East-West Rail (EWR) countdown to entry into service

[150219]

There really doesn't seem to be a hurry on passenger openings. This week has been very poor for learning runs.

There are no scheduled Chiltern runs at all today on the line, there was only one return run yesterday (a 165). The shadow service shows as cancelled for next week.

Plenty of training for the freight (daily working), including today.

I'm not sure there's any more freight training than passenger, including today. E.g., the light loco move (which I'm guessing is what you mean) hasn't operated this morning.

 

[Hughby]

To an outsider the impression is that there is absolutely no sense of urgency/eagerness to get the new service running. In almost any other industry there would be huge pressure to make money out of the investment made. How much longer must we wait?

 

[fishwomp]

To an outsider the impression is that there is absolutely no sense of urgency/eagerness to get the new service running. In almost any other industry there would be huge pressure to make money out of the investment made. How much longer must we wait?

It must be a racing certainty that this line will be profitable. I wonder if this is the treasury (pays the outgoing) and the department (receives the income) issue that Modern Railways has mentioned a few times. Basically if you want to bring in more money but spend money to do so (but profitably) .. it won't pass the current logic.

Other than complaining about Bicester's level crossing, am not sure if any politicians have spoken up yet.

 

[Wyrleybart]

It must be a racing certainty that this line will be profitable. I wonder if this is the treasury (pays the outgoing) and the department (receives the income) issue that Modern Railways has mentioned a few times. Basically if you want to bring in more money but spend money to do so (but profitably) .. it won't pass the current logic.

Other than complaining about Bicester's level crossing, am not sure if any politicians have spoken up yet.

I think it depends what accountants software is used. Back in the olden days of BR, everything had to make an 8% return to be remotely profitable and justify any investment, and that was using existing infrastructure as a base. With EWR there is millions of pounds of investment oops costs as it is railway, but it depends how it is lumped in.

The question to me is how the receipts are justified, Presume Chiltern will operate the class 196s on the service and all the revenue will go to DfT. Will a small number of LNR passengers ride between Bletchley and Milton Keynes ?

 

[zwk500]

It must be a racing certainty that this line will be profitable.

Far from a Racing Certainty, the 2018 Document 'The Case for East West Rail' https://assets.publishing.service.g...or-east-west-rail-western-section-phase-2.pdf has the following projections:

The fact it wasn't easy to find the Business Case on a google search was instructive in the first place!

Given these numbers were calculated pre-COVID (I haven't seen any refreshed numbers published although I'm 99% certain somebody will have refreshed them for the DfT) and the world has changed considerably since then, the lower-end BCR looks rather close to 1.0

I happen to think that it *will* be very successful, as new lines naturally underestimate demand as there's little data to make projections on. But the fact that there's been a lot of 'value-engineering' (cost-cutting) such as dropping Electrification and no bi-di on the project should indicate it was (and is) not a foregone conclusion about being a roaring success. To repeat (for fear anybody accuses me of doom-saying) I think it will be very successful, and that hopefully the modelling used for new lines will be able to incorporate the results into future appraisals.

I wonder if this is the treasury (pays the outgoing) and the department (receives the income) issue that Modern Railways has mentioned a few times.

The outgoings are still allocated to the DfT's budget, so it's in the DfT's interest to start generating the income as fast as possible.

Basically if you want to bring in more money but spend money to do so (but profitably) .. it won't pass the current logic.

Spending money to bring in more money is the basis behind all capital spending. If your statement is correct, nothing would be being built at all.

 

[Joey Beauchamp]

is there any reason why Chiltern haven't introduced a Bicester Village to Bletchley (upper) shuttle? They could do that hourly with one unit. Admittedly, it wouldn't be that useful, but I suspect even the Winslow traffic would make it worthwhile.

When will fares be announced? My journey to Oxford will still be quicker via Coventry, but I'm assuming cheaper via MK, especially as it should be inside the network railcard boundary.

 

[CarltonA]

When will fares be announced? My journey to Oxford will still be quicker via Coventry, but I'm assuming cheaper via MK, especially as it should be inside the network railcard boundary.

That's interesting, has it not been officially announced that the route will be in the Network Railcard area?

 

[E6007]

Had a presentation from a Chiltern Stakeholder Executive on Wednesday. Apparently fitting out of Winslow station is holding up service introduction

 

[fishwomp]

I happen to think that it *will* be very successful, as new lines naturally underestimate demand as there's little data to make projections on. But the fact that there's been a lot of 'value-engineering' (cost-cutting) such as dropping Electrification and no bi-di on the project should indicate it was (and is) not a foregone conclusion about being a roaring success. To repeat (for fear anybody accuses me of doom-saying) I think it will be very successful, and that hopefully the modelling used for new lines will be able to incorporate the results into future appraisals.

I think it'll be hugely successful too. There is a ton of traffic on the A34/A41 - and the road is pretty bad. The peak flows on A34 to/from Oxford from Bicester / Milton Keynes are frequently gnarled by traffic.

The outgoings are still allocated to the DfT's budget, so it's in the DfT's interest to start generating the income as fast as possible.

I'd have to look it up in some old editions of Modern Railways.

It's basically an issue in the operating contracts brought in during COVID - treasury limited what was spent (whether that was paid directly or just watching DfT's cheques paid..), and DfT took the revenue benefit.

Or perhaps it was the opposite: DfT didn't get the money - the treasury did, but DfT paid for the service and got no more money to do so.. There was similar (reverse) disconnect in road fines - the cost of traffic cameras is borne by the police, the money for the fines taken by the treasury.

Either way, the benefit and the cost were in different places - and that breaks things.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Had a presentation from a Chiltern Stakeholder Executive on Wednesday. Apparently fitting out of Winslow station is holding up service introduction

Why not start without calling there?

 

[67018]

I think it'll be hugely successful too. There is a ton of traffic on the A34/A41 - and the road is pretty bad. The peak flows on A34 to/from Oxford from Bicester / Milton Keynes are frequently gnarled by traffic.

I also think it'll be successful, but think the A34/A41 traffic is a red herring. The existing Bicester Village-Oxford service already runs parallel so you'd expect that most of the traffic that was going to transfter to rail would already have done so in the 10 years since the upgraded line opened. It's more likely that the railway will unlock demand currently suppressed by the inadequate roads between MK and Bicester - not to mention presumably a lot of house building at Winslow.

 

[BlueLeanie]

Why not start without calling there?

Well, exactly. Run non-stop between Bicester Village and Milton Keynes until Upper Bletchley and Winslow are ready.

I also think it'll be successful, but think the A34/A41 traffic is a red herring. The existing Bicester Village-Oxford service already runs parallel so you'd expect that most of the traffic that was going to transfter to rail would already have done so in the 10 years since the upgraded line opened. It's more likely that the railway will unlock demand currently suppressed by the inadequate roads between MK and Bicester - not to mention presumably a lot of house building at Winslow.

The current service runs every 30 minutes and takes about 15 minutes. The buses run every 15 minutes (peak) and take 35 minutes (ahem). So at the moment, walk to the bus-stop or station, and you'll be in Bicester in around 45 minutes or 50 minutes respectively.

I'm not sure of the exact timing of the trains, but once it opens, it'll be consistently walk to the station and be in Bicester Village in 30 minutes or less. Potentially boarding the bus that left Oxford 90 minutes ago for the final mile home.

 

[fishwomp]

I also think it'll be successful, but think the A34/A41 traffic is a red herring. The existing Bicester Village-Oxford service already runs parallel so you'd expect that most of the traffic that was going to transfter to rail would already have done so in the 10 years since the upgraded line opened.

Err, no, it's not. No-one coming from Milton Keynes would park in Bicester to get to Oxford.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Err, no, it's not. No-one coming from Milton Keynes would park in Bicester to get to Oxford.

Indeed, Peartree park and ride is where it parks if it doesn't drive all the way in or go on the X5.

 

[150219]

Why not start without calling there?

Nothing has changed since earlier posts (e.g., #305 onwards) for the reason why services are not in place now.

I'm sure once there is a significant development, it will be in the public domain.

 

[67018]

Err, no, it's not. No-one coming from Milton Keynes would park in Bicester to get to Oxford.

Indeed. I just don't think it'll make any discernible difference to the A34 traffic - any impact is more likely to be felt on the A421. And I suspect that the rail usage will be more from additional journeys being generated than transfer from road.

 

[Zomboid]

In the morning there is often a southbound queue on the M40 for the A34 junction, and a similar westbound queue on the A43 at the M40 junction. I imagine a proportion of that is MK to Oxford traffic, some of which might change to rail.

Some might be from Buckingham, and that might head to Winslow instead - almost everyone heading for the city centre in Oxford will have to transfer to public transport at some point, so could choose to do so earlier.

But most of the A34 traffic horror show is people not going to Oxford and will probably continue to sit in the jams.

 

[DavidGrain]

Had a presentation from a Chiltern Stakeholder Executive on Wednesday. Apparently fitting out of Winslow station is holding up service introduction

If it was a young man then likely it is the one I met a couple of weeks ago at a meeting in Kidderminster. I was starting to wonder about Winslow as there was a report not long ago about a local councillor visiting the station and finding that it still needed fitting out.

 

[Wyrleybart]

In the morning there is often a southbound queue on the M40 for the A34 junction, and a similar westbound queue on the A43 at the M40 junction. I imagine a proportion of that is MK to Oxford traffic, some of which might change to rail.

Some might be from Buckingham, and that might head to Winslow instead - almost everyone heading for the city centre in Oxford will have to transfer to public transport at some point, so could choose to do so earlier.

But most of the A34 traffic horror show is people not going to Oxford and will probably continue to sit in the jams.

On the few occasions I have passed that way there always seems to be a queue off the M40 southbound to get onto the A34, and very probably towards the city too. I am guessing that stretch of the A34 is really really busy for longer distance traffic from the Midlands to the Sarum area and vice versa.

 

[Hughby]

Had a presentation from a Chiltern Stakeholder Executive on Wednesday. Apparently fitting out of Winslow station is holding up service introduction

If that is so then it is a very weak excuse and demonstrates the lack of urgency/eagerness I mentioned.

 

[Falcon1200]

I imagine a proportion of that is MK to Oxford traffic, some of which might change to rail.

Depending maybe on where they are going to in Oxford! A major traffic draw, and cause of congestion (my Mum lives on a road leading to it!) is the massive JR Hospital, which Oxford station is remote from (although Oxford Parkway has a direct bus to the hospital).

 

[Zomboid]

That's true of everywhere of course.

Oxford is blessed with a pretty good bus network.

 

[fishwomp]

Indeed. I just don't think it'll make any discernible difference to the A34 traffic - any impact is more likely to be felt on the A421. And I suspect that the rail usage will be more from additional journeys being generated than transfer from road.

I agree. I think it will fill the trains, but it won't empty the road.

 

[67018]

On the few occasions I have passed that way there always seems to be a queue off the M40 southbound to get onto the A34, and very probably towards the city too. I am guessing that stretch of the A34 is really really busy for longer distance traffic from the Midlands to the Sarum area and vice versa.

Absolutely this. A very large amount of traffic from the Midlands/M1 goes this way towards Southampton docks, including a constant stream of lorries. Is anyone seriously looking at opportunities to shift some of that onto rail? - that really would make a difference.

Getting a bit more on topic, what about potential traffic increases as a result of the start of services? For example is there a risk that Winslow becoming a parkway for Buckingham causes additional congestion that way?

 

[BlueLeanie]

Absolutely this. A very large amount of traffic from the Midlands/M1 goes this way towards Southampton docks, including a constant stream of lorries. Is anyone seriously looking at opportunities to shift some of that onto rail? - that really would make a difference.

Getting a bit more on topic, what about potential traffic increases as a result of the start of services? For example is there a risk that Winslow becoming a parkway for Buckingham causes additional congestion that way?

That's easy to fix. Introduce a CPZ in Winslow price the car parking at a high enough rate.

 

[E6007]

If that is so then it is a very weak excuse and demonstrates the lack of urgency/eagerness I mentioned.

The lack of urgency was at DfT in the time taken to appoint Chiltern as operator. Only then could they start to recruit staff etc as well do the physical fit out.

While Bletchley High Level needed such work, West Midlands Trains operates the whole station. Winslow is the only new one.

 

[sqwizz]

37901 Europhoenix at Newton Longville today, for lack of anything else noteworthy going on

 

[Bletchleyite]

Saw that going north through MKC a bit later. It made a right racket!

 

[DarloRich]

37901 Europhoenix at Newton Longville today, for lack of anything else noteworthy going on

that is what i heard! thanks for the info

 

[Sun Chariot]

37901 Europhoenix at Newton Longville today, for lack of anything else noteworthy going onView attachment 181644

Great capture Memories of late 1980s on the Calvert to Avonmouth bin-liner.