet, I'd guess a modern (hopefully EMU) Express Sprinter and/or Outer Suburban style? Depending on the route.

 

[D365]

The final route announcement for the Cambridge route hasn't even taken place yet! I'd say this question is a touch premature - come back to it in a month or two, earliest.

 

[Vanmanyo]

I mean, considering GBR and Labour's intent to re-nationalise (and the gen pop's popularity with rail nationalisation), I doubt TOCs will exist by the time (if) the Cambridge route is built. It'd probably be part of whichever GBR region or sector it makes the most sense to be part of.

For fleet, I'd guess a modern (hopefully EMU) Express Sprinter and/or Outer Suburban style? Depending on the route.

The route will be diesel only (ridiculous btw) so it'll have to be some bi-mode maybe battery train. Porterbrook have a hydrogen train that can currently be leased for operations so maybe that could be in question too.

 

[D365]

Porterbrook have a hydrogen train that can currently be leased for operations so maybe that could be in question too.

London cast-offs!

 

[JonathanH]

Porterbrook have a hydrogen train that can currently be leased for operations so maybe that could be in question too.

Again it is too far away to contemplate rolling stock. Hydrogen powered trains have been largely debunked as a concept.

Is Hydrogen dead as a power source for trains?

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/hydrogen-class-614-it-moves.235865/ Hydrogen is dead in railways, a fad of the oil & gas industry. The far moved advanced in service trains in Germany have been withdrawn due to the painful operating costs & prohibitive costs of...

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[Vanmanyo]

Again it is too far away to contemplate rolling stock. Hydrogen powered trains have been largely debunked as a concept.

Is Hydrogen dead as a power source for trains?

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/hydrogen-class-614-it-moves.235865/ Hydrogen is dead in railways, a fad of the oil & gas industry. The far moved advanced in service trains in Germany have been withdrawn due to the painful operating costs & prohibitive costs of...

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I mean, going off topic here, it's an interesting concept that still needs time for better technology, even in Germany there's things to improve on to make them better, but whether that's worth it is the question. The class 799 has had successful test runs and Porterbrook are currently waiting for an operator. It's featured at many previous RailLive events but the maintenance for it would be extensive and expensive (plus there's only one or two units built I believe). It's just an idea for what EWR could use. I hope they get some brand new battery units instead of a converted one.

 

[JonathanH]

It's just an idea for what EWR could use.

It is, but where near the EWR line could a plant generating 'green' hydrogen be set up? If it is just going to be generated from gas in the North East, and transported by road tanker to Banbury, it somewhat loses its credentials.

 

[Elecman]

I would hope any EWR units would be maintained at Bletchley rather than Banbury even if on an agency basis

 

[snowball]

The route will be diesel only (ridiculous btw) so it'll have to be some bi-mode maybe battery train. Porterbrook have a hydrogen train that can currently be leased for operations so maybe that could be in question too.

I think it extremely unlikely that EWR will still be unelectrified by the time (and if) the Bedford-Cambridge link is built.

 

[zwk500]

So I believe it's been more or less confirmed that Chiltern will operate the first stage of EWR from Oxford to Milton Keynes, but what is the plan for when the full route opens and what stock will be used?

I'm not massively knowledgeable on the whole operating system of EWR. But will it be its own TOC or will it just be Chiltern operating the whole route to Cambridge? Or will it be split between maybe Chiltern, Cross Country or Greater Anglia? And what stock is being used? Purpose built stock, brand new maybe class 196s or just an existing fleet of TOC stock (such as Chiltern using the 165s when the route first opens, but there already isn't enough stock on the CML so this can't be a possibility surely?). Anyone with confirmed or unconfirmed answers; I would love to hear what you have to say!

If TOCs still exist it'll probably stay with Chiltern, transferring it to another wouldn't make sense. It's going to use 3-Car DMUs (platforms long enough for 4-car), I'd guess new build if the order book is still open at that point.

I think it extremely unlikely that EWR will still be unelectrified by the time (and if) the Bedford-Cambridge link is built.

I think it is extremely unlikely they will electrify the line in the next 20 years, although it's very possible Bedford-Cambridge takes that long to get built.

 

[D365]

The class 799 has had successful test runs and Porterbrook are currently waiting for an operator.

These days, the Class 799s seem to find more use as board rooms on wheels than anything else.

 

[zwk500]

These days, the Class 799s seem to find more use as board rooms on wheels than anything else.

Keeping executives away from anything they might ruin by touching it is quite a useful service

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I also wonder what will happen to the X5 bus between Oxford and Bedford when EWR opens. Will the X5 reduce itself in frequency, cut back to operating in some sections (or even withdrawn) as a result of the new train line from Oxford to Milton Keynes?

 

[Vanmanyo]

I also wonder what will happen to the X5 bus between Oxford and Bedford when EWR opens. Will the X5 reduce itself in frequency, cut back to operating in some sections (or even withdrawn) as a result of the new train line from Oxford to Milton Keynes?

Buses usually aren't affected loads, I means there's loads of buses near me which do virtually same routes as trains. It's more there to serve local smaller neighbourhoods that aren't by the trains.

 

[zwk500]

Buses usually aren't affected loads, I means there's loads of buses near me which do virtually same routes as trains. It's more there to serve local smaller neighbourhoods that aren't by the trains.

The X5 is a fast, express bus. It serve a largely similar purpose to that which the railway is inteded to serve, but...

I also wonder what will happen to the X5 bus between Oxford and Bedford when EWR opens. Will the X5 reduce itself in frequency, cut back to operating in some sections (or even withdrawn) as a result of the new train line from Oxford to Milton Keynes?

I expect it will continue. Buckingham to Oxford and MK is not an insignificant flow and the bus will compete reasonably well against railheading if you can't drive. Equally MK-Bedford was competitive for the X5 with the Marston vale as it's completely non-stop and the X5 serves the Centre:MK and Coachway as well as Bedford bus station being more convenient for the town than the rail station. The times won't be bad against having to hop down to Bletchley and change. Ticket prices will be crucial though. Of course, EWR hasn't reached St neots or cambridge yet so the X5 may well continue to serve this section for many years.

@Bletchleyite may be able to provide more up to date info on the X5 than me, though.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

The X5 is a fast, express bus. It serve a largely similar purpose to that which the railway is inteded to serve, but...

I expect it will continue. Buckingham to Oxford and MK is not an insignificant flow and the bus will compete reasonably well against railheading if you can't drive. Equally MK-Bedford was competitive for the X5 with the Marston vale as it's completely non-stop and the X5 serves the Centre:MK and Coachway as well as Bedford bus station being more convenient for the town than the rail station. The times won't be bad against having to hop down to Bletchley and change. Ticket prices will be crucial though. Of course, EWR hasn't reached St neots or cambridge yet so the X5 may well continue to serve this section for many years.

@Bletchleyite may be able to provide more up to date info on the X5 than me, though.

Yeah sounds about right. I suspect what may happen is that the X5 is cut back to run between Milton Keynes & Bedford only, with Bicester to Milton Keynes served as part of an extended S5 from Oxford. (S5 currently is Oxford to Bicester)

 

[D365]

Yeah sounds about right. I suspect what may happen is that the X5 is cut back to run between Milton Keynes & Bedford only, with Bicester to Milton Keynes served as part of an extended S5 from Oxford. (S5 currently is Oxford to Bicester)

Why would it stop serving St Neots and Cambridge anytime soon?

 

[William3000]

Why would it stop serving St Neots and Cambridge anytime soon?

It stopped a couple of years ago

 

[Vanmanyo]

It stopped a couple of years ago

Clearly they thought it was unprofitable at the time. I wonder if they'll bring it back up to Cambridge and St Neots to compete with the railway (when that opens)

 

[D365]

My mistake. The bus stop signs are still up along the A1. I wonder what the few former morning users are doing now for their travel.

 

[JonathanH]

It stopped a couple of years ago

The X5 was split at Bedford, but the 905 is the same route east of there - https://bustimes.org/services/905-st-neots-bedford

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Why would it stop serving St Neots and Cambridge anytime soon?

Hasn't gone there since 2020. The section between Bedford and Cambridge is now the 905

 

[A0]

The X5 is a fast, express bus. It serve a largely similar purpose to that which the railway is inteded to serve, but...

I expect it will continue. Buckingham to Oxford and MK is not an insignificant flow and the bus will compete reasonably well against railheading if you can't drive. Equally MK-Bedford was competitive for the X5 with the Marston vale as it's completely non-stop and the X5 serves the Centre:MK and Coachway as well as Bedford bus station being more convenient for the town than the rail station. The times won't be bad against having to hop down to Bletchley and change. Ticket prices will be crucial though. Of course, EWR hasn't reached St neots or cambridge yet so the X5 may well continue to serve this section for many years.

@Bletchleyite may be able to provide more up to date info on the X5 than me, though.

I'm not so sure - look at what happened in the Borders where the X95 used to be Edinburgh - Galashiels - Carlisle - what used to be a virtually hourly service is now much reduced.

 

[zwk500]

=

I'm not so sure - look at what happened in the Borders where the X95 used to be Edinburgh - Galashiels - Carlisle - what used to be a virtually hourly service is now much reduced.

The distances and populations involved are substantially different in the outer commuter belt and Scottish borders

 

[A0]

=

The distances and populations involved are substantially different in the outer commuter belt and Scottish borders

I don't disagree - but I think the rail link will much reduce the X5 usage between MK and Oxford and the only additional place that the X5 serves which the rail line won't is Buckingham - and that's not that significant.

Between MK and Bedford, I'm inclined to agree with your view that will be OK, not least because from Central MK to Bedford will need a change at Bletchley and probably be time neutral.

Bedford - Cambridge - who knows ? If the rail line crosses the ECML at or near Tempsford and takes in Cambourne, then I think the 905 between Bedford and Cambridge will struggle. There will end up being something in place between St Neots and Bedford - but take the standard of service between Sandy or Biggleswade and Bedford as the likely frequency.

 

[zwk500]

I don't disagree - but I think the rail link will much reduce the X5 usage between MK and Oxford and the only additional place that the X5 serves which the rail line won't is Buckingham - and that's not that significant.

I think Buckingham will retain bus links to both MK and Bicester - and in all likelihood Oxford. However I agree with you it could be downgraded a bit and run less 'express' - but a direct bus that calls at the Shopping centre and Coachway will be attractive against railheading to Winslow (or driving and paying for the parking).

Between MK and Bedford, I'm inclined to agree with your view that will be OK, not least because from Central MK to Bedford will need a change at Bletchley and probably be time neutral.

It'll be close in time, although a lot depends on which MV option is eventually chose. It's genuinely hard for me to guess which way they'll go - the cheap option will be attractive because it's cheap, the expensive option will be attractive because it solves a number of operational problems. I understand a member on here actually has the report on his desk - I'm hoping for an update soon!

Bedford - Cambridge - who knows ? If the rail line crosses the ECML at or near Tempsford and takes in Cambourne, then I think the 905 between Bedford and Cambridge will struggle. There will end up being something in place between St Neots and Bedford - but take the standard of service between Sandy or Biggleswade and Bedford as the likely frequency.

Once the line is built is a total unknown.

 

[A0]

I think Buckingham will retain bus links to both MK and Bicester - and in all likelihood Oxford. However I agree with you it could be downgraded a bit and run less 'express' - but a direct bus that calls at the Shopping centre and Coachway will be attractive against railheading to Winslow (or driving and paying for the parking).

I think Bicester - MK via Buckingham will survive, though it may also get a bit of a re-route to include places like Deanshanger who currently get a very sparse service, if anything, because rerouting a local bus rather than a long distance coach service is much easier to justify.

Beyond Bicester, I'm not so sure - there is already a regular Bicester - Oxford bus service, the S5 runs 3 buses an hour. The problem beyond Bicester is you're at the mercy of the A34 which for timekeeping isn't great and it could easily kill a reliable service between Bicester and MK by arriving late in Bicester.

Buckingham might use Winslow for railheading into Oxford as that will be a quicker and more reliable journey than a bus or coach will be - for MK, I agree a regular bus will win over going to Winslow for the train.

Once the line is built is a total unknown.

Well, yes. But there is meant to be an announcement "soon" - that said, I suspect it'll be 10 years before it's built and running.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The X5 is a fast, express bus. It serve a largely similar purpose to that which the railway is inteded to serve, but...

I expect it will continue. Buckingham to Oxford and MK is not an insignificant flow and the bus will compete reasonably well against railheading if you can't drive. Equally MK-Bedford was competitive for the X5 with the Marston vale as it's completely non-stop and the X5 serves the Centre:MK and Coachway as well as Bedford bus station being more convenient for the town than the rail station. The times won't be bad against having to hop down to Bletchley and change. Ticket prices will be crucial though. Of course, EWR hasn't reached St neots or cambridge yet so the X5 may well continue to serve this section for many years.

@Bletchleyite may be able to provide more up to date info on the X5 than me, though.

It's back down to hourly with some peak half hourly extras and considerably downgraded, using unbranded double decker buses in standard Stagecoach fitout rather than the fancy coaches.

I'm not quite sure what will happen to it. There are other MK-Buckingham services (e.g. the Arriva X60) including evening services, and Buckingham has very high car ownership, it's quite posh. However I'd consider it likely, unless the £2 fare scheme became permanent or EWR doesn't go to MKC, that the through demand will be basically wiped out by the railway.

My guess would be this, but it is a guess:
- S5 Bicester to Oxford will be extended to Buckingham from Bicester once an hour, or maybe 2 hourly with no evening service
- Stagecoach will operate an hourly fast MK to Bedford as part of something else, possibly making the MK1 (the replacement for the Luton Airport 99) into a circular rather than a V shaped service as it presently is - the Marston Vale serves this market very poorly and won't ever serve it well unless a Denbigh Hall Chord is built which much as I strongly advocate it is unlikely
- 905 Bedford-Cambridge will stay as is, or will be extended back to MK as part of the above
- Stagecoach will not serve Buckingham-MK at all, with this left to Arriva

Another possibility is that they do consider Buckingham-MK worth serving on its own, and so extend the S5 back to MK (which would retain a through Oxford service but a fair bit slower than the X5) and the 905 as well (or something else relevant that they operate from Bedford depot, or even a standalone shuttle) for the MK-Bedford section.

I'd be quite surprised if it continued as a through route, though.

 

[A0]

It's back down to hourly with some peak half hourly extras and considerably downgraded, using unbranded double decker buses in standard Stagecoach fitout rather than the fancy coaches.

I'm not quite sure what will happen to it. There are other MK-Buckingham services (e.g. the Arriva X60) including evening services, and Buckingham has very high car ownership, it's quite posh. However I'd consider it likely, unless the £2 fare scheme became permanent or EWR doesn't go to MKC, that the through demand will be basically wiped out by the railway.

My guess would be this, but it is a guess:
- S5 Bicester to Oxford will be extended to Buckingham from Bicester once an hour, or maybe 2 hourly with no evening service
- Stagecoach will operate an hourly fast MK to Bedford as part of something else, possibly making the MK1 (the replacement for the Luton Airport 99) into a circular rather than a V shaped service as it presently is - the Marston Vale serves this market very poorly and won't ever serve it well unless a Denbigh Hall Chord is built which much as I strongly advocate it is unlikely
- 905 Bedford-Cambridge will stay as is, or will be extended back to MK as part of the above
- Stagecoach will not serve Buckingham-MK at all, with this left to Arriva

Another possibility is that they do consider Buckingham-MK worth serving on its own, and so extend the S5 back to MK (which would retain a through Oxford service but a fair bit slower than the X5) and the 905 as well (or something else relevant that they operate from Bedford depot, or even a standalone shuttle) for the MK-Bedford section.

I'd be quite surprised if it continued as a through route, though.

Well - EWR *will* go to MKC at least from Oxford and I suspect the demand on the X5 is primarily between those two points. It's operationally convenient for Stagecoach to run it from Bedford as that's where their depot is.

How much demand there is from points west of MK to points east of MK is debateable - not much I suspect. Do people really want or need to travel from Bicester or Buckingham to Bedford ? It's not like there's much at Bedford, so unless they're occasionally going there to visit family / friends or watch the rugby, there probably isn't the demand.

Bedford - MK by rail will always struggle a bit for a journey time via the Marston Vale running it up to Milton Keynes Central. The coach takes a more 'direct' route and the A422 is reasonably free flowing even at peak times.

How long Arriva stick with their Buckingham service may depend on how long Arriva stick with their MK operations in general. I suspect Stagecoach would have been interested in those when MK Metro sold out back in the mid '00s, but wouldn't have got it past the competition authorities at the time. Now, nearly 20 years later, I suspect that might not be the problem it was then.